Estimates of quarterly greenhouse gas emissions (residence basis), UK: April to June 2024

• UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a residence basis were estimated to be 114 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024, 2.5% higher than in Quarter 2 2023.

• The UK emitted 0.164 tonnes of CO2e per million pounds of economic activity (gross value added) in Quarter 2 2024, down 59.7% since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 1999.

• These quarterly emissions estimates complement and draw on our annual residence-based emissions statistics.

• All emissions estimates in this release are produced using modelling techniques; estimates for all quarters of 2023 and Quarters 1 and 2 2024 are subject to greater uncertainty as final emissions estimates for 2023 are not yet available, so data are modelled over six quarters.

• As with quarterly provisional estimates of GHG emissions on a territorial basis, total emissions fell in every quarter of 2023 compared with the same quarters in 2022.

Using modelling techniques, we have produced estimates of total quarterly UK greenhouse gas (GHG) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, on a residence basis, up to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024. All GHG estimates referred to in this release are non-seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified.

Our Quarter 2 2024 estimate of total emissions on this measure is 114 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e). This is an increase of 2.8 Mt CO2e, or 2.5%, compared with the same quarter in 2023 (Figure 1). Coming after five successive quarters of estimated emissions being lower than in the same quarter in the previous year, this is the second consecutive year-on-year increase in the quarterly estimate since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022.

Table 1 shows the change in total quarterly non-seasonally adjusted emissions estimates compared with the same quarter in the previous year.

In per head terms, residence-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were 1.80 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per person in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024, unchanged from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024.

Since 1999, the start of the data time series for this measure, residence-based GHG emissions have decreased by 44.7%, or 1.45 tonnes of CO2e per person (Figure 2).

Importantly, these official statistics in development estimates are subject to uncertainty, so should be interpreted with caution. The underlying input data, estimates informing the model and the modelling process itself each introduce uncertainty affecting the accuracy of these estimates. The level of uncertainty is particularly high for all quarters of 2023, Quarter 1 and Quarter 2 2024 in this release, as the final annual estimate of GHG emissions on a residence basis to which we constrain these estimates will not be published until summer 2025.

More information can be found in Section 6 of the accompanying Quality and Methodology Information.

Our residence-based emissions estimates are compiled in accordance with the UN System of Environmental Economic Accounting, which aligns with the UK System of National Accounts. This enables comparisons with the main economic indicators such as gross value added (GVA), and also the calculation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity, or emissions per unit of economic output.

The UK emitted 0.164 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per million pounds of GVA in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024. This was similar to levels seen since Quarter 2 2021. Emissions intensity has fallen 59.7% from 0.407 tonnes of CO2e per million pounds of GVA in 1999 (Figure 3).

Emissions intensity can be used to examine the relationship between economic growth and GHG emissions on a residence basis. The reduction in overall emissions intensity on this measure is an indication that the UK is moving towards a lower carbon economy.

This could be driven by several factors, including changes in the structure of the economy and behavioural changes that may depict the interaction between the economy and the environment. For example, it could be related to some industries becoming more efficient in their production processes through the adoption of lower emission technologies, changes in the composition of the economy, where there is a growing shift from higher- to lower-emitting economic activities, for example, manufacturing to services activities, or a combination of these factors.

All estimates of gross value added are subject to revisions. For more information, please see GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024.

Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are those covered by the Paris Agreement, which has superseded the Kyoto Protocol. These include:

• carbon dioxide (CO2)
• methane (CH4)
• nitrous oxide (N2O)
• hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
• perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
• sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
• nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)

These gases contribute directly to global warming and climate change, because of their positive radiative forcing effect. The potential of each GHG to cause global warming is assessed in relation to a given weight of CO2, so all greenhouse gas emissions are measured as carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e).

Residence basis

Estimates compiled on a residence basis include data relating to UK residents and UK-registered businesses regardless of whether they are in the UK or overseas. Emissions released in the UK by tourists and foreign transport operations are excluded. For more detailed comparisons of UK emissions measures, please see our Measuring UK greenhouse gas emissions methodology article.

Temporal disaggregation

Temporal disaggregation is the process of deriving high-frequency data (for example, quarterly) from low-frequency data (for example, annual).

All estimates presented in this release and our accompanying dataset have been produced using temporal disaggregation and modelling techniques and are therefore subject to uncertainty.

The main source of information and predictor indicators for producing these official statistics in development estimates are:

• Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK annual estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a residence basis
• Department for Energy Security and Net Zero’s Energy trends, which provides information on UK energy production, consumption and trade for energy overall and specific fuels.

All estimates of the annual GHG data series and the latest quarter of Energy trends are provisional and subject to revisions. While the ONS has published provisional estimates of emissions for 2023, a complete breakdown of emission data by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) is required for the quarterly model so 2023 annual estimates will not be incorporated until the June 2025 release. The whole data time series is updated for each iteration of this release, which means that the latest version supersedes all previous versions.

This release presents non-seasonally adjusted estimates. Both non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data are available in our accompanying dataset.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as “official statistics in development”. Until September 2023, these were called “experimental statistics”. Read more about the change in the Guide to official statistics in development.

We are developing how we collect and produce the data to improve the quality of these statistics, such as refining and optimising the code used. Once the developments are complete, we will review the statistics with the Statistics Head of Profession. We will decide whether the statistics are of sufficient quality and value to be published as official statistics, or whether further development is needed. Production may be stopped if they are not of sufficient quality or value. Users will be informed of the outcome and any changes. We value your feedback on these statistics. Contact us at environment.accounts@ons.gov.uk.

Strengths and limitations

These estimates are subject to uncertainty, both in the underlying estimates used with the model and through uncertainty introduced by the modelling itself. For instance, for periods where a base or reference year is unavailable (such as this quarter), we use “nowcasting” measures to extend the series for five quarters. This implies that the estimates for those periods are less accurate compared with periods where a base or reference year is available.

For information on the strengths and limitations of the estimates presented in this bulletin, see Section 6 of our Experimental estimates of UK quarterly greenhouse gas emissions (residence basis), Quality and Methodology Information.