Estimates of quarterly greenhouse gas emissions (residence basis), UK: July to September 2024

Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions using the Chow-Lin regression-based temporal disaggregation method.

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Contact:
Email Environmental Accounts team

Release date:
30 January 2025

Next release:
To be announced

1. Main points

  • We estimated UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a residence basis to be 99 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024; this was 0.2% higher than in Quarter 3 2023.

  • Residence-based GHG emissions were 1.77 tonnes of CO2e per person in Quarter 3 2024; this is down 45.5%, or 1.48 tonnes of CO2e per person, since 1999.

  • The UK emitted 0.156 tonnes of CO2e per million British pounds of economic activity (gross value added) in Quarter 3 2024; this is down 62.9% since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 1999.

  • These quarterly emissions estimates complement and draw on our annual residence-based emissions statistics.

  • All estimates in this bulletin are produced using modelling techniques; estimates for all quarters of 2023 and Quarters 1, Quarter 2 (Apr to June), and Quarter 3 2024 are subject to greater uncertainty because final emissions estimates for 2023 are not yet available, so we have modelled data over seven quarters.

  • From this bulletin, these estimates are designated as "official statistics", rather than "official statistics in development".

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We refer to residence-based (also known as production) emissions in this release. Territorial emissions, published by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, is the measure generally used for greenhouse gas emissions targets, including net zero by 2050. Footprint (or consumption) emissions, published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, account for emissions from trade. Please see Section 7: Data sources and quality for more information.

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2. Quarterly greenhouse gas emission estimates

We have produced estimates of total quarterly UK greenhouse gas (GHG) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, on a residence basis up to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 using modelling techniques. All GHG and CO2 estimates referred to in this bulletin are non-seasonally adjusted, unless otherwise specified.

Our Quarter 3 2024 estimate of total emissions on a residence basis is 99 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e). This is an increase of 0.2 Mt CO2e, or 0.2%, compared with the same quarter in 2023. Between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2022 and Quarter 4 2023, there were five consecutive year-on-year decreases. Since then, there have been three consecutive year-on-year increases between Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 and Quarter 3 2024.

Table 1 shows the change in total quarterly non-seasonally adjusted emissions estimates, compared with the same quarter in the previous year.

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3. Per head estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and gross value added

Residence-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were 1.77 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per person in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. Residence-based GHG emissions have decreased by 45.5%, or 1.48 tonnes of CO2e per person, since 1999 when the time series for this measure began.

These estimates are subject to uncertainty, so should be interpreted with caution. The underlying input data, the estimates informing the model, and the modelling process itself each introduce uncertainty that affects the accuracy of these estimates. The level of uncertainty is particularly high for all quarters of 2023 and Quarters 1 (Jan to Mar), Quarter 2 (Apr to June), and Quarter 3 2024 in this bulletin. This is because the final annual estimate of GHG emissions on a residence basis to which we constrain these estimates will not be published until summer 2025.

More information can be found in Section 6: Methods used to produce the data in our Estimates of UK quarterly GHG emissions (residence basis) quality and methodology information (QMI).

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4. Intensity of quarterly greenhouse gas emissions

Our residence-based emissions estimates are compiled in accordance with the United Nations System of Environmental Economic Accounting, which aligns with the UK System of National Accounts. This enables comparisons with important economic indicators, such as gross domestic product (GDP), and the calculation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity, in terms of emissions per unit of economic output.

The UK emitted 0.156 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per million British pounds of gross value added (GVA) in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. Emissions intensity has fallen 62.9% from 0.42 tonnes of CO2e per million British pounds of GVA in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 1999 (see Figure 3).

Emissions intensity can be used to examine the relationship between economic growth and GHG emissions on a residence basis. The general reduction in overall emissions intensity on this measure could be considered an indication that the UK is moving towards a lower carbon (emissions) economy.

This could be influenced by several factors, including changes in the structure of the economy and behavioural changes that may depict the interaction between the economy and the environment. For example, it could be related to:

  • some industries becoming more efficient in their production processes through the adoption of lower emission technologies

  • changes in the composition of the economy, where there is a growing shift from higher- to lower-emitting economic activities, like from manufacturing to services activities

  • a combination of these factors

All estimates of GVA are subject to revisions. For more information, please see Section 6: Revisions to GDP in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

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5. Data

Estimates of quarterly greenhouse gas emissions
Dataset | Released 30 January 2025
Estimates of UK quarterly greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on a residence basis.

Energy trends 
Dataset | Last updated 19 December 2024 
Quarterly publication from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, which presents data on the supply and demand of all the major fuels in the UK.

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6. Glossary

Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are those covered by the Paris Agreement, which has superseded the Kyoto Protocol. These include:

  • carbon dioxide (CO2)

  • methane (CH4)

  • nitrous oxide (N2O)

  • hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

  • perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

  • sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

  • nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)

These gases contribute directly to global warming and climate change, because of their positive radiative forcing effect. The potential of each GHG to cause global warming is assessed in relation to a given weight of CO2, so all greenhouse gas emissions are measured as carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e).

Residence basis

Estimates compiled on a residence basis include data relating to UK residents and UK-registered businesses, regardless of whether they are in the UK or overseas. Emissions released in the UK by tourists and foreign transport operations are excluded. For more detailed comparisons of UK emissions measures, please see our Measuring UK greenhouse gas emissions article.

Temporal disaggregation

Temporal disaggregation is the process of deriving high-frequency data (for example, quarterly) from low-frequency data (for example, annual).

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7. Data sources and quality

All estimates presented in this bulletin and our accompanying dataset have been produced using temporal disaggregation and modelling techniques. They are therefore subject to uncertainty.

The main sources of information and predictor indicators for producing these estimates are:

  • UK annual estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a residence basis from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)

  • Energy Trends from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), which provides information on UK energy production, consumption, and trade for energy overall and for specific fuels

We refer to residence-based (also known as production) emissions in this bulletin. Territorial emissions published by DESNZ is the measure generally used for GHG emissions targets, including net zero by 2050. Footprint (or consumption) emissions, published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, account for emissions from trade. More information on these three official measures of UK GHG emissions can be found in our Measuring UK greenhouse gas emissions explainer.

All estimates of the annual GHG series and the latest quarter of the energy trends are provisional and subject to revisions. We have published provisional estimates of emissions for 2023. However, a complete breakdown of emission data by more granular standard industrial classification (SIC) codes are required for the quarterly model. Annual estimates for 2023 will not be incorporated until our June 2025 release. The whole time series is updated for each iteration of this release, which means that the latest version supersedes all previous versions.

This bulletin presents non-seasonally adjusted estimates. Both non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data are available in our accompanying dataset.

Official statistics status

As official statistics, these are produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We are committed to the continued innovation and improvement of these data.

We have published quarterly GHG emissions estimates regularly since July 2023. We have automated the production process using Reproducible Analytical Pipelines (RAPs), as described in GOV.UK's blog post.

These statistics are no longer undergoing development or testing and are now designated as "official statistics". For more information on the methods used, the data they provide, and their strengths and limitations, see our Estimates of UK quarterly GHG emissions (residence basis) quality and methodology information (QMI).

You can read more about the different types of official statistics on the UK Statistics Authority website.

For further information, or if you have any views on these statistics or suggestions for improvement, you can contact us at environment.accounts@ons.gov.uk.

Strengths and limitations

These estimates are subject to uncertainty, both in the underlying estimates used with the model and through uncertainty introduced by the modelling itself. For instance, for periods where a base or reference year is unavailable (such as this quarter), we use "nowcasting" measures to extend the series for five quarters. This implies that the estimates for those periods are less accurate, compared with periods where a base or reference year is available.

For more detailed information on the strengths and limitations of the estimates presented in this bulletin, see Section 6: Methods used to produce the data in our associated QMI.

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9. Cite this statistical bulletin

Office for National Statistics (ONS), released 30 January 2025, ONS website, statistical bulletin, Estimates of quarterly greenhouse gas emissions (residence basis), UK: July to September 2024

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Contact details for this Statistical bulletin

Environmental Accounts team
environment.accounts@ons.gov.uk
Telephone: +44 1633 560378