GDP monthly estimate, UK: May 2023

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in May 2023 after growth of 0.2% in April 2023, which is unrevised from the previous publication.

• Looking at the broader picture, GDP has shown no growth in the three months to May 2023.

• Production output fell by 0.6% in May 2023 after a fall of 0.2% in April 2023, revised up from a fall of 0.3% in the previous publication; this sector was the main contributor to the fall in monthly GDP in May.

• The construction sector fell by 0.2% in May 2023 following a fall of 0.9% in April 2023, revised down from a fall of 0.6% in the previous publication.

• Services output showed no growth in May 2023 following growth of 0.3% in April 2023, unrevised from the previous publication.

• Output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.2% in May 2023 following growth of 1.1% in April 2023, revised up from growth of 1.0% in the previous publication.

• Revisions for the period January to April 2023 are included in this publication.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in May 2023 (Figure 1) following growth of 0.2% in April 2023. Monthly GDP is now estimated to be 0.2% above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) levels (February 2020). The King’s Coronation on 6 May 2023 led to an additional bank holiday on Monday 8 May. More information on this bank holiday is in Section 6: Cross-industry themes and Section 10: Measuring the data.

Looking more broadly, GDP showed no growth in the three months to May 2023 when compared with the three months to February 2023. Services also showed no growth in the three months to May, while production grew by 0.4% and construction grew by 0.2%.

Output by the services sector showed no growth in May 2023. Production output fell by 0.6% and construction output fell by 0.2%.

Monthly GDP fell by 0.4% in May 2023 compared with the same month last year. For comparison, monthly GDP grew by 0.5% between April 2022 and April 2023. The Platinum Jubilee, and the move of the May bank holiday, led to an additional working day in May 2022 and two fewer working days in June 2022. This should be considered when interpreting the seasonally-adjusted movements involving May and June 2022.

Service output showed no growth in May 2023, following growth of 0.3% in April 2023. Overall, the services sector showed no growth in the three months to May 2023 compared with the three months to February 2023. Figure 3 shows the monthly contributions from the services sector to gross domestic product (GDP) in May 2023.

Although there was no overall change in total services output in May 2023, within the sector the largest increase was a 1.1% increase in human health and social work activities. This was largely caused by an increase of 1.8% in human health activities after falls in March and April 2023. There was no industrial action by junior doctors in May 2023, compared with four days of industrial action in April 2023. There were two days of industrial action by nurses in England in May, compared with none in April.

There was also increased output from arts, entertainment and recreation (up 1.8%), education (up 0.5%) and information and communication (up 0.4%). The growth in arts, entertainment and recreation output was caused by growth of 3.5% in creative arts and entertainment activities (after a fall of 4.1% in April) and continued growth in sports activities and amusement and recreation activities (up 1.7%).

These increases were offset by a fall in wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which fell by 0.5%, largely caused by a fall of 1.4% in wholesale trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles. Administration and support services fell by 0.7%, largely caused by a fall of 3.5% in employment activities. There was anecdotal evidence from the monthly business survey that there was less demand for recruitment services in May 2023, which is supported by our Vacancies and jobs in the UK: July 2023 bulletin, which shows the 12th consecutive fall in vacancies. Accommodation and food services fell by 0.9% in May 2023, with falls in both accommodation (down 0.4%) and food and beverage services (down 1.1%).

NHS Test and Trace and coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination programme activity increased by 20% in May 2023 after a rise of 99% in April 2023 but remains significantly lower than its peak towards the end of 2021. A full record of the volume estimates of Test and Trace and vaccination programmes, along with their contribution to GDP growth, can be found in the accompanying dataset. For information on our measurements of COVID-19 testing, see our Measuring the economic output of COVID-19 testing, tracing and vaccinations methodology.

Consumer-facing services

Output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.2% in May 2023 after growth of 1.1% in April 2023, revised up from 1.0% in the previous publication. Looking at the broader picture, consumer-facing services grew by 0.2% in the three months to May 2023. Consumer facing services were 8.8% below their pre-coronavirus levels (February 2020) in May 2023, while all other services were 2.0% above, as shown in Figure 4.

The largest contribution to the fall in consumer-facing services in May 2023 came from food and beverage service activities, which fell by 1.1% in May after growth of 2.4% in April.

The next largest contribution came from buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, which fell 0.7% after a similar fall in April 2023.

Consumer-facing services were 8.8% below their pre-coronavirus levels (February 2020) in May 2023, with 10 of 13 industries lower than February 2020 (Figure 5). Within consumer-facing services, the largest contributors to this decline between February 2020 and May 2023 were buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rent and retail trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles which have seen output decrease by 14.4% and 8.7%, respectively. The largest positive contributor within consumer-facing services was food and beverage service activities, which has grown by 8.7% between February 2020 and May 2023.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: May 2023 bulletin.

Production output fell by 0.6% in May 2023, following a fall of 0.2% in April 2023, revised up from a fall of 0.3% in the previous publication. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply fell by 2.0% and was the largest contributor to the fall in production output in May 2023 Overall, production output grew 0.4% in the three months to May 2023, compared with the three months to February 2023, with growth of 0.8% in manufacturing being the largest positive contributor to growth in production output in that period.

Mining and quarrying was the only production sub-sector to see increased output in May 2023. It increased by 0.3%, attributed to growth of 0.6% in the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas.

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply was the largest negative contributor, falling 2.0% after growth of 0.7% in April (revised up from 0.6% in our previous publication) and growth of 2.6% in March (revised up from 1.1% in our previous publication).

Water supply and sewerage fell by 1.7% in May 2023, with falls of 2.6% in sewerage, 1.6% in waste collection, treatment, and disposal activities and 0.5% in water collection, treatment, and supply.

Manufacturing fell by 0.2% in May 2023 after a fall of 0.1% in April 2023, revised up from a fall of 0.3% in the previous publication.

Figure 7 shows that the manufacturing sector saw falls in 8 of its 13 subsectors. Manufacture of wood and paper products, and printing and other manufacturing and repair, were the largest negative contributors falling by 3.0% and 1.7% respectively.

Growth was seen in 5 of the 13 subsectors, with manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products being the largest positive contributor, growing by 4.8% in May 2023 after a fall of 4.4% in April.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: May 2023 bulletin.

We estimate monthly construction output to have decreased 0.2% in volume terms in May 2023; this is the third consecutive fall in the month-on-month series.

The decrease in monthly output came from a decrease in new work (0.4% fall), with repair and maintenance showing no growth (0.0%) on the month. Four out of the nine sectors saw a decrease on the month.

At the sector level, the main contributors to the monthly decrease were seen in non-housing repair and maintenance and private housing new work, which decreased 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively.

Anecdotal evidence received from our Monthly Business Survey for Construction and allied trades (MBS) continued to indicate a slow-down in private housing, referring to customers' economic worries. Despite this, some businesses across other sectors continued to report an easing in inflation.

Further detail on construction output growth rates, along with new orders in the construction industry and construction output prices, can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: May 2023 bulletin.

There were some common themes that were anecdotally reported (as part of the Monthly Business Survey for Production and Services) to have played a part in performance across different industries. However, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact.

A range of manufacturing industries and businesses within construction cited the additional bank holiday for the Coronation of King Charles III on Monday 8 May as a reason for reduced output. On the positive side, we had comments suggesting industries in the arts, entertainment and recreation sector benefitted from the extra bank holiday. There were also comments on both increased and reduced output received in the accommodation and food services sector.

There was also anecdotal evidence, reported on monthly business survey returns, to suggest that industrial action in May 2023 had an impact on different industries of varying degrees. The health sector (nurses), rail network, education sector and the civil service all saw industrial action take place in May 2023 and this should be considered when interpreting monthly movements in these industries. We also had some anecdotal evidence to suggest that the rail network industrial action had an adverse impact in terms of footfall for food and beverage service activities.

This release gives data for May 2023 for the first time, and April 2023 is also open for revision. Revisions to monthly data from January 2023 to March 2023 published in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: January to March 2023 bulletin on 30 June 2023 are also included.

The next monthly GDP release on 11 August 2023 will have April and May 2023 open for revision in line with our National Accounts Revision Policy.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Construction output in Great Britain: May 2023.

• Index of Production, UK: May 2023.

• Index of Services, UK: May 2023. 

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly gross domestic product (GDP). However, there are reasons as to why these would not provide the same estimate as to where the economy is relative to its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels. This primarily reflects that monthly estimates of GDP are based only on the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income, and expenditure).

The coronavirus pandemic has brought many measurement challenges that have created more uncertainty around our three approaches (see our Coronavirus and the effects on UK GDP article). This has led to an initial divergence between the output and average estimate, which is then reflected in how we compare monthly and quarterly estimates of GDP. Further information is available in our Measuring monthly and quarterly UK gross domestic product during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic article.

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Our GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

Additional bank holiday in May 2023 for the Coronation of King Charles III 

An additional bank holiday was announced for the coronation of King Charles III on Monday 8 May 2023. While adjustments are made for regular calendar effects, there was no explicit adjustment for this ad hoc event. However, the timing of the bank holiday indirectly affects the number of trading days, which could affect GDP estimates positively or negatively, depending on the sector.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. Therefore, this indicator should be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.

The latest comparisons of month on same month a year ago should be treated with caution given the impact of base effects (see our Beware Base Effects blog post) on growth rates because of the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic throughout 2020 and 2021. Such comparisons and growth rates can be found in our accompanying dataset.