Business insights and impact on the UK economy: 29 June 2023

• Latest results suggest business conditions continue to remain challenging, but estimates show signs of improvement for some measures; examples include: a smaller proportion of businesses reporting supply chain disruption, more businesses reporting they were able to get materials, goods, and services from within the UK, and fewer businesses reporting price inflation of goods and services or energy prices as their main concern.

• More than two-thirds (68%) of businesses with 10 or more employees reported they were able to get the goods they needed from within the UK in May 2023 without some form of disruption, up three percentage points from April 2023; a further 13% of businesses reported they had to change suppliers or find alternative solutions to do so.

• In May 2023, nearly 3 in 5 (59%) businesses with 10 or more employees reported they did not experience global supply chain disruption, up four percentage points from April 2023.

• More than two-thirds (67%) of businesses reported some form of concern for their business for July 2023, the lowest percentage reported since late March 2022.

• Around 1 in 8 (13%) businesses reported that their employees' hourly wages had increased in May 2023 compared with April 2023; this was 22% for businesses with 10 or more employees.

• Less than 1 in 10 (7%) businesses were affected by industrial action in May 2023, the lowest proportion reported since July 2022; as a result, a third (33%) of those businesses reported that their workforce had to change their working location.

The data presented in this bulletin are the final results from Wave 85 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), which was live from 12 June to 25 June 2023.

The data reported within BICS bulletins and datasets are estimates that are subject to uncertainty, for example, sampling variability and non-sampling error (see our Uncertainty and how we measure it for our surveys methodology). Further information on quality is available in our Business Insights and Conditions Survey Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) and we regularly update confidence intervals associated with the survey questions.

Experimental single-site weighted regional estimates up to Wave 74 are available in our Business insights and impact on the UK subnational single-site economy: February 2023 article.

Figure 1: Headline figures from the Business Insights and Conditions Survey

Notes:

1. For presentational purposes, some response options have been excluded.

2. Data are plotted in the middle of each wave.

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The percentage of businesses that reported they were trading in late June 2023 was 94%, with 85% fully trading and 9% partially trading (for example, trading with reduced hours or staff numbers). Meanwhile, 4% of businesses reported "temporarily paused trading" and 2% "permanently ceased trading" as their business's trading status.

Of currently trading businesses with 10 or more employees, 19% had exported and 23% imported in the last 12 months.

Those businesses that had exported and/or imported in the last year were asked how their exporting and importing in May 2023 compared with May 2022, and which challenges they had experienced an increase in compared with the previous calendar month.

Figure 2: Exporting and importing figures from the Business Insights and Conditions Survey

Notes:

1. Exporting or importing compared with the same month last year: percentage of businesses currently trading with 10 or more employees and had reported they had exported or imported in the last year.

2. Exporting or importing challenges: percentage of businesses currently trading with 10 or more employees, reported they had exported or imported in the last year, and reported how their exports or imports were affected. Businesses may report that exporting or importing has increased or not been affected but are still able to report challenges.

3. Exporting or importing challenges: response options may not sum to 100% because of rounding, percentages less than 1% being removed for disclosure purposes and some response options being excluded from the import or export question.

4. Caution should be taken when interpreting these results based on the specific routing of this question meaning that only a small number of businesses responded.

5. For presentational and disclosure purposes, some response options have been combined or removed.

6. Data are plotted in the middle of the period of each wave.

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Further industry and size band breakdowns for all exporting and importing questions are available in our accompanying dataset.

Intra UK procurement

Businesses that had not permanently stopped trading were asked whether they were able to get the materials, goods or services they needed from within the UK in May 2023.

The percentage of businesses with 10 or more employees that have been able to get the materials, goods or services they needed from within the UK, either with no supply issues or having to change their supply chain was 81% in May 2023, up four percentage points from April 2023.

The number of businesses with 10 or more employees who reported they were not able to get the materials, goods or services they needed from within the UK dropped from 5% to 4% over the same period, with the remaining proportion of businesses reporting not applicable (15%).

Further details on UK supply chains, including all response options broken down by trading status, industry and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.

Global supply chain disruption

Businesses that had not permanently stopped trading were asked whether they had experienced any global supply chain disruption in May 2023.

In May 2023, around 1 in 10 (10%) businesses with 10 or more employees reported experiencing global supply chain disruption, broadly stable with April 2023. In contrast, 59% of businesses did not experience disruption, while 13% reported not sure, and 18% reported not applicable.

Of those who experienced global supply chain disruption, the main reason cited was "shortage of materials" at 28%, followed by "UK exiting the EU" at 18%, and "increased costs" at 18%.

Further details on global supply chain disruption, including all response options broken down by industry and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.

Businesses that had not permanently stopped trading were asked what their main concern for their business was when looking ahead to July 2023.

Businesses were asked for their main concern; this does not mean they do not have any other concerns for their business.

Looking ahead to July 2023, 67% of businesses have some form of business concern, with falling demand of goods and services (15%) reported as their main concern.

This is the first time this concern has been reported by a larger proportion of businesses than concerns about inflation of goods and services prices (14%) or energy prices (12%).

Compared with concerns for June 2023, there was a decrease of three percentage points from 15% in the proportion of businesses selecting energy prices as their main concern for July 2023.

Further details, including the full list of concerns broken down by industry and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.

Businesses that had not permanently stopped trading were asked if they had been affected by industrial action in May 2023.

In May 2023, the overall proportion of businesses who reported they were affected by industrial action (7%) dropped two percentage points from 9% in April 2023. This decrease aligns with the overall number of strikes (90) that took place in May 2023, down from 138 undertaken in April 2023 as reported on the UK strike action calendar.

The 7% of businesses that reported they had been affected by industrial action were then asked how they were affected. The most common responses were:

• 33% of businesses reported their workforce had to change their working location
• 27% of businesses were unable to operate fully
• 17% of businesses indicated that their workforce were unable to perform their roles

Further details on industrial action, broken down by industry and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.

Hourly wages

Businesses not permanently stopped trading were asked, on average, how their employees' hourly wages in May 2023 compared with April 2023.

Around one in eight (13%) businesses that had not permanently stopped trading reported that their employees' hourly wages had increased in May 2023 compared with April 2023; this was down from 23% when comparing April 2023 with March 2023.

Businesses commented that wages had increased on 1 April 2023 in line with all national minimum wage rates, and the national living wage rate.

Worker shortages

Of the 12% of businesses that reported experiencing worker shortages in late June 2023, more than two in five (41%) reported employees were unable to meet demands, while as a result 36% of businesses reported their employees worked increased hours.

Further details on worker shortages, including its effects broken down by industry and size band, are available in our accompanying dataset.

Access to microdata

You can access the microdata for Waves 1 to 84 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) through the Secure Research Service (SRS). The BICS microdata for each wave are released on a rolling basis in the week following the publication of each wave. The microdata are made confidential and do not disclose information on any specific business.

Only researchers accredited under the Digital Economy Act, as explained on the UK Statistics Authority website are able to access data in the SRS. You can apply for accreditation through the Research Accreditation Service (RAS). You need to have relevant academic or work experience and must successfully attend and complete the assessed Safe Researcher Training.

To conduct analysis with microdata from the SRS, a project application must be submitted to the Research Accreditation Panel (RAP), as explained on the UK Statistics Authority website. To access the SRS, you must also work for an organisation with an Assured Organisational Connectivity agreement in place.

Reporting unit

The business unit to which questionnaires are sent is called the reporting unit. The response from the reporting unit can cover the enterprise as a whole or parts of the enterprise identified by lists of local units.

More quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI, updated on 24 January 2022.

The BICS is voluntary, and the results are experimental. More information is available in our Guide to experimental statistics.

The results are based on responses from the voluntary fortnightly BICS, which captures businesses' views on financial performance, workforce, prices, trade and business resilience. The Wave 85 survey was live for the period 12 June 2023 to 25 June 2023. Our BICS survey questions are available.

Coverage

The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) covers the UK for production and Great Britain (GB) only for services. The Retail Sales Index (RSI) and construction are GB-focused. Therefore, the BICS will be UK-focused for production-based industries, but GB-focused for the other elements of the economy covered. The industries covered are:

• non-financial services (includes professional, scientific, communication, administrative, transport, accommodation and food, private health and education, and entertainment services)
• distribution (includes retail, wholesale, and motor trades)
• production (includes manufacturing, oil and gas extraction, energy generation and supply, and water and waste management)
• construction (includes civil engineering, housebuilding, property development and specialised construction trades such as plumbers, electricians, and plasterers)

The following industries are excluded from the survey:

• agriculture
• public administration and defence
• public provision of education and health
• finance and insurance

For more information on the methodology of producing the BICS, such as weighting, please see our BICS QMI report.

More quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI.