GDP monthly estimate, UK: December 2024

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in December 2024, largely because of growth in the service sector, following an unrevised growth of 0.1% in November 2024.

• Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to December 2024, compared with the three months to September 2024, mainly because of growth in the services sector.

• Monthly services output grew by 0.4% in December 2024, following growth of 0.2% in November 2024 (revised up from 0.1% growth in our previous publication), and grew by 0.2% in the three months to December 2024.

• Production output grew by 0.5% in December 2024, following a fall of 0.5% (revised down from a fall of 0.4% in our previous publication) in November 2024; production fell by 0.8% in the three months to December 2024, driven by a decline in manufacturing output.

• Construction output fell by 0.2% in December 2024, following growth of 0.6% (revised up from growth of 0.4% in our last publication) in November 2024, and grew by 0.5% in the three months to December 2024.

• Annually, output GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in 2024 compared with 2023.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in December 2024, following growth of 0.1% in November 2024 and a fall 0.1% in October 2024 (both unrevised from our previous publication).

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to December 2024, compared with the three months to September 2024, consistent with our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: October to December 2024 release. Services grew by 0.2% over this three-month period, while production fell by 0.8% and construction grew by 0.5%.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

In this release, January 2024 to November 2024 are open for revision, please see Section 8: Revisions to GDP for more detail.

Services output grew by 0.4% in December 2024 and was the largest contributor to growth in the month. Production also grew, by 0.5%, while construction fell by 0.2%.

Over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.2% in the three months to December 2024, compared with the three months to December 2023. Over this period, services grew by 1.7%, while production fell by 1.7% and construction grew by 0.9%.

Compared with the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 1.5% higher in December 2024.

Looking at annual growth, output GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in 2024 compared with 2023. This was driven by services output which grew by 1.3%, and partially offset by fall of 1.7% in production output, while construction grew by 0.4% in same period.

On the month, services output is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in December 2024, following growth of 0.2% in November 2024 (revised up from 0.1% growth in our previous publication). Of the 14 subsectors, output increased in eleven, with the remaining three subsectors seeing output decline in December 2024.

The largest positive contribution in the services sector in December 2024 came from the professional, scientific and technical activities subsector, where output rose by 1.2% during the month, following a fall of 0.5% in November 2024. Six out of the eight industries in this section experienced growth in December 2024, with the largest contribution coming from an increase of 3.4% in the advertising and market research industry.

The next largest positive contribution at the subsector level in December 2024 came from a 1.1% growth in administrative and support service activities, after two consecutive monthly declines in October and November 2024. The growth in December 2024 was mainly driven by office administrative, office support and other business support activities (up 1.9%); and travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (up 3.3%).

The largest negative contribution in December 2024 came from information and communication which fell by 0.4%. This was driven by computer programming, consultancy and related activities, which fell by 1.3%, and publishing activities, which fell by 5.7%. This was partially offset by growth of 8.4% in the motion picture, video and TV programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities industry.

At the industry level, the largest positive contributions to services in December 2024 came from wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.5%); motion picture, video and TV programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities (up 8.4%); and food and beverage service activities (up 2.0%). The largest negative contributions to the month came from computer programming, consultancy and related activities (down 1.3%); publishing activities (down 5.7%); and wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (down 1.7%).

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to December 2024, compared with the three months to September 2024. There was a rise in output in 8 of the 14 subsectors in this period.

The human health and social work activities subsector was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, growing by 0.9% in the three months to December 2024, compared with the three months to September 2024. The next largest contribution came from professional, scientific and technical activities, where output increased by 0.9%. The largest negative contribution during the three months to December 2024 was administrative and support service activities, which fell by 1.4%. 

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of services output can be found in our Data sources catalogue. The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. In December 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 86.5%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rates for the services sector in 2022, 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.0%, 97.5% and 95.8%, respectively.

Consumer-facing services

Output in consumer-facing services increased by 0.4% in December 2024, following a revised growth of 0.6% in November 2024 (this figure was given as 0.5% growth in our previous bulletin). Food and beverage service activities was the largest contributor to the increase at the industry level, with output growing by 2.0%. This was followed by other personal service activities, where output increased by 2.8%. There was a fall of 1.7% in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in December 2024, which was the largest negative contributor to consumer-facing services in the month.

Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.1% in the three months to December 2024, compared with the three months to September 2024. The largest positive contributions in this period came from growth of 5.6% in the travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities industry. This was followed by other personal service activities, where output increased by 2.1%. The largest negative contribution was a fall of 0.8% in the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, in the three months to December 2024.

More information on these data is available in our Consumer-Facing Services December 2024 dataset.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: December 2024 release.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in December 2024, following a revised fall of 0.5% in November 2024 (this figure was a fall of 0.4% in our previous bulletin). The December 2024 growth was a result of a 0.7% growth in manufacturing and a 1.5% growth in mining and quarrying. These growths were partially offset by a fall of 0.6% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, and a 0.4% fall in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities in December 2024.

In the three months to December 2024, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.8% when compared with the three months to September 2024, mainly because of a 0.7% fall in manufacturing over this period. There were also negative contributions from mining and quarrying, which decreased by 2.5% and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, which fell by 0.7% in the same period. These were partially offset by water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output, which increased by 1.2% in the three months to December 2024.

Manufacturing output grew by 0.7% in December 2024 and was the largest contributor to the growth in production output during the month, following a fall of 0.3% in November 2024. Manufacturing output increased in 7 of the 13 subsectors in December 2024. The largest positive contributions in December 2024 came from the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (up 5.1%), following three consecutive monthly declines in this industry, and manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (up 5.9%). The largest negative contributions in November 2024 came from the manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products (down 3.6%), and the manufacture of transport equipment (down 1.4%).

Figure 6 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. In December 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 83.8%. We would expect this to increase over time, as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with the National accounts revisions policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2022, 2023 and 2024 now stand at 96.9%, 97.7% and 95.9%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our Data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: December 2024 bulletin.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in December 2024, which follows an upwardly revised increase of 0.6% in November 2024 (this figure was given as 0.4% growth in our previous bulletin). The decrease in monthly output in December 2024 came solely from a fall of 1.8% in repair and maintenance, while new work grew by 1.1%.

Construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in the three months to December 2024 compared with the three months to September 2024. New work increased by 1.2% over the period, whereas repair and maintenance fell by 0.4%. Within new work, the largest contributor to the increase came from private new housing, which grew by 1.3%. While the private new housing sector grew in the three months to December 2024, it still remains 20.4% lower than its highest post-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic level, recorded in the three months to September 2022. 

In repair and maintenance, the largest negative contributor came from private housing repair and maintenance which fell by 2.5%.

Five out of the nine sectors saw decreases in December 2024. At the sector level, the main contributors to the monthly decrease were non-housing repair and maintenance and private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 1.8% and 1.4%, respectively. Figure 8 shows both the monthly and three-monthly contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our monthly business survey. For December 2024, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 76.0%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.8% and 95.3%, respectively, whilst the average response rate for 2024 is 91.8%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: December 2024 new orders and Construction Output Price Indices October to December 2024.

On an annual basis, output gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in 2024, this follows a growth of 0.4% in 2023. Services output was the largest contributor to growth in this period, increasing by 1.3%. Construction, and agriculture, forestry and fishing also both saw an increase in output in 2024, by 0.4% and 1.0%, respectively. These growths were partially offset by a 1.7% fall in production during the same period, with all four subsectors within production declining in 2024.

At industry level during 2024, twelve out of the twenty subsectors experienced growth, with the other eight industries falling during the period. The largest contributions to the growth came from professional, scientific and technical activities, which grew by 3.2% and human health and social work activities, which grew by 2.9% in 2024. The largest negative contribution came from mining and quarrying, which fell by 7.2% in 2024.

Professional, scientific and technical activities grew by 1.2% in December 2024, continuing the long-term trend of growth in this subsector (Figure 10). Output in this subsector increased by 0.9% in the three months to December 2024 and grew by 3.2% annually in 2024 compared with 2023. Professional, scientific and technical activities was the largest contributor to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in December 2024 and in 2024 as a whole.

The growth in professional scientific and technical activities across 2024 has been driven by widespread growth in this subsection of services. When comparing 2024 to 2023, seven of the eight industries have grown, with the largest contribution coming from scientific research and development, despite a fall in December 2024 (Figure 11).

This release gives data for December 2024 for the first time. January 2024 to November 2024 are open for revision, which is consistent with our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: October to December 2024 release. Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly GDP and main sectors for 2024 since the last monthly publication on 16 January 2024.

The level of accuracy of the growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. Growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and main sectors to four decimal places data. However, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended, because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on data sources and quality across our main data sources is available in:

• our Index of Services, UK: December 2024 bulletin

• our Index of Production, UK: December 2024 bulletin

• our Construction output in Great Britain: December 2024, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices October to December 2024 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found in:

• our Index of Services response rates dataset

• our Index of Production response rates dataset

• our Construction response rates dataset

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry in monthly GDP will differ from those published in our Construction output bulletin, as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences, given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industries output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual blue book process, here both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2022 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2023 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

Strengths and limitation

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in for highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.