Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 23 January 2025

• Overall retail footfall in the week to 19 January 2025 increased by 7% compared with the previous week and increased by 3% compared with the equivalent week of 2024 (MRI OnLocation). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The total Revolut debit card spending remained broadly unchanged in the week to 19 January 2025 compared with the previous week but increased by 10% compared with the equivalent week of 2024; the seasonally adjusted Direct Debit failure rate decreased by 1% in December 2024 compared with the previous month, but was 4% higher than December 2023 (Revolut, Vocalink and Pay.UK). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The number of new online job adverts decreased by 11% in November 2024 when compared with the previous month and decreased by 7% when compared with November 2023 (Textkernel). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading businesses reported that their turnover had decreased in December 2024 compared with the previous calendar month, up 5 percentage points from the proportion reported for November 2024, and the highest proportion reported since December 2022; in contrast, 14% reported their turnover was higher, broadly stable from last month (final results from wave 124 of BICS). Section 4: Business and workforce.

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas increased by 3% to 3.828 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) in the week to 19 January 2025 compared with the previous week, while the System Price of electricity decreased by 44% to 10.665p/kWh over the same period (National Gas Transmission, Elexon). Section 5: Energy.

• The number of ship visits to major UK ports in the week to 19 January 2025 increased by 5% compared with the previous week but decreased by 4% compared with the equivalent week of 2024; the number of UK flights decreased by 4% compared with the previous week but increased by 4% compared with the equivalent week of 2024 (exactEarth, EUROCONTROL). Section 6: Transport.

Notes

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly.
3. Indicators with SA in the title have been seasonally adjusted.

In December 2024, the seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct Debit failure rate decreased by 1% when compared with November 2024. This decrease was a result of a 1% decrease in failure rates for "Electricity and Gas", a 1% increase in failure rates for "loans" and the other categories remaining broadly stable.

When compared with December 2023, the seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct Debit failure rate rose by 4%. Year-on-year, the failure rate for "Water" and "Electricity and Gas" increased by 8% and 7%, respectively. Meanwhile, the failure rate for "Mortgages" saw a decrease of 6%.

The "Total" average Direct Debit transaction amount remained broadly unchanged in December 2024, after seasonal adjustment, when compared with November 2024. The average Direct Debit transaction amount for "Electricity and gas" and "water" increased by 2% and 1%, respectively in the same period.

When compared with December 2023, the seasonally adjusted "Total" average Direct Debit transaction amount increased by 2%. Year-on-year, the transaction amount for "Water", "Mortgages" and "Loans" saw increases of 11%, 8% and 3% respectively, while "Electricity and Gas" saw a decrease of 10%.

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

Revolut spending on debit cards

Total Revolut debit card spending increased by 10% in the week to 19 January 2025 when compared with the equivalent week of 2024. Increases during this period were seen across all age groups, with the largest being for those aged 18 to 34 years, at 13%.

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

National retail footfall

In the week to 19 January 2025, high street and shopping centre footfall increased by 12% and 3%, respectively when compared with the previous week, while retail park footfall was broadly unchanged. When compared with the equivalent week of 2024, high street, shopping centre and retail park footfall all increased, by 4%, 2% and 1%, respectively.

When compared with the previous week, overall retail footfall increased in 11 of the 12 UK regions. The largest week-on-week increase was in Northern Ireland where overall retail footfall increased by 21%. Increases were also seen in 10 of the 12 UK regions when compared with the equivalent week of 2024, while the South East and East of England remained broadly unchanged.

Textkernel online job adverts

This week we are introducing Textkernel online job advert data, collected from approximately 90,000 job boards and recruitment pages via comprehensive web-scraping software.

Details on the methods used to compile these estimates are available in our measuring labour demand volumes across the UK using Textkernel data user guide.

Our previous real-time online job advert estimates were provided by Adzuna. These estimates showed all live online job advertisements, broken down by job category and by region, from February 2018 to October 2024. The estimates were based upon the information included in the job advert.

The new online job advert estimates we introduce in this release using Textkernel data have been produced to align to the Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) framework and as such are disseminated by occupation. Even though they can be used to show changes in labour demand, they are official statistics in development (as explained in our guide) and should be used only as an indicator of changing labour demand.

As adverts are not the same as vacancies, we advise caution when comparing these estimates with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Vacancy Survey, which are accredited official statistics. As such, sources are not directly comparable. Please refer to the user guides for more information.

In this publication, our leading metric is new adverts, which represents the total number of adverts that appear online for the first time in the calendar month.

The number of new adverts steadily increased throughout 2021, peaking in May 2022 at 1.3 million. Since its peak, the number of new adverts fell throughout 2023 and has remained between 600,000 to 850,000 new adverts per month throughout 2024.

The most recent data show that for November 2024, the number of new adverts decreased by 11% when compared with the previous month to 0.6 million and decreased by 7% when compared with November 2023.

Figure 6: London had the largest percentage drop in new adverts between November 2023 and November 2024, falling by 18% over this period

Volume of new adverts, UK countries and English regions, January 2018 to November 2024, non-seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. New adverts represent the total number of adverts that have gone online in the month, calculated by counting the number of adverts that appear for the first time across the calendar month. 
2. Counts are rounded to the nearest 5.
3. For information on how adverts were assigned to geographical locations, see measuring labour demand volumes across the UK using Textkernel data user guide.

All UK countries and English regions followed the national trend of declining numbers in new adverts throughout 2023 and continued to mirror the national trend throughout 2024.

The largest percentage decrease in new adverts in November 2024 was in London, falling by 18% when compared with the previous year. Northern Ireland and Yorkshire and The Humber were the only two countries or regions that had increases in new adverts in November 2024 when compared with November 2023, increasing by 27% and 2%, respectively. The only country or region where the number of new adverts remained broadly unchanged over this period was Scotland.

The number of new adverts was lower in 14 of the 26 occupation categories in November 2024 when compared with November 2023. The category that saw the largest percentage decrease in new adverts over this period was "Science, research, engineering and technology professionals", which fell by 25%. The category with one of the largest increases in new adverts over the same period was "Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives", which increased by 37%. Notably, new adverts did increase by 90% between November 2023 and November 2024 for "Community and civil enforcement occupations", but the total number of adverts was relatively small in comparison to other occupations.

Our accompanying online job advert estimates dataset is available, and further detailed data by local authority district and 4-digit SOC are also available.

Business impact and insights

The Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) collects data from selected industries and does not have full coverage of the UK economy. For more information on the industries covered in the BICS sample, see our Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) Quality and Methodology information

To enable comparisons, we have created a reweighted gross domestic product (GDP) estimate, termed as GDP*, which only includes the same industries as those covered within the BICS.

Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading businesses reported that their turnover had decreased in December 2024 compared with the previous calendar month, up 5 percentage points from the proportion reported for November 2024, and the highest proportion reported since December 2022; in contrast, 14% reported their turnover was higher, broadly stable from last month.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

The number of potential redundancies in the week to 12 January 2025 was 35% lower than the equivalent week of 2024, calculated as a four-week rolling average. The number of employers proposing redundancies was 2% higher when compared with the same period.

Comparisons with the equivalent period a year ago help account for any seasonal impacts. For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset is available.

Gas and electricity prices

In the week to 19 January 2025, The System Average Price (SAP) of gas increased by 3% when compared with the previous week, from a seven-day average price of 4.063 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) to 4.173 p/kWh. This was 70% higher than the equivalent week of 2024, which had a seven-day average price of 2.451p/kWh.

In the week to 19 January 2025, the System Price of electricity decreased by 44% when compared with the previous week, from a seven-day average price of 19.091p/kWh to 10.665p/kWh. However, this was 32% higher than the equivalent week of 2024, which had a seven-day average price of 8.083 p/kWh.

Looking at monthly timescales for December 2024, the System Average Price of gas increased by 1% when compared with the previous month, from a monthly average price of 3.779p/kWh to 3.828p/kWh. This was 31% higher than the equivalent month of 2023, which had a monthly average price of 2.915p/kWh.

For the month of December 2024, the System Price of electricity decreased by 8% when compared with the previous month, from a monthly average price of 9.375p/kWh to 8.599p/kWh. However, this was 24% higher than the equivalent month of 2023, which had a monthly average price of 6.910p/kWh. Overall, when looking at December 2024 prices, both energy sectors showed price increases when compared with December 2023.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset and System Price of electricity dataset are available.

Daily UK flights

In the week to 19 January 2025, the daily average number of UK flights decreased by 4%, when compared with the previous week, but was 4% higher than the equivalent week of 2024.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Weekly shipping indicators

In the week to 19 January 2025, the weekly count of total ships visiting selected UK ports increased by 5% when compared with the previous week. For this period, the weekly count of cargo ship and tanker visits increased by 7%.

When compared with the equivalent week of 2024, the total number of ship visits decreased by 4%, while visits from cargo ships and tankers were broadly unchanged.

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

Energy Performance Building Certificates

The total number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) for new dwellings across England and Wales increased by 96% in the week to 19 January 2025 when compared with the previous week, in line with seasonal trends. For existing dwellings, it increased by 27% over the same period.

When compared with the equivalent period of 2024, the total number of EPCs for new dwellings decreased by 11%, while the number of EPCs for existing dwellings increased by 8%.

The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset is available.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Find out more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release

• UK credit and debit card payments; last updated on 5 December 2024.

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; last updated on 23 January 2025

• Automotive fuel spending dataset; last updated on 16 January 2025.

• Company incorporations, voluntary dissolutions and compulsory dissolutions dataset was last updated on 23 January 2025.

• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; last updated on 23 January 2025.

• System Average price of gas dataset; last updated on 23 January 2025.

• System Price of electricity dataset; last updated on 23 January 2025.

• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; last updated on 23 January 2025.

• Daily UK flights dataset; last updated on 23 January 2025.

Monthly data release

• Textkernel new online job adverts; last updated on 23 January 2025

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; last updated on 23 January 2025.

• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; last updated on 17 October 2024.

• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; last updated on 9 January 2025.

Quarterly data release

• Sales and jobs in small businesses dataset; last updated on 7 November 2024.

Discontinued data series

• Transactions at Pret A Manger dataset; last updated on 31 October 2024 with a fortnightly data release; please note these estimates are no longer being updated because of cessation of our data sharing agreement.

• Online job advert estimates dataset; last updated on 24 October 2024 with a weekly data release; please note these estimates are no longer being updated and alternative data is available in our new online job advert dataset. Please note these two data series are not comparable.

Strengths and limitations

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society, using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.