Business investment in the UK: October to December 2024 revised results

• UK business investment decreased by 1.9% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, revised up from a 3.2% decrease in the provisional estimate.

• The largest contributors to the fall in business investment were decreases in transport, partially offset by increases in buildings and intellectual property products (IPP).

• UK business investment is 1.8% above the level seen in the same quarter a year ago.

• UK whole economy investment (technically known as gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)), which includes business and public sector investment, decreased by 0.6% in Quarter 4 2024, revised up from a 0.9% decrease in the provisional estimate.

• UK GFCF is 2.2% above the level seen in the same quarter a year ago.

This bulletin contains the latest updates to UK business investment and UK whole economy investment (technically known as gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)), which includes business and public sector investment data. Data are open to revision from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 for current price (CP) data and chained volume measure (CVM) estimates.

Figure 1: Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and business investment both decreased in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 for the first time since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023

UK business investment and whole economy investment, chained volume measure, seasonally adjusted, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 1997 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024

Notes

1. Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec).
2. UK business investment, chained volume measure, seasonally adjusted, excluding the reclassification of British nuclear fuels (BNFL) in Quarter 2 2005.
3. Quarter 2 2020 showed the largest fall on record for GFCF, excluding the reclassification of British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) in Quarter 2 2005.

Business investment

UK business investment decreased by 1.9% in Quarter 4 2024 and is 1.8% above where it was in the same quarter a year ago.

The Quarter 4 2024 decrease is mainly caused by negative contributions from transport. This is partially offset by positive contributions from other buildings and structures and intellectual property products (IPP), as shown in Figure 2.

The decrease in transport investment is partly the result of a reaction to the increase in the previous quarter, where the positive growth in Quarter 3 2024 was mainly caused by aircraft investment.

Whole economy investment

UK GFCF decreased by 0.6% in Quarter 4 2024 and is 2.2% above where it was in the same quarter a year ago.

The main contributor to the decline in GFCF in the latest quarter is transport with a smaller contribution from dwellings. However, this negative contribution is partially offset by rises in other buildings and structures, in IPP, and in ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment.

Government investment increased by 1.5% in Quarter 4 2024, revised down from a 4.0% increase in the provisional estimate.

This is the first period of negative growth for GFCF since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023, which itself followed a fall in Quarter 2 2023.

Business investment

In this release, UK business investment for Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 has been revised up to a 1.9% decrease from a 3.2% decrease in the provisional estimate. This revision is mainly caused by positive revisions for intellectual property products (IPP), transport, and ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment. Revisions partly reflect later survey data in addition to revisions to our seasonal adjustment models and the application of balancing adjustments as part of the GDP balancing process. Further information on the GDP balancing process can be found in our GDP Quarterly National Accounts, UK: October to December 2024 bulletin.

Broadly positive revisions to Business Investment in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 and Quarter 3 (Jul to Sept) 2023 onwards were partially offset by a downwards revision to Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2023. Later survey data and revisions to seasonal adjustment were the reasons behind these revisions.

Whole economy investment

UK whole economy investment (technically known as GFCF), which includes business and public sector investment, decreased by 0.6% in Quarter 4 2024, revised up from a 0.9% decrease in the provisional estimate. This upwards revision is the result of positively revised contributions from transport, IPP and ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment, partially offset by downwards revisions to other buildings and structures and transfer costs.

The revisions to contributions to GFCF growth since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 can be seen in Figure 3. The largest revision over this period occurred in Quarter 2 (Apr to Jun) 2024, where an upwards revision of 0.4 percentage points was caused by an increase in contributions from ICT equipment and other machinery and equipment, and IPP.

Other notable revisions include an upwards revision of 0.3 percentage points in transport in Quarter 3 (Jul to Sept) 2024 and a downwards revision of 0.3 percentage points in other buildings and structures and transfer costs in Quarter 3 2024. These revisions are the result of a combination of revised seasonal adjustment and later data.

Using data collated by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) from relevant national statistical institutes, we can compare whole economy investment (labelled gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in OECD data tables) within the G7 nations. Figure 4 shows annual whole economy investment as a percentage of GDP for the G7 nations from 1997 onwards. Whole economy investment in the UK was 17.9% of GDP in 2024, the lowest of the G7 nations.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Business investment quality and methodology information (QMI).

Revisions

In line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data are open to revision from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 for current price (CP) data, and chained volume measure (CVM) estimates.

Data in this bulletin

All data in this bulletin are presented in chained volume measure (CVM), unless otherwise specified. This means the effect of price changes is removed from the data (in other words, the data are deflated).

In Quarter 4 2024, the Quarterly Acquisitions and Disposals of Capital Assets Survey (QCAS), the largest data source for gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and business investment, had a response rate of 78.5% for estimates used in the revised release.

Adjustments

Large capital expenditure tends to be reported later in the data collection period than smaller capital expenditure. This means that larger expenditures are often included in the revised (month three) results but are not reported in time for the provisional (month two) results. This can result in upward revisions in the later estimates for business investment and GFCF. Following investigation of the impact of this effect, from Quarter 3 (Jul to Sept) 2013, a bias adjustment was introduced in the provisional estimate.

This adjustment was suspended in Quarter 3 2020 because of uncertainties surrounding the effect of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. However, the bias adjustment was reintroduced to business investment and GFCF, after further investigation and analysis of its impact since Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2021. As usual, we have removed the bias adjustment for the revised release.

Pausing of Producer prices publications 

As announced on 21 March 2025 in our Pausing of Producer prices publications statement, during work to improve the systems used to create the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Services Producer Price Indices (SPPI), our quality assurance identified a problem with the chain-linking methods used to calculate these indices. 

As these detailed price data are used within GDP calculations, including GFCF, this may lead to impacts on the level of some industries with revisions to estimates for services, production and construction particularly likely in 2022 and 2023. GFCF uses in its estimates, for example, deflators derived from PPIs, SPPIs and Import Price Indices (IPI).

At an aggregate level for GDP, these revisions should be offsetting to an extent, while taken alongside regular data deliveries. Early indications suggest that there will not be a notable change in the recent economic trends seen in these data, but we will update users once more information becomes available. We do not plan any changes to the publication timetable for monthly, quarterly or annual GDP. 

We will provide further information on the likely impacts as soon as is practicable. 

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in September 2013. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".