Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 22 June 2023

• For the first time in 2023, energy prices were not the top reported concern for business' when asked about their main concern for the next month; for July 2023, 15% of businesses reported falling demand of goods and services as their main concern (initial results from Wave 85 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey). Section 3: Business and workforce.

• The total number of online job adverts on 16 June 2023 was 4% below the level seen in the equivalent period of 2022, having increased by 2% from the previous week (Adzuna). Section 3: Business and workforce.

• Both the System Average Price (SAP) of gas and System Price of electricity increased in the week to 18 June 2023 compared with the previous week, rising by 29% and 25%, respectively: however, both prices are over 30% below the level seen in the equivalent week of 2022, despite an uptick in price in recent weeks (National Gas Transmission, Elexon). Section 4: Energy and housing.

• Consumer behaviour indicators showed a mixed picture in the latest week, with overall retail footfall at 103% of the level of the previous week, Revolut debit card spending decreased by 1 percentage point and the estimated demand for fuel per transaction remained broadly unchanged (Springboard, Revolut, Automotive fuel spending). Section 5: Consumer behaviour.

• In the week to 18 June 2023, the average number of UK flights was unchanged when compared with the previous week but was 5% higher than the equivalent period last year; this continues the trend of the average number of flights being consistently higher in 2023 to date than the equivalent week of 2022 (EUROCONTROL). Section 6: Transport.

Notes:

1. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly.
2. Users should note that card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.

Online job adverts

These figures are experimental estimates of online job adverts provided by Adzuna, an online job search engine, by category and by UK country and English region. The number of job adverts over time is an indicator of the demand for labour. The Adzuna categories used do not correspond to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) categories, so these values are not directly comparable with our Vacancy Survey.

The total number of online job adverts increased by 2% on 16 June 2023 compared with the previous week, continuing the slight upward trend seen since late April 2023. There were increases in 19 of the 28 online job categories, decreases in seven, and two remained unchanged in the latest week. The "legal" category saw the largest week-on-week increase, rising by 12%, followed by "wholesale and retail" and "other or general" both increasing by 7%.

The total number of online job adverts was 4% lower than the level seen in the equivalent period of 2022. Of the 28 online job categories, 21 were below their levels a year ago. The largest decrease relative to the equivalent period of 2022 continues to be in the "human resources (HR) and recruitment" category, which has fallen by 39%.

Of the 12 UK countries and English regions, nine experienced an increase compared with the previous week, with Wales seeing the largest increase of 3%. However, compared with the equivalent period of 2022, nine regions saw a decrease. The East Midlands saw the largest decrease of 18%, followed by London, which was 14% lower than the equivalent period last year.

Our accompanying Online job advert estimates dataset is available.

Business impact and insights

The Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) collects data from selected industries and does not have full coverage of the UK economy; see our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) QMI for more information on the industries covered in the BICS sample. To enable comparisons, we have created a reweighted gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, termed as GDP*, which only includes the same industries as those covered within the BICS.

Initial results from Wave 85 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) were collected from 12 to 20 June 2023, with a response rate of 25.3% (9,840 responses).

The three main concerns reported by businesses for July 2023 were falling demand of goods and services (15%, up from 12% in the previous month), inflation of goods and services (14%, down from 15% in the previous month) and energy prices (12%, down from 15% in the previous month). The percentage of businesses that reported no concerns increased to 25% from 23% in the previous month.

System Price of electricity

The System Price of electricity, made available by Elexon, is used to settle the difference between contracted generation or consumption of electricity, and actual generation or consumption, in each half-hour trading period in the balancing market. The balancing market is the mechanism used to balance supply and demand in Great Britain's electricity market.

Companies are contracted to generate or consume a certain amount of electricity within each half hour (known as the Settlement Period). However, this may differ from the actual amount generated or consumed. Where companies have generated more or less than the amount of energy their customers consume, this difference is balanced by the UK's National Grid Transmission System, which buys or sells enough electricity to reconcile the difference. The System Price is designed to reflect the cost incurred by National Grid in doing this.

More information about how prices are calculated is available on the Elexon website.

We have taken a daily average of the half-hourly system prices and averaged them again over the preceding seven days to bring out the trends and smooth volatility.

In the week to 18 June 2023, the System Price of electricity increased by 25% compared with the previous week and was 37% below the level in the equivalent week of 2022. This price is 72% lower than the peak level seen in mid-December 2022. Our accompanying System Price of electricity dataset is available.

System Average Price (SAP) of gas

This is the average price of all gas traded through the balancing market. Market participants post bids or offers for volumes of gas a day ahead and within-day trades. The SAP aggregates the trades conducted on the On-the-Day Commodity Market (OCM). This is the market that the National Gas Transmission use in their role as residual balancer. Other markets exist for wholesale gas trading in Great Britain.

These data can be used to understand the general trend of gas prices within the UK. However, the data should be treated with caution, as these can be subject to extreme within-day trading prices and may skew actual traded prices. Additionally, while these prices reflect spot prices on the day, traders can opt for futures contracts where the buyer and the seller agree the market-determined price for gas for a future date. The daily SAP is used to determine the futures price and is therefore a useful indicator of supply constraints and demand pressures.

The SAP of gas grew by 29% in the week to 18 June 2023 when compared with the previous week, this week-on-week increase is the largest we have seen since mid-December 2022. However, this price is 44% below the level seen in the equivalent week of 2022 and 82% below the peak level seen in late August 2022. Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset is available.

UK spending on debit and credit cards

Daily CHAPS based indicator

These data series are experimental real-time indicators for estimating UK spending on credit and debit cards. They track the daily CHAPS payments made by credit and debit card payment processors to around 100 major UK retail corporates. These payments are the proceeds of recent credit and debit card transactions made by customers at their stores, both via physical and online platforms. More information on the indicator is provided in the accompanying Guide to the Bank of England's UK spending on credit and debit cards experimental data series.

Companies are allocated to one of four categories based on their primary business:  

• "staples" refers to companies that sell essential goods that households need to purchase, such as food and utilities
• "work-related" refers to companies providing public transport or selling petrol
• "delayable" refers to companies selling goods whose purchase could be delayed, such as clothing or furnishings
• "social" refers to spending on travel and eating out

Figure 6 shows changes in the value of CHAPS payments received by large UK corporates from their credit and debit card processors, "merchant acquirers". 

The spending categories recorded the following changes in the latest week:

• "work-related" increased by 4 points
• "delayable" was unchanged
• "social" decreased by 2 points
• "staple" decreased by 5 points

When compared with the same week in 2022, the spending categories recorded the following changes:

• "staple" increased by 8 points
• "work-related" increased by 3 points
• "social" increased by 3 points
• "delayable" increased by 3 points

The full data time series available for data on UK spending on debit and credit cards can be found in our accompanying UK spending on credit and debit cards dataset.

Revolut spending on debit cards

In the week to 18 June 2023, Revolut debit card spending decreased slightly by 1 percentage point compared with the previous week. Of the six sector categories, two experienced an increase, two remained unchanged, and two saw decreased spending. "Retail" spending experienced the largest increase, rising by 2 percentage points, while "travel and accommodation" spending fell by 4 percentage points compared with the previous week.

Total Revolut debit card spending was 19 percentage points higher than the equivalent period last year. All six categories saw increases in spending compared with the same week in 2022. The biggest increases continue to be in "retail" and "food and drink" spending, both rising by 32 percentage points. All categories except "entertainment" were also above the pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) baseline.

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

Transactions at Pret A Manger

In the week to 15 June 2023, the number of in-store transactions at Pret A Manger stores increased in all but three location categories when compared with the previous week. The largest increase was in regional stations, where transactions grew by 15 percentage points, followed by London stations and London airports where they grew by 7 and 6 percentage points, respectively. Scotland and regional towns were unchanged in the latest week while transactions in Manchester stores fell by 2 percentage points.

Transactions at Pret A Manger stores increased in seven and decreased in three store location categories when compared with the equivalent period of 2022. The largest increases were in London airports and Manchester stores, at 38 and 16 percentage points, respectively. The three categories that decreased were London stations, regional stations and London suburban stores, which fell by 7, 3 and 2 percentage points, respectively. Our accompanying Transactions at Pret A Manger dataset is available.

Automotive fuel spending

In the week to 11 June 2023, the estimated demand for fuel per transaction was unchanged from the level in the previous week and was 21 percentage points above the level seen in the equivalent week of 2022.

Average fuel prices continue to trend downwards, falling by 3 percentage points compared with the previous week, and are now 71 percentage points below the peak seen in July 2022. Our accompanying Automotive fuel spending dataset is available.

Daily UK flights

In the week to 18 June 2023, the average number of UK flights was 5,974, which was broadly unchanged when compared with the previous week. In addition, the average number of UK flights remained at 5% higher than the equivalent period last year and 10% lower than the equivalent week of 2019. Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

This section lists a selection of the data available in this publication. For the full list of available datasets, please see our accompanying dataset page

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or Experimental Statistics, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Information on the methodology used to produce the indicators in this bulletin is available in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or Experimental Statistics.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

UK coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions

Coronavirus restrictions should be considered when interpreting the data featured throughout this bulletin.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.