GDP monthly estimate, UK: September 2024

• Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to September 2024 compared with the three months to June 2024, mainly because of growth in retail trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, and new construction work.

• Monthly real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in September 2024, largely because of declines in manufacturing output and information and communication services, after unrevised growth of 0.2% in August 2024.

• Monthly services output showed no growth in September 2024, following an unrevised increase of 0.1% in August 2024, and grew by 0.1% in the three months to September 2024.

• Production output fell by 0.5% in September 2024, mainly because of a fall in manufacturing output, following an unrevised growth of 0.5% in August 2024; it fell by 0.2% in the three months to September 2024.

• Construction output grew by 0.1% in September 2024, following a revised growth of 0.6% in August 2024 (this figure was 0.4% growth in our last bulletin); it grew by 0.8% in the three months to September 2024.

Monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in September 2024, following unrevised growth of 0.2% in August 2024 and an unrevised estimate of no growth in July 2024.

Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to September 2024 compared with the three months to June 2024. Services output was the main contributor to the growth in the three months to September, rising by 0.1%. There was also a 0.8% increase in construction output, while production output fell by 0.2% over this period.

On a quarterly basis, this gives growth of 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024, following growth of 0.5% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024 and 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024. Please see our GDP first quarterly estimate, UK July to September 2024 for more details.

July and August 2024 are open for revision in this release in accordance with the National Accounts Revisions Policy. It is important to note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive and negative), please see our Why GDP figures are revised article for more information.

Production output decreased by 0.5% in September 2024, and was the main contributor to the fall in GDP during this month, while construction sector output rose by 0.1% and services output showed no growth.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.0% in the three months to September 2024 compared with the three months to September 2023, and by 1.0% in September 2024 compared with the same month last year.

Overall, the services sector is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in the three months to September 2024 compared with the three months to June 2024. There was a rise in output in 8 of the 14 subsectors in this period.

Professional, scientific, and technical activities was the largest positive contributor to the rise in services output in this three-month period, growing by 0.7% in the three months to September 2024. The next largest contributor came from wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles output, which increased by 0.6%. The largest negative contribution during the three months to September 2024 was financial and insurance activities which fell by 0.3%.

On the month, services output is estimated to have shown no growth in September 2024. Of the 14 subsectors, there were positive contributions from 7, negative contributions from 5, and no contribution from 2 subsectors during the month (Figure 3).

The largest positive contribution in the services sector in September 2024 came from the professional, scientific, and technical activities subsector, where output rose by 0.5% in the month, following a growth of 1.8% in August 2024. Five out of the eight industries in this section experienced growth in September 2024. The growth was driven mainly by an increase of 3.2% in the scientific research and development industry.

The next largest positive contribution at the subsector level in September 2024 was a 0.3% growth in wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles. This was driven by wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which grew by 3.2%. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported on their website that September 2024 had seen the highest number of new registrations since 2020.

The largest negative contribution in September 2024 came from information and communication, which fell by 2.0%, falling back after growth earlier in the year but remaining 1.2% above its level a year ago. September’s contraction was because of falls in five out of its six subsectors, with the largest contribution coming from a 2.6% fall in computer programming, consultancy, and related activities. There were also falls of 3.6% in publishing activities and 1.1% in telecommunications. This offset the growth of 1.8% experienced in programming and broadcasting activities. 

Other subsectors in September 2024 that contributed negatively to the services sector include falls of 0.8% in the other service activities subsector, 0.5% in arts, entertainment and recreation, 0.1% in financial and insurance activities and 0.2% in transportation and storage.

An overview of data sources used in our estimates of service output can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue. The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 43.6% of the services sector by industry weight. In September 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the services sector was 85.3%. We would expect this to increase over time, as more responses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates for the services sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 97.0% and 97.5%, respectively.

Consumer-facing services

Consumer-facing services output rose by 0.5% in the three months to September 2024. The largest positive contribution in this period came from a growth of 1.9% in the retail trade, except for motor vehicles and motorcycles industry. See our Retail Sales, Great Britain: September 2024 bulletin for more information on this industry. The largest negative contribution was a 3.1% fall in the other personal service activities industry, in the same period.

Output in consumer-facing services increased by 0.4% in September 2024, following growth of 0.3% in August 2024. Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles was the largest contributor at the industry level, with output rising here by 3.2%. This was followed by food and beverage service activities where output increased by 1.3%. There was a fall of 1.6% in the other personal service activities sector in September 2024 which was the largest negative contributor to consumer-facing services in the month; this follows a growth of 4.1% in August 2024. More information on consumer-facing services data is available in our Consumer-facing services September 2024 dataset.

More detailed breakdowns on services are available in our Index of Services, UK: September 2024 bulletin.

In the three months to September 2024, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.2%, when compared with the three months to June 2024. Growth in manufacturing (up 0.2%) was offset by falls in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 2.7%), and in water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (down 0.9%). Mining and quarrying showed no growth (0.0%).

On the month, production output is estimated to have fallen by 0.5% in September 2024, following growth of 0.5% in August 2024. Three of the four production sectors saw falls in September 2024, with the largest contribution to the fall being a 1.0% fall in manufacturing. There were also negative contributions from water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (down 0.7%), and from electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (down 1.9%). These were partially offset by growth of 3.7% in mining and quarrying.

Output from the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sector fell by 1.9% in September 2024, following growth of 0.9% in August 2024. The fall in September 2024 was driven by a decrease of 10.1% in the manufacture of gas, distribution of gaseous fuels through mains, and steam and air conditioning supply. This was partially offset by growth of 0.2% in electric power generation, transmission and distribution.

Water supply; and sewerage, waste management and remediation activities output fell by 0.7% in September 2024, following a growth of 1.1% in August 2024. Output in all four industries within the subsector fell in September 2024, with falls of 1.2% in sewerage; 0.5% in water collection, treatment and supply; 0.5% in waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; and 0.9% in remediation activities and other waste management services.

Mining and quarrying output grew by 3.7% in September 2024, following a fall of 5.3% in August 2024. The growth in September 2024 was driven by a 4.3% growth in extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas.

Manufacturing output fell by 1.0% in September and was the largest contributor to the fall in production output in the month, following a rise of 1.3% in August 2024 (revised up from 1.1% growth in our previous bulletin). Manufacturing output decreased in 8 of the 13 subsectors in September 2024. The biggest decreases were in the manufacture of basic metals and metal products (down 2.7%), manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (down 2.5%) and manufacture of transport equipment (down 1.4%). The largest positive contribution in September 2024 came from the manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c (up 1.3%). The manufacture of rubber and plastics products, and other non-metallic mineral products industry also contributed positively on the month, with a rise in output of 1.1% in September 2024.

Figure 6 shows both the monthly and three-month contributions to manufacturing output from each of the manufacturing sub-sectors.

The Monthly Business Survey (MBS) is used for 72.9% of the production sector by industry weight. In September 2024, the turnover response rate for the MBS element of the production sector was 81.4%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses from businesses are received and any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases, in line with the National Accounts revisions policy. For context, the average turnover response rates for the production sector in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 96.9% and 97.7%, respectively. A full set of data sources used in our monthly GDP estimates can be found in our GDP(o) data sources catalogue.

More detailed breakdowns on production are available in our Index of Production, UK: September 2024 bulletin.

Construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in the three months to September 2024, compared with the three months to June 2024. New work increased by 2.0% over the period, whereas repair and maintenance decreased by 0.6%. Within new work, the largest contribution to the increase came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 2.8%. In repair and maintenance, the largest negative contribution came from private housing repair and maintenance which fell by 5.8%.

Monthly construction output is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in September 2024, which follows an increase of 0.6% in August 2024 (revised up from 0.4% growth in our previous publication). The growth in monthly output in September 2024 came solely from an increase in repair and maintenance (up 0.4%), as new work fell by 0.2%.

Four out of the nine sectors saw increases in September 2024. At the sector level, the main contributor to the monthly increase was private housing repair and maintenance, which increased by 1.3%.

Construction data are sourced from the Monthly Business Survey (MBS). For September 2024, the survey turnover response rate for construction was 72.2%. We would expect this to increase over time as more responses are received. Any new data will be included in future monthly gross domestic product (GDP) releases. For context, the average turnover response rates in 2022 and 2023 now stand at 94.7% and 95.2%, respectively.

Further detail on construction output growth rates can be found in our Construction output in Great Britain: September 2024 bulletin.

There was widespread strength in the production of many of the products used in the construction process in the three months to September 2024. The manufacture of cement, plaster, concrete, wood, rubber, plastic, glass, paint and other mining and quarrying materials all saw increases in this period. This supports the strength seen in new work in the construction sector in the three months to September 2024, compared with the three months to June 2024.

This release gives data for September 2024 for the first time. July and August 2024 are open for revision in line with the National Accounts Revisions policy. Table 1 shows the revisions to monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and its main sectors from both July 2024 and August 2024.

The revision to construction data in August 2024 is because of late and updated Monthly Business Survey (MBS) returns.

Although there is no revision to services or production growth rates, there are some offsetting revisions at the more detailed industry level. These are because of the inclusion of higher-quality, quarterly data sources, which replace previous estimates, and late or updated monthly source data.

The level of accuracy of growth rates in these statistics is one decimal place. While growth rates can be calculated to more than one decimal place using our monthly gross domestic product (GDP) and main sectors data, where a series is estimated to have shown no growth over a period, looking at further decimal places to gauge a direction is not recommended, because of increasing levels of uncertainty.

Further information on measuring the data across our main data sources is available in:

• our Index of Services, UK: September 2024 bulletin

• our Index of Production, UK: September 2024 bulletin

• our Construction output in Great Britain: September 2024 bulletin

The main data source for these statistics is the monthly business survey (MBS) and response rates for each can be found in:

• our Index of Services response rates

• our Index of Production response rates

• our Construction response rates

Our GDP(o) data sources catalogue provides a full breakdown of the data used in this publication.

In the UK, we produce estimates of monthly and quarterly GDP. Monthly estimate of GDP are based on only the output measure of GDP, while quarterly estimates of GDP reflect the average of the three approaches (output, income and expenditure).

Estimates for the construction industry within monthly GDP will differ to those published in the construction output release, as they account for both the outputs produced and inputs consumed by the industry. There are also some coverage differences given the use of the Annual Business Survey (ABS) in their compilation.

Non-market education output methodology

School attendance data is used as our source to estimate education output by the non-market sector. Education is considered to be provided across the whole year. For this reason, school holidays, or school leavers, do not reduce output over the summer. As attendance levels are not available over the summer, the June 2024 value had been carried forward. Now that data are available for September 2024, the July and August 2024 estimates have been recalculated based on the change in attendance between June and September.

Consumer facing services industry classification

The industry breakdown used for consumer-facing services is based on the UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).

The following list contains the full SIC names of industries included in consumer facing services:

• Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Retail trade, except for motor vehicles and motorcycles

• Rail transport

• Accommodation

• Food and beverage service activities

• Buying and selling, renting and operating of own or leased real estate, excluding imputed rental

• Veterinary activities

• Travel agency, tour operator and other reservation service and related activities

• Gambling and betting services

• Sports activities and amusement and recreation activities

• Activities of membership organisations

• Other personal service activities

• Activities of households as employers of domestic personnel

The relationship between intermediate consumption ratios and gross value added by industry

For most industries, our early estimates of gross value added (GVA) use real growth in turnover or volume of output as a proxy for GVA growth. The main assumption this proxy approach makes is that the relationship between output and intermediate consumption remains the same past the last fully balanced year (currently 2022). Therefore, the extent to which this proves not to be the case is one cause of revision between our early estimates of GVA and the fully balanced annual estimates. This relationship can be represented by the intermediate consumption ratio or IC ratio. This is the intermediate consumption of an industry divided by its output.

Consider GVA estimates for 2022 as an example. When the 2023 annual national accounts were published, the last balanced year was 2021. Since then, 2022 GVA estimates were based on the 2021 IC ratio. As part of the 2024 annual national accounts round, we observe the 2022 IC ratio for the first time. We effectively replace a forecast of the 2022 IC ratio (using 2021) with the observed 2022 IC ratio. 

If the observed IC ratio of an industry is higher, it requires more product inputs to create the same amount of output, and hence GVA (other things equal) will be lower. We therefore expect an increase in the IC ratio of an industry to be associated with a downward revision in GVA growth. Similarly, a lower IC ratio in the most recent year would be associated with an increase in the GVA growth rate. 

The IC ratio is not the only influence on GVA. If both output and intermediate consumption increase such that the IC ratio is preserved, then GVA increases without the IC ratio changing at all. For this reason, the strength of the association between the IC ratio change and the GVA revision gives an indication of how important this factor was in determining the GVA growth rate revision. 

Further analysis of the relationship between the IC ratio and GVA revision by industry can be found in our Gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in March 2015. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled “accredited official statistics”.

Quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our GDP QMI.

Monthly growth rates can be volatile. This indicator should therefore be used with caution and alongside other measures, such as the three-month growth rate, when looking for an indicator of the medium-term trend of the economy. However, it is useful in highlighting one-off changes that can be masked by three-month growth rates.