Background
Population and migration statistics are two of the high priority areas set out in the Strategic Business Plan for 2024/2025. We know that our users need clear communication about our statistics, the way they are produced and our plans given the crucial uses for central and local government, academics, media and numerous other users. In order to ensure we keep people informed, we are setting out how we will engage on new methods for population estimates.
In recent years, the move towards a population and migration system based on administrative data has delivered improvements to estimates. The next steps include moving to Admin-Based Population Estimates (ABPEs) for England and Wales as the official estimates of the population. These estimates are central to the evolution of population and migration statistics and we know that there are a wide range of users we need to engage with.
Aims
The aims of our engagement approach are:
Support our users’ understanding of admin-based population estimates (ABPEs), the statistical system and reasons for moving to ABPEs as official estimates (England and Wales)
Give assurance to our users that ABPEs meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and value once the ABPE methodology supersedes the current methodology
Ensure that user needs have been taken into account before decisions are made; this includes how revisions will be managed within the new admin-based system
Work with users to understand what information they need to support confidence in the new approach
Communicate information around plans for releases of ABPEs and other relevant statistics in advance to support users’ planning for workstreams which use population estimates
Ensure there are ways for our users to feedback and talk to us about both the statistics and the improvements being made to the population and migration statistical system
Increase the transparency of population and migration statistics
Assure ourselves that our engagement meets the standard expected in order to achieve accredited official statistic status
Timeline for engagement
Autumn 2024
Publish our response to the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR).
Hold focus groups for colleagues in other government departments to gather feedback on a proposal for revisions.
Work closely with 15 local authorities to further develop admin-based population estimates (ABPEs), as described in our quarterly update.
Publish LA case studies to explain differences between ABPEs and official estimates.
Continue to publish a monthly newsletter and quarterly update.
Ensure that we are engaging with main stakeholders from central government in a regular meeting about population estimates.
Winter 2024 to 2025
Collate user needs and take these into account to understand the impact of improvements before decisions are made about ABPEs.
Publish the criteria used to assure ourselves in moving to ABPEs as the official estimates of the population for England and Wales.
Publish our proposals for revisions to population and migration statistics to keep users informed about future plans.
Explore new ways to disseminate information, for example through "StatsUserNet".
Continue to engage with experts through Methodological Assurance Review Panel (MARP) and the Dynamic Population Model (DPM) sub-group to inform methods.
Spring 2025
Hold webinars on the population and migration statistics system throughout 2025.
Develop the timeline for the "rhythm" of publications to support users’ understanding of when estimates will be available.
Continue to engage with colleagues across UK nations to progress plans for UK population estimates.
Summer 2025
Publish further updates to non-technical articles alongside mid-2024 estimates for England and Wales.
The aim is for ABPEs to become the official estimates of the population for England and Wales; we will continue to engage with stakeholders once this change is made to ensure we understand ongoing user needs.
This page will be updated in 2025.
We welcome feedback on this approach or the improvements to methodology – pop.info@ons.gov.uk