GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2024

• UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024, revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.1%.

• The quarterly path of real GDP at an aggregate level is unchanged from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 to Quarter 1 2024, however, there have been downward revisions of 0.1 percentage points in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) and Quarter 3 2024.

• Within the output approach to measuring GDP, there was no growth in the services sector in the latest quarter, whilst a 0.7% increase in construction was offset by a 0.4% fall in production.

• Early estimates show that real GDP per head fell by 0.2% in Quarter 3 2024, and is 0.2% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago. 

• Early estimates of real households’ disposable income per head show no growth in Quarter 3 2024, following growth of 1.4% in the previous quarter. 

• The household saving ratio is estimated at 10.1% in the latest quarter, down from 10.3% in Quarter 2 2024.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have shown no growth in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024, revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.1% (Figure 1). Compared with the same quarter a year ago, real GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.9%.

Looking at our more timely monthly estimates of GDP, it was recently estimated that the economy fell by 0.1% in October 2024, largely because of a decline in production output.

In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, this release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 to Quarter 3 2024 as a result of updated and revised source data, including new Value Added Tax (VAT) turnover data for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024. In addition, this release includes new annual benchmark data for 2023, in particular the International Trade in Services Survey. Based on these new data we have also reviewed the balancing of the three approaches to measuring GDP from 2023 onwards.

The quarterly path of real GDP at an aggregated level is unrevised from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 to Quarter 1 2024, with downwards revisions of 0.1 percentage points in both Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 2024. There have been some revisions to individual components of GDP, for more information, see Section 8: Revisions to GDP. An indicative monthly real GDP path consistent with these quarterly figures can be found in the associated dataset.

It is important to note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). For more information please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2024 article. The GDP growth vintages from 2023 onwards are shown in Table 4.

We also produce estimates of GDP per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, that reflects a country’s living standards, as it captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in Quarter 3 2024, and is down by 0.2% compared with the same quarter a year ago. For further information, please see Section 6: GDP and real household disposable income per head.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.2% in Quarter 3 2024 (previously a 0.8% increase). Compared with the same quarter a year ago, nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 4.0%.

The implied GDP deflator represents the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that comprise GDP. It is important to note that the GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending, and also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

The implied price of GDP rose by 1.1% in Quarter 3 2024, revised up from the previous estimate of 0.7%. The increase is primarily driven by lower prices in imports, which contributes positively to the GDP implied deflator. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP implied deflator grew by 3.2% (Figure 2).

The three approaches to measuring GDP

Real annual GDP in 2023 is now estimated to have increased by 0.4%, revised up from a previous estimate of 0.3%, reflecting upward revisions in both the expenditure and income approaches to measuring GDP.

While the three approaches to measuring GDP are closely aligned (Figure 3), there can still be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2023 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is further discussed in 13: Data sources and quality.

In Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2024, output is estimated to have shown no growth, revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.1%.

There was no growth in the services sector in the latest quarter, while a 0.7% increase in construction was offset by a 0.4% fall in production. Across Quarter 3, early estimates show that 9 out of 20 of the subsectors grew, revised down from 11 in the first estimate.

Services

Services output showed no growth in the latest quarter, revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.1%. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, services output is estimated to have increased by 1.4%. Figure 4 shows 6 out of 14 services subcontributing positively to growth in Quarter 3 2024.

Overall, non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) showed no growth in Quarter 3 2024 (unrevised) while consumer-facing services increased by 0.1% (revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.5%).

The largest positive contributor to growth was the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles subsector, which increased by 0.5%. Within this subsector, growth in the latest quarter was driven by retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which increased by 1.4%. More information can be found in our Retail sales publication.

The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 3 2024 was financial and insurance activities, which fell by 0.6%.

Total services growth between Quarter 1 2023 and Quarter 1 2024 is unrevised, while both Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 2024 have been revised down by 0.1 percentage points. The revisions in the two most recent quarters are because of:

• Value Added Tax (VAT) data for Quarter 2 2024 being incorporated for the first time

• late and updated Monthly Business Survey returns

• other updated source data

• updated seasonal adjustment models

Production

The production sector is estimated to have fallen by 0.4% in the latest quarter, revised down from the first estimate fall of 0.2%. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, production output is estimated to have fallen by 2.3%.

The fall in production was largely driven by a 2.0% decline in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply and a 0.1% fall in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities. Additionally, there were falls of 0.1% in manufacturing and 0.3% in mining and quarrying.

Manufacturing output fell by 0.1% in Quarter 3 2024 (previously a 0.2% increase), with falls in 4 out of 13 of the subsectors, as highlighted in Figure 5. Within manufacturing, the largest negative contributions came from the manufacture of machinery and equipment, and transport equipment.

Production output growth has been revised down by 0.2 percentage points in both Quarter 2 2024 and Quarter 3 2024, mainly driven by manufacturing, and the mining and quarrying subsectors. These changes reflect:

• new VAT turnover data for Quarter 2 2024

• late and updated Monthly Business Survey returns

• a review of seasonal adjustment models

• updated source data for mining and quarrying

Before this, we generally see production output in 2023 revised up, largely because of new source data for the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations.

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in Quarter 3 2024 (previously a 0.8% increase), following three consecutive quarterly falls. The level of construction output in Quarter 3 2024 was 0.2% lower than the same quarter a year ago.

New work increased by 1.6% in the latest quarter, whereas repair and maintenance decreased by 0.5%. Within new work, the largest contribution to the increase came from infrastructure new work, which grew by 2.1%, while in repair and maintenance the largest negative contribution came from private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 6.0%.

The revision to construction growth in Quarter 3 2024 is because of late and updated Monthly Business Survey data. VAT data have also been introduced within the construction sector for Quarter 2 2024 but this has not changed overall growth for the quarter. There are some small revisions to construction data before Quarter 2 2024, which reflect late and updated survey returns and changes from seasonal adjustment.

Looking at the expenditure approach to measuring gross domestic product (GDP), there was an increase in net trade, household spending, gross fixed capital formation and government consumption in the latest quarter. These increases were offset by a fall in gross capital formation, specifically the acquisitions less disposals of valuables (Figure 6). This component is largely made up of non-monetary gold, which appears within net trade and so the effect is GDP neutral.

Figure 6 shows the previous and latest contributions to expenditure growth in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. These revisions to components are discussed in more detail in this section.

Household consumption

There was an increase of 0.5% in real household expenditure in Quarter 3 2024, unrevised from the first estimate. Within household consumption, the largest contributions to the growth were from housing, restaurants and hotels, and clothing and footwear.

Net tourism had little contribution to growth in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade and therefore there is no impact on the GDP aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption increased by 0.5% in the latest quarter.

Revisions to household consumption across 2023 and 2024 are mainly because of updated data for transport, recreation and culture, and restaurants and hotels.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure increased by 0.1% in Quarter 3 2024, revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.6%. The increase in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects increased expenditure in education, as well as higher school attendance numbers.

Over the course of 2023 and 2024, government consumption sees revisions mainly as a result of:

• updated data for a number of components, including public administration and defence

• a review of seasonal adjustment models

Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is estimated to have increased by 1.3% in the latest quarter, revised up from the first estimate increase of 1.1%. Growth was mainly driven by a 10.4% increase in transport.

Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have grown by 1.9% in Quarter 3 2024, revised up from the first estimate increase of 1.2% (Figure 7). Compared with the same quarter a year ago, business investment is estimated to have grown by 5.8%. Revisions in GFCF and business investment partly reflect revised survey data, as well as updates to the seasonal adjustment model.

Excluding the alignment and balancing adjustments, revised estimates show that real inventories increased by £2.5 billion in Quarter 3 2024, driven by higher stocks in manufacturing.

Net trade

The UK’s trade deficit for goods and services was 0.7% of nominal GDP in Quarter 3 2024. However, this includes non-monetary gold, which is an erratic series so it can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance. Excluding non-monetary gold, the trade deficit was 1.0% of nominal GDP in Quarter 3 2024, revised up from a previous deficit of 1.6% (Figure 8).

Export volumes fell for the third consecutive quarter, with a 0.5% decline in the latest quarter (previously a 0.2% fall). The fall in the latest quarter was driven by a 1.3% decline in services exports, which offset a 0.5% increase in goods exports. The decrease in services exports was driven mainly by other business services and transport services. The increase in goods exports was mainly driven by unspecified goods and material manufactures.

Import volumes fell by 2.5% in the latest quarter, revised down from the previous estimate fall of 1.0%. The fall in the latest quarter was driven by a 4.2% decline in goods imports, which offset a 1.3% increase in services imports. The fall in goods imports was driven by large movements in non-monetary gold, however, this series also appears within gross capital formation (GCF) as valuables and so the effect is GDP neutral. The increase in services imports was mainly because of growth in travel, and insurance and pension services.

Revisions in trade in goods mainly reflect revised data on non-monetary gold and fuels, whereas revisions in trade in services are mainly because of taking on the 2023 annual benchmark of International Trade in Services Survey data, some forecasted data being replaced with outturn data and the removal of previously applied balancing adjustments.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.2% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024, revised up from the first estimate increase of 0.8%. Growth in nominal GDP was mainly driven by increases in all four main types of income flow (Figure 9).

Figure 9 shows that there have been some revisions to components in the latest quarter; this is discussed in more detail in this section.

In 2024, there has been additional challenge in balancing the income approach to measuring GDP reflected by the alignment adjustment, which is larger than normal in Quarter 3 2024 (Table 3). This reflects some challenges and uncertainties within the income approach, which we typically have at this stage in the production cycle because of the timeliness of our data content. This does not affect headline GDP in the latest quarter as we align to the growth on the output approach to measuring GDP. Work will continue with a focus on the income approach to GDP, and we will continue to review this over the coming months as more information becomes available.

Compensation of employees

Compensation of employees increased by 0.7% in the latest quarter (previously a 0.8% increase), driven by an increase of 0.6% in wages and salaries, and a 1.3% increase in employers’ social contributions.

Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and average earnings (from our Average Weekly Earnings statistics, which are from a survey of employers). However, because of low response rates in the LFS, there is some additional uncertainty around the employees estimates used to derive our figures of wages and salaries. We have therefore used additional information from our Pay As You Earn Real Time Information bulletin to help improve the accuracy of the income measure of GDP.

Revisions in compensation of employees mainly reflect:

• new reweighted Labour Force Survey data

• review of seasonal adjustment

• other updated source data (replacing forecasts in the later period)

Other income

Other income increased by 2.6% in the latest quarter (previously a 2.0% increase), driven by growth in mixed income (in particular self-employment and rental income) and other gross operating surplus (in particular households).

Taxes less subsidies

Taxes less subsidies is estimated to have increased by 1.8% in Quarter 3 2024, revised up from the first estimate fall of 0.3%. The increase in the latest quarter was driven by a 1.5% increase in taxes (mainly Value Added Tax) and a 1.2% fall in subsidies, which contributes positively to GDP. Revisions are mainly because of updated Value Added Tax data.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations excluding the alignment adjustment increased by 3.0% in Quarter 3 2024 (Table 3), with increases of 2.8% in non-financial corporations and 3.7% in financial corporations.

Upward revisions in GOS of corporations across 2023 and 2024 mainly reflects:

• revisions to profits and holding gains data

• new reweighted Labour Force Survey self-assessment data

• removal of previously applied balancing adjustments, in particular in financial corporations in 2024

Within GOS of corporations, there is uncertainty around estimates of non-financial corporations as we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. As such, we rely on contextual data (as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information) from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates.

We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country’s living standards as it captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 (Figure 10), and is down by 0.2% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

We also estimate real household disposable income (RHDI) per head, dividing RHDI by the total UK population. RHDI per head has shown no growth in the latest quarter, but is up by 3.4% when compared with the same quarter a year ago (Figure 11). The components of this measure are further broken down in Section 7: Quarterly sector accounts.

It is important to note that estimates of GDP and RHDI per head up to 2023 are based on our updated Population estimates for England and Wales: mid-2023, whereas data from 2024 onwards are based on our interim population projections. Estimates for 2024 population projections will be updated on 28 January 2025, and will be incorporated into our February first quarterly estimate release.

Real households’ disposable income (seasonally adjusted)

Real households’ disposable income (RHDI) increased by 0.2% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024, down from 1.6% growth in the previous quarter (Figure 12).

Within RHDI, nominal gross disposable income saw growth at 0.6%, down from 2.2% growth in the previous quarter. The increase is mainly because of a rise of £3.2 billion in gross operating surplus and mixed income, and a rise in wages and salaries of £1.6 billion. This was partially offset by taxes on income of £3.5 billion. The implied deflator rose by 0.3% and the population growth rose by 0.2% both therefore negatively impacting the RHDI per head.

Household saving ratio

The household saving ratio is estimated at 10.1% in the latest quarter, down from 10.3% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024.

During Quarter 3 2024, non-pension saving contributed 5.5 percentage points to the saving ratio with pension saving contributing 4.5 percentage points (Figure 13). In the previous quarter, non-pension saving contributed 5.8 percentage points to the saving ratio and pension saving contributed 4.5 percentage points; this was the first time since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that non-pension saving had been higher than pension saving.

The same drivers that affected the gross disposable income covered earlier affect the saving ratio but here they were partially offset by a rise in final consumption expenditure of £3.8 billion. There were moderate increases across mains gas and liquid petroleum gas, actual rentals paid by tenants, restaurants and cafes, clothing and footwear, and miscellaneous goods and services.

Non-financial account net lending and borrowing (seasonally adjusted)

In the non-financial accounts, non-financial corporations, general government and non-profit institutions serving households were net borrowers as a percentage of GDP, while financial corporations, households and the rest of the world were net lenders as a percentage of GDP.

The UK’s borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP is estimated to have decreased to 2.8% in Quarter 3 2024 compared with 3.5% of GDP in Quarter 2 2024.

Non-financial corporations’ net borrowing decreased to 2.4% of GDP, from 2.9% of GDP in Quarter 2 2024. Within non-financial corporations, private non-financial corporations decreased their net borrowing to £17.1 billion from net borrowing of £20.6 billion in the previous quarter. This decrease was driven by a rise in net distributed income of corporations of £6.0 billion.

Financial corporations increased their net lending position to 1.8% of GDP, from 1.7% of GDP in Quarter 2 2024. This was driven by a fall in acquisitions less disposals of valuables of £8.0 billion as non-monetary gold exports increased in the latest quarter.

General government decreased net borrowing to 5.3% of GDP in Quarter 3 2024, from 5.9% of GDP in Quarter 2 2024. Within general government, central government decreased net borrowing to £36.8 billion following £40.5 billion in the previous quarter. This decrease was driven by a rise in taxes on income of £4.7 billion, and taxes on production and imports of £1.3 billion. This was partially offset by final consumption expenditure, which increased by £1.3 billion, and gross fixed capital formation of £1.2 billion. 

Households decreased their net lending position to 3.4% of GDP, down from 3.8% of GDP in Quarter 2 2024. The drivers for this position are the same as those for the household saving ratio with the addition of a fall in other capital transfers receivable of £1.3 billion.

Financial account net lending and borrowing (not seasonally adjusted)

In the financial accounts, non-financial corporations, general government and non-profit institutions serving households were net borrowers as a percentage of GDP, while financial corporations, households and the rest of the world were net lenders as a percentage of GDP. 

The UK’s net borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP is estimated to have increased to 2.7% in Quarter 3 2024 compared with 2.2% of GDP in Quarter 2 2024.

Non-financial corporations have seen an increase in net borrowing as a percentage of GDP to 2.8% in the latest quarter, up from 1.6% in Quarter 2 2024. Within this sector, private non-financial corporations (PNFCs) increased their net borrowing to £20.4 billion in Quarter 3 2024, from £12.4 billion in the previous quarter. This was driven by a rise in loan liabilities of £18.3 billion, decreased currency and deposits assets of £6.4 billion, partially offset by decreased net equity and investment funds and units of £20.5 billion.

Financial corporations are lending at 3.7% of GDP in the latest quarter. Their financial account saw a rise in net loans of £77.6 billion and in net equity and investment funds and units of £14.9 billion. The currency and deposits element of the accounts saw movements across the piece including falls in net deposits with UK monetary financial institutions (MFIs) of £71.8 billion and increased net other deposits of £14.9 billion, leading to a fall in net currency and deposits of £44.2 billion.

General government decreased their net borrowing as a percentage of GDP to an estimated 5.7% in the latest quarter, from 8.2% in Quarter 2 2024. This decrease was driven by a fall in long-term debt securities issued by UK central government (liabilities) of £32.3 billion, partially offset by a fall in net currency and deposits of £18.4 billion.

Households decreased their net lending as a percentage of GDP in the latest quarter at an estimated 2.1%, from 5.5% in Quarter 2 2024. This was driven by a fall in net equity and investment funds and units of £9.9 billion, net loans of £6.8 billion and currency and deposits of £4.6 billion.

In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, the dataset is open to revision back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 as part of this publication. The revised estimates of average real gross domestic product (GDP) compared with the first estimate are shown in Figure 1, while Table 4 shows quarter-on-quarter growth at different publication vintages for real GDP.

Annex tables AE to AG in our GDP data tables show the revisions to the main components of GDP. This release includes the processing of new and revised source data, including new Value Added Tax (VAT) data for Quarter 2 2024, replacement of forecasts with actual survey or external source data, new seasonal adjustment factors, and a comprehensive review of GDP balancing. In addition, this release includes the new annual benchmark data for 2023, in particular the International Trade in Services Survey.

Revision triangles for GDP and components are available.

It is also important to note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative), for more information please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2024 article.

UK net borrowing from the rest of the world as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) was revised up from 2.2% to 2.4% in 2023. This revision was driven by downward revision to compensation of employees of £3.3 billion and an upward revision to final consumption expenditure of £2.5 billion.

Non-financial corporations’ net borrowing as a percentage of GDP was revised down from 0.3% to 0.1% in 2023. This was driven by upward revisions to gross operating surplus of £3.3 billion and downward revisions to taxes on income of £2.9 billion.

Financial corporations’ net lending as a percentage of GDP was revised down from 2.5% to 2.4% in 2023. This revision was driven by downward revisions to gross operating surplus of £2.7 billion and net property income of £2.4 billion. This was partially offset by upward revisions to net social contributions of £1.4 billion. 

General government net borrowing as a percentage of GDP was revised up from 5.7% to 6.0% in 2023. This was driven by upward revisions to final consumption expenditure of £4.0 billion and downward revisions to taxes on income of £2.9 billion.

Households’ net lending as a percentage of GDP was revised up from 1.4% to 1.5% in 2023. This was primarily driven by upward revisions to net property income of £1.7 billion and the adjustment for pension entitlements of £1.4 billion. There were also downward revisions in final consumption expenditure of £1.5 billion and gross capital formation of £1.1 billion as well as other smaller changes across the accounts. This was partially offset by downward revisions to compensation of employees of £3.3 billion and net social contributions of £2.1 billion.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

The different data content and quality of the three approaches: the output approach, the expenditure approach and the income approach, dictate the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. In the UK, there are more data available on output in the short term than in either of the other two approaches. To obtain the best estimate of GDP (the published figure), the estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 3 showed that while the three approaches to measuring GDP are closely aligned, however, there can still be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2023 onwards until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables framework (SUTs). This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is further discussed in this section.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services) as outlined in our Blue Book 2024: advanced aggregate estimates release. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added and assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2022, holds constant into 2023 onwards. More information on this is provided in our previous release.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas such as the Living Costs and Food Survey, which is one of our many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. We therefore rely on additional indicators such as the Monthly Business Survey to quality adjust some of our estimates in the short run.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses as these data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data (as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information) from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates. There is currently more uncertainty around the compensation of employees figures in this release because of lower response rates in the Labour Force Survey. We have used additional information from our Pay As You Earn Real Time Information bulletin to help inform the estimates.

Reaching the GDP balance

Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of the three approaches, while the GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences (in both levels and growths terms) between the quarterly publications (average GDP) and the GDP monthly estimate (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables, which enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use for Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP is available.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP data tables, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed, as explained in our article Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP. Our standard practice is to prefer that the alignment adjustment be out of tolerance rather than over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter where the constraints are larger, where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest. In 2024, there has been additional challenge in balancing the income approach to measuring GDP reflected by the alignment adjustment, which is larger than normal in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024 (Table 3). This reflects some challenges and uncertainties within the income approach, which we typically have at this stage in the production cycle because of the timeliness of our data content. This does not affect headline GDP in the latest quarter as we align to the growth on the output approach to measuring GDP. Work will continue with a focus on the income approach to GDP, and we will continue to review this over the coming months as more information becomes available.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, balancing adjustments are applied to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in a given quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. The balancing adjustments applied in this estimate are shown in Table 7. The resulting series should be considered accordingly.

Net trade

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, the arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes, however, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU from January 2021.

We advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. Our article, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021, provides more detail.

Strengths and limitations

The UK National Accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring gross domestic product (GDP) can be found in the Guide to the UK National Accounts, and more quality and methodology information (QMI) is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) QMI.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series, and these include:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of “errors” in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical “error”.

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions; the “Accuracy and reliability” section in the Gross domstic product (GDP) QMI analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled “accredited official statistics”.