Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 11 November 2021

• The number of seasonally adjusted new VAT reporters in October 2021 increased by 9% from September 2021 and was notably higher than the 2015 to 2019 longer-term average (HM Revenue and Customs VAT returns). Section 3.

• Shelf availability of items between 5 November and 8 November 2021 were lowest for the “frozen turkeys” category, with 18% of this item's availability marked as none or low; shelf availability was the highest for the “beer” category, as 68% of this item was recorded as being high availability (Kantar Public). Section 4.

• In Wave 43, 29% of businesses reported a decrease in turnover in the last month, compared with normal expectations for this time of year; this is a 5 percentage point increase from Wave 41 (initial results from Wave 43 of Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)). Section 5.

• In the week to 6 November 2021, after higher figures the previous week because of half-term across England and Wales, overall retail footfall in the UK decreased by 9% and was at 87% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019; this was caused by falls in High Street, Retail Park and Shopping Centre footfall (Springboard).

• The system average price (SAP) of gas decreased by 11% in the week to 7 November 2021, which was the largest week-on-week decrease since February 2021; however, the SAP of gas remains 288% higher than the February 2021 level (National Grid). See the accompanying dataset.

• The total volume of online job adverts on 5 November 2021 increased by 4% from the previous week, to 147% of its February 2020 average level (Adzuna). See the accompanying dataset.

• The highest level of job adverts relative to February 2020 continues to be in the “transport, logistics and warehouse” category, at 423%, which is an 18 percentage point increase from the previous week and likely reflects the strong demand in this category in the run up to Christmas (Adzuna). See the accompanying dataset.

• In the week to 4 November 2021, the aggregate CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases increased by 5 percentage points from the previous week, to 105% of its February 2020 average (Bank of England CHAPS data). See the accompanying dataset.

• There was an increase across all spending categories this week; “staple” by 9 percentage points (partly from monthly cyclical effects), “work related” by 5 points (bringing this indicator close to pre-fuel crisis levels), “delayable” by 4 points and “social” by 2 points (Bank of England CHAPS data). See the accompanying dataset.

• The seven-day average estimate of UK seated diners in the week to 8 November 2021 was 116% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019, which is a 13 percentage point decrease from the previous week, and follows four consecutive weekly increases (OpenTable).

• There was an average of 264 daily ship visits in the week to 7 November 2021, a 3% fall from the previous week; the average number of daily cargo and tanker ship visits fell by 2% to 86 (exactEarth). See the accompanying dataset.

• The seven-day average number of UK daily flights was 3,458 in the week ending 7 November 2021, which is 62% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2019 (EUROCONTROL). See the accompanying dataset.

• Transactions at Pret A Manger stores in the week ending 4 November 2021 remained lowest when compared with their January averages in London airport and London city stores at 77% and 86%, respectively (Pret A Manger).

• There were 14,660 company incorporations in the week to 5 November 2021, an increase of 3% from the previous week and a 15% increase from the equivalent week of 2019 (12,733) (Companies House). See the accompanying dataset.

• There were 5,848 voluntary dissolution applications (an application from a company to dissolve) in the week to 5 November 2021, an increase of 3% from the previous week and a 2% increase from the equivalent week of 2019 (5,750) (Companies House). See the accompanying dataset.

• There were 20,552 compulsory dissolution first gazettes (a notice issued by Companies House indicating their intention to remove a company from the register) in the week to 2 November 2021 (Companies House). See the accompanying dataset.

• In the week ending 7 November 2021, the seasonally adjusted average count of traffic camera activity for cars in London remained broadly similar to the previous week, at 112% of the average level seen in the week before the first UK-wide lockdown (week ending 22 March 2020) (Transport for London). See the accompanying dataset.

• The volume of motor vehicle traffic on 8 November 2021 was at 96% of its level in the first week of February 2020, unchanged for the third consecutive week (Department for Transport).

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Notes:

1. Users should note that the break in the available shipping data (from 14 to 19 June 2021) is when the data collection system changed.

New reporters

The new reporters index measures the number of UK firms sending value-added tax (VAT) returns to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) for the first time, which is related to the number of business creations.

There were 23,420 new VAT reporters in the UK in October 2021, an increase of 9% from 21,570 in September 2021. This was notably higher than the 2015 to 2019 longer-term average (20,886).

The number of new reporters in the construction industry rose by 13% from 3,110 in September 2021 to 3,510 in October 2021. In the services industry, there were 18,120 new VAT reporters in October 2021, a 7% increase from the 16,890 reported in September 2021.

The figures explained in this section refer to seasonally adjusted data. Non-seasonally adjusted data are available in the accompanying dataset.

Business turnover estimates

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or decrease in turnover in their VAT returns. They are calculated as the percentage of firms with increasing turnover minus the percentage with decreasing turnover.

The heatmap in Figure 2 is a visual way of showing the VAT diffusion indices based on the standard deviation from their historical 2008 to 2019 average. Larger deviations are more darkly coloured, with red representing a negative change, while teal represents a positive change when compared with the previous period.

Figure 2: An equal number of firms reported increasing turnover as those that reported decreasing turnover in September 2021

Heatmap of business turnover estimates, UK, diffusion index standard deviation from the mean, up to September 2021. New reporters, UK, up to October 2021

Notes:

1. Agri - Agriculture, forestry and fishing, All - All industries, SA - Seasonally adjusted.
2. More information is available in the methodology article.

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The month-on-month, all-industry turnover estimate for September 2021 shows that in the past month, out of 39,000 firms, an equal number of firms (net 0%) reported increasing turnover as those that reported decreasing turnover.

A net 2% of firms in the construction industry reported decreasing turnover in September 2021. This is the seventh consecutive month where more firms have reported decreasing turnover than increasing turnover. A net 1% of firms in the production industry reported decreasing turnover in the last month.

In the service industry, a net 2% of firms reported increasing turnover in September 2021. Meanwhile, in the agricultural industry in the last month, an equal number of firms (net 0%) reported increasing turnover as those that reported decreasing turnover.

The figures explained in this section refer to seasonally adjusted data. Non-seasonally adjusted data are available in the accompanying dataset.

Shelf availability research for shops across the UK has been undertaken by Kantar Public. Collectors gathered information on a range of items from up to three different stores across multiple locations, recording availability across four categories: "none", "low", "medium", or "high". It is important to note these categories are subjective as they are recorded by individual collectors. The data were collected between 5 and 8 November 2021. This new series will be updated weekly.

Users should be aware that this is the second week of reporting this indicator; therefore, these data should be treated with caution.

In the current period (5 to 8 November 2021), the overall proportion of observations for all items recorded as “high” was 52%; this was broadly similar to the previous four-day period (29 October to 1 November 2021). Observations for all items recorded at “none” or “low” was 9%, also remaining broadly similar compared with the previous period.

Across the four included availability categories, the largest proportion of observations recorded as ‘“high” was “beer” at 68%; the lowest category was “milk” at 39%. The highest proportion items with availability recorded as either “none” or “low” were “frozen turkey” and “sparkling water”, at 18% and 17%, respectively.

Data for all categories are available in the accompanying dataset.

Initial results from Wave 43 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) cover the reference period 18 October to 9 November 2021, with a response rate of 19.7% (7,505 responses). The survey was live for the period 1 to 9 November 2021.

Faster indicator

A faster indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Company incorporations

Incorporations are when a company is added to the Companies House register of limited companies. This can also include where an existing business applies to become a limited company, where it was not one before.

Voluntary dissolution applications

A voluntary dissolution application is when a company applies to begin dissolution proceedings. As such, they effectively choose to be removed from the Companies House register. For a company to be eligible to voluntarily dissolve, it should not have completed any trading activity for a period of three months.

Compulsory dissolutions

When a company fails to file the required financial accounts and/or confirmation statements, if no contact is received by Companies House following a series of letters to the company and its officers, a first gazette notice is published in the Gazette, a notice of the Registrar's intention to dissolve the company.

Diffusion index

The diffusion index tracks the growth in turnover and expenditure of firms. It is constructed to lie between negative 1 and 1. For example, if 65% of firms have increasing turnover, 30% have decreasing turnover and 5% turnover remains unchanged, then the diffusion index is 0.35.

New reporter

A new reporter is defined as a firm with a Value Added Tax (VAT) reference (that is, firm identification number), which has not previously reported its VAT returns. New reporters are published within one month of the end of the reporting period. The new reporting behaviour measure is classified by the month the data were received by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), known as the receipt date; this is not necessarily the same as the reference period (the period for which the VAT return is made).

UK coronavirus restrictions

A full overview of coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions for each of the four UK constituent countries can be found here:

• England
• Scotland
• Wales
• Northern Ireland

These restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin.

Pret A Manger index

The index shows total weekly till transactions at Pret A Manger stores as a proportion of the companies’ average weekly level in the first four weeks of 2020 (between 3 January 2020 and 30 January 2020).

These data are delivered weekly from Friday to Thursday in a week-ending format.

The index is broken down by region:

• Yorkshire
• London: Suburban (stores within Greater London but outside zones 1 & 2)
• London: City (Key Office Areas)
• London: West End (Key Retail Areas)
• London: Airports (4 Major Airports in London)
• London: Stations (3 Large Train Stations in London)
• Manchester
• Scotland
• Regional Towns (stores in towns not included in this index)
• Regional Stations (stores in stations in towns not included in this index)

These regions have been selected because there are limited numbers of Pret A Manger stores in some areas of the UK. For example, at the time of index creation, there were two stores open in Leeds and two in York, leading to these being grouped together as “Yorkshire”.

Wales is omitted from the index as it has a low number of stores. Regional towns include shops in towns other than those listed.

Information on the strengths and limitations of the indicators in this bulletin is available in the Coronavirus and the latest indicators of the UK economy and society methodology.