GDP monthly estimate, UK: May 2024

• Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in May 2024 after showing no growth in April 2024 (unrevised from our last publication).

• Real gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 0.9% in the three months to May 2024 compared with the three months to February 2024, driven by a growth of 1.1% in services output.

• Services output grew by 0.3% in May 2024, following growth of 0.3% in April 2024 (revised up from 0.2% growth in our last publication), and was the largest contributor to monthly GDP growth in May 2024.

• Production output grew by 0.2% in May 2024 following an unrevised fall of 0.9% in April 2024, and showed no growth in the three months to May 2024.

• Construction output grew by 1.9% in May 2024, following a fall of 1.1% in April 2024 (revised up from a fall of 1.4% in our last publication), and fell by 0.7% in the three months to May 2024.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.9% in the three months to May 2024, compared with the three months to February 2024. This is the strongest three-monthly growth since January 2022. Services output was the main contributor, with a growth of 1.1% in this period, while production output showed no growth and construction fell by 0.7%.

Monthly real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in May 2024, after showing no growth in April 2024 (unrevised from our last publication).

This bulletin contains revisions to April 2024 data for the first time, and also takes on revisions from January 2024 to March 2024, consistent with our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: January to March 2024 bulletin published on 28 June 2024. It is important to note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

All three main sectors contributed positively to GDP growth in May 2024. Services output grew by 0.3% in May 2024 and was the largest contributor to the growth in GDP during the month. Production and construction output also increased by 0.2% and 1.9%, respectively.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.0% in the three months to May 2024 compared with the three months to May 2023 and estimated to have grown by 1.4% in May 2024 compared with the same month last year.

When considering growth to May 2023, it is worth noting that there was an additional bank holiday for the coronation of King Charles III on Monday 8 May 2023. There was no explicit adjustment for this ad hoc event, though adjustments are made for regular calendar effects. However, the timing of the bank holiday indirectly affects the number of trading days, which could affect GDP estimates positively or negatively, depending on the sector.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 1.1% in the three months to May 2024, compared with the three months to February 2024. This is the strongest three-monthly growth rate since December 2021. There was widespread growth, with output in 10 of the 14 sub-sectors rising over this period.

Professional, scientific and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, growing by 2.5% in the three months to May 2024. The next largest contribution came from administrative and support service activities, which grew by 3.2%, and from human health and social work activities where output rose by 1.7%.

On the month, services output is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in May 2024, following a rise of 0.3% in April 2024 (revised up from a growth of 0.2% in our last publication), with 8 of the 14 services subsectors showing growth in May 2024. This is the fifth consecutive monthly growth in services output. Figure 3 shows both the monthly and the three-month contributions from the services sector to GDP growth in May 2024.

The largest positive contribution at the sub-sector level in services in May 2024 came from the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles sub-sector, which rose by 1.8% during the month. This was driven by growth of 2.9% in the retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, after a fall of 1.8% in April 2024. Please see our Retail Sales, Great Britain: May 2024 bulletin for more information on this industry's monthly movements. There was also growth in the wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, of 1.4% in May 2024.

Professional, scientific and technical activities also contributed positively to the month, growing by 1.0% in May 2024 - its fourth consecutive monthly growth. The growth in May 2024 was mainly caused by a 3.5% rise in scientific research and development, and a 2.2% growth in architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis.

Accommodation and food service activities also saw growth on the month, up 2.4%. The subsector saw growth in both industries, with accommodation and food and beverage service activities growing by 4.6% and 1.5% respectively.

The largest negative contribution to services growth in May 2024 came from information and communication, down 1.4%, following growth of 2.8% in April 2024 (revised up from growth of 2.3% in our last publication). The subsector saw falls in 4 out of the 6 industries, with the largest contribution coming from a fall of 2.8% in computer programming, consultancy and related activities.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 42.9% of the services sector by industry weight. In May 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 86.6%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly GDP releases. For context, the average turnover response rate for the service sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 97.0% and 97.4%, respectively.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services grew by 0.5% in the three months to May 2024, compared with the three months to February 2024. The main drivers of the growth were a 0.9% rise in output in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, 3.6% growth in other personal services, and 1.7% growth in food and beverage service activities. The largest negative contributor was buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, which fell by 0.8% in the three months to May 2024.

Output in consumer-facing services grew by 0.8% in May 2024, following a fall of 0.6% in April 2024 (revised up from a fall of 0.7% in our last publication). The main drivers of the growth in May 2024 were a 2.9% growth in retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and a 4.6% growth in the accommodation industry. More information on retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, can be found in our Retail sales, Great Britain: May 2024 bulletin. The largest negative contribution came from buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, which fell by 1.4% in May 2024. More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services May 2024 dataset.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: May 2024 bulletin.

Production output is estimated to have showed no growth in the three months to May 2024 compared with the three months to February 2024. A 1.0% growth in electricity gas steam and air conditioning supply, 0.6% growth in mining and quarrying and a 1.5% growth in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities were offset by a 0.3% fall in manufacturing.

On the month, production output is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in May 2024, following an unrevised fall of 0.9% in April 2024. The largest contribution to the growth in May 2024 was a 0.4% growth in manufacturing. Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, and mining and quarrying also grew by 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively. These were partially offset by a fall of 1.9% in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

Electricity, gas steam and air conditioning supply output fell by 1.9% in May 2024, following growth of 0.5% in April 2024, with falls of 2.0% in electric power generation, transmission and distribution and 1.4% in the manufacture of gas; distribution of gaseous fuels through mains; steam and air conditioning supply.

Mining and quarrying output grew by 0.1% in May 2024, following a growth of 0.9% in April 2024. The growth in May 2024 was driven by a 3.8% monthly rise in other mining and quarrying.

Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output grew by 0.4% in May 2024, following growth of 2.0% in April 2024. Two of the four industries within the sub-sector grew in May 2024, with the largest contribution coming from growth of 3.6% in waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery. The growth was partially offset by falls of 2.6% in sewerage, and 0.4% in water collection, treatment and supply.

Manufacturing output grew by 0.4% in May 2024 and was the largest contributor to the growth in production output in the month, following a fall of 1.6% in April 2024. Output increased in 7 of the 13 sub-sectors in manufacturing in May 2024. The largest positive contributions in manufacturing came from the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco, which grew by 1.7% after a fall of 2.1% in April 2024, and growth of 1.6% in other manufacturing and repair. The largest negative contribution in manufacturing came from a fall of 0.7% in manufacture of transport equipment.

Figure 6 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing sub-sectors.

The turnover response rate for the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) element of the production sector was 86.5% in May 2024. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with the National Accounts revision policy. For context, the average turnover response rate for the production sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 96.9% and 97.5%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in monthly GDP can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: May 2024 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.7% in the three months to May 2024, compared with the three months to February 2024. New work decreased by 0.9% over the period, and repair and maintenance fell by 0.3%. Within new work, the largest contributor to the fall came from public housing new work, which decreased by 10.3%.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have grown by 1.9% in May 2024, which follows a fall of 1.1% in April 2024 (revised up from a fall of 1.4% in our last publication). The growth in monthly output in May 2024 came from increases in both new work (2.7%) and repair and maintenance (0.8%).

Eight out of the nine construction sectors saw growth in May 2024. The main contributors to the monthly increase were a 2.8% increase in new housing work, with both private and public new housing output increasing on the month, infrastructure new work which rose by 3.5% in May 2024 and non-housing repair and maintenance, which grew by 2.1%, on the month.

Evidence received from returns for the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) for Construction and Allied Trades noted warmer weather contributed to increased output in May. The Met Office confirmed in their Monthly Weather Report (PDF, 4.6MB) that May 2024 was the warmest May on record; the month started and ended with rain and storms, but the middle of the month saw more settled, warmer weather.

Construction data are sourced from our Monthly Business Survey (MBS). For May 2024, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 77.0%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.7% and 94.9%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: May 2024 bulletin.

There were some common themes that have played a part in performance across different industries, according to anecdotal reports collected as part of our monthly surveys. However, it is difficult to quantify their exact effect.

The hospitality sector saw growth in May 2024. Monthly growth was seen in accommodation - mainly coming from hotels, and to a lesser extent holiday and other short-stay accommodation - and food and beverage services activities, across all of "restaurants and takeaways", and "pubs and bars". This growth in the hospitality sector is further supported by strong increases in numerous industries in the manufacture of food products and beverages, most notably the manufacture of alcoholic beverages, and specifically beer.

Comments provided for May 2024 suggested that the construction, retail, and accommodation sectors were affected by unseasonal weather patterns across both April, which was wetter than normal, and May, which saw warm weather. UK overall rainfall in April 2024 was 155% of the long-term average, and May 2024 was the warmest on record since records began in 1884, according to the Met Office's Monthly Climate Summaries. See the Met Office's April 2024 Weather Report (PDF, 5.8MB) and its May 2024 Weather Report (PDF, 4.6MB).

This bulletin contains revisions to April 2024 data for the first time. It also takes on revisions from January 2024 to March 2024, consistent with our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: January to March 2024 bulletin.

It is important to note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative). Please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information. Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly GDP and main sectors for January 2024 to April 2024, since our last monthly publication on 12 June 2024.

The upwards revision to services in April 2024 is mainly because of late or updated Monthly Business Survey (MBS) data in the wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, and computer programming, consultancy and related activities industries.

The upwards revision to construction in April 2024 is mainly because of late and updated MBS data for both the new work, and repair and maintenance sub-sectors.

Details on the revisions to monthly GDP from January 2024 to March 2024 are provided in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: January to March 2024 bulletin.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. Growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and main sectors data. However, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in the following releases:

• Index of Services, UK: May 2024

• Index of Production, UK: May 2024

• Construction output in Great Britain: May 2024

The main data source for these statistics is the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found below:

• Index of Services response rates

• Index of Production response rates

• Construction response rates

The Monthly GDP data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. However, there are reasons why these would not provide the same estimate of where the economy is, relative to its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels. This is mainly because the monthly estimate of GDP is based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry in monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release, because they account for both outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences, given the use of the Annual Business Survey in their compilation.

Consumer-facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer-facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

Blue Book 2024 publication update

The UK National Accounts, The Blue Book 2024 scheduled for 31 July 2024 has now been moved to the more usual timetable of 31 October 2024 to allow us further time to update the base year from 2019 to 2022 and assure the quality of these granular data. The UK Balance of Payments, The Pink Book: 2024 has also been moved.

This means that Blue Book 2024 consistent data will be included for the first time in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin, published on 30 September 2024. Additionally, a new publication that focuses on Blue Book aggregates up to the end of 2022 will be published at 7am on 7 August 2024, this will give top-level GDP for years and quarters up to 2022 including expenditure and income components. The dataset will be re-referenced and re-based to 2022 equals 100.

These revisions will be included in our GDP monthly estimate, UK: August 2024 bulletin publication on 11 October 2024.

The revision period for the June 2024 quarterly National Accounts will now be for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 only, in line with our standard National Accounts revisions policy.

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our Gross domestic product (GDP) Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful for highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.