Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 14 September 2023

• Consumer behaviour indicators generally showed decreased activity in the latest week, Revolut debit card spending fell by 11 percentage points when compared with the previous week, with a notable 21 percentage point fall in "Automotive fuel" spending; meanwhile overall UK retail footfall decreased to 96% of the previous week, coinciding with the end of the school summer holidays and the previous week containing the Summer Bank Holiday across much of the UK (Revolut, Springboard). Section 3: Consumer Behaviour.

• Of trading businesses, 14% experienced an increase in turnover in August 2023 compared with the previous month, the lowest level this has been in 2023, however, 18% expect an increase in turnover in October 2023 (initial results from Wave 91 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• Compared with the previous week, the total number of online job adverts increased slightly by 2% on 8 September 2023 but was 5% below the level seen in the equivalent period of 2022; when looking over the year to date, the total number of online job adverts on 8 September 2023 was 8% lower than in mid-March, when the series was at its highest point this year. Section 4: Business and workforce.

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased 7% in the latest week, whereas the System Price of electricity increased by 7%; both values were below the peak of late August 2022, with the SAP of gas and System Price of electricity 83% and 80% lower than the peak level, respectively (National Gas Transmission, Elexon). Section 5: Energy.

• The daily average number of UK flights increased by 3% in the week to 10 September 2023 but was 8% lower than the equivalent week of 2019; average traffic camera activity for cars in London remained unchanged from the previous week and was 107% of the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level (EUROCONTROL, Transport for London). Section 6: Transport.

Notes:

1. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly. 

2. Users should note that card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.

Users should note that some of our consumer behaviour indicators will have been affected by the end of the school summer holidays across much of the UK and the previous week containing the Summer Bank Holiday.

UK Spending on debit and credit cards: daily CHAPS based indicator

These data series are experimental real-time indicators for estimating UK spending on credit and debit cards. They track the daily CHAPS payments made by credit and debit card payment processors to around 100 major UK retail corporates. These payments are the proceeds of recent credit and debit card transactions made by customers at their stores, both via physical and online platforms. More information on the indicator is provided in the accompanying  Guide to the Bank of England's UK spending on credit and debit cards experimental data series.

Companies are allocated to one of four categories based on their primary business:  

• "staples" refers to companies that sell essential goods that households need to purchase, such as food and utilities
• "work-related" refers to companies providing public transport or selling petrol
• "delayable" refers to companies selling goods whose purchase could be delayed, such as clothing or furnishings
• "social" refers to spending on travel and eating out

Figure 1 shows changes in the value of CHAPS payments received by large UK corporates from their credit and debit card processors, "merchant acquirers". 

The spending categories recorded the following changes in the latest week:

• "staple" increased by 5 points
• "work-related" increased by 5 points
• "social" remained unchanged
• "delayable" decreased by 9 points

When compared with the same week in 2022, the spending categories recorded the following changes:

• "staple" increased by 6 points
• "social" increased by 3 points
• "delayable" increased by 3 points
• "work-related" increased by 1 point

The full data time series available for data on UK spending on debit and credit cards can be found in the accompanying dataset.  

Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount

This week we are publishing the Direct Debit average transaction and failure rate within the Real-time indicators suite. These are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to us by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and therefore reflect economic activity in nominal terms. See the methodology guidance for further details on what is covered within this indicator.

The total monthly average Direct Debit transaction amount remained broadly unchanged in August 2023 compared with July 2023, and increased by 3 percentage points when compared with August 2022.

The total Direct Debit failure rate in August 2023 remained broadly unchanged when compared with the previous month, having remained broadly unchanged since March 2023. However, this rate increased by 14% when compared with August 2022.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

Revolut spending on debit cards

In the week to 10 September 2023, Revolut debit card spending decreased by 11 percentage points when compared with the previous week. All spending categories saw a decrease, with the largest being "automotive fuel" and "retail" falling by 21 and 18 percentage points, respectively.

Total Revolut debit card spending was 20 percentage points above the equivalent period in 2022, with all six spending categories seeing an increase, the largest being "food and drink" at 32 percentage points.

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

National retail footfall

National retail footfall figures are supplied by Springboard, a provider of data on customer activity. The breakdowns in this indicator are as follows:

• overall footfall, which is the sum of the average footfall in each destination type weighted by their respective footfall volumes

• shopping centre, which is a space that does not form part of the public highway, and is owned and managed by a single landlord

• high street, which is the central part of the main business and commercial area of a town

• retail parks and shopping parks, which comprise retail warehouse units, wholly owned and managed by a single landlord

Springboard's weekly data are defined over a seven-day period running from Monday to Sunday. Week 36 of 2023 refers to the period of Monday 4 September to Sunday 10 September 2023. All quoted figures have been rounded to the nearest integer.

Overall retail footfall levels decreased to 96% of the level of the previous week, coinciding with the end of the summer holidays and children returning to schools across the UK. The level was 102% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2022, but only 89% of the level seen in the equivalent period of 2019.

Shopping centres, retail parks, and high streets, saw a decrease in footfall compared with the previous week, at 91%, 95% and 98%, respectively. All location categories were at or above the level observed in the equivalent week of 2022.

Transactions at Pret A Manger

In the latest week, Pret A Manger activity is likely to have been affected by the summer bank holiday on 28 August 2023. 

In the week to 31 August 2023, the number of in-store transactions at Pret A Manger stores decreased in all location categories when compared with the previous week for the first time since the week to 11 May. The largest decrease was in Manchester, where transactions fell by 15 percentage points, followed by London city worker locations decreasing by 10 percentage points.

Compared with the equivalent period of 2022, transactions at Pret A Manger stores increased in eight location categories and decreased in two. London airports and regional towns were 23 and 19 percentage points higher, respectively. London stations and Yorkshire decreased by 9 and 4 percentage points, respectively. Our accompanying Transactions at Pret A Manger dataset is available.

Online job adverts

These figures are experimental estimates of online job adverts by category, UK country, and English region, provided by Adzuna, an online job search engine. The number of job adverts over time is an indicator of the demand for labour. The Adzuna categories used do not correspond to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) categories, so these values are not directly comparable with our Vacancy Survey.

Compared with the previous week, the total number of online job adverts increased slightly by 2% on 8 September 2023 but was 5% below the level seen in the equivalent period of 2022. When looking over the year to date, the total number of online job adverts on 8 September 2023 was 8% lower than in mid-March,  when the series was at its highest point this year.

In the previous week, 13 of the 28 job categories increased, 6 stayed the same and 9 categories decreased.  The largest increases in the week were in the “Graduate” and “Wholesale and retail” categories which both grew by 8%, while the largest decrease was in the “Legal” category which fell by 7% in the week.

The total number of online job adverts was 5% lower than the equivalent period of 2022, with 23 of the 28 online job categories below their level of a year ago.  The "Human Resources (HR) and Recruitment" category saw the largest decrease at 38%, closely followed by "Domestic help" at 36%.

In the latest week, the number of online job adverts grew in 11 of the 12 UK countries and English regions, with Scotland showing the largest increase at 5%. The East of England was the only region to decrease in this period, falling slightly by 1%. 

Compared with the equivalent period of 2022, Scotland was unchanged while all other UK countries and English regions were below their level of a year ago. The largest fall continues to be in the East Midlands, where job adverts fell by 19%.

For further details, see our accompanying Online job advert estimates dataset.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

Calculated as a rolling four-week average, the number of potential redundancies in the week to 3 September 2023 was 148% above the level in the equivalent week of 2022. The number of employers proposing redundancies was 28% above the level in the equivalent week of 2022.

Comparisons with the equivalent period a year ago help account for any seasonal impacts. For more information, see our Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset.

Business impact and insights

Initial results from Wave 91 of our statistical bulletin Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) were collected from 4 September to 12 September 2023, with a response rate of 24.0% (9,326 responses).

System Price of electricity

In the week to 10 September 2023, the System Price of electricity increased by 7% compared with the previous week and was 80% below the peak level seen in late August 2022. For further details, see our accompanying System Price of electricity dataset. 

System Average Price (SAP) of gas 

The SAP of gas decreased for the second consecutive week, falling by 7% in the week to 10 September 2023. This latest price is 83% below the peak seen in late August 2022 but 245% above the February 2020 baseline. Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset is available.

Daily UK flights

In the week to 10 September 2023, the daily average number of UK flights was 6,135, which was 3% higher than the previous week. In addition, the daily average number of UK flights was 9% higher than the equivalent period of 2022, but still 8% lower than the equivalent week of 2019.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Traffic camera activity

Average traffic camera activity for cars in London in the week to 10 September 2023 remained unchanged from the previous week and was 107% of the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level. Pedestrian and cyclist levels in London were 10% lower than the level in the previous week and 101% of the pre-coronavirus level. Our accompanying Traffic camera activity dataset is available.

This section lists a selection of the data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator 

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Information on the methodology used to produce the indicators in this bulletin is available in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or Experimental Statistics. 

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability. 

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions 

Coronavirus restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin. 

Seasonality 

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.