GDP monthly estimate, UK: March 2024

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in March 2024, following growth of 0.2% in February 2024 (revised up from 0.1% growth in our previous publication) and an unrevised growth of 0.3% in January 2024.

• Real gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to March 2024, compared with the three months to December 2023.

• On a quarterly basis, this gives growth of 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, following declines of 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 and 0.1% Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023. For further details, see our GDP first quarterly estimate UK: January to March 2024 bulletin.

• Services output grew by 0.5% in March 2024, following growth of 0.3% in February 2024 (revised up from 0.1% growth in our previous publication), and grew by 0.7% in the three months to March 2024; services output was the largest contributor to the growth in GDP on both the month and the three months to March 2024.

• Production output grew by 0.2% in March 2024, following growth of 1.0% in February 2024 (revised down from 1.1% in our previous publication), and grew by 0.8% in the three months to March 2024.

• Construction output fell by 0.4% in March 2024, following a fall of 2.0% in February 2024 (revised down from a 1.9% fall in our previous publication), and fell by 0.9% in the three months to March 2024.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.6% in the three months to March 2024, compared with the three months to December 2023, consistent with our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2024 bulletin. Services output was the main contributor with a growth of 0.7% in this period, while production output rose by 0.8% and construction fell by 0.9%.

On a quarterly basis, this gives growth of 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, following declines of 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 and 0.1% Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023. For further detail, see our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2024 bulletin.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in March 2024, following growth of 0.2% in February 2024 (revised up from 0.1% in our previous publication) and an unrevised growth of 0.3% in January 2024.

This release contains revisions to January 2024 and February 2024. For an overview of revisions in this release, see Section 6: Revisions to GDP. It is important to note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative). Please see our article, Why GDP figures are revised, for more information.

Services output grew by 0.5% in March 2024 and was the largest contributor to the growth in GDP in March 2024. Production output also grew, by 0.2%, while construction output fell by 0.4% in March 2024.

GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in March 2024 compared with the same month last year and, looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to March 2024 compared with the three months to March 2023.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in the three months to March 2024 compared with the three months to December 2023. There was widespread growth with output in 11 of the 14 subsectors rising over this period.

Transportation and storage was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, growing by 3.7% in the three months to March 2024. The next largest contributions came from professional, scientific, and technical activities, which grew by 1.3% and admin and support service activities, with output here rising by 1.7%.

On the month, services output is estimated to have grown by 0.5% in March 2024, following a rise of 0.3% in February 2024 (revised up from 0.1% in our previous publication), with 10 of the 14 subsectors showing growth in March 2024. Figure 3 shows both the monthly and the three-month contributions from the services sector to gross domestic product (GDP) growth in March 2024.

The largest positive contribution at the subsector level in services in March 2024 came from human health and social work activities, which rose by 1.1% in the month. This was driven by growth of 1.6% in human health activities. There was no industrial action in March 2024 compared with five days of industrial action by junior doctors in February 2024, when NHS England reported 91,048 inpatient and outpatient hospital appointments were rescheduled.

Also contributing positively to the month was admin and support service activities, which grew by 1.6% in March 2024, driven by a 3.3% rise in office administrative, office support and other business support activities and 2.7% growth in employment activities. Wholesale and retail trade: repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles also saw growth in the month, up 0.9%. This was mainly attributed to 2.2% growth in wholesale trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles.

The largest negative contribution to services growth in March 2024 came from arts, entertainment and recreation, down 3.1% in the month, following four consecutive monthly growths. The fall in March 2024 was driven by a fall of 8.8% in the creative arts and entertainment activities industry.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our data sources catalogue. The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 42.9% of the services sector by industry weight. In March 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 80.9%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 97.0% and 97.1%.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services grew by 0.6% in the three months to March 2024 compared with the three months to December 2023. The main driver to the growth was a 2.0% rise in output in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles. More information in this industry can be found in our Retail sales, Great Britain: March 2024 bulletin. The largest negative contributor was buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental, which fell by 0.9% in the three months to March 2024.

Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.7% in March 2024, following a fall of 0.1% in February 2024 (unrevised from our previous publication), as shown in Figure 4. The main drivers to the growth in March 2024 were growths of 2.4% in food and beverage service activities and 3.4% in accommodation. The main offsetting movement came from veterinary activities, which fell by 2.4% in March 2024.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: March 2024.

Production output is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in the three months to March 2024 compared with the three months to December 2023. This was driven by a 1.4% rise in manufacturing output. Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply also contributed positively, with a 0.4% growth in this period, while there were falls of 2.4% in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities and 2.2% in mining and quarrying.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in March 2024, following growth of 1.0% in February 2024 (revised down from 1.1% growth in our previous publication) and a fall of 0.5% in January 2024 (revised down from a fall of 0.3% in our previous publication).

Mining and quarrying output grew by 1.0% following three consecutive monthly falls. The growth in March 2024 was driven entirely by a 1.6% growth in the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas industry.

Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply output fell by 0.9% in March 2024, driven by a 9.0% fall in the manufacture of gas, distribution of gaseous fuels through mains, steam and aircon supply industry.

Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output fell by 0.1% in March 2024, with falls in three of the four industries within the subsector. Only sewerage grew (up 1.7%) in March 2024 in this subsector.

Manufacturing output rose by 0.3% in March 2024 and was the largest contributor to the growth in production output in the month. The largest contributing industry was the manufacture of pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations with a 7.6% growth in March 2024. The next largest contribution came from a 1.1% growth in the manufacture of food products, beverages, and tobacco industry.

Meanwhile, there were partially offsetting falls in 6 of the 13 manufacturing subsectors. The largest negative contributor in March 2024 was a 2.8% fall in the manufacture of transport equipment, following five consecutive monthly growths (Figure 6).

Figure 7 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing sub-sectors.

In March 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 78.2%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with the National Accounts revision policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 96.9% and 97.2%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our data source catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: March 2024.

Construction output is estimated to have fallen 0.9% in the three months to March 2024 compared with the three months to December 2023. New work decreased 1.8% over the period, while repair and maintenance rose by 0.3%. Within new work, the largest contributor to the decrease came from private commercial new work, which decreased by 5.3%.

In March 2024, monthly construction output is estimated to have decreased 0.4% in volume terms. This follows a decrease of 2.0% (revised down from a 1.9% fall in our previous publication) in February 2024. The decrease in monthly output in March 2024 came from decreases in both new work (0.7% fall) and repair and maintenance (0.1% fall).

Five out of the nine sectors saw a decrease on the month. At the sector level, the main contributors to the monthly decrease were infrastructure new work, and non-housing repair and maintenance, which decreased 3.6% and 2.4%, respectively.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). For March 2024, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 69.6%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.7% and 94.8%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: March 2024, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, January to March 2024 bulletin.

This release contains revisions to January 2024 and February 2024, consistent with our Gross domestic product (GDP) first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2024 bulletin, published on the same day. Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly growth for GDP and its main sectors.

The revision to services growth in January and February 2024 was predominantly caused by upward revisions in the following industries because of higher quality quarterly sources replacing initial monthly estimates:

• human health activities
• financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding
• education

The revision to production growth in January 2024 was mainly caused by updated source data in the electric power generation, transmission and distribution industry. Revisions to February 2024 can be largely attributed to late and updated monthly business survey responses in the water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities subsector.

The construction revisions in both January and February 2024 were caused by late and updated Monthly Business Survey (MBS) responses.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Construction output in Great Britain: March 2024, new orders and Construction Output Price Indices, January to March 2024
• Index of Production, UK: March 2024
• Index of Services, UK: March 2024

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found below:

• Construction response rates
• Index of Production response rates
• Index of Services response rates

Our Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. However, there are reasons as to why these would not provide the same estimate as to where the economy is relative to its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels. This primarily reflects that monthly estimate of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income, and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey (ABS) in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles
• rail transport
• accommodation
• food and beverage service activities
• buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental
• veterinary activities
• travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities
• gambling and betting services
• sports activities and amusement and recreation activities
• activities of membership organisations
• other personal service activities
• activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Blue Book 2024 publication update

The UK National Accounts, The Blue Book 2024 scheduled for 31 July 2024 has now been moved to the more usual timetable of 31 October 2024 to allow us further time to update the base year from 2019 to 2022 and assure the quality of this granular data.

As a result, UK National Accounts, The Blue Book 2024 and UK Balance of Payments, The Pink Book: 2024 will now be published on 31 October 2024 rather than 31 July 2024. This means that Blue Book 2024 consistent data will be included for the first time in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin, published on 30 September 2024. Additionally, a new publication, which focuses on Blue Book aggregates up to the end of 2022, will be published at 7am on 7 August 2024.

These revisions will be included in our GDP monthly estimate, UK: August 2024 bulletin publication on 11 October 2024.

The revision period for the June 2024 quarterly National Accounts will now be for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 only, in line with our standard National Accounts revisions policy.

Quality and methodology information (QMI) on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI report.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. Therefore, this indicator should be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.