Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 16 June 2022

• The total volume of online job adverts on 10 June 2022 was 129% of its February 2020 pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) average level, with decreases across all English regions and UK countries compared to three weeks prior (Adzuna). Section 3.

• Over a quarter of businesses (26%) reported input price inflation was their main concern when looking ahead to July 2022, which is broadly stable with the figure reported for May 2022; the proportion of businesses looking ahead with no concerns for July 2022 increased to 24% from the 21% reported for May 2022 (final results from Wave 58 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)).

• Consumer behaviour indicators largely showed falls this week, with UK credit and debit card purchases decreasing by 6 percentage points, and visits to "retail and recreation" falling by 12%, while the number of transactions decreased in most Pret A Manger locations (Bank of England CHAPS data, Google Mobility, Pret A Manger). Section 4.

• Transport indicators showed a mixed picture this week with total ship visits, and cargo and tanker ship visits decreasing by 2% and 4%, respectively; meanwhile daily UK flights and road traffic increased by 2% and 3 percentage points, respectively (exactEarth, EUROCONTROL, Department for Transport).

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased by 28% in the week to 12 June 2022, falling to 22% of the peak level seen on 10 March 2022 (National Grid).

As we continue to develop our suite of indicators we are now publishing additional breakdowns to the CHAPS monthly indicator dataset, to include the four categories alongside the usual aggregate index.

Users should note that some of the increases and decreases seen in the latest week coincide with the Jubilee bank holidays. These effects are particularly prevalent in the consumer behaviour indicators. 

Notes

1. The break in the available shipping data (from 14 to 19 June 2021) is when the data collection system changed.
2. Online job advert estimates this week are compared with three weeks ago as the previous two weeks have been imputed.
3. For aggregate UK spending on debit and credit cards, Thursday 9 June 2022 is compared with Wednesday 1 June 2022, as there is no data for Thursday 2 June 2022 as it was a bank holiday.
4. Please note that for OpenTable seated diners the comparison period in the equivalent week of 2019 includes Father’s Day.

This week online job adverts are compared with three weeks ago because data for the previous two weeks are imputed. The total volume of online job adverts on 10 June 2022 was 129% of its February 2020 pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) average level, with decreases across all English regions and UK countries compared to three weeks prior.

Potential redundancies were 62% of their pre-coronavirus level in the week to 5 June 2022.

Company incorporations increased by 16% when compared with four weeks ago, while voluntary dissolution applications fell by 6% across the same period. Compared with the equivalent week of 2019, incorporations and voluntary dissolution applications were 35% and 9% higher, respectively. We have avoided week-on-week comparisons this week because of lower activity as a result of the Jubilee bank holidays.

Online job adverts by category

These figures are experimental estimates of online job adverts provided by Adzuna, an online job search engine, by category and by UK country and English region. The number of job adverts over time is an indicator of the demand for labour. The Adzuna categories used do not correspond to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) categories, so these values are not directly comparable with the Office for National Statistics' (ONS) Vacancy Survey.

Figure 1: The total volume of online job adverts on 10 June 2022 was 129% of its February 2020 pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) average level

Volume of online job adverts by category, index: 100 = February 2020 average, 4 January 2019 to 10 June 2022, non-seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. Further category breakdowns are included in the Online job advert estimates dataset and more details on the methodology can be found in Using Adzuna data to derive an indicator of weekly vacancies.

2. Users should note that week-on-week changes in online job advert volumes are outlined as percentages, rather than as percentage point changes. Percentage change figures quoted in the commentary will therefore not necessarily match the percentage point changes observed in the charts and accompanying dataset.

3. This week online job adverts are compared with three weeks ago because data for the previous two weeks are imputed.

Download the data

.xlsx

Of the 28 categories, 25 saw a decrease in the number of online job adverts on Friday 10 June 2022 when compared with three weeks ago. The largest decrease was in "manufacturing" (22%), followed by "facilities and maintenance" (17%). The largest increase compared with three weeks ago was in “wholesale and retail” at 6%.

The category with the highest level of online job adverts when compared with its February 2020 pre-coronavirus pandemic average levels was "domestic help" at 223%, followed by "transport, logistics and warehouse" at 220%.

Job adverts by region

Figure 2: Online job adverts decreased in all regions on 10 June 2022 from three weeks ago; the largest decrease occurred in the East Midlands where they fell by 14%

Volume of online job adverts by UK countries and English regions, index: 100 = February 2020 average, 7 February 2020 to 10 June 2022, non-seasonally adjusted

Download the data

.xlsx

The volume of online job adverts decreased in all English regions and UK countries on 10 June 2022 when compared with three weeks ago. The largest decreases were seen in the East Midlands, the West Midlands and the South West, falling by 14%, 13% and 13%, respectively.

Transactions at Pret A Manger stores decreased in all regional locations in the latest week except London city and Manchester stores, which increased by 10 percentage points and 5 percentage points, respectively. Transactions at regional station stores were broadly unchanged. 

The UK credit and debit card purchases indicator decreased by 6 percentage points to 102% of its February 2020 average in the week to 9 June 2022, with decreases in all spending categories. The largest of these were in "work related" and "delayable", both of which fell by 9 percentage points.

UK seated diners fell by 36 percentage points in the week to 12 June 2022, following the growth of 17 percentage points in the previous week (to 5 June 2022), to 107% of the level in the equivalent week of 2019. Similarly, seated diners decreased by 12 percentage points in London and 38 percentage points in Manchester over the same period, to 79% and 104%, respectively of their level in the equivalent week of 2019.

Please note that for OpenTable seated diners the comparison period in the equivalent week of 2019 includes Father’s Day.

Google Mobility data showed that visits to "retail and recreation" fell by 12% in the week to 10 June 2022 and are 86% of their pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels.

Transactions at Pret A Manger

Pret A Manger is a sandwich and coffee shop franchise chain, operating around 400 stores across the UK. Its transactional data are presented as an index and show total weekly till transactions at Pret A Manger shops as a proportion of the average weekly level in the first four weeks of 2020 (between Friday 3 January and Thursday 30 January 2020). Because of this comparison across the data time series, users should expect an element of seasonality in the data.

More information on the areas featured is available in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology. These data are also made available every Tuesday through the Bloomberg Pret Index.

Yorkshire continued to have the highest number of transactions compared with its January 2020 average, at 120%.

Manchester and London city worker stores saw week-on-week increases of 5 and 10 percentage points, respectively, while all other store locations saw falls across the same period.

Users should note that this section lists a selection of the data available with this publication. For the full list of available datasets please see the accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Information on the methodology used to produce the indicators in this bulletin is available in the Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions

A full overview of coronavirus restrictions for each of the four UK constituent countries can be found in the:

• coronavirus in England guidance

• coronavirus in Scotland guidance

• coronavirus in Wales guidance

• coronavirus in Northern Ireland guidance

Users should consider these restrictions when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin. 

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.