Table of contents
- UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the three months to January 2019
- The services sector was the main driver of GDP growth, while the production and construction sectors contracted
- Rolling three-month growth was 0.2% in the three months to January 2019
- GDP grew by 0.5% in January 2019
- The services sector grew by 0.5% in the three months to January 2019
- Rolling three-month production growth fell, driven by manufacturing, despite both increasing on the month
- Monthly growth in construction bounced back in January 2019 after negative growth in December 2018
- Things you need to know about this release
- Quality and methodology
1. UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% in the three months to January 2019
Figure 1: Rolling three-month growth remained at the same rate seen in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2018
UK GDP growth, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017 to November 2018 to January 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics – GDP monthly estimate
Notes:
- Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to Sept), Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec).
- Rolling three-month estimates are calculated by comparing GDP in a three-month period with GDP in the previous three-month period, for example, GDP in November to January compared with the previous August to October.
Download this chart Figure 1: Rolling three-month growth remained at the same rate seen in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2018
Image .csv .xlsCommenting on today’s GDP figures, Head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said:
“Across the latest three months, growth remained weak with falls in manufacture of metal products, cars and construction repair work all dampening economic growth. These were offset by strong performances in wholesale, IT and health services.
“This sluggish growth came despite the economy bouncing back from a weak December.”
2. The services sector was the main driver of GDP growth, while the production and construction sectors contracted
Figure 2: The services sector was the only positive contributor to GDP growth, at 0.38 percentage points
Contribution to GDP growth, UK, November 2018 to January 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics – GDP monthly estimate
Download this chart Figure 2: The services sector was the only positive contributor to GDP growth, at 0.38 percentage points
Image .csv .xlsThe services sector was the largest contributor to rolling three-month gross domestic product (GDP) growth, increasing by 0.5% in the three months to January 2019. However, the production and construction sectors had negative contributions to GDP growth, contracting by 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively.
Back to table of contents3. Rolling three-month growth was 0.2% in the three months to January 2019
Figure 3: Rolling three-month growth remained subdued in January 2019 after slowing since August 2018
Growth, three-months on previous three-months, UK, December 2017 to February 2018 until November 2018 to January 2019
Source: Office for National Statistics – GDP monthly estimate
Notes:
- Rolling three-month estimates are calculated by comparing GDP in a three-month period with GDP in the previous three-month period, for example, GDP in November to January compared with the previous August to October.
Download this chart Figure 3: Rolling three-month growth remained subdued in January 2019 after slowing since August 2018
Image .csv .xlsRolling three-month growth was 0.2% in January 2019, the same growth rate as in December 2018.
Rolling three-month growth is based on output gross value added (GVA) and so there will be discrepancies in the time series with our quarterly estimates of gross domestic product (GDP), which include information on the expenditure and income approaches to measuring GDP.
Back to table of contents4. GDP grew by 0.5% in January 2019
| November 18 | December 18 | January 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.2% | -0.4% | 0.5% |
| Index of Services | 0.3% | -0.2% | 0.3% |
| Index of Production | -0.3% | -0.5% | 0.6% |
| Manufacturing | -0.1% | -0.7% | 0.8% |
| Construction | 0.1% | -2.8% | 2.8% |
| Agriculture | 0.5% | 0.4% | -1.3% |
Download this table Table 1: Breakdown of GDP growth rates by month
.xls .csvMonthly gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 0.5% in January 2019, as the economy rebounded from the negative growth seen in December 2018. Services, production, manufacturing and construction all experienced positive month-on-month growth in January 2019 after contracting in December 2018.
The monthly growth rate for GDP is volatile and so it should be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the longer-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.
Back to table of contents5. The services sector grew by 0.5% in the three months to January 2019
Figure 4: Output in IT, wholesale and retail increased in January 2019, while professional activities output declined
Monthly index, UK, February 2018 to January 2019, base month February 2018
Source: Office for National Statistics – GDP monthly estimate
Download this chart Figure 4: Output in IT, wholesale and retail increased in January 2019, while professional activities output declined
Image .csv .xlsThe services sector grew by 0.3% in the month of January 2019. The main drivers of growth within services were wholesale and retail trade, with growth of 1.4%, and information and communication, with growth of 1.7%. These both saw a return to growth after falling slightly last month (Figure 4). The largest negative contributor to growth within services was professional, scientific and technical activities, which contracted by 1.3% on the month. This subsector saw a steep decline in output in January 2019, despite performing relatively well over the past year.
Rolling three-month growth in the services sector was 0.5% in January 2019. The main contributor to this was wholesale and retail trade, with growth of 1.1%. This was driven mostly by wholesale trade.
Back to table of contents6. Rolling three-month production growth fell, driven by manufacturing, despite both increasing on the month
Figure 5: Monthly production and manufacturing output increased for the first time since mid-2018
Monthly index, UK, February 2018 to January 2019, base month February 2018
Source: Office for National Statistics – GDP monthly estimate
Download this chart Figure 5: Monthly production and manufacturing output increased for the first time since mid-2018
Image .csv .xlsProduction output grew by 0.6% in the month of January 2019. Three out of four main subsectors grew this month. Both the manufacturing subsector and the mining and quarrying subsector grew by 0.8%, while electricity and gas rose by 0.3%. Meanwhile, water supply fell by 0.9%. This was the first positive monthly manufacturing growth in seven months and the first positive monthly production growth in six months.
Rolling three-month growth in the production industries was negative 0.8%. This was driven by a fall of 0.7% in manufacturing, although mining and quarrying fell by 1.7% and electricity and gas also fell by 1.7%.
Back to table of contents7. Monthly growth in construction bounced back in January 2019 after negative growth in December 2018
Figure 6: Construction output has returned to a similar level to that in November 2018, after falling in December 2018
Monthly index, UK, February 2018 to January 2019, base month February 2018
Source: Office for National Statistics – GDP monthly estimate
Download this chart Figure 6: Construction output has returned to a similar level to that in November 2018, after falling in December 2018
Image .csv .xlsRolling three-month growth in construction was negative 0.6% in January 2019.
Back to table of contents8. Things you need to know about this release
Following the announcement by the UK Statistics Authority on 7 March 2019, Construction Output Price Indices, Great Britain Construction Output Statistics and Construction New Orders have been re-designated as National Statistics. For more information, see the Construction output in Great Britain release.
Back to table of contents9. Quality and methodology
The Gross domestic product (GDP) Quality and Methodology Information report contains important information on:
- the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data
- uses and users of the data
- how the output was created
- the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data