GDP monthly estimate, UK: February 2025

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in February 2025, with growths in all main sectors, following January 2025 which showed no growth (revised up from a fall of 0.1% in our previous publication).

• Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025, compared with the three months to November 2024, mainly because of growth in the services sector.

• Monthly services output grew by 0.3% in February 2025, following unrevised growth of 0.1% in January 2025, and grew by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025.

• Production output grew by 1.5% in February 2025, following a fall of 0.5% in January 2025 (revised up from a 0.9% fall in our previous publication), and grew by 0.7% in the three months to February 2025, with manufacturing output driving the monthly and three-month growths.

• Construction output grew by 0.4% in February 2025, following a fall of 0.3% in January 2025 (revised down from a fall of 0.2% in our previous publication), but showed no growth in the three months to February 2025.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in February 2025, with growths in all main sectors, following January 2025 which showed no growth (revised up from a 0.1% fall in our previous publication)

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025, compared with the three months to November 2024, mainly because of growth of 0.6% in the services sector. Production sector output also rose in this period, by 0.7%, while construction showed no growth.

Note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision in future publications (positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

This publication contains revisions to January 2025 for the first time, while there are also revisions to January 2023 to December 2024 consistent with our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: October to December 2024 bulletin, released on 28 March 2025.

All three main sectors grew in February 2025: services output increased by 0.3% and was the largest contributor to the monthly growth in GDP, production output rose by 1.5%, and construction output increased by 0.4%.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.4% in the three months to February 2025, compared with the three months to February 2024. Over this period services grew by 1.8%, while production fell by 0.5% and construction grew by 1.0%.

Compared to the same month a year ago, GDP is estimated to be 1.4% higher in February 2025.

Services output is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in February 2025, after unrevised growth of 0.1% in January 2025, and output increased in 9 of the 14 subsectors on the month.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025, compared with the three months to November 2024. There was a rise in output in 11 of the 14 subsectors in this period with the largest positive contributions coming from administrative and support service activities (up 1.9%), wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (up 1.0%), and information and communication (up 1.6%) in the three months to February 2025. Figure 3 shows the monthly and three-month contributions at the subsector level for services in February 2025.

The largest positive contribution in the services sector in February 2025 came from the information and communication subsector where output rose by 2.2% on the month, following a fall of 0.4% in January 2025. At the industry level in this subsector there were widespread rises with five of the six industries growing in February 2025; the largest positive contributions came from computer programming, consultancy and related activities (up 2.0%), telecommunications (up 3.5%), and publishing activities (up 6.4%).

The next largest positive contribution at the subsector level in February 2025 came from the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector where output rose by 1.0% on the month, following growth of 0.6% in January 2025. All three industries in this subsector experienced growth in February 2025, with the largest contributions coming from a 3.0% increase in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles and a 1.0% rise in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

Administrative and support service activities grew by 1.3% in February 2025 for its third consecutive monthly growth. There were widespread increases in output (in five of the six industries) with a 2.0% rise in the office administrative, office support and other business support activities industry, providing the largest contribution to the subsector’s growth.

The largest negative contribution in February 2025 came from other service activities which fell by 2.8% after growth of 3.4% in January 2025, driven by a 3.1% fall in the other personal service activities industry. Professional, scientific and technical activities also fell on the month, by 0.5%, mainly because of a 6.1% decline in the scientific research and development industry which follows a growth of 5.6% for this industry in January 2025.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 89.1% in February 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.5% and 97.2%, respectively.

Consumer-facing services

Output in consumer-facing services increased by 0.7% in February 2025, following a fall of 0.1% in January 2025 (revised down from a 0.1% rise in our previous publication). The largest contributions at the industry level came from a 3.0% growth in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, a 1.0% increase in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles and a 2.1% rise in food and beverage service activities, while the largest partially offsetting fall came from a 3.1% decline in other personal service activities.

Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025, compared with the three months to November 2024. The largest positive contributions in this period came from other personal service activities (up 4.8%) and travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities (up 8.1%). The largest partially offsetting fall came from wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles which fell by 1.5% in this three-month period.

More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services February 2025 dataset.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in the Index of Services, UK: February 2025 bulletin.

On the month, production output is estimated to have risen by 1.5% in February 2025, following a fall of 0.5% in January 2025 (revised up from a 0.9% fall in our previous publication). The increase in February 2025 was mainly driven by manufacturing output growing by 2.2% on the month. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply increased by 2.0% while water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities increased by 1.1%. There was a partially offsetting fall of 3.0% in mining and quarrying in February 2025, after growth of 0.8% in January 2025 (revised up from a fall of 3.3% in our previous publication and the main reason for the upwards revision to production growth in January 2025).

In the three months to February 2025, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.7%. This period saw growths in three of the four subsectors: manufacturing (up 0.6%), water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (up 2.8%) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 1.6%), while mining and quarrying output fell by 0.7% in the three months to February 2025.

Manufacturing output rose by 2.2% in February 2025, following a fall of 1.0% in January 2025 (revised up from a 1.1% fall in our previous publication), and this subsector was the largest contributor to the overall increase in production output.

Across manufacturing there was widespread growth in February 2025, with rises in 10 of the 13 manufacturing subsectors. The largest contribution was from a growth of 9.8% in the manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products, following two consecutive falls in January 2025 (down 0.7%) and December 2024 (down 3.7%), and the index is now at its highest level since December 2021. There was also growth of 4.4% in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations industry, following a fall of 3.4% in January 2025. The manufacture of transport equipment subsector increased by 1.8% in February 2025, driven by the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry growing by 2.6% on the month following growth of 0.8% in January 2025, but this industry remains 10.1% below its level in February 2024.

Figure 6 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing subsectors.

Looking more broadly, manufacturing output rose by 0.6% in the three months to February 2025, compared with the three months to November 2024, with 8 of the 13 subsectors growing over this period. The largest contributors here were the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified (n.e.c.), which was up 5.1% in the three months to February 2025. The manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations industry had the second largest contribution in this period, growing by 2.8% in the three months to February 2025.

Our Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. The turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 88.3% in February 2025. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with our National Accounts revision policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2023 and 2024 now stand at 97.7% and 97.5%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: February 2025 bulletin.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in February 2025, following a fall of 0.3% in January 2025 (revised down from a fall of 0.2% in our previous publication). The rise in monthly output in February 2025 came from both new work and repair and maintenance, which grew by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

Construction output is estimated to have shown no growth in the three months to February 2025 compared with the three months to November 2024. New work increased by 1.2% over the period, whereas repair and maintenance fell by 1.5%. Within new work, the largest positive contributor came from public other new work, which grew by 11.4%. In repair and maintenance, the largest negative contributor came from private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 3.2%.

Five out of the nine sectors saw increases in February 2025. At the sector level, the main contributors to the monthly increase were public other new work and public housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 4.4% and 4.0%, respectively.

Figure 8 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to construction output from each of the construction sectors.

Construction data are sourced from our monthly business survey. For February 2025, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 79.7%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.8% and 95.3%, respectively, whilst the average response rate for 2024 is 94.9%.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: February 2025 bulletin.

In the automotive industry both the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers and wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles saw growth in February 2025, up 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively. While both saw growth in February 2025, it should be noted that both are down over the longer term when compared with February 2024 (negative 10.1% and negative 1.1%, respectively). Looking at the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Trades (SMMT) data this supports the longer-term picture with new car registrations down 1.1% and vehicle manufacturing down 11.6% in February 2025 compared with February 2024.

This release gives revisions for January 2025 for the first time, taking on late and updated source data since our last publication on 14 March 2025.

January 2023 to December 2024 have also been revised in line with our GDP quarterly estimate, UK: October to December 2024 bulletin, released on 28 March 2025.

The upwards revision to production growth in January 2025 is mainly because of updated source data in the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas industry.

More information on the revisions from January 2023 to December 2024 can be found in our GDP quarterly estimate, UK: October to December 2024 release on 28 March 2025.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our Monthly GDP and main sectors to four decimal places dataset, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: February 2025
• Index of Production, UK: February 2025
• Construction output in Great Britain: February 2025

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found below:

• Index of Services response rates
• Index of Production response rates
• Construction response rates

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimates of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• Rail transport
• Accommodation
• Food and beverage service activities
• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental
• Veterinary activities
• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities
• Gambling and betting services
• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities
• Activities of membership organisations
• Other personal service activities
• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Intermediate consumption in early estimates of monthly GDP

Monthly GDP measures the gross value added (GVA) of each industry in the economy. GVA is derived as the industries output minus its intermediate consumption, where output is the value of goods and services produced and intermediate consumption is the value of goods and services purchased to be used in the production of goods and services.

Estimates of intermediate consumption are only collected annually. For most industries, our monthly estimates are based on deflated turnover or volume estimates of output as a proxy for GVA. Complete estimates of GVA are calculated as part of our annual Blue Book process, here both output and intermediate consumption are measured. The annual process for calculating estimates of GVA is described in our Double deflation and the supply use framework in the UK National Accounts article.

The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last year where annual GVA estimates are available. Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output. The last year where annual GVA estimates are available is 2022 and the intermediate consumption ratios for each section are shown in Table 2.

When the annual data for 2023 are available, if the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate.

The annual 2023 data will be included for the first time in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2025 bulletin, published on 30 September 2025.

Strengths and limitations

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled “accredited official statistics”.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) Quality and Methodology Information.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

Pausing of Producer Prices publications

As announced on 21 March 2025, during work to improve the systems used to create the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Services Producer Price Indices (SPPI), our quality assurance identified a problem with the chain-linking methods used to calculate the PPI and SPPI indices.

Our investigations so far have concluded the problem affects the period from December 2008 onwards. However, investigations suggest that the main impact on annual producer price inflation rates was in 2022 and 2023, because of the large movements in relative prices during that period.

As these detailed price data are used within our GDP calculations, this may lead to impacts on the level of some industries, with revisions to estimates for services, production and construction particularly likely in 2022 and 2023. At an aggregate level for GDP, these revisions should be offsetting to an extent, while taken alongside regular data deliveries. Early indications suggest that there will not be a notable change in the recent economic trends seen in these data, but we will update users once more information becomes available. We do not plan any changes to the publication timetable for monthly, quarterly or annual GDP and will continue to use PPI estimates compiled under the current methodology in these publications while the issues are investigated. We will provide further information on the likely impacts as soon as is practicable.

A further update on the PPI and SPPI was published at the same time as this release on 11 April 2025.

Seasonal adjustment

The monthly estimates of GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed. For more information, please see our seasonal adjustment methodology page.

In our monthly GDP estimates, seasonal adjustment is applied at the industry level and the seasonally adjusted series are aggregated to create estimates by sector and total output. As part of our quality assurance approach, residual seasonality checks are regularly completed by our time series analysis team on both the directly seasonally adjusted series, and also the indirectly derived aggregate time series.