Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate: Q3 2014

• Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP increased by 0.7% in Q3 2014 compared with growth of 0.9% in Q2 2014.

• Output increased in all four main industrial groupings within the economy in Q3 2014. In order of their contribution, output increased by 0.7% in services, 0.5% in production, 0.8% in construction and 0.3% in agriculture.

• GDP was 3.0% higher in Q3 2014 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

• In Q3 2014 GDP was estimated to have been 3.4% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Q1 2008. From the peak in Q1 2008 to the trough in Q2 2009, the economy shrank by 6.0%.

• The preliminary estimate of GDP is produced using the output approach to measuring GDP. At this stage, data content is less than half of the total required for the final output estimate. The estimate is subject to revision as more data become available, but these revisions are typically small between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP.

• All figures in this release are seasonally adjusted.

Change in GDP is the main indicator of economic growth. Further information on GDP can be found in background note 3. All data in this bulletin are seasonally adjusted estimates and have had the effect of price changes removed (in other words, the data are deflated). Further information on some of the key concepts (including seasonal adjustment and deflation) underlying the estimates can be found in background note 9.

The preliminary estimate of GDP is produced around 25 days after the end of the quarter to provide a timely estimate of GDP. More information about the data content for this release can be found in the Assumptions made for September 2014 section and the background notes. The estimate is subject to revisions as more data become available, but between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP, revisions are typically small (around 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points), with the frequency of upward and downward revisions broadly equal.

The preliminary estimate of GDP is based solely on the output approach to measuring GDP. The output approach measures gross value added (GVA) at a detailed industry level before aggregating to produce an estimate for the whole economy. Adding taxes and subtracting subsidies (both only available at whole economy level) to this estimate of GVA produces GDP as measured by the output approach.

At this stage there is no information available on taxes and subsidies, therefore the quarterly growth for output GVA is taken as a proxy for GDP growth.

In the Second Estimate of GDP and the Quarterly National Accounts the output GVA and GDP estimates are balanced with the equivalent income and expenditure approaches to produce headline estimates of GVA and GDP.

The contribution an industry grouping makes to GDP quarterly growth is dependent on the change in that industry grouping and its weight within the output approach to measuring GDP. In the Quarterly National Accounts for Q2 2014, published on 30 September 2014, the reference year and last year of chain linked weights was updated from 2010 to 2011. The current 2011 based weights are: services 78.4%; production 14.6%; construction 6.4%; and agriculture 0.6%.

The preliminary estimate of GDP focuses on the growth in output between two consecutive quarters (in this release Q2 2014 and Q3 2014). GDP increased by 0.7% in the third quarter of 2014, with all four main industry groupings showing an increase.

The largest contribution to Q3 2014 GDP growth came from services; these industries increased by 0.7%, contributing 0.58 percentage points to the increase in GDP (as seen in Figure 1). This followed an increase of 1.1% in Q2 2014. In the latest quarter there was widespread growth, with increases in each of the four main services aggregates (distribution, hotels & restaurants; transport, storage & communication; business services & finance; and government & other services). Growth in each of the main services aggregates was lower than in Q2 2014 with the exception of government & other services which grew by 0.3% in each quarter. In Q3 2014 output from services was 7.2% above its pre-economic downturn peak in Q1 2008.

There was also an upward contribution (0.07 percentage points) from production; these industries rose by 0.5%, with energy supply increasing by 6.5% following an increase of 1.5% in Q2 2014 and manufacturing increasing by 0.4% following an increase of 0.5% in Q2 2014. Partially offsetting these rises were decreases of 1.2% in mining & quarrying following a decrease of 0.3% in Q2 2014, and 0.8% in water & waste management following a decrease of 2.5% in Q2 2014. The increase in energy was caused by an increase in both electricity generation and the manufacture of gas. The increase in gas was mainly due to an increase in the demand for gas in the production of electricity.

Construction output increased by 0.8% in Q3 2014 when compared with Q2 2014, contributing 0.05 percentage points to GDP growth and follows a rise of 0.7% in Q2 2014. Compared with the previous month, August 2014 saw a dip in construction output of 3.9% following a rise of 1.9% in July 2014. Early responses for September 2014 indicate a strong rise into September.

The comparison with a year earlier shows stronger growth than the quarter-on-quarter comparison, with construction estimated to have increased 3.0% when compared with Q3 2013. This is the sixth consecutive quarter-on-a year ago increase, beginning in Q2 2013 and coming after five consecutive quarters of year-on-year negative growth.

As seen in Figure 2, GDP in the UK grew steadily during the 2000s until a financial market shock affected UK and global economic growth in 2008 and 2009. Economic growth resumed towards the end of 2009, but generally at a slower rate than the period prior to 2008 (Figure 2). This growth was also erratic, with several quarters between 2010 and 2012 recording stagnant or declining GDP. This two-year period coincided with special events (eg severe winter weather in Q4 2010, the Diamond Jubilee in Q2 2012) that are likely to have affected growth. Since 2013, GDP has grown steadily, exceeding its pre-downturn peak in Q3 2013.

Figure 3 shows the industry breakdown of GDP. Up until the downturn, services in the UK grew steadily, while production output was broadly flat over the same period. Construction activity grew strongly in the early part of the decade, and although there was a temporary decline in the mid-2000s, this was reversed by the end of 2007.

GDP and all of its components are referenced to 2011, making the average index in 2011 equal to 100. It is for this reason that Figure 3 shows all components converging in 2011.

Industries have shown differing trends following the recent economic downturn. This is illustrated in Figure 4, which shows the path of GDP and its components (excluding agriculture, but including manufacturing which is a sub-component of production) relative to their level in Q1 2008. The construction and production industries were more acutely affected by the deterioration in economic conditions. Following the downturn, the services industries generally grew steadily, albeit slowly, with output exceeding its pre-downturn peak in Q3 2011.

Production activity began to grow in 2010 - with manufacturing and the construction industry showing particular strength – but both industries did not sustain this growth. Production output fell in both 2011 and 2012, falling below levels seen at the height of the downturn in 2009. As long-term economic uncertainty acted as a deterrent on investment, construction output sharply decreased in 2012, and was close to its 2009 trough after further contraction in Q1 2013. However, clear improvement in this component has been seen throughout 2014. Although there has been widespread growth across all major components of GDP since the start of 2013, the service industries remain the largest and steadiest contributor to economic growth (Table 1), and the only component of GDP where output has exceeded its pre-downturn peak.

Figure 5 compares average compound quarterly growth rates for the five years before the economic downturn beginning in Q1 2008, the average between Q3 2009 and Q2 2014 (five years post the downturn), and the current quarterly growths for Q3 2014. Compound average growth is the rate at which a series would have increased/decreased if it had grown/fallen at a steady rate over a number of periods. The five years after the economic downturn have experienced slower average compound GDP growth compared with the period before the downturn. This pattern is also reflected in the services and construction industries. Manufacturing is the only industry grouping that has outperformed its pre-downturn average in the five post downturn. It should be noted that the third column, current quarterly growth rate, is based on only one data point and users should use caution when making direct comparisons with the long run averages.

The ONS preliminary estimate of GDP is one of the earliest GDP releases to be published. As a result, comprehensive cross country GDP comparisons cannot yet be made for Q3 2014.

However GDP data are widely available for most major economies up to the second quarter of 2014, and a selection of quarterly and annual growth rates for this time period is presented in Table 2. Cross country GDP data are publicly available from a number of sources, including Eurostat, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Since mid-2013, GDP growth in the UK has generally exceeded growth in other G7 economies. In Q2 2014, GDP in the UK increased by 0.9%. This was exceeded only by the United States, which recorded Q2 2014 growth of 1.1%. The previous quarter saw the US experiencing a contraction in GDP of 0.5% in Q1 2014 due to severe winter weather experienced across large parts of the country. The UK’s quarter-on-year growth of 3.2% was the highest in the G7.

European economies have continued to struggle since the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2011, with Italy particularly affected. In Q2 2014, GDP in France was flat for a second consecutive quarter, with quarter-on-year growth falling to only 0.1%; meanwhile, GDP fell by 0.2% in both Germany and Italy. Quarter-on-year growth in Italy has now been negative for 11 consecutive quarters, commencing in Q4 2011.

GDP in Japan fell by 1.8% in Q2 2014. This is likely to reflect the previously announced increase in consumption tax which came into effect in April 2014, which encouraged consumers to make major purchases before the increase (Q1 2014 growth was positive at 1.5%). Consumer spending fell by 5.2% between Q1 2014 and Q2 2014.

Agriculture

Agriculture output increased by 0.3% in Q3 2014, following a decrease of 0.3% in the previous quarter. Between Q3 2013 and Q3 2014, agriculture output increased by 0.9%.

Production

The Index of Production increased by 0.5% in Q3 2014, following an increase of 0.2% in the previous quarter. Energy supply contributed the most to the increase, with growth of 6.5%. Between Q3 2013 and Q3 2014, production output increased by 2.2%.

Construction

Construction output increased by 0.8% in Q3 2014, following an increase of 0.7% in the previous quarter. Between Q3 2013 and Q3 2014, construction output increased by 3.0%.

Distribution, hotels & restaurants

The index for distribution, hotels & restaurants increased by 0.5% in Q3 2014, following an increase of 1.0% in the previous quarter. Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles & motorcycles made the largest positive contribution to the increase. Between Q3 2013 and Q3 2014, distribution, hotels & restaurants output increased by 3.8%.

Transport, storage & communication

The index for transport, storage & communication increased by 1.1% in Q3 2014, following an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter. Land transport made the largest contribution to the increase. Between Q3 2013 and Q3 2014, transport, storage & communication output increased by 3.7%.

Business services & finance

The index for business services & finance increased by 1.0% in Q3 2014, following an increase of 1.5% in the previous quarter. Architectural & engineering activities made the largest positive contribution to the increase. Between Q3 2013 and Q3 2014, business services & finance output increased by 4.3%.

Government & other services

The index for government & other services increased by 0.3% in Q3 2014, the second consecutive increase of 0.3%. Other personal service activities made the largest positive contribution to the increase. Between Q3 2013 and Q3 2014, government & other services output increased by 1.3%.

Background

The methods for producing the preliminary GDP estimate use monthly data for the first two months in the quarter and forecasts for estimating the third month. The forecasts are reinforced by early responses to the ONS Monthly Business Survey (MBS) but the monthly response rate is generally lower at this stage (typically between 30 and 50% at this point in time).

Each of the first two months includes monthly data from the MBS of 44,000 businesses, covering the production, manufacturing, services, retail and construction industries.

The forecasts for September use the standard ONS method of fitting an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with adjustments made for Easter, trading days and outliers. The forecasts are calculated for each individual industry level series (for example, food & beverage services). More information on creating the Preliminary Estimate of GDP is available on the Methods and Sources page.

Purpose of this section

This section provides details of the assumptions made for September 2014 for each of the main components of the output approach to measuring GDP: services, production and construction.

It was estimated that there was a 0.5% rise in the output of the services industries between August and September 2014.

At the more detailed level, it was estimated that distribution, hotels & restaurants rose by 0.2%, transport, storage & communication rose by 0.7%, business services & finance rose by 0.7%, and government & other services rose by 0.1%.

The services data for July and August 2014 used in the calculation of the Q3 2014 gross domestic product preliminary estimate are consistent with the data contained in the August 2014 Index of Services release published on 24 October 2014.

It was estimated that there was an increase of 0.6% in output of the production industries between August and September 2014.

At the more detailed level, it was estimated that there was an increase of 0.2% in manufacturing, 4.6% in mining & quarrying, and 0.6% in water & waste management. It was estimated that energy supply fell by 3.3%.

Small revisions (following revised seasonal factors allowing for the addition of September data) to the July and August 2014 estimates, published in the latest Index of Production (IoP) release on 7 October 2014, have been used in the calculation of the Q3 2014 gross domestic product preliminary estimate. To retain coherence between the published monthly and quarterly indices for Q3 2014, small adjustments have been made to the monthly growth rates for September 2014 for total production, mining & quarrying, energy supply and water & waste management. This ensures that if the monthly growth rates for September are applied to the published August 2014 indices for total production and the main components (and then an average taken of the July, August and September 2014 indices), the results are consistent with the published quarterly indices.

Monthly data for the construction industries are only available from January 2010.

The forecast for construction is calculated slightly differently to production and services due to the shorter time span of monthly turnover data. More weight is placed on early responses to the MBS for September. Responses from businesses were the starting point to inform the forecasts; this was then adjusted (using information collected in previous months) in recognition that these early responses from businesses tend to be lower than later responses. This approach led to an estimated 4.0% rise between August and September 2014.

The construction data for July and August 2014 used in the calculation of the Q3 2014 gross domestic product preliminary estimate are consistent with the data contained in the Construction Output, August 2014 release published on 10 October 2014.