Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 18 November 2021

• Shelf availability of items between 12 and 15 November 2021 was lowest for "crisps (multipack)", with 29% of this item's availability marked as "none" or "low"; shelf availability was highest for the "beer" category, as 71% of this item was recorded as having "high" availability (Kantar Public). Section 3.

• In the week to 14 November 2021, the UK had the lowest average daily flights relative to the level seen on the equivalent day of 2019 (64%) when compared with Spain (81%), France (77%) and Germany (73%) (EUROCONTROL). Section 4.

• The preceding seven-day rolling average gas price increased by 4% in the week to 14 November 2021 and is over three times higher than the start of the year, despite this, it is 23% lower than five weeks ago (week ending 10 October 2021) (National Grid). Section 5.

• The total volume of online job adverts on 12 November 2021 decreased by 2% to 144% of its February 2020 average level; the highest level of job adverts relative to February 2020 continues to be in the "transport, logistics and warehouse" category, at 393% (Adzuna). Section 6.

• In the week to 11 November 2021, the aggregate CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases decreased by 4 percentage points from the previous week, to 101% of its February 2020 average (Bank of England CHAPS data). Section 7.

• Overall retail footfall in the UK rose slightly by 1% in the week to 13 November 2021 and was 85% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019 (Springboard). Section 8.

• Transactions at Pret A Manger stores in the week ending 11 November 2021 remained lowest in London city stores, at 88% of the January 2020 average level (Pret A Manger). Section 9.

• There was an average of 285 daily ship visits in the week to 14 November 2021, an 8% increase from the previous week; the average number of daily cargo and tanker ship visits was 95, which was a 10% increase from the previous week, and the largest weekly increase since 15 August 2021 (exactEarth). Section 10.

• The volume of motor vehicle traffic on Monday 15 November 2021 was at 96% of its level in the first week of February 2020, broadly unchanged for the fourth consecutive week (Department for Transport). Section 11.

• In the week ending 14 November 2021, the seasonally adjusted average count of traffic camera activity for cars in London and the North East remained broadly similar to the previous week, at 112% and 107% of the average level in the week before the first UK-wide lockdown, respectively (Transport for London; North East Traffic Cameras). See the accompanying dataset.

• Three-quarters (75%) of businesses currently trading and who had imported in the last 12 months experienced a challenge importing in late October to early November 2021; this was up from 60% in late September 2021, a change in reference period for the question may have impacted the responses. Business insights and impact on the UK economy: 18 November 2021.

• Of the 96% of adults in Great Britain who reported leaving home in the past seven days, the proportion that did so and reported wearing a face covering increased slightly by 2 percentage points from the previous period to 85% (Opinions and Lifestyle Survey, 3 to 14 November 2021). Section 12.

• There were 15,290 company incorporations in the week to 12 November 2021, an increase of 4% from the previous week and an increase of 28% from the equivalent week of 2019 (11,992) (Companies House). See the accompanying dataset.

• There were 5,560 voluntary dissolution applications (an application from a company to dissolve) in the week to 12 November 2021, a decrease of 5% from the previous week and a decrease of 34% from the equivalent week of 2019 (8,400) (Companies House). See the accompanying dataset.

• In the week to 9 November 2021, the four-week rolling average of compulsory dissolution first gazettes (a notice issued by Companies House indicating their intention to remove a company from the register) was 11,343, broadly unchanged from the previous week (11,292) (Companies House). See the accompanying dataset.

• The seven-day average estimate of UK seated diners in the week to 15 November 2021 was 117% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019 (OpenTable).

Notes:

1. Users should note that the break in the available shipping data (from 14 to 19 June 2021) is when the data collection system changed.

Shelf availability research for shops across the UK has been undertaken by Kantar Public. Collectors gathered information on a range of items from up to three different stores across multiple locations, recording availability across four categories: "none", "low", "medium", or "high". It is important to note these categories are subjective as they are recorded by individual collectors. The data were collected between 12 and 15 November 2021. This new series will be updated weekly.

In the current period (12 to 15 November 2021), the overall proportion of observations for all items recorded as "high" was 54%; this was broadly similar to the previous four-day period (5 to 8 November 2021). Observations for all items recorded at "none" or "low" was 10%, also remaining broadly similar compared with the previous period.

Across the four availability categories, the largest proportion of observations recorded as "high" was "beer" at 71%, followed by "chocolate selection boxes" at 67%. The highest proportion of items with availability recorded as either "none" or "low" was "crisps (multipack)" at 29%, followed by "paracetamol" at 17%.

Data for all categories are available in the accompanying dataset.

These data are daily flight figures from the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). Daily flight numbers for the UK alongside other countries are available in EUROCONTROL's dashboard. EUROCONTROL is a pan-European, civil-military organisation dedicated to supporting European aviation. Its Aviation Intelligence and Performance Review Unit provides independent collection and validation of air navigation services performance-related data and intelligence gathering.

The flights data include international arrivals and departures to and from the UK (including crown dependencies) and domestic UK flights, but exclude overflights (flights that pass over UK territory). They capture all flight movements that operate under Instrument Flight Rules (IFR), where the pilot uses instruments in the flight deck to control, guide and adjust the plane. This includes commercial flights carrying passengers and cargo as well as non-commercial flights such as private and military flights.

Data from EUROCONTROL do not include information on the volume of passengers or cargo carried on UK flights. Especially in the context of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, flights might not be operating at full capacity and therefore trends in passengers and cargo will differ from trends in flights presented here.

The average number of UK daily flights in the latest week was at 64% and 190% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019 and 2020, respectively. From 1 September 2021 to 14 November 2021, the seven-day average has decreased by 8%, whereas in 2019’s equivalent period, the seven-day average decreased by 23%.

From 1 March 2020 to 1 May 2020, the average daily flights compared with the level seen on the equivalent day of 2019 of Spain, the UK, France, and Germany fell by 95, 90, 89 and 82 percentage points, respectively. Since November 2020, compared with Germany, Spain and France, the UK has continually had the lowest average daily flights relative to the level seen on the equivalent day of 2019 (currently 64%).

EUROCONTROL publishes flights data for a range of different European countries, these three countries were chosen for this analysis as they record the four largest air traffic volumes, including the UK. You can find the full data time series available for UK flights in the accompanying dataset, which contains daily flight numbers and the rolling seven-day averages.

System average price (SAP) of gas data are available in the Data Item Explorer from the National Grid.

The system average price (SAP) is the average price of all gas traded through the balancing market. Market participants post bids or offers for volumes of gas as day-ahead and within-day trades. The SAP aggregates the trades conducted on the On-the-Day Commodity Market (OCM). This is the market that the National Grid uses in its role as residual balancer. Other markets exist for wholesale gas trading in Great Britain.

These data can be used to understand the general trend of gas prices within Great Britain. However, they should be treated with caution as these can be subject to extreme within-day trading prices and may skew actual traded prices. It must also be noted that while these prices reflect spot prices on the day, traders can opt for futures contracts where the buyer and the seller agree the market-determined price for gas for a future date. The daily SAP is used to determine the futures price and is therefore a useful indicator of supply constraints and demand pressures. 

These data and the accompanying dataset are updated weekly in this bulletin.

Since the start of 2021, the seven-day rolling average SAP has been steadily increasing. The price has more than tripled, with an increase of 302% since 1 January 2021. Despite this week's 4% week-on-week increase the seven-day rolling average SAP was 23% lower than five weeks ago (week ending 10 October 2021).

The full data time series of actual-day SAP and the preceding seven-day average, encompassing data from 2018 to the present, can be found in the accompanying dataset.

Job adverts by category

These figures are experimental estimates of online job adverts provided by Adzuna, an online job search engine, by category, by UK country and English region. The number of job adverts over time is an indicator of the demand for labour. The Adzuna categories used do not correspond to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) categories, so these values are not directly comparable with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Vacancy Survey.

Figure 5: The total volume of online job adverts on 12 November 2021 decreased by 2% to 144% of its February 2020 average level

Volume of online job adverts by category, index: 100 = February 2020 average, 4 January 2019 to 12 November 2021, non-seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. Further category breakdowns are included in the online job advert estimates dataset and more details on the methodology can be found in Using Adzuna data to derive an indicator of weekly vacancies.

2. Users should note that week-on-week changes in online job advert volumes are outlined as percentages, rather than as percentage point changes. Percentage change figures quoted in the commentary will therefore not necessarily match the percentage point changes observed in the charts and accompanying dataset.

Download the data

Of the 28 categories, 21 saw a decrease in the number of online job adverts, while four increased and three were unchanged when compared with the previous week. The largest week-on-week increase was in “facilities and maintenance”, which rose by 5%. The largest week-on-week decreases were in “legal”, “transport, logistics and warehouse” and “HR and recruitment”, which fell by 10%, 7% and 7%, respectively. Of the 28 categories, only “legal” and “energy, oil and gas” are below their February 2020 average level.

Job adverts by region

Figure 6: The volume of online job adverts decreased by 7% in the North East this week to 177% of its February 2020 average level

Volume of online job adverts by UK countries and English regions index: 100 = February 2020 average, 4 January 2019 to 12 November 2021, non-seasonally adjusted

Download the data

The volume of online job adverts decreased for 11 of 12 UK countries and English regions on 12 November 2021 and follows widespread increases in the previous week. Northern Ireland showed the only week-on-week increase although this is because of high volatility caused by a lower or fluctuating sample size. The largest week-on-week decreases were in the North East, East of England and Scotland, which fell by 7%, 4% and 4%, respectively. The volumes of online job adverts in all 12 UK countries and English regions were above their February 2020 levels.

Daily CHAPS-based indicator

These data series are experimental faster indicators for estimating UK spending on credit and debit cards. They track the daily CHAPS payments made by credit and debit card payment processors to around 100 major UK retail corporates. These payments are the proceeds of recent credit and debit card transactions made by customers at their stores, both through physical and online platforms. More information on the indicator is provided in the accompanying methodology article.   

Companies are allocated to one of four categories based on their primary business:    

• "staples" refers to companies that sell essential goods that households need to purchase, such as food and utilities   

• "work-related" refers to companies providing public transport or selling petrol   

• "delayable" refers to companies selling goods whose purchase could be delayed, such as clothing or furnishings

• "social" refers to spending on travel and eating out

Figure 7 shows changes in the value of CHAPS payments received by large UK corporates from their credit and debit card processors, "merchant acquirers".  

In the week to 11 November 2021, the CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases in aggregate decreased by 4 percentage points from the previous week, to 101% of its February 2020 average level. All spending categories, excluding "work-related" decreased in this latest week:

• "staple" decreased by 8 percentage points
• "social" decreased by 3 percentage points
• "delayable" decreased by 2 percentage points
• "work-related" increased by 1 percentage point

In the latest week, "social" spending was below its February 2020 average level at  93%, while "delayable" spending was at 100% of its February 2020 average level. Conversely, "staple" and "work-related" spending were above their February 2020 average level at 106% and 119%, respectively.

Monthly CHAPS-based indicator

In October 2021, the monthly CHAPS-based indicator of aggregate credit and debit card spending was at 99% of its February 2020 average level, a 3-percentage point increase from September 2021.

The monthly data time series is available in the accompanying dataset and includes methodological notes that users should bear in mind. The monthly CHAPS index is calculated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), rather than being an additional series that is produced and validated by the Bank of England.

National retail footfall

National retail footfall figures are supplied by Springboard, a provider of data on customer activity. They measure the following for overall UK retail footfall, as well as by high street, retail park, and shopping centre categories:

• daily retail footfall as a percentage of its level on the same day of the equivalent week of 2019; for example, Saturday 13 November 2021 is compared with Saturday 9 November 2019

• total weekly retail footfall as a percentage of its level in the equivalent week of 2019

• the percentage change in weekly footfall compared with the previous week; for example, Week 45 of 2021 is compared with Week 44 of 2021

Springboard's weekly data are defined over a seven-day period running from Sunday to Saturday. Week 45 of 2021 therefore refers to the period Sunday 7 November to Saturday 13 November 2021.

Users should note that all quoted figures have been rounded to the nearest integer.

Figure 8: Overall retail footfall in the UK increased slightly by 1% from the previous week and was 85% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019

Volume of overall daily retail footfall, percentage compared with the equivalent day of the equivalent week of 2019, 1 March 2020 to 13 November 2021, UK

Source: Springboard, The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

Notes:

1. The vertical lines indicate notable events and coronavirus (COVID-19) restriction changes.
2. Users should note that week-on-week changes in retail footfall volumes are outlined as percentages, rather than as percentage point changes. Percentage change figures quoted in the commentary will therefore not necessarily match the percentage point changes observed in the chart.

Download this image Figure 8: Overall retail footfall in the UK increased slightly by 1% from the previous week and was 85% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019

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According to Springboard, in the week to 13 November 2021, the volume of overall retail footfall in the UK:

• for high streets increased by 2% from the previous week and was 83% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019

• for retail parks decreased slightly by 1% from the previous week and was 96% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019

• for shopping centres increased by 2% from the previous week and was 78% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019

Regional retail footfall

Figure 9: The South East of England had the highest retail footfall relative to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels in the week to 13 November 2021, at 90% of the level in the same week of 2019

Volume of daily retail footfall, percentage of the level recorded on the same day of the equivalent week of 2019, seven-day rolling average, UK countries and English regions, 1 March 2020 to 13 November 2021

Source: Springboard, The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

Download this image Figure 9: The South East of England had the highest retail footfall relative to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels in the week to 13 November 2021, at 90% of the level in the same week of 2019

.png (93.4 kB)

In the week to 13 November 2021, retail footfall saw week-on-week increases in 6 of the 10 UK countries and English regions, the largest occurring in the West Midlands, which increased by 8%. This was driven by a 13% and 7% rise in high street and shopping centre footfall, respectively. Retail footfall in Northern Ireland remained unchanged and fell slightly by 1% in Greater London, South West England and East England, when compared with the previous week.

In the same week, relative to the levels seen in the equivalent week of 2019, retail footfall was strongest in the South East at 90%, followed by the South West at 89%. In contrast, retail footfall was weakest in Scotland and Northern Ireland at 78% and 81%, respectively.

Pret A Manger is a sandwich and coffee shop franchise chain, operating around 400 stores across the UK. Its transactional data are presented as an index and show total weekly till transactions at Pret A Manger shops as a proportion of the average weekly level in the first four weeks of 2020 (between Friday 3 January and Thursday 30 January 2020). Because of this comparison across the data time series, users should expect an element of seasonality in the data.

More information on the areas featured is available in the Measuring the data section. These data are also made available every Tuesday via Bloomberg.

In the week ending 11 November 2021, transactions at Pret A Manger stores in Yorkshire increased by 9 percentage points compared with the previous week, with Manchester and Regional Towns both increasing by 6 percentage points. Scotland and Regional Stations were broadly unchanged in the same period.

In the latest week, the level of transactions at Pret A Manger stores remained the highest in Yorkshire and London suburb stores, at 160% and 134% of the weekly average level in January 2020, respectively.

The week ending 11 November 2021 saw the highest levels of transactions in London stations since the index began at 97% of January 2020 level. However, transactions in all transport-related stores remained below the January 2020 average level.

A changeover in the systems used to collect these data has introduced a level shift in the data time series from 14 June 2021 onwards. Users should not make comparisons between data before and after this date. The data produced prior to the change, for 1 April 2019 to 13 June 2021, can still be compared within that period.

A full methodological review of our current method of data collection is under way and data may be subject to revision once this is complete. We will continue to update the accompanying dataset using the current method until the review is complete.

According to Department for Transport (DfT) non-seasonally adjusted road traffic data, the volume of all motor vehicle traffic on Monday 15 November 2021 was broadly unchanged from the previous week at 96% of the level seen on the Monday of the first week in February 2020. This was the fourth consecutive week that this has been broadly unchanged.

Compared with the previous week (Monday 8 November 2021), traffic volumes for cars, heavy goods vehicles and light commercial vehicles were broadly unchanged at 91%, 111% and 112% of the level seen in the first week of February 2020, respectively.

Figure 14: The volume of motor vehicle traffic on Monday 15 November 2021 was at 96% of its level in the first week of February 2020, broadly unchanged for the fourth consecutive week

Daily road traffic index: 100 = same traffic as the equivalent day of the week in the first week of February 2020, 1 March 2020 to 15 November 2021, non-seasonally adjusted, Great Britain

Download the data

The daily DfT estimates are indexed to the first week of February 2020 and the comparison is with the same day of the week. The data provided are useful as an indication of traffic change rather than actual traffic volumes. More information on the methods, quality and economic analysis for these indicators can be found in the DfT methodology article.

This section includes some provisional results from the Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (OPN) covering the period 3 to 14 November 2021. The survey went out to 4,498 adults in Great Britain and had a response rate of 70% (3,127 responses). Further information to help understand the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on people, households and communities in Great Britain is available in Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain.

Travelling to work

In the period 3 to 14 November 2021, the proportion of working adults in Great Britain who in the past seven days:

• travelled to work (both exclusively and in combination with working from home) decreased slightly by 3 percentage points from the previous period (20 to 31 October 2021) to 67%

• worked exclusively from home remained broadly similar to the previous period at 16% (15% last period)

• neither travelled to work nor worked from home increased slightly by 2 percentage points from the previous period to 17%

Shopping

Of the 96% of adults in Great Britain who reported leaving home in the past seven days, the proportion that did so to shop for food and medicine remained unchanged from the previous period at 85%.

The proportion of these adults who shopped for things other than food and medicine in the past seven days remained broadly similar to the previous period at 47% (46% last period).

Face coverings

Of the 96% of adults in Great Britain who reported leaving home in the past seven days, the proportion that did so and reported wearing a face covering increased slightly by 2 percentage points from the previous period to 85%.

Further breakdowns, such as the situation when a face covering was worn (for example, while shopping), and by country, is available in Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain.

Faster indicator

A faster indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Company incorporations

Incorporations are when a company is added to the Companies House register of limited companies. This can also include where an existing business applies to become a limited company, where it was not one before.

Voluntary dissolution applications

A voluntary dissolution application is when a company applies to begin dissolution proceedings. As such, they effectively choose to be removed from the Companies House register. For a company to be eligible to voluntarily dissolve, it should not have completed any trading activity for a period of three months.

Compulsory dissolutions

When a company fails to file the required financial accounts and/or confirmation statements, if no contact is received by Companies House following a series of letters to the company and its officers, a first gazette notice is published in the Gazette, a notice of the Registrar's intention to dissolve the company.

UK coronavirus restrictions

A full overview of coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions for each of the four UK constituent countries can be found here:

• England

• Scotland

• Wales

• Northern Ireland

These restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin.

Pret A Manger index

The index shows total weekly till transactions at Pret A Manger stores as a proportion of the companies' average weekly level in the first four weeks of 2020 (between 3 January 2020 and 30 January 2020).

These data are delivered weekly from Friday to Thursday in a week-ending format. 

The index is broken down by region: 

• Yorkshire 

• London: suburban (stores within Greater London but outside zones 1 and 2)

• London: City (key office areas)

• London: West End (key retail areas) 

• London: airports (four major airports in London)

• London: stations (three large train stations in London)

• Manchester 

• Scotland 

• Regional towns (stores in towns not included in this index)

• Regional stations (stores in stations in towns not included in this index)

These regions have been selected as in some areas of the UK, there are limited numbers of Pret A Manger stores. For example, at the time of index creation, there were two stores open in Leeds and two in York, leading to these being grouped together as "Yorkshire".

Wales is omitted from the index as it has a low number of stores. Regional towns includes shops in towns other than those listed.

Information on the strengths and limitations of the indicators in this bulletin is available in the Coronavirus and the latest indicators of the UK economy and society methodology.