GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2022

• UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022, downwardly revised from a first estimate fall of 0.2%.

• In output terms, the services sector grew by 0.1% while the production sector fell by 2.5% in Quarter 3 2022 (including falls in all 13 manufacturing sub-sectors) as well as a fall in the construction sector of 0.2%.

• The level of real GDP in Quarter 3 2022 is now estimated to be 0.8% below where it was pre-coronavirus at Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019, downwardly revised from the previous estimate of 0.4% below.

• The implied GDP deflator rose by an upwardly revised 6.4% in the year to Quarter 3 2022, primarily driven by an 9.2% increase in the implied price of household consumption.

• The household saving ratio increased strongly to 9.0% in Quarter 3 2022, from 6.7% in the previous quarter.

• Real households' disposable income (RHDI) fell by 0.5% this quarter; this is the fourth consecutive quarter of negative growth in the RHDI.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by a revised 0.3% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022. There have been downward revisions to previous estimates of the change in real GDP since Quarter 3 2021. Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). For more information please refer to our Communicating the UK economic cycle methodology.

Annual real UK GDP is now estimated to have increased by 7.6% from 2020 to 2021, revised from the previous estimate of 7.5%. Despite an upward revision to annual growth in 2021, downward revisions across the quarters of 2022 mean that real GDP is now estimated to be 0.8% below its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic level, revised from the previous estimate of being 0.4% below (Figure 1).

Estimates for Quarter 3 2022 have been affected by the additional bank holiday in September 2022 to mark the State Funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, where some businesses were either closed or operated differently on this day. A new indicative monthly real GDP path consistent with the latest quarterly estimates can be found in the associated dataset.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by a revised 1.6% in Quarter 3 2022, while it is now 8.4% higher than the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator rose by a revised 1.9% in Quarter 3 2022 compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022, which was primarily driven by higher price pressures for household consumption. There were also increases in the implied price of gross fixed capital formation and exports. This was partly offset by a 5.4% increase in import-implied prices in part reflecting the higher price for fuels. Imports get subtracted from GDP so a strong price rise in fuel imports acts to reduce the GDP implied deflator increase.

The implied GDP deflator represents the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that comprise GDP. It is important to note that the GDP deflator covers the whole of the economy, not just consumer spending.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, there was a 6.4% increase in the implied GDP deflator, revised from a first estimate of 5.8%. This has been driven by strong rises for the implied price of household consumption (9.2%), gross capital formation (14.7%) and exports (14.9%). There have also been large implied price movements in imports (22.5%) (Figure 2). This fall in the terms-of-trade reduces the increase in the implied price of GDP, as imports are not produced domestically.

In Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022, output is now estimated to have fallen by 0.3%. This was revised from a first estimate fall of 0.2%, mainly reflecting revisions to estimates of production and construction output.

All three sectors have seen a declining trend in quarterly output since the start of 2022. The latest estimates of the level of output for the construction, production and services sub-sectors relative to their Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 levels are shown in Figure 3. The larger revisions have been mainly in the production industries, for further information, please refer to the “Production” subheading in this section. The revision to services reflects incorporation of Value Added Tax (VAT) data for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022 and updated survey responses.

Services

Services output grew by 0.1% in Quarter 3 2022, revised up from a first estimate of flat output. Compared with pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels, services output is now 1.3% below its Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 levels, revised down from previously 0.9% below. The latest quarterly contribution to growth estimates for 2022 are shown in Figure 4, with services output showing a slowdown since the start of the year.

The latest quarterly services output increase was driven by growth in education (1.6%), professional, scientific and technical activities (0.6%) and public administration and defence (0.8%). There were offsetting falls driven by wholesale and retail trade (negative 0.9%), other services activities (negative 2.2%) and arts, entertainment and recreation (negative 1.7%). Falls in these services sub-sectors likely reflects pressures from cost of living rises caused by energy price rises affecting household disposable incomes, as well as the additional bank holiday in September 2022. Overall, consumer-facing services saw a fall of 0.8% in Quarter 3 2022, a slowing from the 1.5% increase in the previous quarter.

Production

Production output fell by 2.5% in Quarter 3 2022, revised from a first estimate fall of 1.5%. Production output has now contracted for five consecutive quarters since Quarter 3 2021.

There have been broad-based downward revisions to production industries output across quarters since the start of 2021, particularly in the energy sub-sector, shown in Figure 3. Production output is now 1.2% above its pre-coronavirus levels, revised down from 3.6% above.

Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply is now 2.7% below its pre-coronavirus levels, revised from being 6.3% above its pre-coronavirus levels. These downward revisions to energy are driven by revised data for the volume of energy supplied, which might reflect a bigger impact of rising prices on energy consumption in Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 2022.

Manufacturing output in Quarter 3 2022 is 1.3% above its pre-coronavirus levels, with water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities being 13.2% above and mining and quarrying being 8.7% below.

The fall in production output in the latest quarter was driven by declines in all the main production sectors (Figure 5). There was a fall in manufacturing output of 2.8%; electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (negative 2.1%), water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities (negative 2.1%) and mining and quarrying (negative 1.3%).

All 13 manufacturing sub-sectors reported a fall in output in the latest quarter with the largest declines reported by manufacture of transport equipment, manufacture of basic metals and manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco. As reported in our GDP monthly estimate, UK: August 2022 bulletin, there were mixed comments from manufacturers with some firms suggesting shortages of supplies, while others reported these challenges were easing.

The declines in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply in the latest quarter continue the falling trend from the previous quarter. This mostly reflects falls in energy volumes, as shown in the Energy trends bulletin, which might reflect changes in business and consumer behaviour in response to higher energy prices.

Construction

There has been a 0.2% decline in the latest estimates of construction output, having previously been estimated to have increased by 0.6%. Construction output is now 3.3% above its pre-coronavirus level, having previously been estimated as being 3.8% above.

Six of the nine sectors saw a fall in Quarter 3 2022 with non-housing repair and maintenance, and infrastructure the main contributors, as these decreased by 2.2% and 2.5% respectively. There is anecdotal evidence to suggest continued price pressures from construction inputs and products, labour market shortages and challenges to recruiting new staff are hindering construction output despite healthy order books.

Expenditure fell by 0.3% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022, driven by falls in household consumption. There were also large movements in international trade flows in the third quarter, including that of non-monetary gold, which is particularly volatile. Also, there were large price movements in internationally traded goods and services in Quarter 3 2022, particularly for imports.

The previous and latest estimates of the level of real spending relative to pre-coronavirus levels are shown in Figure 6. The impact of revisions on real gross domestic expenditure over this period have been minimal, although there have been upward revisions to real spending on exports and imports. For more information, please refer to the trade section of this bulletin.

Household consumption

Real household expenditure fell by a revised 1.1% in Quarter 3 2022, which was driven by declines in net tourism, transport, household goods and services, and food and drink. There has been a slowing in real consumption expenditure over the last year, shown in Figure 7, including restaurants and hotels, and recreation and culture, which reflects the cost of living squeeze on households' disposable income.

There have been some revisions to the quarterly path in 2022, mainly reflecting revised tourism expenditure. These revisions primarily impact on the national concept of household expenditure (which includes spending by UK residents abroad and excludes foreign nationals' spending in the UK).  For fuller details, these concepts are explained in our Guide to Consumer trends publication (Definitions and conventions for UK household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE)). These net tourism revisions have also been reflected in spending on net trade, therefore there is minimal impact on gross domestic product (GDP).

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government expenditure increased by 0.5% in Quarter 3 2022, revised down from the first estimate of 1.3%. The quarterly increase was driven by higher central government spending, particularly on public administration, and defence and education, offset by falls to spending in local government.

The revisions to real government expenditure in the latest quarter reflect downward revisions to spending on public administration and defence, and central government spending.

Spending on health was revised upwards to 0.2% (previously flat) in Quarter 3 2022 with increases in non-coronavirus (COVID-19) health activity. There was a decline in Quarter 3 2022 compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022 in coronavirus activities (including testing and vaccinations), despite the implementation of the autumn booster vaccine campaign.

Nominal government expenditure increased by 2.9% in Quarter 3 2022, which was driven by increases in expenditure on military defence, health and central government.

Gross capital formation

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased by 1.1% in Quarter 3 2022, revised down from a first estimate increase of 2.5%. The latest quarterly rise was mainly driven by a boost in government investment of 17.3%, although business investment is now estimated to have fallen by 2.5% in Quarter 3 2022. Business investment saw notable revisions to estimates across quarters because of updated survey data, shown in Figure 8. Business investment remains 8.1% below its pre-coronavirus pandemic level.

There have been revisions to current price and volume estimates of GFCF, which has an impact on its implied price over the last year in particular. Its implied price increased by 2.1% in Quarter 3 2022, an upward revision from the first estimate of 0.8%. These revisions are because of updated survey and deflator data in particular for manufacturing products, as well as seasonal adjustment changes. The GFCF implied price rose by 7.4% relative to the same quarter a year ago.

Excluding the alignment adjustment, estimates show that inventories fell by £5.2 billion in Quarter 3 2022. The fall in inventories was driven by reductions particularly for retail and manufacturing industries.

Anecdotal evidence shows that the retail sector showed reductions in stock following increased stockpiling earlier in the year relating to supply chain uncertainties. For manufacturing industries, these were affected by lack of availability in raw materials.

Net trade

Our trade in goods estimates are primarily based on data collected by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). A recent HMRC data collection change affected our EU to Great Britain import and export statistics. Our article explaining the impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: 2020 to 2022 provides more detail on the discontinuity between the two compilation methods.

As part of this release, our estimates of goods imports from the EU for the period January to December 2021 have been updated to address the difference in the timing of the data collection change for imports compared with exports. These revised estimates will also be published in UK trade: November 2022 on 13 January 2023, at which point we intend to publish a short article summarising changes to the estimates.

Our trade estimates have also seen revisions because of incorporating HMRC data updates to trade in goods imports, primarily in 2022, updated annual International Trade in Services Survey data for 2021 and updated data in travel services.

The UK's trade deficit for goods and services was 1.7% of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in Quarter 3 2022, revised upwards from a first estimate deficit of 2.0%. However, there have been large movements in non-monetary gold over the last quarter, which can be volatile. Excluding non-monetary gold, the trade deficit was 3.8% of nominal GDP in Quarter 3 2022 (Figure 9).

Export volumes increased by a revised 8.9% in the latest quarter, driven by a 16.8% rise in exports of goods volumes. The increase in goods exports was driven by rises in unspecified goods largely because of non-monetary gold. There were also increases in the exports of machinery and transport equipment, and fuels.

Import volumes fell by a revised 3.6% in the latest quarter, driven by falls in chemicals, material manufactures, miscellaneous manufactures, and unspecified goods. There has been a further fall in the UK terms of trade in the year to Quarter 3 2022, as import prices have increased by more than export prices, primarily reflecting the effects of the UK being a net energy importer.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.6% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022, revised from the previous estimate of 1.0%. Nominal GDP is now 10.2% above its pre coronavirus (COVID-19) Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 levels.

The latest quarterly rise in nominal GDP was driven by an increase in compensation of employees as well as positive contributions from taxes less subsidies and other income (Figure 10). Compensation of employees rose by 1.5% in Quarter 3 2022, driven by a rise in wages and salaries of 1.7%.

Taxes less subsidies increased by 1.1% in Quarter 3 2022. The rise in taxes was driven by an increase in Value Added Tax (VAT), tobacco and Air Passenger Duty. This was partially offset by a fall in Fuel Duty. Elsewhere, there was a rise in other income, driven by an increase in other gross operating surplus (GOS) offset by a fall in mixed income.

The GOS of corporations was revised upwards to growth of 1.6% in Quarter 3 2022. Excluding the alignment adjustment, GOS of corporations increased by 1.2% in the latest quarter. The rise in GOS reflects growth for all corporation types in the latest quarter and was driven by increases in financial corporations (3.7%), private non-financial corporations (0.9%) and public corporations (8.0%).

In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, the dataset is open to revision back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2021 as part of this bulletin. The revised estimates of average real gross domestic product (GDP) compared with the first estimate are shown in Figure 11.

The revisions to quarter-on-quarter growth for the components of GDP are shown in Table 4. This release includes the processing and GDP balancing of a number of annual benchmark data for 2021, including the annual International Trade in Services Survey.

We have also incorporated Value Added Tax (VAT) turnover data up to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022 to estimate the output of small businesses for some industries in the output approach to GDP. VAT turnover has only been used to estimate growth rates, with the overall level of output still derived from the Annual Business Survey and other annual benchmark sources.

In addition to the annual benchmarks and integration of VAT turnover, there are also revisions in this release because of the replacement of forecasts with actual survey or external source data and new seasonal adjustment factors.

Households' saving ratio (seasonally adjusted) 

The households' saving ratio increased strongly to 9.0% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022, from 6.7% in the previous quarter (Figure 12). Without the adjustment for the change in pension entitlements, the saving ratio would not have increased as much in the latest quarter, with non-pension saving increasing less to 1.8% in the latest quarter from 1.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022.

Driving the 9.0% headline households' saving ratio, investment income payable on pension entitlements reached the highest level on record at £30.5 billion, increasing by £7.6 billion compared with the previous quarter. Included in the headline saving ratio, the adjustment for the change in pension entitlements is a form of deferred income and cannot be accessed until retirement, meaning that this ratio may occasionally not reflect the current incomes and saving of households. As such, this income from pension funds tends to be a less visible form of household income.

The growth in the adjustment for the change in pension entitlements was primarily because of a combination of economic factors in Quarter 3 2022, which caused gilt yields to continue to rise sharply as UK gilt prices fell. Rising gilt yields can impact upon pension actuarial modelling assumptions as they are used as part of the calculation of the amount of pension investment income attributable to private, defined benefit pension schemes during the quarter. For further methodology on estimation of pensions in the national accounts, see the Impact on household contribution supplements and saving section.

The small increase in non-pension saving reflects social benefits other than social transfers in kind growing by a record amount of £5.7 billion on the quarter as government cost of living and winter fuel payments increased. Additionally, wages and salaries showed a £4.5 billion increase on Quarter 2 2022, as private sector earnings and employee numbers grew. 

Household final consumption expenditure, deducted from households' total income to create households' saving, rose by 1.2% compared with Quarter 2 2022. This is the weakest nominal quarterly growth in consumer spending since the third national lockdown-affected Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2021, when expenditure fell by 2.6%.

The main contributor to the weakness in spending this quarter was expenditure abroad by UK residents. This fell by £2.9 billion compared with the previous quarter. In contrast, households' final consumption expenditure grew on consumption-related financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM), gas and electricity, and imputed rental. However, after the deduction of inflation, household spending fell by 1.1% in Quarter 3 2022. This is the first time we have seen a fall in real terms in consumer expenditure since Quarter 1 2021.​

Real households' disposable income (seasonally adjusted)

Real households' disposable income (RHDI) fell by 0.5% this quarter. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of negative growth in RHDI. Within RHDI, nominal gross disposable income rose 1.8%. With the adjustment for the change in pension entitlements not affecting the calculation of disposable income, growth in social benefits other than social transfers in kind, and wages and salaries drove nominal income growth this quarter.

However, the household expenditure implied deflator grew by 2.4%, therefore outpacing nominal income growth. This is weaker inflation growth than seen in the previous quarter as price growth on spending at restaurants and cafes as well as on UK tourist expenditure overseas eased slightly. Driving the quarterly growth in the household deflator are increases in FISIM, housing costs (such as gas and electricity), transport, miscellaneous goods and services, and food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Non-financial account net lending and borrowing (seasonally adjusted)

The UK's borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) decreased to 3.2% in Quarter 3 2022 from 5.8% in Quarter 2 2022. This is driven by both trade in goods and services. Within goods we saw a large export of non-monetary gold of £13.0 billion and a record surplus in trade in services, which increased by £5.5 billion on the quarter. 

Within the UK, households saw an increase in their net lending position to 2.1% as a percentage of GDP from 0.8% as a percentage of GDP in Quarter 2 2022. This was driven by increased property income receipts of £10.6 billion, net social benefit other than social transfers in kind increasing by a record £5.7 billion and a rise in wages and salaries of £4.5 billion predominately in the private sector. Pension savings increased as described in the saving ratio section.

General government saw a small improvement in its net borrowing to 4.2% as a percentage of GDP in Quarter 3 2022 from borrowing of 4.4% as a percentage of GDP in Quarter 2. Central government saw taxes on income rise by £3.7 billion and a reduction in current transfers paid out of £3.3 billion. Social benefits other than social transfers in kind increased by £5.9 billion driven by cost of living payments, a record quarterly movement in this data series.

Non-financial corporations saw an increase in their net borrowing to 1.3% as a percentage of GDP in Quarter 3 2022 from 0.7% as a percentage of GDP in Quarter 2. Private non-financial corporations' borrowing position grew by £4.2 billion driven by a fall in net property income, which itself was driven by falls in income from foreign direct investment and dividends received. Changes in inventories dropped by £6.9 billion this quarter from a large value in Quarter 2 2022. The fall in inventories was particularly seen in the retail and manufacturing industries.

Financial account net lending and borrowing (not seasonally adjusted)

Households decreased their net lending in the financial account to £21.6 billion in Quarter 3 2022 from £23.4 billion in Quarter 2 2022. This reflects increased liability growth of £11.2 billion in long-term loans offset by increases in pension entitlements of £7.7 billion. See discussion on pension entitlements in the saving ratio section.

General government decreased their net borrowing in Quarter 3 2022 to £29.9 billion from borrowing of £44.5 billion in the previous quarter. Within general government, central government decreased their net borrowing to £27.4 billion in Quarter 3 2022 from £47.5 billion in the previous quarter because of a decrease in gilt liabilities of £67.5 billion, partially offset by decreased net other deposits of £26.1 billion.

Non-financial corporations switched to net lending of £0.7 billion in Quarter 3 2022 from borrowing of £2.3 billion in the previous quarter. In the sub-sectors, private non-financial corporations decreased their borrowing to £0.4 billion in Quarter 3 2022 from borrowing of £2.7 billion in the previous quarter. This was primarily driven by decreased net loans of £7.3 billion. Public corporations increased their net lending to £1.2 billion from lending of £0.4 billion in the previous quarter via their deposits with UK monetary financial institutions.

Financial corporations switched to net lending in Quarter 3 2022 of £11.7 billion from net borrowing of £0.3 billion in Quarter 2 2022. This was driven by an increase in net deposits of £89.6 billion offset by a decrease in net loans of £73.5 billion.

Contribution to growth

Contribution to growth indicates how many percentage points a sector or industry is adding or removing from a given growth rate, usually headline gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Chained volume measure

Data in chained volume measures (CVM) within this bulletin have had the effect of price changes removed (in other words, the data are deflated), except for income data, which are only available in current prices.

Gross domestic product (GDP)

A measure of the economic activity produced by a country or region. GDP growth is the main indicator of economic performance. There are three approaches used to measure GDP:

• the output approach
• the expenditure approach
• the income approach

Index numbers

Data relative to a given base value, which typically refers to a particular year or quarter.

For further definitions, please see the Glossary of economic terms.

Reaching the GDP balance

The different data content and quality of the three approaches -- the output approach, the expenditure approach and the income approach -- dictate the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. In the UK, there are more data available on output in the short term than in either of the other two approaches. However, to obtain the best estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) (the published figure), the estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead because of the larger data content.

Because of quarterly GDP being a balanced measure of the three approaches and the output approach focusing solely on growth in gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP, there is a difference in data (in both levels and growths terms) between the quarterly publications (average GDP) and the GDP monthly estimate (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables, which enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use for Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP is available.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of the GDP quarterly national accounts datasets, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed as explained in our recent article, Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP.

In this quarter, the alignment adjustment, used to align expenditure to average GDP, is larger than normal (Table 2). This approach preserves the component-level movements and shows the level of challenge and uncertainty currently within the expenditure approach to GDP. Work will continue with a focus on the expenditure approach to GDP, and we will continue to review this over the coming months as and when more information becomes available.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, balancing adjustments are applied to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in a given quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. The balancing adjustments applied in this estimate are shown in Table 6. The resulting series should be considered accordingly.

GDP monthly estimate

Although this release focuses on providing the best quarterly estimate of GDP, an indicative monthly path for the updated time series is provided in the dataset. A full breakdown of the monthly data consistent with this quarterly release will be available in the next monthly GDP release (on 13 January 2023).

The UK National Accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring gross domestic product (GDP) can be found in the Guide to the UK National Accounts and more quality and methodology information (QMI) is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series and these include:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

• early estimates are based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of "errors" in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical "error".

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions; the "Accuracy and reliability" section in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations. 

GDP estimates for 2021 are subject to more uncertainty than usual as a result of the challenges we faced estimating GDP in the current conditions. Differences in the methods for estimating the output of health and education services across different countries mean GDP may be less internationally comparable during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and recovery than usual, so comparisons should be made with increased caution. For more information, please refer to our recently published blog, Why has UK GDP fallen so sharply in the pandemic?