2011 Census: Population and Household Estimates for Wales, March 2011

• On census night the population in Wales was 3.06 million. This was the largest the population had ever been.

• There were 1.50 million men and 1.56 million women in Wales.

• The population grew by 153,300 in the 10 years since the last census, rising from 2.9 million in 2001, an increase of 5.3%. This was the largest growth in the population, between censuses, since 1921. In 1911, there were 2.4 million people, so for every 4 people in Wales in 1911, there were 5 in 2011.

• While the difference between births and deaths led to a small increase in the population, migration accounted for over 90% of the population increase between 2001 and 2011. This includes both international migration and migration from elsewhere within the UK.

• The median age of the population in Wales was 41. For men, the median age was 40 and for women it was 42. This was two years greater than the median age of 39 across England and Wales in 2011. In 1911, the median age across England and Wales was 25.

• The percentage of the population in Wales aged 65 and over was the highest seen in any census at over 18%, a total of 563,000 people. This was an increase of 57,000 people in this age category since 2001, and an increase of 450,000 since 1911 when there were 113,000 people aged 65 and over.

• There were 25,000 residents in Wales aged 90 and over in 2011, compared with 19,000 in 2001 and 700 in 1911.

• In 2011, there were 178,000 children under five in Wales, 11,000 more than in 2001.

• In Wales the average population density was 148 residents per square kilometre, lower than any region in England. The most densely populated unitary authority was Cardiff, which was more than three times as densely populated as the next most densely populated unitary authority, Newport. The population density of Cardiff is similar to that of Newcastle upon Tyne in the North East.

• There were 1.3 million households in Wales on census night. The average household size was 2.3 residents per household in 2011. In 1911, households in England and Wales had an average of 4.3 residents, almost double the current total.

• All areas of Wales saw population growth between 2001 and 2011 except Blaenau Gwent, which saw a small decline.

• The unitary authorities with the largest percentage growth in population were Cardiff (12%), Pembrokeshire (8%), and Bridgend (8 %).

This bulletin is the first release of statistics from the 2011 Census. It describes the usually resident population of Wales by age and sex, and also provides information on topics such as the number of households and population density.

About the Census

The census has collected information about the population every 10 years since 1801 (except in 1941). The latest census in England and Wales took place on 27 March 2011.

Census statistics describe the characteristics of an area, such as how many men and women there are and their ages. The statistics are used to understand similarities and differences in the populations’ characteristics locally, regionally and nationally. This information underpins the allocation of billions of pounds of public money to provide services like education, transport and health. Decisions are taken every day using census statistics. These are as local as the number of car parking spaces needed at supermarkets, to wider programmes, for example, where to target government training schemes. The numbers of school spaces, houses, care homes, or the development of traffic management systems or funding for local and unitary authorities, are all influenced by the census.

The 2011 Census achieved its overall target response rate of 94% of the usually resident population of England and Wales, and over 80% in all local and unitary authorities. The population estimate for England and Wales of 56.1 million is estimated with 95% confidence to be accurate to within +/- 85,000 (0.15%).

The 2011 Census conducted by ONS produced an estimate of the total population of England and Wales. A good response was achieved to the 2011 Census but inevitably some people were missed. The issue of under coverage in a census is one that affects census takers everywhere and ONS designed methods and processes to address this. A Census Coverage Survey was carried out to measure under coverage in a sample of areas and, based on this and rigorous estimation methods, the census population estimates represent 100% of the usually resident population in all areas. The estimation methods were subject to an independent peer review which concluded that “the further procedures for Quality Assurance (QA) and adjustment significantly strengthen ONS’s strategy for successful population estimation".

All census estimates were quality assured extensively, using other national and local sources of information for comparison and review by a series of quality assurance panels. An extensive range of quality assurance, evaluation and methodology papers are being published alongside this release.

The 2011 Census provides a high quality estimate of the population that people can use with confidence.

Personal census information is not shared with any other government department nationally, regionally or locally. The information collected is kept confidential by ONS, and is protected by law. Census records are not released for 100 years.

The 2011 Census operational details

In England and Wales, 25.4 million questionnaires were posted out, and over 1,700 special enumerators delivered questionnaires to places such as university halls of residence, prisons and care homes. A team of 35,000 staff was employed to help people complete and return their questionnaires. In addition, respondents could complete their census online. Welsh residents could choose to respond to the census in either English or Welsh.

2011 Census first release of statistics

Statistics from the 2011 Census will be released in stages over the next 18 months. More information on the products and timing can be found in the 2011 Census prospectus. This bulletin represents the first release of 2011 Census statistics, and is published alongside a bulletin covering results for England and Wales, 2011 Census - Population and Household Estimates for England and Wales: March 2011 .

This bulletin summarises the usually resident population of Wales by age and sex¹.

UK statistics will be compiled and published by ONS after each of the three statistical agencies publishes the relevant data. Other topics covered in this bulletin are the number of households and population density. Results are presented for Wales and for unitary authorities. Results for lower levels of geography will be released later in the year.

2011 Census context

This bulletin draws on other information produced by ONS, including data from the mid-year population estimates as well as statistics on births, deaths and international migration. It also links to relevant data visualisations developed by ONS to aid interpretation of the figures. Comparisons are made between Wales and England. In addition, statistics compiled by [](http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/external-links/other/eurostat/index.html "Eurostat") the European statistical agency, are drawn upon in order to show England and Wales census estimates in a European context.

The statistics in this release will be used as a base for the 2011 mid-year population estimates. The mid-year population estimates are for the population at 30 June each year. The 2011, census-based, mid-year population estimates are scheduled for release in September 2012. In due course the mid-year population estimates for 2002-2010 will be re-based using what we now know from the 2011 Census; the re-based national level mid-year population estimates will be published by the end of 2012 and sub-national estimates will be released in Spring 2013.

Notes for Introduction

1. The usually resident population refers to people who live in England and Wales for 12 months or more, including those who have been here for less than 12 months but who intend to stay for 12 months or more.

The population of Wales in 2011 was 3.06 million (5.5% of the total population of England and Wales), the largest this population had ever been. There were 1.50 million men and 1.56 million women in Wales.

Since 2001 the population of Wales had increased by 153,300 (5.3%) on the estimate of 2.9 million residents, and increased by 643,000 residents (27%) on the 1911 Census estimate of 2.4 million. For every 4 residents in Wales in 1911, there were 5 in 2011.

Figure 1 Residents, 1801 - 2011^1,2,3 shows the long-term growth of the usually resident population of Wales. On the graph there is a steep increase between 2001 and 2011, showing that the growth in the population number is the largest in a 10-year period between censuses since 1921¹.

The population increased relatively quickly between 1801 and 1921, growing by more than 10% in the majority of the 10-year periods between censuses, before declining in 1931 and then growing at a rate of between 1.3% and 3.3% in each 10-year period until 2001.

Changes in population are due to differences between the numbers of births and deaths, as well as migration. Data on births and deaths show that between 2001 and 2011 there were 332,700 births and 320,900 deaths in Wales, leading to an increase of around 11,900 residents. This accounts for 8% of the total population increase, and reflects a steady increase in fertility rates in Wales since 2001, with the remainder of the population growth due to migration. Table 1 Population change, 2001-2011³ shows the change in population between 2001 and 2011 by unitary authority.

Two patterns of migration into Wales led to growth; international migration, and moves from elsewhere in the UK.

International migration into Wales increased by 46% between 2005 and 2008, following the accession of 10 countries into the EU in 2004, giving residents of these countries the right to reside in the UK. There has been a decline in international migration since then⁴.

The second component of these two types of migration was flows between Wales and the rest of the UK. There was a net inflow to Wales from the rest of the UK in every year between 2001 and 2011, at an average of 6,800 residents per year, and the majority of migration flows were between Wales and England.

Figure 2 Percentage change of population, 2001-2011³ shows a comparison between the growth rates of Wales and the England regions as well as England as a whole.

The population growth rate of Wales was lower than most England regions, but higher than the North West and North East. The growth rate in Wales was just under half that seen in London, which had the highest growth of all England regions.

Within Wales, Cardiff grew at a rate comparable to the London region, at 12%. Cardiff was one of four unitary authorities in Wales that grew at rates higher than the rate for England, the others were Pembrokeshire, Bridgend, and Monmouthshire. Reasons for population growth differ across regions of England and Wales. Regions such as London have seen growth driven by both more births than deaths and migration, whereas in Wales and England regions such as the South West and East Midlands, migration accounts for the majority of the population change.

In addition to the usually resident population, the 2011 Census has estimated the number of non-UK born people who were 'short-term residents'. These are people who had been (or intended to be) in England and Wales for at least 3 months but who were not expecting to be here for a full year, and hence were not part of the usual resident population. The estimate of short-term residents was produced to provide a more holistic picture of the total population but it is based on less complete item responses (i.e. to the question on intention to stay) than was achieved for other topics and hence is not of the same high quality as the population estimates. It was used to help quality assure the resident population estimates and it is included in the quality assurance information. This information shows that on census night there were 7,200 short-term residents in Wales. Of this group, 40% were in Cardiff.

The census estimate of non-UK born short-term residents⁵ can be compared to short-term migrants although there are some definitional differences. It will be compared to the ONS experimental estimates of short-term migrants and a reconciliation report will be produced.

Notes for The population of Wales and how it has grown

1. There was no census in 1941, due to the Second World War.

2. Early censuses recorded population present, rather than usual residents.

3. Comparison with 2001 and 1991 is based on mid-year population estimates for those years, comparison with 1981 and earlier is based on census results.

4. Detailed migration reports are available from the Welsh Government.

5. Operational definitions used for the census are available from Final Population Definitions for the 2011 Census (98.4 Kb Pdf).

The latest published population estimate for Wales, prior to the release of these census results, is the indicative mid-year population estimate at 30 June 2010 of 3.02 million people. If ONS was to update this figure for births, deaths and net international migration between 1 July 2010 and 27 March 2011, the population estimate for Wales on census night would be around 3.03 million residents. Comparing this figure with the census estimate of 3.06 million means that the census estimates just under 37,000 more residents than the rolled forward population estimates. ONS has published a report explaining this difference in parallel to this release (361.9 Kb Pdf).

People in Wales were living longer in 2011 than they did 100 years ago. This can be seen in Figure 3 Population by broad age groups, 1911-2011^1,2,3, which shows the proportion of the population aged under 15 is decreasing, while the proportion aged 65 and over is increasing.

The percentage of residents aged 65 and over was the highest seen in any census at 18.4%, which means that more than 1 in 6 residents in the population was 65 and over in 2011. In 1911, only one in 20 residents was aged 65 and over.

The proportion of the population that was aged 90 and over has increased significantly over the last century. There were 25,000 residents aged 90 and over in 2011 compared with 19,400 in 2001, and 700 in 1911.

Figure 3 Population by broad age groups, 1911-2011, Wales

Source: Office for National Statistics

The change in the broad composition of the population from younger to older can also be seen in the rise of the median age of the population from 25 years in 1911 to 41 in 2011. The median age for men in 2011 was 40 and for women it was 42. The rise in median age would be more marked if there had not been growth in the younger age groups as a result of migration.

The changing structure of the population of Wales, defined by age and sex can be visualised using a population pyramid. Figure 4 Resident population by age and sex, 2001 and 2011^3,4 shows the changes in the last 10 years.

Figure 4 Resident population by age and sex, 2001 and 2011

Wales

Source: Office for National Statistics

The overall shape of the Wales population pyramid for 2001 and 2011 represents an ageing population. Although there are fluctuations in the width of the pyramid, it doesn't begin to narrow steadily until the older age groups. For both men and women, it is evident that there has been considerable growth in the number of people in their 60s (people born in the post Second World War birth spike moved into this group), as well as growth in the number of people in their 80s and 90s.

The detail of the pyramid shows more specific events. Fluctuations in the width of the pyramid mainly reflect periods of high and low numbers of births. In the 2011 pyramid, the wide areas for those aged 40-49, and 63-64, represent the 1960s baby boom and the post Second World War spike in births.

The base of the 2011 pyramid widens from age nine downward showing an increased number of births in recent years. There were 11,100 more children aged under 5 in 2011 than in 2001. This increase is due to an increase in both the total fertility rate⁵ and the number of women of childbearing age in the usually resident population over the 10-year period. The increased number of women of childbearing age (15-45) is mainly due to the migration into Wales over the last decade.

The 2011 Census comparator [Adobe Flash] provides further population pyramids for 2001 and 2011, for regions and local and unitary authorities including those in Wales.

The younger population

Every unitary authority except Wrexham had a decrease in the numbers of 0-14 year olds. However the majority of unitary authorities showed an increase in the numbers of 0-4 year olds, as was the case in all local and unitary authorities in England.

The percentage of the population aged 0-14 decreased in all unitary authorities, with the largest decrease in Blaenau Gwent, 3 percentage points to 17%. Map 1 Change in size of age bands (0-14 and 65 and over), 2001 to 2011 shows that there were lower decreases in North East Wales and in the unitary authorities around Swansea.

Every unitary authority showed an increase in the proportion of residents aged 15-29. This increase was particularly notable in Cardiff; more than 25% of residents in Cardiff were aged 15-29, an increase of 4 percentage points since 2001.

Other urban unitary authorities, such as Newport, and Swansea, as well as Merthyr Tydfil also showed large increases in the 15-29 age group of 3 percentage points each, although as the smallest unitary authority in Wales (in terms of population), the growth in Merthyr Tydfil in this age group is 2,000 people.

The working age (15-64) and older populations

The proportion of the population aged 15-64 is important because the economic activity of employed residents supports the services required by residents not working, such as schools and care homes. This age band has been used as a proxy for the working age population but it is an approximation since no 15 year olds and not many 16-18 year olds will be working whereas some people aged over 64 may be.

There are six unitary authorities for which the proportion of the 15-64 age group has fallen between 2001 and 2011. These are the Isle of Anglesey, Flintshire, Monmouthshire, Powys, Wrexham, and Pembrokeshire. However, this age group still constitutes the majority of the population and is over 60% in all unitary authorities. In 2001, the 15-64 age group accounted for 64% of the population across Wales, in 2011 it accounted for 65%; a 1 percentage point increase.

Every unitary authority except Cardiff and Swansea saw increases in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over, and these are shown in Map 1 Change in size of age bands (0-14 and 65 and over), 2001 to 2011³. The majority of increases have been seen in rural areas. The Isle of Anglesey has seen the largest increase of 4 percentage points, those aged 65 and over now constitute 22% of the population. Cardiff has the lowest proportion of this age group at 13%.

Much of the increase in those aged 65 and over is, however, confined to the 65-69 age group, which increased as a proportion of the population in every unitary authority. The Isle of Anglesey and Powys each saw increases in this age group, and there were no comparable increases in age groups older than 65-69.

Map 1 Change in size of age bands (0-14 and 65 and over) by unitary authority, 2001 to 2011

Wales unitary authorities

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes for How the population of Wales has changed over the last 100 years

1. There was no census in 1941, due to the Second World War.

2. Early censuses recorded population present, rather than usual residents.

3. Comparison with 2001 and 1991 is based on mid-year population estimates for those years, comparison with 1981 and earlier is based on census results.

4. For the 2001 comparison lines, the 2001 mid-year population estimate of the number of people in the 90+ age category was distributed across single years of age for 91 to 99 year olds using proportions as estimated in the 2001 Census. 100+ year olds are shown as a group.

5. The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of live children that a group of women would each have if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates of the calendar year in question throughout their childbearing lives. The TFR provides an up-to-date measure of the current intensity of childbearing.

The total number of usual residents, in conjunction with land area information, allows the calculation of population density. In Wales the average population density is 148 people per square kilometre, although there is a wide variation in population density within Wales. This compares with an average population density in England of 407 people per square kilometre (356 people per square kilometre when London is excluded). Internationally, Wales has a similar population density to Denmark which has 129 people per square kilometre. Further information on international comparisons for Wales and England are available in 2011 Census – Population and Household Estimates for England and Wales: March 2011.

Cardiff has a considerably higher population density than any other unitary authority area in Wales, with 2,465 people per square kilometre; a population density similar to that of Newcastle upon Tyne, which has 2,470 people per square kilometre. Cardiff has more than three times the population density of Newport, which has the next highest with 765 people per square kilometre. The unitary authority with the lowest population density is Powys with 27 people per square kilometre. This variation in population density between the unitary authorities is shown in Figure 5 Population density, 2011.

When the 348 local and unitary authorities in England and Wales are ranked by population density, Cardiff has the 74th highest and Powys has the second lowest. Moreover, 5 unitary authorities (Powys, Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire) are ranked within the 20 local and unitary authorities with the lowest population density across England and Wales.

The population density of Wales is lower than that of any region in England, and over one third the size of the England average. Figure 6 Population density in Wales and the England regions outside London, 2011 shows a comparison between Wales and the regions of England, as well as England as a whole.

The majority of England regions have population densities that are more than double that of Wales. The least densely populated English region, the South West, has on average 50% more people per square kilometre than Wales.

There were 1.30 million households in Wales on 27 March 2011, a 7.4% increase on the 1.21 million households in 2001. This compares to a rise of 7.5% in England in the same period. Wales represents 6% of England and Wales households, as it did in 2001¹.

Map 2 Growth rate for usual residents and households by unitary authority, 2001 to 2011

Wales unitary authorities

Source: Office for National Statistics

The average household size² in Wales in 2011 is 2.3 residents per household, slightly lower than in England. As the number of households has been rising at a slightly faster rate than the population over the last 20 years, the average household size has been decreasing.

The average household size is fairly consistent (between 2.2 and 2.4 residents per household) in all unitary authorities in Wales. This shows far less variation than England, where average household size varies from 1.6 to 3.0.

The 7.4% growth rate in numbers of households is close to the growth in England although, as with the number of residents, there is considerable variation across Wales as can be seen in Table 2 Unitary authorities ordered by % change in the number of households between 2001 and 2011¹.

Notes for How many households there were in 2011

1. Comparison with 2001 and 1991 is based on mid-year population estimates for those years, comparison with 1981 and earlier is based on census results.

2. Average household size is calculated as total residents in households divided by total number of households. This measure excludes residents in communal establishments.