1. Main points
Total production output decreased by 0.6% for the three months to November 2019, compared with the three months to August 2019; this was led by manufacturing output, which fell by 0.8%.
The three-monthly fall in manufacturing is because of widespread weakness, with 10 of the 13 subsectors providing downward contributions; this was led by pharmaceutical products (fall of 6.2%) and transport equipment (fall of 1.6%).
Production output fell by 1.2% between October 2019 and November 2019, with manufacturing providing the largest downward contribution, falling by 1.7%.
The monthly decrease of 1.7% in manufacturing output was because of downward contributions from 10 of the 13 subsectors; led by notable falls from transport equipment (3.4%), chemicals and chemical products (4.7%) and food, beverages and tobacco (1.8%).
For the three months to November 2019, production output decreased by 1.1%, compared with the same three months to November 2018; this was led by a fall in manufacturing of 1.2%.
2. Production
Figure 1: Widespread weakness within manufacturing underpins the strong negative contribution from this sector
Contributions to the Index of Production three months on three months, seasonally adjusted, UK, November 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics – Index of Production
Notes:
- Weights for main Index of Production sectors are: Sector B – Mining and quarrying (4.7); Sector C – Manufacturing (74.9); Sector D – Electricity and gas (10.9); and Sector E – Water and waste (9.5).
Download this chart Figure 1: Widespread weakness within manufacturing underpins the strong negative contribution from this sector
Image .csv .xlsTotal production output for the three months to November 2019 fell by 0.6%, compared with the three months to August 2019.
Manufacturing output provided by far the largest downward contribution, falling by 0.8%, led by widespread weakness throughout the sector, with negative contributions from 10 of the 13 subsectors. Negligible contributions from water and waste, and mining and quarrying, which fell by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, were offset by the only positive contribution from electricity and gas, which rose by 0.6%.
| Three months on previous three months | Three months on same three months a year ago | Month on previous month | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector | Summary description | Growth (%) | Contribution to production (% points) | Growth (%) | Contribution to production (% points) | Growth (%) | Contribution to production (% points) |
| IoP | Index of Production | -0.6 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| Sector B | Total mining and quarrying | -0.1 | 0.00 | -3.1 | -0.16 | 1.3 | 0.06 |
| 5 | Coal and lignite | -0.5 | 0.00 | -9.0 | 0.00 | -6.4 | 0.00 |
| 6 | Crude petroleum and natural gas | -0.4 | -0.01 | -4.0 | -0.15 | 1.7 | 0.06 |
| 789 | Other mining and quarrying | 0.8 | 0.01 | -0.3 | 0.00 | 0.4 | 0.01 |
| Sector C | Total manufacturing | -0.8 | -0.63 | -1.2 | -0.87 | -1.7 | -1.25 |
| CA | Food, beverages and tobacco | 1.9 | 0.22 | 1.5 | 0.18 | -1.8 | -0.21 |
| CB | Textiles and leather products | -0.9 | -0.02 | 1.9 | 0.04 | -1.7 | -0.04 |
| CC | Wood, paper and printing | -1.5 | -0.08 | -2.1 | -0.11 | -1.7 | -0.09 |
| CD | Coke and petroleum | 6.7 | 0.05 | -1.8 | -0.01 | -1.0 | -0.01 |
| CE | Chemical products | -2.5 | -0.12 | -8.5 | -0.42 | -4.7 | -0.22 |
| CF | Pharmaceutical products | -6.2 | -0.38 | 4.9 | 0.27 | 0.8 | 0.05 |
| CG | Rubber and plastic products | -0.9 | -0.05 | -5.4 | -0.29 | -0.7 | -0.04 |
| CH | Metal products | -1.2 | -0.10 | -0.1 | -0.01 | -0.3 | -0.02 |
| CI | Computer, electronic and optical | 2.2 | 0.13 | 2.3 | 0.14 | -2.6 | -0.16 |
| CJ | Electrical equipment | -2.4 | -0.05 | -0.4 | -0.01 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| CK | Machinery and equipment | -1.0 | -0.06 | -4.5 | -0.28 | -2.6 | -0.15 |
| CL | Transport equipment | -1.6 | -0.16 | -2.2 | -0.23 | -3.4 | -0.36 |
| CM | Other manufacturing and repair | -0.3 | -0.02 | -2.1 | -0.14 | 0.1 | 0.01 |
| Sector D | Total electricity and gas | 0.6 | 0.06 | -1.3 | -0.13 | 0.1 | 0.01 |
| 35.1 | Electric power generation, transmission and distribution | 1.2 | 0.09 | 0.6 | 0.05 | 0.1 | 0.01 |
| 35.2-3 | Manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and aircon supply | -1.3 | -0.03 | -7.0 | -0.17 | 0.3 | 0.01 |
| Sector E | Total water and waste | -0.3 | -0.03 | 0.6 | 0.06 | -0.3 | -0.02 |
| 36 | Water collection, treatment and supply | 1.3 | 0.04 | 1.2 | 0.04 | 0.9 | 0.03 |
| 37 | Sewerage | -1.6 | -0.05 | -2.6 | -0.09 | 0.1 | 0.00 |
| 38 | Waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery | -0.3 | -0.01 | 3.5 | 0.11 | -1.7 | -0.05 |
| 39 | Remediation activities and other waste management services | -0.2 | 0.00 | 2.4 | 0.00 | -1.2 | 0.00 |
Download this table Table 1: Growths and contributions to production, seasonally adjusted estimates, UK, November 2019
.xls .csv
Figure 2: The current three-monthly rolling index level is the lowest since July 2017
Index of Production rolling three months on previous three months, seasonally adjusted, UK, January 2008 to November 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics – Index of Production
Notes:
- Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2009 – UK economic downturn.
Download this chart Figure 2: The current three-monthly rolling index level is the lowest since July 2017
Image .csv .xlsGrowth for the Index of Production (IoP) was more pronounced from the beginning of 2010, as the economy recovered from the 2008 economic downturn, before a downturn during 2012. Production output in the UK was 5.5% lower for the three months to November 2019 than the pre-downturn peak for the three months to March 2008. Additionally, the current three-monthly rolling index level is the lowest since July 2017.
Back to table of contents3. Manufacturing
Figure 3: The current three-monthly rolling index level is the lowest since July 2017
Index of Manufacturing rolling three months on previous three months, seasonally adjusted, UK, January 2008 to November 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics – Index of Production
Notes:
- Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2009 – UK economic downturn.
Download this chart Figure 3: The current three-monthly rolling index level is the lowest since July 2017
Image .csv .xlsGrowth for the Index of Manufacturing was more pronounced from the beginning of 2010, as the economy recovered from the 2008 economic downturn, before a downturn during 2012. Manufacturing output in the UK remained 2.9% lower for the three months to November 2019 than the pre-downturn peak for the three months to March 2008. Additionally, the current three-monthly rolling index level is the lowest since July 2017.
For further detail on the longer-term trend within manufacturing, please see the article, Manufacturing sector performance, UK: 2008 to 2018, published on 2 April 2019. The article provides an overview of the changes in the manufacturing sector between 2008 and 2018, focusing on the industries that have grown or shrunk the most.
Total manufacturing output for the three months to November 2019 fell by 0.8%, compared with the three months to August 2019. Of the 13 subsectors, 10 displayed negative contributions, led by:
basic pharmaceutical products, which fell by 6.2%, mainly because of monthly weakness during September 2019
transport equipment, which fell by 1.6%, caused by weakness from motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, which fell by 2.4% because of the additional impact of shutdowns during November 2019; this industry is still showing a longer-term decline, as highlighted by the three months on same three months a year ago indicator, which fell by 3.1%
chemicals and chemical products, which fell by 2.5%, partially because of the impact of maintenance and shutdowns but also because of widespread weakness in November and a continuation of sustained weakness since the three months to March 2019
Partially offsetting the cumulative impact from the negative contributions was widespread growth from food, beverages and tobacco, which rose by 1.9%. Within this sector, there was notable strength from meat and meat products (2.1%), other food products (2.3%), alcoholic beverages (2.8%) and soft drinks (4.6%).
There was also a notable increase from computer, electronic and optical products, which rose by 2.2%, mainly because of monthly export-driven strength during October 2019.
The notable decrease of 1.7% in total manufacturing output in November 2019, compared with October 2019, was mainly because of widespread weakness, with 10 of the 13 subsectors displaying downward contributions, most notably from:
the motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry (6.1%), which was impacted by factory shutdowns during November 2019
widespread weakness from chemicals and chemical products (4.7%), following on from the impact of maintenance and shutdowns
food, beverages and tobacco (1.8%) because of widespread weakness, led by an export-driven fall from alcoholic beverages, which fell by 4.0%
This is the largest monthly fall in total manufacturing since April 2019, when output fell by 4.2% and the second-largest fall since June 2012, when output fell by 2.6%. Additionally, the decline in output for November 2019 results in the index falling to the weakest level since November 2016.
Widespread weakness is underpinned by falls in both nominal total turnover and export turnover and more detail can be found in our Monthly Business Survey turnover in production industries published alongside this release.
For the three months to November 2019, compared with the same three months to November 2018, total output declined by 1.2%, the sixth consecutive fall for this indicator, led by:
chemicals and chemical products, which fell by 8.5%, the strongest fall since April 2016
rubber and plastic products, which fell by 5.4%
machinery and equipment, which fell by 4.5%
transport equipment, which fell by 2.2%, a continuation of ongoing weakness since June 2018
Partially offsetting overall weakness was long-term strength from the pharmaceutical products subsector (4.9%).
Back to table of contents4. Mining and quarrying
Figure 4: This is the sixth consecutive period of weakness since May 2019 for mining and quarrying output
Mining and quarrying, three months on three months a year ago, seasonally adjusted, UK, January 2016 to November 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics – Index of Production
Download this chart Figure 4: This is the sixth consecutive period of weakness since May 2019 for mining and quarrying output
Image .csv .xlsThere is a continuation of weakness within this sector, with the three months to November 2019 on three months a year ago output falling by 3.1%, continuing the trend of a weaker 2019 in comparison with 2018. The three-monthly indicator to November 2019 fell by 0.1%.
Monthly output increased by 1.3%, led by a rise of 1.7% from oil and gas extraction; a partial bounceback following notable weakness in October 2019, when it fell by 4.6%.
Back to table of contents5. Electricity and gas
The three-monthly growth to November 2019 of 0.6% was driven by electricity supply, which increased by 1.2%. In contrast gas supply fell by 1.3%.
Monthly output rose by 0.1% for November 2019 because of increased demand for both electricity and gas supply, resulting in negligible rises of 0.1% and 0.3% respectively. The Met Office reported that the provisional UK mean temperature was 5.3 degrees Celsius, which is 0.9 degrees Celsius below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average. Additionally, the mean temperature fell by 3.7 degrees Celsius between October and November 2019.
In contrast, the three months to November 2019 on three months a year ago indicator fell by 1.3%, mainly because of gas supply, which fell by 7.0%. This decline was also temperature-driven, with colder than average temperatures across the three months to November 2018 increasing demand, in comparison with the same three months to November 2019.
Back to table of contents6. Water and waste
Work carried out on waste treatment projects is the underlying factor behind the continuation of longer-term strength across the three months to November 2019 on three months a year ago indicator for the waste collection industry, which rose by 3.5%. In contrast, and partially offsetting this growth, was a 2.6% fall for sewerage.
Despite strength in the three months on a year ago indicator within waste supply, monthly output declined by 1.7% for this industry; this was led by weakness from large businesses, driving the overall sector level fall of 0.3%.
Back to table of contents7. Index of Production data
Index of Production time series
Dataset DIOP | Released 13 January 2020
Movements in the volume of production for the UK production industries: manufacturing, mining and quarrying, energy supply, and water and waste management. Figures are seasonally adjusted.
Output of the production industries
Dataset | Released 13 January 2020
Index values and growth rates for production, manufacturing and the main industrial groupings in the UK.
Index of Production and industry sectors to four decimal places
Dataset | Released 13 January 2020
Monthly index values for production and the main Index of Production (IoP) sectors in the UK to four decimal places.
Monthly Business Survey turnover in production industries
Dataset | Released 13 January 2020
Monthly Business Survey (MBS) production industries’ total turnover, domestic sales and exports in the UK. Figures are in current price and non-seasonally adjusted.
Export proportions for manufacturing industries
Dataset | Released 13 January 2020
Monthly, quarterly and annual export data for the manufacturing industries, collected by the MBS at industry level in the UK.
All data related to the IoP are available on the Related data page.
8. Glossary
Index number
The index number is a measure of the average level of prices, quantities or other measurable characteristics relative to their level for a defined time period or location.
Industrial classification or breakdown
The industrial classification or breakdown is the internationally standardised method for classifying the wide range of industrial sectors in an economy. We use the Standard Industrial Classification 2007 (SIC 2007) for industrial breakdowns.
Manufacturing
The manufacturing sector includes the output of manufacturing industries and is broken down into 13 subsectors.
Monthly Business Survey
The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) collects information on the monthly turnover of UK businesses within the production and service sectors from various industrial sectors and regions in the UK.
Production
The production sector includes the output in the manufacturing (the largest component of production), mining and quarrying, energy supply, and water supply and waste management industries.
Turnover
The turnover of a company is the value of the goods or services sold during a particular time period. It includes total takings or invoiced sales and receipts. Interest and similar income, “other operating income”, and extra ordinary income is excluded. Value Added Tax (VAT) invoiced to the customer is excluded.
Back to table of contents9. Measuring the data
The Index of Production (IoP) uses data from a variety of sources and is calculated by taking turnover and removing the impact of price changes or by using direct volume estimates.
The majority of data are collected as “turnover values” through the Monthly Business Survey (MBS). In addition, direct volume series are collected by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the International Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) for steel industries.
From January 2018, Value Added Tax (VAT) data have also been included across 64 production industries for small- and medium-sized businesses. For more information, see VAT turnover data in National Accounts: background and methodology.
A comprehensive list of the IoP source data can be found in the Gross domestic product (GDP(O)) source catalogue (XLS, 715KB).
More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the UK Index of Production QMI.
Back to table of contents10. Strengths and limitations
Seasonal adjustment
The data published in the Index of Production (IoP) release are all seasonally adjusted (although non-seasonally adjusted estimates are also available). This aids interpretation by removing annually recurring fluctuations, for example, those caused by holidays or other seasonal patterns.
Data volatility
Care should be taken when using the month-on-month growth rates as data can be volatile. Longer-term growth rates and examination of the time series allow for better interpretation of the statistics.
Comparability with UK trade statistics
The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) turnover in production industries dataset produces the proportion of turnover from exports by industry and level of turnover and exports (British Pound, millions). However, this is not always comparable with UK trade statistics. Further information on UK trade and how data on it are compiled can be found in the UK trade release.
Back to table of contents