Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 13 June 2024

• The seasonally adjusted total Direct Debit failure rate increased by 2% in May 2024 when compared with April 2024, and increased by 12% when compared with May 2023 (Vocalink and Pay.UK). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The seasonally adjusted monthly average Direct Debit transaction amount spent on electricity and gas continued to decrease, falling to 17% below the level seen in May 2023 (Vocalink and Pay.UK). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• Following the May Bank holiday and school half term, overall retail footfall decreased by 6% in the week to 9 June 2024 when compared with the previous week, and was 1% below the level in the equivalent week of 2023 (MRI OnLocation). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The total number of online job adverts on 7 June 2024 increased by 1% from the level in the previous week but was 20% below the equivalent period of 2023 (Adzuna). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• In the week to 9 June 2024, the System Price of electricity and the System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased by 29% and 1%, respectively, when compared with the previous week; the System Price of electricity was 44% lower, while the SAP of gas was 20% higher when compared with the equivalent week of 2023 (Elexon, National Gas Transmission). Section 5: Energy.

• In the week to 9 June 2024, the daily average number of UK flights remained broadly unchanged when compared with the previous week, and was 4% higher than the equivalent week of 2023 (EUROCONTROL). Section 6: Transport.

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly.
3. Indicators with SA in the title have been seasonally adjusted.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

The seasonally adjusted total Direct Debit failure rate in May 2024 increased by 2% when compared with the previous month. The main contribution to this came from increases in the "Electricity and gas" and "Water" spending categories, rising by 4% and 2%, respectively. When compared with May 2023, the total Direct Debit failure rate increased by 12%, influenced by year-on-year increases in the “Electricity and Gas” and “Water” spending categories, which rose by 29% and 26%, respectively.

In May 2024, the seasonally adjusted total monthly average Direct Debit transaction amount remained broadly unchanged when compared with April 2024, however we continued to see increases in the "Water" and "Mortgages" spending categories.

When compared with May 2023, the seasonally adjusted total monthly average Direct Debit transaction amount increased by 5%. The main contribution to this increase came from annual growth in the "Water" and "Mortgages" spending category. However, the seasonally adjusted monthly average Direct Debit transaction amount spent on "Electricity and gas" in May 2024 continued to follow the month-on-month decline since the peak a year ago, falling to 17% below the level seen in May 2023.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

Automotive fuel spending

The annual growth rate in the estimated demand for fuel per transaction was negative 2% in the week to 2 June 2024. This was a decrease of 1 percentage point when compared with the previous week and was 7 percentage points lower than in the equivalent week of 2023.

The annual growth rate in average fuel prices was 4% in the week to 2 June 2024. This was broadly unchanged compared with the previous week and was 21 percentage points higher than in the equivalent week of 2023.

Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

National retail footfall

In the week to 9 June 2024, overall retail footfall decreased by 6% when compared with the previous week, returning to normal levels after the May bank holiday and school half term. This was 1% below the level in the equivalent week of 2023.

All three location categories saw decreased footfall when compared with the previous week, with the largest decrease seen in shopping centres, which fell by 9%. When compared with the equivalent week in 2023, the largest decrease was seen in high streets, which fell by 2%. Retail parks was the only location category to see increased footfall, with a 1% rise when compared with the equivalent period last year.

Overall retail footfall decreased in 11 out of 12 UK countries and English regions when compared with the previous week. The largest decrease was seen in South West England, which fell by 11%, followed by Wales at 9%.

When compared with the equivalent week of 2023, 8 out of 12 UK countries and English regions saw a decrease in overall retail footfall, with four remaining broadly unchanged. The largest decrease was seen in Wales, which fell to 7% below the level seen in the equivalent week of 2023.

Transactions at Pret A Manger

In the week to 30 May 2024, the number of transactions at Pret A Manger stores decreased in 8 of the 10 location categories when compared with the previous week. The largest decreases were seen in the Manchester and London City Worker stores, with both location categories falling by 20%.

Compared with the equivalent week of 2023, the number of in-store transactions at Pret A Manger decreased in 9 of the 10 location categories. The location categories with the largest decreases were the Scotland and Manchester stores, with both location categories falling by 20%.

Our accompanying Transactions at Pret A Manger dataset is available.

Online job adverts

Figure 4: In the latest week, the total number of online job adverts increased by 1% when compared with the previous week, but was 20% lower than in the equivalent period of 2023

Volume of online job adverts, non-seasonally adjusted, UK, 7 February 2018 to 7 June 2024

Notes:

1. These estimates of online job adverts are provided by Adzuna, an online job search engine, and are an indicator for the demand of labour.
   
2. Week-on-week changes in online job advert volumes are outlined as percentages, rather than as percentage-point changes. Percentage-change figures quoted in the commentary will therefore not necessarily match the percentage-point changes observed in the chart and in our Online job advert estimates dataset.
   
3. Further category breakdowns are available in our Online job advert estimates dataset, and more details on the methodology are in our Using Adzuna data to derive an indicator of weekly vacancies methodology.

The total number of online job adverts on 7 June 2024 increased by 1% when compared with the previous week, with increases seen in 11 of the 12 UK countries and English regions. The largest week-on-week increase was in the North East, rising by 3%.

The total number of online job adverts fell by 20% when compared with the equivalent period of 2023, with the figure for all UK countries and English regions decreasing. The largest year-on-year decrease was in Scotland, falling by 31%.

When compared with the equivalent period of 2023, the total number of online job adverts fell in 25 of the 28 job categories. The categories with the largest decreases were "Admin, clerical and secretarial" and "Construction and trades", which fell by 51% and 49%, respectively.

Our accompanying Online job advert estimates dataset is available.

Business impact and insights

Initial results from Wave 110 of our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) statistical bulletin were collected from 3 June to 11 June 2024, with a response rate of 22.9% (8,917 responses).

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

Calculated as a four-week rolling average, the number of potential redundancies in the week to 2 June 2024 was 34% higher than the level in the equivalent week of 2023. The number of employers proposing redundancies was 18% higher when compared with the same period.

Comparisons with the equivalent period a year ago help account for any seasonal impacts. For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset is available.

System Average Price of gas 

In the week to 9 June 2024, the System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased by 1% when compared with the previous week, from a seven-day average price of 2.86 pence per kilowatt hour to 2.82 pence per kilowatt hour. This was 20% higher than the equivalent week of 2023, which had an SAP of 2.35 pence per kilowatt hour.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset is available.

System Price of electricity

In the week to 9 June 2024, the System Price of electricity decreased by 29% when compared with the previous week, from a seven-day average price of 7.03 pence per kilowatt hour to 5.01 pence per kilowatt hour. This is 44% below the equivalent week of 2023, which had a System Price of 8.88 pence per kilowatt hour.

Our accompanying System Price of electricity dataset is available.

Daily UK flights

In the week to 9 June 2024, the daily average number of UK flights remained broadly unchanged when compared with the previous week and was 4% higher than the equivalent week of 2023.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

This section lists a selection of the data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series that is associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as "official statistics in development". Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Read more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide whether the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or whether further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. Contact us at realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in the following list. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency because of a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets or previous release dates, please email: realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release

• The UK spending on credit and debit cards dataset was last updated on 16 May 2024.

• The Revolut spending on debit cards dataset was last updated on 1 February 2024.

• The Automotive Fuel spending dataset was last updated on 13 June 2024.

• The Online job advert estimates dataset was last updated on 13 June 2024.

• The Company incorporations, voluntary dissolutions and compulsory dissolutions dataset was last updated on 13 June 2024.

• The Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset was last updated on 13 June 2024.

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas dataset was last updated on 13 June 2024.

• The System Price of electricity dataset was last updated on 13 June 2024.

• The Traffic camera activity dataset was last updated on 16 May 2024.

• The Weekly shipping indicators dataset was last updated on 5 April 2024.

• The Daily UK flights dataset was last updated on 13 June 2024.

Fortnightly data release

• The Transactions at Pret A Manger dataset was last updated on 13 June 2024.

Monthly data release

• The Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset was last updated on 13 June 2024.

• The Value Added Tax (VAT), flash estimates dataset was last updated on 18 April 2024.

• The Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset was last updated on 6 June 2024.

• The Sales and jobs in small businesses dataset was last updated on 2 May 2024.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official Statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.