Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 17 November 2022

• Consumer behaviour indicators showed mixed activity in the latest week with Revolut debit card transaction spending data falling in all but one of the reported sectors, while retail footfall increased to 104% of the level of the previous week; elsewhere the change in the number of in-store transactions at Pret A Manger varied between locations (Revolut, Springboard, Pret A Manger). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• Nearly half (46%) of trading businesses reported an increase in the price of goods or services bought in October 2022 compared with September 2022 (final results from Wave 69 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS)).

• The number of UK online job adverts increased in 18 of the 28 online job advert categories and 11 of the 12 UK countries and English regions on 11 November 2022 when compared to the previous week (Adzuna). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas fell by 9% in the week to 13 November 2022; this was 47% below the level of the equivalent week of 2021 and was 81% below the weekly peak level recorded on 28 August 2022 (National Grid).

• Road traffic levels were broadly stable in the week to 14 November 2022, as well as in comparison with the equivalent day of last year (Monday 15 November 2021); levels for cars and light goods vehicles remained broadly unchanged on the previous week, while heavy goods vehicles traffic levels increased by 2 percentage points (Department for Transport).

Notes:

1. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly.
2. Users should note that card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.

In the week to 10 November 2022, the aggregate CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases was broadly unchanged from the previous week at 103% of its February 2020 average. Our accompanying dataset: UK spending on credit and debit cards is available.

Revolut debit card transaction data showed decreased spending in all but one of the reported sectors in the week to 13 November 2022, with "retail" having the largest decrease of 7 percentage points. "Travel and accommodation" was the only sector to see an increase in spending, of 9 percentage points from the previous week.

All categories except "travel and accommodation" were up on the equivalent period of last year, with "automotive fuel" having the largest increase of 30 percentage points, followed by "food and drink" and "retail", increasing by 18 and 17 percentage points respectively. Despite increased activity compared with last year, "entertainment" spending is the only category that is still yet to return to pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels. After peaking on 5 June 2022 at 99% of its February 2020 average, it is now at 78%. Our accompanying dataset: Revolut spending on debit cards is available.

Overall retail footfall increased in the week to 13 November 2022, to 104% of the level of the previous week. Footfall in high streets was largely responsible for this increase, at 107% of the level in the previous week, as footfall in shopping centres and retail parks were 102% and 100% of the level of the previous week, respectively.

Retail footfall in Wales and Northern Ireland decreased in the latest week but increased in the remaining 10 UK countries and English regions. The largest of these increases was in the North West, at 107% of the level in the previous week. Footfall in retail parks was closest to 2019 levels in the week to 13 November 2022, at 97%, while footfall in shopping centres was lowest at 82% of the 2019 level.

The number of in-store transactions at Pret A Manger showed a mixed picture in the week to 10 November 2022. It increased at five locations and decreased at four locations, while Yorkshire was broadly unchanged. The largest increase was at Manchester stores, where transactions increased by 5 percentage points. The biggest falls were seen at regional and London stations, where transactions fell by 18 and 16 percentage points respectively. These falls coincided with widespread rail disruption caused by the Tube strike on Thursday 10 November 2022 and disruption following the late cancellation of rail strikes on Saturday 5, Monday 7 and Wednesday 9 November 2022. Our accompanying dataset: Transactions at Pret A Manger is available.

In the week to 6 November 2022, the estimated demand for fuel per transaction increased by 2 percentage points from the previous week, to 90% of the level seen in the equivalent week of 2021. Average fuel prices were 123% of the level in the equivalent week of 2021, broadly unchanged from the previous three weeks. Our accompanying dataset: Automotive fuel spending is available.

The number of UK online job adverts increased by 2% on 11 November 2022 compared with the previous week, with increases in 18 of the 28 online job advert categories. The largest increase was in the "HR and recruitment" category, which went up by 25%. However, this only returned it to a similar level seen a fortnight ago.

Compared with the equivalent day in 2021, total online job adverts fell by 17%. The largest falls were seen in the "manufacturing", "property", and "marketing, advertising and PR" categories, which were all 38% below this level. Only three of the online job advert categories were above the level seen on the equivalent day of 2021; the largest increase was in the "wholesale and retail" category, which was up 31%.

In the latest week, 11 of the 12 UK countries and English regions saw increases in online job adverts, with Wales remaining broadly unchanged. However, only the levels in Scotland increased from the equivalent week in 2021. Our accompanying dataset: Online job advert estimates is available.

Value Added Tax flash estimates

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or decrease in turnover in their Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. They are calculated as the percentage of firms with increasing turnover minus the percentage with decreasing turnover.

The indices are constructed to lie between 1 and negative 1, so an index of 0.05 means that 5% more firms reported an increase in turnover compared with the previous month than those reporting a decrease in turnover. Conversely, an index of negative 0.05 means that 5% more firms reported a decrease in turnover compared with the previous month.

More information on the compilation and methodology of these estimates can be found in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

The number of firms in the services industry reporting an increase in turnover in October 2022 was equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease. This compares with a net 3% reporting an increase in October 2021. In the production industries, 4% reported an increase in October 2022 compared with 8% in October 2021, and in the construction industry 1% reported an increase in October 2022 compared with 3% reporting a decrease in October 2021. A net 1% of firms in the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry reported decreased turnover in October 2022, which was the same as in October 2021.

Data for all available industries, including seasonally adjusted month-on-month estimates and non-seasonally adjusted month-on-month and month-on-year estimates, for turnover and expenditure, are available in our accompanying dataset: VAT flash estimates.

This section lists a selection of the data available with this publication. For the full list of available datasets please see the accompanying dataset page.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Information on the methodology used to produce the indicators in this bulletin is available in the Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions

Coronavirus restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.