Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 10 August 2023

• The total number of online job adverts increased by 3% on 4 August 2023 when compared with the previous week, but was 7% below the level seen in the equivalent period of last year (Adzuna). Section 3: Business and workforce. 

• In June 2023, 7% of businesses with 10 or more employees experienced global supply chain disruption, down 3 percentage points from May 2023; of those businesses, 30% reported a shortage of materials as the main reason for the disruption (final results from Wave 88 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey). 

• The average Direct Debit transaction amount for the total category rose by 5 percentage points year-on-year in July 2023, and the mortgages category saw an increase of £148, from £718 in December 2021 to £866 in July 2023; Direct Debit failures in the electricity and gas sector remain five times higher than their lowest point in February 2019 (Pay.UK and Vocalink). Section 4: Consumer behaviour. 

• Consumer behaviour indicators showed increased activity in the latest week, with Revolut debit card spending rising, alongside an increase in the aggregate CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases (Bank of England CHAPS data); UK overall retail footfall fell slightly from the previous week, but was unchanged from the equivalent week of 2022 (Revolut, Springboard). Section 4: Consumer behaviour. 

• Both the System Price of electricity and System Average Price (SAP) of gas saw decreases when compared with the previous week, falling by 9% and 2%, respectively; both prices were below the equivalent level of 2022, with electricity at 69% below and gas at 75% below (Elexon, National Gas Transmission). Section 5: Energy.  

• The average number of UK flights was 6,061 in the latest week, which remains 9% lower than the equivalent week of 2019; traffic camera activity for cars in London was 106% of the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level (EUROCONTROL, Transport for London). Section 6: Transport.

Notes

1. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly.
2. Users should note that card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.

Online job adverts  

The total number of online job adverts increased by 3% on 4 August 2023 compared with the previous week. In the latest week, there were increases in 19 of the 28 categories, with only four categories decreasing. The "sales" category saw the largest week-on-week increase, rising by 8%, while the "education" category saw the largest decrease, falling by 3%. 

The total number of online job adverts was 7% lower than the level seen in the equivalent period of 2022, with 22 of the 28 categories below their level of a year ago. The largest year-on-year decreases were in the "IT, computing and software" and "human resources (HR) and recruitment" categories, which both fell by 39%.  

Of the 12 UK countries and English regions, eight experienced an increase compared with the previous week, while the other four remained unchanged. Northern Ireland was the region that saw the largest increase, rising by 7% when compared with the previous week. 

Compared with the equivalent period of 2022, 10 of the 12 UK countries and English regions were below their level of a year ago. The largest falls were in the East Midlands and East of England, which fell by 20% and 15%, respectively. Only Northern Ireland increased compared with the previous year, showing a growth of 7%. Users should note that the Northern Ireland data have higher volatility than other UK countries and English regions. 

Our accompanying  Online job advert estimates dataset  is available. 

Advanced notification of potential redundancies  

Calculated as a rolling four-week average, the number of potential redundancies reported in the week to 30 July 2023 was 102% above the level in the equivalent week of 2022. The number of employers proposing redundancies was 45% above the level in the equivalent week of 2022. 

Comparisons with the equivalent period a year ago help account for any seasonal impacts. Our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset is available.

Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount 

This week, for the second time we are publishing the Direct Debit average transaction and failure rate within the Real-time indicators suite. These are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to us by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and therefore reflect economic activity in nominal terms. See the methodology guidance for further details on what is covered within this indicator.

The monthly average transaction amount for the total category has increased by 4 percentage points in July 2023 when compared with June 2023, and increased by 5 percentage points when compared with July 2022. 

In July 2023, the average transaction amount increased for the fitness facilities, mortgages and loans categories by 2, 2 and 1 percentage points, respectively, when compared with the previous month, while the electricity and gas category decreased by 5 percentage points. The average transaction amount for the water category remained largely unchanged.  

The absolute average transaction amount for mortgages has been rising steadily, with the monthly average transaction amount increasing by £148, from £718 in December 2021, to £866 in July 2023. This is an increase of almost 21% since December 2021, the month that coincides with the first interest rate increase announced by the Bank of England.

The Direct Debit failure rate for the total category remained largely unchanged in July 2023, when compared with June 2023. However, it has increased by 22% when compared with July 2022, and doubled since its lowest point in May 2020. 

The Direct Debit failure rate increased for the electricity and gas, loans, fitness facilities, and mortgages categories by 9%, 7%, 7% and 1%, respectively in July 2023, when compared with the previous month. The water category was the only category to see a decrease, with the Direct Debit failure rate decreasing by 4% when compared with June 2023.  

The electricity and gas Direct Debit failure rate in July 2023 has increased by five times since its lowest point in February 2019. In July 2023, the Direct Debit failure rate in the mortgages category was almost triple the value from June 2020, the lowest point within the available data. 

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available. 

UK spending on debit and credit cards: daily CHAPS-based indicator 

The aggregate CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases increased by 5 points from the previous week in the week to 3 August 2023, and was unchanged compared with the same week in 2022. 

UK spending on debit and credit cards: monthly CHAPS-based indicator 

The monthly CHAPS-based aggregate index can provide an indication of the direction of retail sales data, having followed similar trends since the CHAPS index was established in January 2020. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes retail sales data around the middle of each month, approximately two weeks after the monthly CHAPS index is published in this bulletin. 

This week, we are presenting seasonally adjusted monthly CHAPS aggregate data for the second time.

The seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly CHAPS-based indicator of aggregate credit and debit card spending fell by 2% in July 2023, compared with June 2023, and was broadly unchanged compared with July 2022. These data are unadjusted for the impact of inflation or changes in card versus cash use over time. 

The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) monthly CHAPS aggregate indicator for July 2023 was broadly unchanged compared with July 2022. The spending categories showed the following changes over the same period:  

• "social" increased by 6 points 

• "staple" increased by 2 points 

• "delayable" was broadly unchanged  

• "work-related" decreased by 13 points 

The monthly and daily CHAPS indices are available in our accompanying UK spending on credit and debit cards dataset, which includes methodological notes that users should take into consideration. The monthly CHAPS index is calculated by the ONS, rather than being an additional series that is produced and validated by the Bank of England. 

Revolut spending on debit cards  

Revolut debit card spending increased by 4 percentage points in the week to 6 August 2023, when compared with the previous week, with five out of the six sector categories increasing in the period. "Automotive fuel" spending had the largest increase of 7 percentage points, followed by "retail" and "food and drink" at 6 percentage points and 5 percentage points, respectively. "Travel and accommodation" spending had the smallest increase of 2 percentage points in the week, with entertainment being the only sector to experience a decrease of 4 percentage points.  

Total Revolut debit card spending was 24 percentage points above the equivalent period in 2022, with all six categories seeing increases in spending. The largest increases were in "retail" and "food and drink" spending, rising by 41 percentage points and 27 percentage points, respectively. 

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.  

National retail footfall 

National retail footfall figures are supplied by Springboard, a provider of data on customer activity. Overall retail footfall fell slightly in the week to 6 August 2023, down to 99% of the level of the previous week but remained unchanged from the equivalent week in 2022. However, it was 90% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019. 

All three location categories remained relatively stable compared with the previous week, with retail parks being the only slight increase at 101% of the previous week. The remaining categories, shopping centres and high streets, both fell slightly at 99% and 98% of the previous week, respectively. Retail parks and shopping centres were both at 105% of the equivalent week of 2022, with high streets at 96%. 

Of the 12 UK countries and English regions, seven saw a decrease in overall retail footfall when compared with the previous week, two remained unchanged, while Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland all showed an increase, at 102%, 101% and 101%, respectively. The largest decrease occurred in the North East, which was 94% of the previous week. 

Automotive fuel spending 

In the week to 30 July 2023, the estimated demand for fuel per transaction decreased by 6 percentage points, when compared with the previous week. This estimated level of demand is 20 percentage points above the equivalent week of 2022. 

Average fuel prices are 2 percentage points higher than the previous week, but 63 percentage points below the equivalent week of 2022. Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

System Average Price (SAP) of gas  

Following a week of price increase, the SAP of gas decreased by 2% in the week to 6 August 2023. This latest price is 75% below the level seen in the equivalent week of 2022 and 86% below the peak level seen in late August 2022. Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset is available. 

System Price of electricity  

In the week to 6 August 2023, the System Price of electricity fell by 9% compared with the previous week, 69% below the level seen in the equivalent week of 2022. This price is 84% below the peak level seen in late August 2022. Our accompanying System Price of electricity dataset is available.

Road traffic for Great Britain 

This bulletin will no longer publish road traffic levels for Great Britain. These statistics are provided by the Department for Transport (DfT) and can be found on their Daily domestic transport use by mode webpage. 

Traffic camera activity 

Average traffic camera activity for cars in London in the week to 6 August 2023 was 97% of the level of the previous week, this was 106% of the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level. Pedestrian and cyclist activity in London was 98% when compared with the level of the previous week and was 118% of the pre-coronavirus level. Our accompanying Traffic camera activity dataset is available. 

Daily UK flights  

The average number of UK flights was 6,061 in the week to 6 August 2023. This was broadly unchanged from the previous week and remains at 9% higher than the equivalent period last year. However, the average number of UK flights was 9% lower than the equivalent week of 2019. Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

This section lists a selection of the data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator 

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Information on the methodology used to produce the indicators in this bulletin is available in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or Experimental Statistics. 

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability. 

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions 

Coronavirus restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin. 

Seasonality 

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.