Retail sales, Great Britain: September 2023

• Retail sales volumes have fallen by 0.9% in September 2023, following a rise of 0.4% in August 2023 (unrevised from our previous publication).

• Looking at the quarterly picture, sales volumes fell by 0.8% in the three months to September 2023 when compared with the previous three months.

• Non-food stores sales volumes fell by 1.9% in September 2023; retailers reported that the fall over the month was because of continuing cost of living pressures, alongside the unseasonably warm weather reducing sales of autumn-wear clothing.

• Non-store retailing (predominantly online retailers) sales volumes fell by 2.2% in September 2023, following a fall of 0.9% in August.

• Food stores sales volumes rose by 0.2% in September 2023, following a rise of 1.4% in August 2023.

• Automotive fuel sales volumes rose by 0.8% in September 2023, rebounding from a fall of 1.0% in August 2023.

Table 1 provides a snapshot of the retail sales industry in September 2023, with both volume and value growth rates.

The reporting period for this bulletin covers 27 August to 30 September 2023, including the August bank holiday on 28 August.

Figure 1 shows continued divergence between quantities bought (volume) and amount spent (value) in retail sales over time because of price increases.

When compared with their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic level in February 2020, total retail sales were 17.1% higher in value terms, but volumes were 2.5% lower.

Month-on-month contribution to growth by sector

Figure 2 shows contributions to the 0.9% month-on-month fall in overall retail sales volumes (quantity bought) in September 2023. The fall over the month was because of non-food stores and non-store retailing, despite small rises in automotive fuel and food stores.

Non-food stores

Total non-food stores sales volumes (the total of department, clothing, household, and other non-food stores) fell by 1.9% in September 2023, following a rise of 0.3% in August 2023.

Within non-food, household goods stores sales volumes reported a monthly fall of 2.3% in September 2023 because of falls in furniture and lighting stores. Retailers suggested that consumers were still struggling with the increased cost of living and prices.

The sub-sector other non-food stores fell by 2.0% in September 2023, mainly because of falls in watches and jewellery stores. Retailers suggested that consumers were less inclined to spend in the current economic climate.

Clothing stores sales volumes fell by 1.6% in September 2023. Retailers reported that the unseasonably warm weather in September 2023 reduced sales of autumn-wear. The Met Office's monthly climate summary for September (PDF, 4.8MB) reported a heatwave in the first half of September 2023, which was the joint-warmest September (shared with 2006) in the series (which started in 1884).

Department stores sales volumes fell by 1.6% in September 2023, as some retailers also reported that the warm weather affected new season clothing sales.  

Non-store retailing

Non-store retailing sales volumes fell by 2.2% in September 2023, as retailers reported that the unseasonably warm weather alongside continued cost of living affected sales.

Despite this fall, non-store retailing sales volumes were 15.2% above their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic level in February 2020.

Food stores

Food stores sales volumes rose by 0.2% in September 2023, following a rise of 1.4% in August 2023. However, looking at the quarterly picture, sales volumes fell by 1.3% in the three months to September 2023 when compared with the previous three months.

When compared with their pre-pandemic February 2020 levels, food stores sales volumes were down 3.7%.

Table 2 shows the month-on-month and month-on-year (annual) growth rates for the amount spent online by value, and the proportion of total retail sales value that was made online by sector. The percentage weights show where money is spent online. For example, seven pence in every pound spent online was spent in department stores in 2022.

Online spending values fell by 1.3% from August to September 2023, mainly because of non-store retailing, other non-food stores, and textile, clothing, and footwear stores.

As the month-on-month fall in the value of online retail was larger than the monthly fall in the value of total retail, the proportion of online sales fell from 27.0% in August 2023 to 26.7% in September 2023.

The proportion of online sales continued to exceed pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels (19.7% in February 2020).

Value (amount spent)

The value estimates reflect the total turnover that businesses have collected over a standard period.

Volume (quantity bought)

The volume estimates are calculated by taking the value estimates and adjusting to remove the effect of price changes.

Seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted estimates are derived by estimating and removing calendar effects (for example, Easter moving between April and May) and seasonal effects (such as increased spending in December because of Christmas) from the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) estimates.

Non-seasonally adjusted

Non-seasonally adjusted estimates refer to raw data, where the effects of regular or seasonal patterns have not been removed.

Non-store retailing

Non-store retailing refers to retailers that do not have a store presence. While the majority is made up of online retailers, it also includes other retailers, such as stalls and markets.

Quality

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Retail Sales Index Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

Revisions

Revisions in this release are a result of:

• revisions to seasonal adjustment factors, which have been reviewed and re-estimated

• late responses to survey returns replacing imputations, or revisions to original returns

In the datasets alongside this release, there is a larger than usual revision to the clothing, small businesses series. This was because of a retailer within this classification revising their returns over the last 12 months.

Revisions are allowed to occur naturally each month, along the full length of each data time series, following direct seasonal adjustment of the component time series.

For further information on the revisions profile, please see our Retail sales revisions triangles dataset, published on a one-month growth basis, and our Retail sales revisions triangles datasets, published on a three-month growth basis.

Uses and users

The Retail Sales Index (RSI) is an important economic indicator and one of the earliest short-term measures of economic activity. It is used in the creation of the national accounts and widely used by private and public sector institutions, particularly by the Bank of England and HM Treasury, to assist in informed decision and policymaking.

Comparability with international data

The most recent international estimate of retail sales available for September 2023 was published by the United States Census Bureau on 17 October 2023. In their Advanced monthly sales for retail and food services September 2023 report, they included the amount spent in the United States retail industry, including motor vehicles and parts, and food services.

Data for Northern Ireland are published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). Their Retail Sales Index release for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2023 was published on 14 September 2023.

It should be noted that accurate comparisons cannot be made against these or other international statistics for a variety of reasons, including differences in methodology.

Eurostat also published their latest estimates of the volume of retail trade (PDF, 346KB) across the EU on 4 October 2023 for August 2023. This shows the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade in both the euro area (EA19) and the European Union (EU27), when compared with July 2023.