1. Main points
We estimated UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a residence basis to be 99 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024; this was 0.2% higher than in Quarter 3 2023.
Residence-based GHG emissions were 1.77 tonnes of CO2e per person in Quarter 3 2024; this is down 45.5%, or 1.48 tonnes of CO2e per person, since 1999.
The UK emitted 0.156 tonnes of CO2e per million British pounds of economic activity (gross value added) in Quarter 3 2024; this is down 62.9% since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 1999.
These quarterly emissions estimates complement and draw on our annual residence-based emissions statistics.
All estimates in this bulletin are produced using modelling techniques; estimates for all quarters of 2023 and Quarters 1, Quarter 2 (Apr to June), and Quarter 3 2024 are subject to greater uncertainty because final emissions estimates for 2023 are not yet available, so we have modelled data over seven quarters.
From this bulletin, these estimates are designated as "official statistics", rather than "official statistics in development".
We refer to residence-based (also known as production) emissions in this release. Territorial emissions, published by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, is the measure generally used for greenhouse gas emissions targets, including net zero by 2050. Footprint (or consumption) emissions, published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, account for emissions from trade. Please see Section 7: Data sources and quality for more information.
2. Quarterly greenhouse gas emission estimates
We have produced estimates of total quarterly UK greenhouse gas (GHG) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, on a residence basis up to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 using modelling techniques. All GHG and CO2 estimates referred to in this bulletin are non-seasonally adjusted, unless otherwise specified.
Our Quarter 3 2024 estimate of total emissions on a residence basis is 99 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e). This is an increase of 0.2 Mt CO2e, or 0.2%, compared with the same quarter in 2023. Between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2022 and Quarter 4 2023, there were five consecutive year-on-year decreases. Since then, there have been three consecutive year-on-year increases between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 and Quarter 3 2024.
Figure 1: Residence-based UK greenhouse gas emissions have declined since 1999
Estimates of quarterly greenhouse gas emissions on a residence basis, UK, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 1999 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024
Source: Environmental accounts from the Office for National Statistics, and Energy trends from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
Notes:
Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec).
These estimates have been modelled using the Chow-Lin regression-based temporal disaggregation method.
For seasonal adjusted estimates, the predictor indicators used within the modelling were seasonally adjusted using X-13ARIMA-SEATS.
Download this chart Figure 1: Residence-based UK greenhouse gas emissions have declined since 1999
Image .csv .xlsTable 1 shows the change in total quarterly non-seasonally adjusted emissions estimates, compared with the same quarter in the previous year.
Time Period | Change in quarterly totals from same quarter the previous year (%) |
---|---|
Quarter 1 2020 | -2.9% |
Quarter 2 2020 | -25.4% |
Quarter 3 2020 | -12.5% |
Quarter 4 2020 | -7.2% |
Quarter 1 2021 | -5.7% |
Quarter 2 2021 | 22.0% |
Quarter 3 2021 | 1.6% |
Quarter 4 2021 | -1.0% |
Quarter 1 2022 | 0.2% |
Quarter 2 2022 | 1.1% |
Quarter 3 2022 | 6.2% |
Quarter 4 2022 | -1.4% |
Quarter 1 2023 | -3.3% |
Quarter 2 2023 | -5.4% |
Quarter 3 2023 | -4.2% |
Quarter 4 2023 | -6.1% |
Quarter 1 2024 | 0.8% |
Quarter 2 2024 | 2.4% |
Quarter 3 2024 | 0.2% |
Download this table Table 1: July to September 2024 had the third year-on-year increase since the same period in 2022
.xls .csv3. Per head estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and gross value added
Residence-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were 1.77 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per person in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. Residence-based GHG emissions have decreased by 45.5%, or 1.48 tonnes of CO2e per person, since 1999 when the time series for this measure began.
Figure 2: UK residence-based greenhouse gas emissions per head have steadily declined since 1999
Estimates of quarterly greenhouse gas emissions and gross value added (GVA) per head, Index Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 1999 = 100, UK, Quarter 1 1999 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024
Source: Environmental accounts from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec).
Per head estimates are calculated by dividing the level of greenhouse gas emissions and GVA by quarterly population estimates. GVA is the difference between the value of goods and services produced (output) and the cost of raw materials and other inputs, which are used up in production (intermediate consumption) for any given industry. GVA are chained volume measures (CVM), in constant prices with 2022 as the base and reference year.
Download this chart Figure 2: UK residence-based greenhouse gas emissions per head have steadily declined since 1999
Image .csv .xlsThese estimates are subject to uncertainty, so should be interpreted with caution. The underlying input data, the estimates informing the model, and the modelling process itself each introduce uncertainty that affects the accuracy of these estimates. The level of uncertainty is particularly high for all quarters of 2023 and Quarters 1 (Jan to Mar), Quarter 2 (Apr to June), and Quarter 3 2024 in this bulletin. This is because the final annual estimate of GHG emissions on a residence basis to which we constrain these estimates will not be published until summer 2025.
More information can be found in Section 6: Methods used to produce the data in our Estimates of UK quarterly GHG emissions (residence basis) quality and methodology information (QMI).
Back to table of contents4. Intensity of quarterly greenhouse gas emissions
Our residence-based emissions estimates are compiled in accordance with the United Nations System of Environmental Economic Accounting, which aligns with the UK System of National Accounts. This enables comparisons with important economic indicators, such as gross domestic product (GDP), and the calculation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity, in terms of emissions per unit of economic output.
The UK emitted 0.156 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per million British pounds of gross value added (GVA) in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. Emissions intensity has fallen 62.9% from 0.42 tonnes of CO2e per million British pounds of GVA in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 1999 (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: UK residence-based emissions intensity fell around 60% between 1999 and 2024
Estimates of quarterly greenhouse gas emissions and gross value added (GVA), seasonally adjusted, UK (residency basis), Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 1999 to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024
Source: Environmental accounts from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec).
Emissions intensity is calculated by dividing the level of greenhouse gas emissions by GVA. GVA is the difference between the value of goods and services produced (output) and the cost of raw materials and other inputs, which are used up in production (intermediate consumption), for any given industry. GVA are chained volume measures, in constant prices with 2022 as the base and reference year.
All emissions intensity figures are calculated using seasonally adjusted estimates of greenhouse gas emissions, excluding those from households that refer to consumer expenditure travel and non-travel.
Download this chart Figure 3: UK residence-based emissions intensity fell around 60% between 1999 and 2024
Image .csv .xlsEmissions intensity can be used to examine the relationship between economic growth and GHG emissions on a residence basis. The general reduction in overall emissions intensity on this measure could be considered an indication that the UK is moving towards a lower carbon (emissions) economy.
This could be influenced by several factors, including changes in the structure of the economy and behavioural changes that may depict the interaction between the economy and the environment. For example, it could be related to:
some industries becoming more efficient in their production processes through the adoption of lower emission technologies
changes in the composition of the economy, where there is a growing shift from higher- to lower-emitting economic activities, like from manufacturing to services activities
a combination of these factors
All estimates of GVA are subject to revisions. For more information, please see Section 6: Revisions to GDP in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.
Back to table of contents5. Data
Estimates of quarterly greenhouse gas emissions
Dataset | Released 30 January 2025
Estimates of UK quarterly greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on a residence basis.
Energy trends
Dataset | Last updated 19 December 2024
Quarterly publication from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, which presents data on the supply and demand of all the major fuels in the UK.
6. Glossary
Greenhouse gases
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are those covered by the Paris Agreement, which has superseded the Kyoto Protocol. These include:
carbon dioxide (CO2)
methane (CH4)
nitrous oxide (N2O)
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)
These gases contribute directly to global warming and climate change, because of their positive radiative forcing effect. The potential of each GHG to cause global warming is assessed in relation to a given weight of CO2, so all greenhouse gas emissions are measured as carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e).
Residence basis
Estimates compiled on a residence basis include data relating to UK residents and UK-registered businesses, regardless of whether they are in the UK or overseas. Emissions released in the UK by tourists and foreign transport operations are excluded. For more detailed comparisons of UK emissions measures, please see our Measuring UK greenhouse gas emissions article.
Temporal disaggregation
Temporal disaggregation is the process of deriving high-frequency data (for example, quarterly) from low-frequency data (for example, annual).
Back to table of contents7. Data sources and quality
All estimates presented in this bulletin and our accompanying dataset have been produced using temporal disaggregation and modelling techniques. They are therefore subject to uncertainty.
The main sources of information and predictor indicators for producing these estimates are:
UK annual estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a residence basis from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Energy Trends from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), which provides information on UK energy production, consumption, and trade for energy overall and for specific fuels
We refer to residence-based (also known as production) emissions in this bulletin. Territorial emissions published by DESNZ is the measure generally used for GHG emissions targets, including net zero by 2050. Footprint (or consumption) emissions, published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, account for emissions from trade. More information on these three official measures of UK GHG emissions can be found in our Measuring UK greenhouse gas emissions explainer.
All estimates of the annual GHG series and the latest quarter of the energy trends are provisional and subject to revisions. We have published provisional estimates of emissions for 2023. However, a complete breakdown of emission data by more granular standard industrial classification (SIC) codes are required for the quarterly model. Annual estimates for 2023 will not be incorporated until our June 2025 release. The whole time series is updated for each iteration of this release, which means that the latest version supersedes all previous versions.
This bulletin presents non-seasonally adjusted estimates. Both non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data are available in our accompanying dataset.
Official statistics status
As official statistics, these are produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We are committed to the continued innovation and improvement of these data.
We have published quarterly GHG emissions estimates regularly since July 2023. We have automated the production process using Reproducible Analytical Pipelines (RAPs), as described in GOV.UK's blog post.
These statistics are no longer undergoing development or testing and are now designated as "official statistics". For more information on the methods used, the data they provide, and their strengths and limitations, see our Estimates of UK quarterly GHG emissions (residence basis) quality and methodology information (QMI).
You can read more about the different types of official statistics on the UK Statistics Authority website.
For further information, or if you have any views on these statistics or suggestions for improvement, you can contact us at environment.accounts@ons.gov.uk.
Strengths and limitations
These estimates are subject to uncertainty, both in the underlying estimates used with the model and through uncertainty introduced by the modelling itself. For instance, for periods where a base or reference year is unavailable (such as this quarter), we use "nowcasting" measures to extend the series for five quarters. This implies that the estimates for those periods are less accurate, compared with periods where a base or reference year is available.
For more detailed information on the strengths and limitations of the estimates presented in this bulletin, see Section 6: Methods used to produce the data in our associated QMI.
Back to table of contents9. Cite this statistical bulletin
Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 30 January 2025, ONS website, statistical bulletin, Estimates of quarterly greenhouse gas emissions (residence basis), UK: July to September 2024