DateRelease and backgroundCurrent pictureEconomic contextTrends to considerNext release
29 Mar 2018 Balance of payments for the UK

Summarises the UK’s total economic transactions between UK residents and the rest of the world.

Covers:

  • current account
  • capital account
  • financial account
  • international investment position

The current account comprises the trade in goods and services account, the primary income account and secondary income account. The difference in the monetary value of these accounts is known as the current account balance. A current account balance is in surplus if overall credits exceed debits, and in deficit if overall debits exceed credits. In Quarter 4 2017 the UK current account recorded a deficit of £18.4 billion, equivalent to 3.6% of nominal GDP.

Provides a wide range of estimates about the UK’s trade, income and investment flows with the rest of the world.

The sharp depreciation in sterling post-referendum could be a key influence to the current account. Theoretically it should make UK exports cheaper and imports more expensive which could lead to a change in consumer habits, although in practice the impact of sterling is likely to be much more complex. Income could also be impacted as UK earnings abroad will, all else being equal, increase as it will be cheaper to repatriate profits and earnings. UK payments to non-resident investors will be little changed as the majority will already be denominated in sterling. However, non-resident investors may invest more in the UK as asset price will be comparatively cheaper due to the exchange rate. In turn, greater investment holding should lead to increased paymentsFurther information on how a sterling devaluation can impact the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position can be found in the Balance of Payments, October to December 2017.

29 June 2018
29 Mar 2018 Business investment in the UK, revised

Summarises the level of business investment in the UK which is part of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF).

Covers:

  • gross fixed capital formation
  • business investment

Business investment, in volume terms, has grown during 2017, with stronger growth in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017 and Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017.

Business investment (and GFCF) indicates the total level of investment in the UK economy for the particular quarter. In general, businesses tend to invest more when the economy is doing well and vice versa in periods of recession and uncertainty.

Decisions to invest may change reflecting businesses' assessment of the economy and their financial situations post-referendum. 25 May 2018
9 Mar 2018 Construction output in Great Britain

Summarises the UK’s construction sector.

Covers:

  • all construction work
  • all new construction work
  • repair and maintenance

The underlying pattern to January 2018 as suggested by the three-month on three-month movement shows construction output fell by 1.0%.

The largest downward contribution to change in the rate came from prices for motor fuels, which rose by less than they did a year ago.

Provides a short-term indication on how confident and able businesses and the government are in investing in new properties and infrastructure or repairs and maintenance.

May act as an indicator of how confident enterprises are in investing in buildings and the infrastructure, as longer-term assets. 11 April 2018
20 Mar 2018 Consumer price inflation

Summarises the movements in prices of the items in the designated basket of goods and services.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 2.5% in February 2018, down from 2.7% in January 2018. The largest downward contributions to the change in the rate came from transport and food prices which rose by less than a year ago.

Consumer price inflation is the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall. An annual  inflation rate of 2% tells us that a basket costing £100 a year ago would cost about £102 today.

Consumer price inflation can be influenced by the strength of domestic supply and demand and also changes in the UK prices of imports. The inflation rate also depends on price levels in the preceding year.

18 April 2018
22 Dec 2017 Consumer trends

Summarises household expenditure and consumption trends.

In Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017, household spending (adjusted for inflation) grew by 0.5% (£1412m) compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017. Household spending when compared with the same quarter a year ago has been showing positive growth each quarter since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2012. It was 1.0% higher in Quarter 3 2017, when compared with Quarter 3 2016.

Household expenditure accounts for about 60% of total expenditure in the economy and is an important indicator of consumer confidence in the economy and to some extent consumer well-being.

In the longer-term, spending decisions on goods and services may change as households reassess the economic situation post-referendum. 29 March 2018
9 Jan 2018 Economic well-being

Indicators that adjust or supplement more traditional measures such as gross domestic product (GDP) to give a more rounded and comprehensive basis for assessing changes in economic well-being.

In Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017, gross domestic product (GDP) per head increased 0.2% compared with Quarter 2 (April to June) 2017 and is now 2.7% above pre-economic downturn levels. Net national disposable income (NNDI) per head increased by 1.5% in Quarter 3 2017 compared with the same quarter a year ago. In Quarter 3 2017, real household disposable income (RHDI) per head , decreased 0.2% compared with the same quarter a year ago, largely due to an increase in the general price level.

The release provides alternative measures which are aimed overall to be more rounded and comprehensive measures of economic well-being than just GDP alone.

May indicate any effects post-referendum on the various dimensions of material well-being. 5 April 2018
26 Jan 2018 Gross domestic product (GDP): Quarterly national accounts

A detailed breakdown of the components of GDP as well as main sector accounts aggregates, including the third estimate of quarterly GDP.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated to have increased by 0.4% during Quarter 3 (July to September) 2017.

GDP measures total activity in the economy and is a key indicator of economic performance.

This is the 19th consecutive quarter of positive growth since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2013 22 February 2018
20 Mar 2018 House price index

Summarises movement in house prices. Note that these are still experimental statistics.

Covers:

  • House Price Index
  • annual change in house prices

Average house prices in the UK have increased by 4.9% in the year to January 2018 (down from 5.0% in the year to December 2017). The annual growth rate has slowed since mid-2016 but has remained broadly around 5% during 2017.

In the short term, house prices are an important indicator of household confidence and activity in the housing market. Slower or declining house prices could mean that households are putting off decisions to buy houses, or that they are becoming less affordable.

In the longer term, decisions to buy houses and prices may change as households reassess the economic and their financial situations post-EU referendum. 18 April 2018
9 Mar 2018 Index of production

Summarises the UK’s production sector which includes manufacturing.

Covers:

  • Index of Production (IoP) and growth rates
  • manufacturing output and growth rates

In the three months to January 2018, the Index of Production increased by 0.2% compared with the three months to October 2017, due to a rise of 0.9% in manufacturing; this was partially offset by a decrease of 6.4% in mining and quarrying, caused mainly by the shut-down of the Forties oil pipeline within December 2017.

IoP is one of the earliest indicators of growth in the output industry and accounts for 14.6% of total economic activity (GDP).

Manufacturing is dependent upon both domestic and overseas demand for UK produced goods. Changes in output will reflect both domestic demand and how UK trade is faring in the post-referendum world. 11 April 2018
29 Mar 2018 Index of services

Summarises the UK services sector performance which includes services such as transport, finance and government services.

Covers:

  • Index of Production (IoP) and growth rates
  • manufacturing output and growth rates

In the three months to January 2018, services output increased by 0.6% compared with the three months ending October 2017. In the three months to January 2018, services output increased by 1.3% compared with the three months ending January 2017. The Index of Services increased by 0.2% between December and January 2017.

Services output increased by 0.4% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017 compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017. The business services and finance sector made the largest contribution to the quarterly growth, contributing 0.25 percentage points. In the three months to September 2017, services output increased by 1.4% compared with the three months ending September 2016; this growth is at its lowest since the three months ending October 2013. The Index of Services increased by 0.1% between August and September 2017.

Growth rates of the Index of Services (IoS) and its component parts such as distribution, hotels and restaurants; transport, storage and communication; business services and finance; and government services have varied in recent periods. 27 April 2018
15 Sep 2016 Investment by insurance companies, pension funds and trusts in the UK (MQ5)

Summarises the net investment of various types of financial companies on various financial assets.

Covers:

  • net investment in short-term assets
  • net investment in UK government sterling securities
  • net investment in UK corporate securities
  • net investment in overseas securities
  • net investment in other assets

Net investment of £6 billion was reported by insurance companies, pension funds and trusts in Quarter 2 2016. The 5-year quarterly average for this series is net investment of £8 billion. Net investment was reported in UK government sterling securities and short-term assets while net disinvestment was reported across overseas securities, other assets and UK corporate securities.

MQ5 is an indication about the level of confidence financial investors have in the UK economy and also their various investment strategies.

Immediately after the referendum result, there was a rush to buy UK government sterling securities as well as some overseas securities that were considered as safe havens. However, the impact on the quarter as a whole remains to be seen. In the longer-term, net investments of the various asset types may indicate the financial investors’ preferred assets and changes in the composition of financial portfolios. 15 Dec 2016
21 Mar 2018 Labour market statistics

Summarises the state of the UK labour market and comprises estimates for:

  • employment
  • unemployment
  • average weekly earnings
  • Claimant Count
  • vacancies.

Employment rate

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.3% in November to January 2018, up from 74.6% for a year earlier.

There were 32.25 million people in work, 168,000 more than for August to October 2017 and 402,000 more than for a year earlier.

Unemployment rate

The unemployment rate was 4.3% in November to January 2018, down from 4.7% for a year earlier.

There were 1.45 million unemployed people, 24,000 more than for August to October 2017 but 127,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

Average weekly earnings

Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.6% excluding bonuses in November to January 2018, and by 2.8% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.2% excluding bonuses, and was unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

The health of the labour market is important because most people in the UK rely on a job as a source of income. In general, the labour market does better in periods of economic growth and vice versa in periods of recession and uncertainty.

Employment rate

GDP increased by 0.4% between July to September 2017 and October to December 2017 showing that the economic backdrop to the labour market was generally positive. In the longer-term, labour market trends will reflect changes to the overall economy.

Unemployment rate

Future movements will generally reflect underlying labour market conditions and labour market policies.

Average weekly earnings

How inflation affects nominal pay levels and pay growth rates will be important in the coming months.

17 April 2018
23 Jan 2018 Overseas travel and tourism, monthly provisional results

Summarises the level of tourism activity by overseas visitors to the UK and UK residents abroad.

Covers:

  • overseas residents’ visits and expenditure in the UK
  • UK residents’ visits and expenditure abroad

These latest figures for October 217 show decreases in visits to the UK by overseas residents and decreases in visits overseas by UK residents.

Provides an indicator of the degree to which the UK is a preferred tourism destination, especially for European visitors who make up the majority of overseas visitors to the UK. Also shows changes in UK residents taking holidays abroad.

It will be interesting to see if the recent decreases in overseas visits continues.

22 March 2018
25 Aug 2016 Population by country of birth and nationality

Gives population estimates by nationality and country of birth for the UK and local authorities (LAs) in England.

In 2015, 1 in 8 (13.3%) of the usually resident population of the UK were born abroad, which compares with 1 in 11 (8.9%) in 2004. There was a statistically significant increase in the non-UK born population of the UK between 2014 and 2015, increasing from 8.3 million to 8.6 million (an increase of 3.5%). 3.2 million of the non-UK born residents were born in the EU (16% of whom held British nationality, 83% held EU nationality and 1% held non-EU nationality). 5.4 million of the non-UK born residents were born outside of the EU (54% of whom held British nationality, 5% held EU nationality and 41% held non-EU nationality) – a reflection that EU nationals have the freedom of movement between EU countries, whereas for non-EU nationals there is an incentive to acquire British nationality.

Shows population of those born outside the UK or with non-UK nationality and shows how this varies across England.

In the longer-term, the referendum result may influence changes in the composition and level of population by nationality and country of birth. August 2018
23 Jun 2016 Population estimates for UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland

Majority of period was before the referendum. UK resident population as at 30 June 2015 by age and sex.

The population of the United Kingdom at 30 June 2015 is estimated to be 65,110,000 derived from the international migration statistics published in November 2015, and birth and death registrations reported within published provisional data on births and deaths. Over the year to mid-2015 the number of people resident in the UK increased by 513,300 (up 0.8%), similar to the average annual increase seen over the last decade. The population increase of the UK in the year to mid-2015 included natural growth (more births than deaths) of 171,800 people, net international migration of 335,600 and an increase of 5,800 people in the armed forces population.

Shows how population has changed due to births, deaths and migration (both international migration and internal migration).

This release covers the period only up to 30 June 2016 but the June 2018 release will include impact of migration on population growth in the first year after referendum. Impact of international migration will not be broken down by citizenship but at the UK level these are available from the November 2017 MSQR release. June 2018
20 Mar 2018 Producer price inflation

Summarises the movements in input and output prices of producers sector.

Covers:

  • input indices and growth rates
  • output indices and growth rates

Output

Total output price inflation rose 2.6% in the year to February 2018, down from 2.8% in January 2018. This is a decline of 1.1 percentage points from a 3.7% peak in February and March 2017.

Food products had the largest upward effect on the annual rate.

Input

Total input prices annual rate rose 3.4% on the year to February 2018. This is down from 4.5% in January 2018 and 16.5 percentage points below its January 2017 peak of 19.9%.

The largest upward contribution to the annual rate in February 2018 came from crude oil. The largest downward contribution to the monthly rate in February 2018 came from crude oil.

Shows how population has changed due to births, deaths and migration (both international migration and internal migration.

Output

Changes in the output PPI inflation rate can be influenced by changes in labour and energy costs. The appreciation of sterling, to the extent it causes imported inputs to be less expensive could also have a downward pressure on input prices, and ultimately output prices.

Input

The appreciation of sterling, to the extent it causes imported inputs to be less expensive could have a downward pressure on input prices, and ultimately output prices.

18 April 2018
21 Mar 2018 Public sector finances

Summarises the state of public sector finances.

Covers:

  • public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks)
  • public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks)

Public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) decreased by £25.8 billion to £66.3 billion over the 20 months - July 2016 to February 2018, compared with the 20 months - July 2015 to February 2017.

Public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) was 85.1% of GDP at the end of February 2018, up 2.3 percentage points from 82.8% at the end of June 2016.

Central government tax revenues (including National Insurance Contributions) were £1,093.5 billion over the 20 months - July 2016 to February 2018, £53.9 billion higher than the 20 months - July 2015 to February 2017.

Of this revenue, Stamp Duty on land and property was £22.1 billion over the 20 months - July 2016 to February 2018, £2.0 billion higher than in the 20 months - July 2015 to February 2017.

Tax revenue statistics provide an indication of the level of activity in the economy, while government expenditure and debt data will reflect any changes in fiscal policy as well as changes in the level of social benefit and debt interest payments.

Trends in tax revenues may indicate changes in the pace of the economy. For example, stamp duty receipts will reflect changes in the housing market and levels of transactions.

Following on from the Bank of England's August announcement of the expansion of the Asset Purchase Facility Fund and the introduction of the Term Funding Scheme (TFS), in December 2016 we introduced two supplementary measures of debt; Public sector net debt excluding both public sector banks and the Bank of England (PSND ex BoE) and Public sector net financial liabilities (PSNFL) (an Experimental Statistic) to fully reflect the impact on public sector balance sheet. At the end of February 2018, PSND ex BoE was £192.0 billion, or 9.3 percentage points lower than PSND ex.

24 April 2018
22 Mar 2018 Retail sales in Great Britain

Summarises the change in the value and volume of retail sales for various types of retailers.

Covers:

  • retail sales indices and growth rates

In February 2018, the quantity bought in retail sales increased by 0.8% when compared with the previous month, with increases seen across all main sectors except non-food stores.

Retail sales estimates are an important short-term indicator of consumer confidence and strength of consumer spending. The release scores well in terms of timeliness.

Changes in retail sales could indicate changes in consumer confidence post-referendum. But other factors also influence retail sales such as prices, weather, and the overall financial position of households. 19 April 2018
5 Apr 2017 UK productivity

Covers:

  • Labour productivity
  • Public services productivity
  • Multi-factor productivity
  • Analysis of productivity microdata

UK labour productivity, as measured by output per hour, is estimated to have grown by 0.4% from Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2016; looking over a longer period the “productivity puzzle” remains, with growth on average lower than prior to the downturn.

Labour productivity is important for economic performance in the long run as it measures how much output a unit of labour input can produce. Stronger productivity growth can support the growth of GDP and earnings.

In the long term, labour productivity can be affected by several factors, including (but not limited to): the rate of technological progress and innovation, the structure of the labour market, investment and infrastructure, as well as the economic environment faced by businesses. These and other factors are affected by both domestic UK policy and the UK's relationship with the European Union. 5 July 2017
9 Mar 2018 UK trade

Summarises UK’s export and import performance for goods and services.

Covers:

  • balance of trade in goods and services
  • balance of trade in goods with EU and non-EU countries

The total UK trade (goods and services) deficit widened by £3.4 billion to £8.7 billion in the three months to January 2018; excluding erratic commodities, the deficit widened by £2.6 billion to £8.9 billion. The £3.4 billion widening of the total trade (goods and services) deficit was due to a £3.2 billion widening of the trade in goods deficit and a £0.2 billion narrowing of the trade in services surplus. The widening of the trade in goods deficit was mainly due to a £1.3 billion increase in imports (particularly fuels) from non-EU countries, combined with a £1.2 billion decrease in exports (including fuels) to non-EU countries, in the three months to January 2018.

Data shows how much the UK is importing by way of goods and services from overseas, and its ability to export goods and services to EU and non-EU countries.

Signs of change in the balance of exports compared with imports. The sharp depreciation in sterling post-referendum could be a key influence by making our exports cheaper and imports more expensive. 11 April 2018