Construction output in Great Britain: June 2024, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, April to June 2024

• Construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024, compared with Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024; this came solely from a decrease in new work (0.5% fall), as repair and maintenance grew by 0.4%.

• Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in June 2024; this came from rises in both new work (0.9%), and repair and maintenance (0.1%).

• At the sector level, seven out of the nine sectors grew in June 2024, with the main contributors to the monthly increase from non-housing repair and maintenance, and private commercial new work, which grew by 3.2% and 2.1%, respectively.

• Total construction new orders grew by 16.5% (£1,771 million) in Quarter 2 2024, compared with Quarter 1 2024; this quarterly increase mainly came from private commercial new work, and infrastructure new work, which grew by 15.1% (£503 million) and 23.4% (£389 million), respectively.

• The annual rate of construction output price growth was 1.9% in the 12 months to June 2024.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in volume terms in June 2024. This follows growth of 1.7% (revised from 1.9%) in monthly construction output in May 2024. Monthly construction output for April was revised up by 0.1%, to negative 1.0%.

There were mixed effects from rain delaying work, but also warmer weather leading to an increase in output in some areas in June, according to anecdotal evidence from our Monthly Business Survey for Construction and Allied Trades (MBS). The Met Office confirmed in their Monthly climate summary (PDF, 4.6MB) that there were scattered showers throughout June; some areas of the country reached high temperatures, but mainly June was cooler than May on average. Additional comments from the MBS referenced an effect from customers holding off on spending during the general election period.

Detailed growth rates

Quarter-on-quarter construction output growth in Quarter 2 2024

Construction output fell by 0.1% (£68 million) in Quarter 2 2024. The quarterly fall came solely from a decrease in new work (0.5% fall), as repair and maintenance increased by 0.4%.

The fall in Quarter 2 2024 came solely from a 1.0% decrease in April 2024. Anecdotal evidence suggested heavy rainfall and strong winds affected output in April.

Of the nine sectors, five fell in Quarter 2 2024, with the largest contributors being private housing repair and maintenance, and public new housing. These sectors fell by 2.6% (£216 million) and 8.2% (£112 million), respectively.

The largest positive contributor was non-housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 3.0% (£300 million).

Month-on-month construction output growth in June 2024

The 0.5% growth in construction output in June 2024 represents an increase of £79 million, compared with May 2024. Seven out of the nine sectors saw growth on the month. The volume in June 2024 was £15,463 million.

Non-housing repair and maintenance, and private commercial new work were the largest positive contributors to the monthly increase in June 2024. They increased by 3.2% (£107 million) and 2.1% (£40 million), respectively.

In Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024, total construction new orders grew by 16.5% (£1,771 million), compared with Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024. This follows an increase of 17.7% in Quarter 1 2024, compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023. Quarter 2 2024 had the highest level of total construction new orders (£12,514 million) since Quarter 4 2022 (£13,032 million). More information can be found in our New orders in the construction industry dataset.

Other new work (non-housing) new orders was the largest contributor to the increase in Quarter 2 2024, growing by 15.9% (£1,269 million). This mainly came from private commercial new orders, which grew by 15.1% (£503 million) and was affected by rises in offices, garages and shops. The other main contributor to the growth in other new work was infrastructure new orders, which increased by 23.4% (£389 million).

Prices in the construction industry increased to 1.9% in the 12-month period to June 2024, as estimated from our Construction Output Price Indices dataset.

Construction output estimates

Construction output estimates are monthly estimates of the amount of output chargeable to customers for building and civil engineering work done in the relevant period, excluding Value Added Tax (VAT) and payments to subcontractors.

Seasonally adjusted estimates

Seasonally adjusted estimates are derived by estimating and removing calendar effects (for example, leap years such as 2020) and seasonal effects (for example, decreased activity at Christmas because of site shutdowns) from the non-seasonally adjusted estimates.

Value estimates

The value estimates reflect the total value of work that businesses have completed over a reference month.

Volume estimates

The volume estimates are calculated by taking the value estimates and adjusting to remove the impact of price changes.

Quality and methodology

More quality and methodology information (QMI) is available in:

• our Construction output QMI
• our Construction output price indices (OPIs) QMI
• our New orders in construction QMI

Reasons for revisions to construction output in this release

This release contains revisions to construction output estimates from April 2024 onwards, and is consistent with the National Accounts Revisions Policy. Revisions in this release are a result of:

• revisions in the nominal data; this includes revisions to the survey data
• revisions to seasonal adjustment factors, which are re-estimated every month and reviewed annually
• revisions to the input series for the Construction Output Price Indices (OPIs)

For further information on the revisions profile, see our Output in the construction industry revisions triangle (one-month growth) dataset and our Output in the construction industry revisions triangle (three-month growth) dataset.

Subnational and subsector construction output

Data on new orders supplied by Barbour ABI are used to model the breakdown of the overall output figures for Great Britain into the lower level and regional data. This is shown in Tables 1 and 2 of our Output in the construction industry: subnational and subsector dataset. More detail is available in our Quality assurance of administrative data used in construction statistics methodology.

Bias adjustment

Typically, since the move to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, an adjustment to address any bias in survey responses for construction output is applied to the early construction output monthly estimates. We show this in our Improvements to construction statistics: Addressing the bias in early estimates of construction output, June 2018 article.

Response rates for June 2024 showed improvement compared with levels in recent years since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The survey turnover response rate for June 2024 was 74.4%. This follows a response rate of 77.0% in May and 75.7% in April. We have continued not to apply a bias adjustment since May 2020 while we review this approach. More information on our response rates is available in our Output in the construction industry dataset.

Differences with Monthly GDP construction estimates

In Blue Book 2021, we introduced a new framework to improve how we produce volume estimates of GDP for balanced years as part of the supply use process. This was explained in our Producing an alternative approach to GDP using experimental double deflation estimates article. This framework included the implementation of double-deflated industry-level gross value added (GVA) for the first time. This improvement was reflected in the GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2021 bulletin and dataset and GDP monthly estimate, UK: August 2021 bulletin for the first time.

As a result, volume estimates in the monthly GDP and construction outputs releases will differ for the period 1997 to 2020. This is because the construction publication measures the volume of construction work (output), while the GDP series measures GVA (that is, output minus intermediate consumption). Construction estimates will align, but on a growth basis from January 2021 onwards.

Information and indicative effects of this change to industry-level GVA volume can be found in our Impact of double deflation on industry chain volume measure annual estimates article and our Impact of Blue Book 2021 changes on quarterly volume estimates of gross domestic product by industry article.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2019. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics (opens in a new tab) and should be labelled “accredited official statistics”.

Bluebook 2024 publication update

The 2024 UK annual national accounts, also known as Blue Book 2024, will incorporate a number of methodological changes focused on data pertaining to recent years, along with the addition of more recent survey and administrative information.

On 7 August we published our Blue Book 2024: advanced aggregate estimates article to give users details of the impact of the 2024 UK national accounts update on current price and chained volumes measure estimates of GDP from 1997 to 2022.

This estimates 2022 for the first time using the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework, as well as improving the estimates of 2021 with more recent data. We have also implemented outstanding classification decisions affecting the public sector, as well as improvements to the UK trade gas exports deflator. Additionally, we have updated the base year to 2022 after holding this fixed since the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

The next Quarterly National Accounts release on 30 September 2024 will incorporate these revisions in our official estimates in line with our National Accounts Revision Policy. These will be incorporated into our monthly Construction estimates in our release on 11 October 2024.

Until the Blue Book 2024 data are incorporated into our monthly Construction estimates on 11 October 2024, our monthly GDP estimates will continue to have a reference and base year of 2019.