Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators: 17 April 2025

• Total Revolut debit card spending increased by 12% in March 2025, compared with the previous month, and increased by 4% against March 2024 (Revolut). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• The seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct Debit failure rate for March 2025 was 2.27%, an increase from 2.25% in February 2025, and 2.14% from March 2024; increases were seen across all five published spending categories, with "Fitness Facilities" and "Electricity and Gas" increasing the most in the latest month (Pay.UK, Vocalink). Section 3: Consumer behaviour.

• In March 2025, 3% more firms reported an increase in turnover, rather than a decrease, when compared with the previous month; this is 2 percentage points higher than February 2025, and the change is within normal month-on-month variation (VAT). Section 4: Business and Workforce.

• 18% of businesses reported that their turnover increased in March 2025, an increase of 3 percentage points from February 2025; 23% of businesses reported turnover decreasing in March 2025, a decrease of 3 percentage points from February 2025 (initial results from wave 130 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey).

• The System Average Price (SAP) of gas decreased by 18% to 3.476 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) in March 2025, compared with the previous month, while the System price of electricity decreased by 14% to 8.786p/kWh over the same period (Elexon, National Gas Transmission). Section 5: Energy.

• The total number of ship visits to major UK ports increased by 9% in March 2025, compared with the previous month, but decreased by 2% when compared with the equivalent month of 2024 (exactEarth). Section 6: Transport.

• The total number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) for new dwellings across England and Wales increased by 37% in the month of March 2025, when compared with the previous month; for existing dwellings, it increased by 12% over the same period (Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government). Section 7: Housing.

Notes:

1. Card spending over time is pushed upwards by the impacts of both inflation on value of transactions and cash-to-card conversion.
2. Revolut adjustments to user count are at an aggregate level and as such age bands may not adjust evenly.
3. Indicators with SA in the title have been seasonally adjusted.

Monthly Direct Debit average transaction amount and failure rate

The monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount are anonymised, and aggregated datasets made available to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by Pay.UK and Vocalink. The data are unadjusted for inflation and reflect economic activity in nominal terms.

For further details on what is covered within this indicator, see our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

In March 2025, the seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct Debit failure rate increased from 2.25% to 2.27%, when compared with the previous month. There were increases in failure rates across all five published spending categories. The largest was seen in "Fitness Facilities", which rose from 5.7% to 6.26%, and "Electricity and Gas" which rose from 2.39% to 2.57%, when compared with the previous month. The latest data continues the general upward trend seen since mid-2020.

When compared with March 2024, the seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct Debit failure rate increased from 2.14% to 2.27% in March 2025. Similarly, there were increases across all five published spending categories. The largest failure rate increases were seen in "Electricity and Gas" from 2.05% to 2.57%, and "Fitness Facilities" which increased from 4.99% to 6.26%.

The seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct debit average transaction amount increased by 1% in March 2025, when compared with the previous month. This increase was partly driven by increases in "Water" and "Mortgages", which increased by 4% and 1%, respectively, while "Electricity and Gas" and "Loans" remained broadly unchanged.

When compared with March 2024, the seasonally adjusted "Total" Direct Debit average transaction amount increased by 5%. This was partly driven by increases in average transaction amounts for "Water" and "Mortgages", which increased by 15% and 7%, respectively. However, it was slightly counteracted by a decrease in transaction amounts of 8% for "Electricity and Gas" and 6% for "Loans".

Our accompanying Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset is available.

Revolut spending on debit cards

In the week to 13 April 2025, total Revolut debit card spending decreased by 2% compared with the previous week. The largest sector decreases were seen in "Services" and "Entertainment", which fell by 15% and 9%, respectively.

Total Revolut debit card spending increased by 12% in March 2025 when compared with the previous month. The largest sector increases were seen in "Utilities", "Shopping", and "Groceries", which rose by 17%, 15% and 15%, respectively.

When compared with March 2024, total Revolut debit card spending in March 2025 increased by 4%. The largest sector increases were seen in "Utilities", "Shopping", and "Health", which rose by 12%, 11% and 11%, respectively.

Our accompanying Revolut spending on debit cards dataset is available.

National retail footfall

In the week to 13 April 2025 retail footfall increased in two of the three locations categories compared to the previous week. Both high street and shopping centre footfall saw an increase of 3%, while retail parks remained broadly unchanged. When compared with the equivalent week of 2024 overall retail footfall increased by 5%. Increases were seen in all three location categories, with retail park, high street and shopping centre footfall increasing by 7%, 5% and 3%, respectively.

When compared with the previous week, overall retail footfall increased in all of the 12 UK regions, the largest increase was seen in Northern Ireland at 4%, followed by an increase of 3% in both the East and South West of England. When compared to the equivalent week of 2024 overall retail footfall increased in all regions, with the largest increase being in Northern Ireland and Scotland, which increased by 20% and 10%, respectively. These increases are likely a result of good weather across the UK coinciding with the school break for Easter.

Value Added Tax flash estimates

Turnover diffusion indices are an aggregate measure used to track whether most firms are reporting an increase or decrease in turnover in their Value Added Tax (VAT) returns. They are calculated as the percentage of firms with increasing turnover, minus the percentage of firms with decreasing turnover. 

These estimates have been weighted according to each industry's contribution to the economy. As services have the greatest contribution, they have a greater contribution to the total index. 

The indices are constructed to lie between 1 and negative 1. An index of 0.05 means that 5% more firms reported an increase in turnover compared with the previous month than those reporting a decrease in turnover. Conversely, an index of negative 0.05 means that 5% more firms reported a decrease in turnover compared with the previous month.

Figure 4: In March 2025, 3% more firms reported an increase in turnover, rather than a decrease, when compared to the previous month; this is 2 percentage points higher than February 2025

Weighted Value Added Tax turnover diffusion indices, UK, January 2020 to March 2025, seasonally adjusted

Notes:

1. These data are current price so may reflect elements of inflation.

2. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence limits.

3. The confidence limits are 1.96 standard deviations of the seasonally adjusted series, centred around zero. If a data point is outside of these limits, it is a statistically significant difference.

In March 2025, 3% more firms reported an increase that a decrease in turnover on the previous month, increasing by 2 percentage points from February 2025. This is after seasonal adjustment and is within normal month-on-month variation.

The services sector, the largest contributing sector to total gross domestic product (GDP), saw a net 4% of firms reporting increased turnover in March 2025, compared with the previous month. This has increased by 2 percentage points from February 2025 and is within normal month-on-month variation.

The production sector saw the largest month-on-month increase of 4 percentage points, with a net 3% of firms reporting increased turnover in March 2025, compared with the previous month. The latest figure falls within normal month-on-month variation.

A net 3% of firms in the agriculture sector reported decreased turnover on the previous month, decreasing 2 percentage points from February 2025. A net 1% of firms within the construction sector reported decreased turnover on the previous month, this remains broadly unchanged when compared to February 2025.

The data are seasonally adjusted. More information on the compilation and methodology of these estimates can be found in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology.

Advanced notification of potential redundancies

The number of potential redundancies in the four weeks to 6 April 2025 was 32% higher than the equivalent week of 2024. The number of employers proposing redundancies was 29% higher when compared over the same period.

These figures are subject to volatility at this time of year due to the Easter holidays.

Comparisons with the equivalent period a year ago help account for any seasonal impacts. For more information, our accompanying Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset is available.

System Average Price of gas and System Price of electricity

The System Average Price of gas decreased by 18% in March 2025 compared with the previous month, from a monthly average price of 4.265 pence per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) to 3.476p/kWh. This was 49% lower than March 2024, which had a monthly average price of 2.333p/kWh.

The System price of electricity decreased by 14% in March 2025 compared with the previous month, from a monthly average price of 10.173p/kWh to 8.786p/kWh. This was 37% lower than in March 2024, which had a monthly average price of 6.433p/kWh.

Our accompanying System Average Price of gas dataset and System Price of electricity dataset are available.

Daily UK flights

In the month of March 2025, the seasonally adjusted total number of flights increased by 1% in March 2025 compared with the previous month and increased by 2% when compared with the equivalent month of 2024.

Our accompanying Daily UK flights dataset is available.

Weekly shipping indicators

In the month of March 2025, the total monthly count of ships visiting selected UK ports increased by 9% compared with the previous month. Over the same period, the monthly count of cargo ship and tanker visits increased by 11%.

When compared with the equivalent month of 2024, the total number of ship visits decreased by 2% and the monthly count of cargo ship and tanker visits decreased by 6%.

Our accompanying Weekly shipping indicators dataset is available.

Energy Performance Building Certificates

The total number of Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPCs) for new dwellings across England and Wales increased by 37% in the month to March 2025, when compared with the previous month. For existing dwellings, it increased by 12% over the same period.

When compared with the equivalent month of 2024, the total number of EPCs for new dwellings increased by 8% and the number of EPCs for existing dwellings increased by 20%.

Our accompanying Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset is available The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government's weekly EPCs for domestic properties dataset is available.

Real-time indicator

A real-time indicator provides insights into economic activity using close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys or experimental estimates, which represent useful economic and social concepts.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment is the identification and removal of consistent and systematic variation in time series associated with the time of year. For more information on seasonal variation, and how we implement seasonal adjustment, see Section 2 of our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as official statistics in development. Until September 2023, these were called "experimental statistics". Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics. Find out more in our Economic activity and social change in the UK, real-time indicators methodology article.

Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide if the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or if further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes.

We value your feedback on these statistics. If you would like to get in touch, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Dataset release dates and intended release frequency

Latest release dates and intended release frequency of our associated datasets are available in this section. Please note that there may be some change to the intended release frequency for a variety of reasons, such as data availability. If you would like further information about any of these datasets, or previous release dates, please email realtime.indicators@ons.gov.uk.

Weekly data release

• Revolut spending on debit cards dataset; updated 17 April 2025.

• Automotive fuel spending dataset; updated 10 April 2025.

• Company incorporations, voluntary dissolutions and compulsory dissolutions dataset; updated 30 January 2025.

• Advanced notification of potential redundancies dataset; updated 17 April 2025.

• System Average price of gas dataset; updated 17 April 2025.

• System Price of electricity dataset; updated 17 April 2025.

• Energy Performance Building Certificates (EPC) dataset; updated 17 April 2025.

• Weekly shipping indicators dataset; updated 17 April 2025.

• Daily UK flights dataset; updated 17 April 2025.

• UK credit and debit card payments; updated 5 December 2024.

Monthly data release

• Monthly Direct Debit failure rate and average transaction amount dataset; updated 17 April 2025.

• Textkernel new online job adverts dataset; updated 20 March 2025.

• Value Added Tax (VAT) flash estimates dataset; updated 17 April 2025.

• Renter affordability for new tenancies dataset; updated 10 April 2025.

Quarterly data release

• Sales and jobs in small businesses dataset; updated 7 November 2024.

Strengths and limitations

These statistics have been produced to provide timely indicators of the effect of developing world events on the UK economy and society. We use close-to-real-time big data, administrative data sources, rapid response surveys, or official statistics in development.

The data presented in this bulletin are reviewed and refreshed on a regular basis. Indicators are swapped in and out of the publication based on their suitability and availability.

Seasonality

Seasonal fluctuations are likely to be present in many of these indicators, so caution must be applied when interpreting changes in series that are not seasonally adjusted.