GDP monthly estimate, UK: October 2024

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October 2024, largely because of a decline in production output; this follows a fall of 0.1% in September 2024.

• Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024, with growth in the services and construction sectors in this period.

• Monthly services output showed no growth in October 2024 after also showing no growth in September 2024, but grew by 0.1% in the three months to October 2024.

• Production output fell by 0.6% in October 2024, because of falls in manufacturing, and mining and quarrying output, following a fall of 0.5% in September 2024; production output fell by 0.3% in the three months to October 2024.

• Construction output fell by 0.4% in October 2024, following a growth of 0.1% in September 2024, but grew by 0.4% in the three months to October 2024.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October 2024. This follows a fall of 0.1% in September 2024 and growth of 0.2% in August 2024.

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024. Services output was the main contributor to the growth in the three months to October, increasing by 0.1%. While construction also grew by 0.4% over the last three months, these were partially offset by a 0.3% fall in production output over the same period.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

There are no revisions included in this monthly release, in accordance with our National Accounts revision policy.

Production fell by 0.6% in October 2024 and was the largest contributor to the overall fall in GDP in the month. Construction fell by 0.4%, while services showed no growth.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.1% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to October 2023. It increased by 1.3% in October 2024, compared with the same month last year.

On the month, services output is estimated to have shown no growth in October 2024. Of the 14 subsectors, seven had increased output, one showed no growth, and six saw output decline in October 2024.

The services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.1% overall in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024. There was a rise in output in 7 of the 14 subsectors in this period.

Professional, scientific, and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, increasing by 1.5% in the three months to October 2024. The next largest contribution came from education, where output increased by 0.7%. The largest negative contribution on the three months to October 2024 was administrative and support service activities, which fell by 0.8%.

The largest positive contribution in the services sector in October 2024 came from the information and communication subsector, where output rose by 0.9% in the month, following a fall of 2.0% in September 2024. Four out of the six industries in this section grew in October 2024. The growth was driven mainly by telecommunications, which increased by 2.8% in October 2024, following a fall of 1.1% in September 2024.

Growth of 0.8% in transportation and storage gave the next largest positive contribution at the subsector level in October 2024. This was driven by warehousing and support activities for transportation, which grew by 2.5%.

There was also growth of 0.2% in professional, scientific and technical activities in October 2024, driven by increased output of 1.6% in the legal activities industry, and growth of 0.2% in human health and social work activities. 

The largest negative contribution came from administrative and support service activities which fell by 0.8% in October 2024. October's decrease was because of falls in three out of its six industries. The largest contribution came from a 2.3% fall in employment activities. There were also falls of 1.2% in office administrative, office support and other business support activities, and 1.1% in rental and leasing activities.

Other subsectors that contributed negatively to the services sector in October 2024 include:

• a fall of 0.3% in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• a fall of 1.2% in accommodation and food service activities

• a fall of 2.0% in arts, entertainment and recreation

• a fall of 0.4% in education

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 86.0% in October 2024. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 97.0% and 97.5%, respectively.

Consumer-facing services

Output in consumer-facing services decreased by 0.6% in October 2024, following growth of 0.4% in September 2024. Food and beverage service activities was the largest contributor to the decrease at the industry level, with output falling by 2.0%. This is followed by retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles where output decreased by 0.7%. There was a rise of 1.1% in accommodation in October 2024, which was the largest positive contributor to consumer-facing services in the month. This follows a fall of 1.7% in September 2024. More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services October 2024 dataset.

Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.4% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024. The largest positive contribution in this period came from a growth of 1.2% in the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry. See our Retail Sales, Great Britain: October 2024 bulletin for more information on this industry. This was partially offset by decreases of 0.7% in food and beverage service activities and 2.4% in the travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service activities and related activities.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: October 2024 bulletin.

On the month, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in October 2024, following a fall of 0.5% in September 2024. This was caused by a 0.6% decrease in manufacturing and a fall of 3.1% in mining and quarrying. These falls were partially offset by growth of 1.4% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and a 0.5% growth in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities in October 2024.

Production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in the three months to October 2024, when compared with the three months to July 2024. Three of the four production sectors saw falls over this period. The largest contribution to the fall was a 2.0% decrease in mining and quarrying. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply decreased by 1.2%. Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities decreased by 0.2%. Manufacturing experienced no growth in the three months to October 2024.

Electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply grew by 1.4% in October 2024, following a fall of 1.9% in September 2024. The growth in October 2024 was driven by an increase of 10.4% in the manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and air conditioning supply. This follows a fall of 10.1% in September 2024. This growth was partially offset by a decrease of 0.6% in electric power generation, transmission and distribution.

Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output grew by 0.5% in October 2024, following a fall of 0.7% in September 2024. Three of the four industries within the subsector grew in October 2024. There were increases of 1.9% in sewerage, 0.2% in waste collection, treatment and disposal activities, and 0.4% in remediation activities and other waste management services. There was a fall of 0.5% in water collection, treatment and supply.

Mining and quarrying output fell by 3.1% in October 2024, following a growth of 3.7% in September 2024. The decrease in October 2024 can be attributed to a 3.7% fall in extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas.

Manufacturing output fell by 0.6% in October. It was the largest contributor to the reduction in production output in the month, following a fall of 1.0% in September 2024. Manufacturing output decreased in 7 of the 13 subsectors in October 2024. The largest negative contributions in October 2024 came from:

• a fall of 2.6% in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations

• a fall of 2.8% in the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.)

• a fall of 3.7% in the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products

The largest positive contribution in October 2024 came from an increase of 1.8% in the manufacturing of computer, electronic & optical products.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 83.6% in October 2024. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with our National Accounts revision policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 96.9% and 97.7%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: October 2024 bulletin.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.4% in October 2024, following an increase of 0.1% in September 2024. The fall in monthly output in October 2024 came solely from repair and maintenance, which fell by 1.3%. New work grew by 0.2%.

Four out of the nine sectors saw decreases in October 2024. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly decrease was private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 3.8%.

Construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in the three months to October 2024, compared with the three months to July 2024. New work increased by 1.7% over the period. Repair and maintenance fell by 1.2%. Within new work, the largest contributor to the increase came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 3.0%. The largest negative contributor in repair and maintenance came from private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 4.0%.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey. The survey turnover response rate for construction was 66.3% for October 2024. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.8% and 95.2%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: October 2024 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported, as part of our monthly business surveys, to have played a part in performance across different industries in October 2024. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact.

A range of industries across the production and services sectors reported mixed comments around the Autumn Budget 2024 announcement that took place on 30 October 2024. Those who were negatively affected stated that turnover was affected, as customers waited for the outcome of the Autumn Budget 2024. These comments came from a range of industries, but were mainly from manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, computers programmers, professional services, and employment agencies. 

There were some positive comments that cited the Autumn Budget 2024 had brought forward activity in anticipation of the various announcements. These comments were seen in wholesale, real estate, legal services, and accountants.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. Growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly GDP and main sectors data. However, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended, because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in:

• our Index of Services, UK: October 2024 bulletin

• our Index of Production, UK: October 2024 bulletin

• our Construction output in Great Britain: October 2024 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). Response rates for each can be found below in:

• our Index of Services response rates dataset

• our Index of Production response rates dataset

• our Construction response rates dataset

Our GDP(o) data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this bulletin.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP. Quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches - output, income, and expenditure.

Estimates for the construction industry in monthly GDP will differ to those published in our construction output release because they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences, because the Annual Business Survey is used in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services are:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.