GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: October to December 2024

• UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, unrevised from the first estimate.
• Looking at the quarters open to revision; real GDP growth is unrevised in five of the eight quarters compared with the first estimate, with growth in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024 each revised up 0.1 percentage points.
• The services sector increased by 0.1% in output terms for Quarter 4 2024; construction also grew, by 0.3%, while production fell by 0.4%.
• Real annual GDP in 2024 is now estimated to have increased by 1.1%, revised up from the first estimate increase of 0.9%, this follows an unrevised increase of 0.4% in 2023.
• Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by an unrevised 0.1% in Quarter 4 2024 and showed no growth across all of 2024 (revised up from the first estimate fall of 0.1%).
• This release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 because of updated and revised source data, including the full suite of corrected trade in goods and services data (more information is available in Section 4: Expenditure).
• Real households' disposable income (RHDI) per head increased by 1.7% in Quarter 4 2024, up from 0.6% growth in the previous quarter.
• The household saving ratio is estimated at 12.0% in the latest quarter up from 10.3% in Quarter 3 (Jul to Sep) 2024.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, unrevised from the first estimate (Figure 1). Real GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.5%, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Looking at our more timely monthly estimates, GDP was estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in January 2025, largely because of a decline in production output.

This release includes revisions to data from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 because of updated and revised source data, including the full suite of corrected trade in goods and services data (more information is available in Section 4: Expenditure). This is in line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy. We have also reviewed the balancing of the three approaches to measuring GDP from 2023 onwards, based on these new data.

Looking at the quarters open to revision, real GDP growth is unrevised in five of the eight quarters compared with the first estimate. The growths in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023 to Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2024 were each revised up 0.1 percentage points. There have been some revisions to individual components of GDP. For more information, see Section 8: Revisions to GDP.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2024 article. The GDP growth vintages from 2023 onwards are shown in Table 4.

We also produce estimates of GDP per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country’s living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 4 2024, unrevised from the first estimate. This is up 0.5%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Our revised estimate shows that there was no growth in real GDP per head in 2024.

The population estimates for 2023 and 2024 have not been revised in this release and are in-line with our National population projections: 2022-based bulletin, published on 28 January 2025. The estimates use migration statistics from our Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2024 bulletin.

See Section 6: Real GDP per head for more information.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.1% in Quarter 4 2024, mainly driven by an increase in compensation of employees. Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 6.4%, compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that make up GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending. It also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

The implied price of GDP rose by 1.0% in Quarter 4 2024, mainly driven by higher prices in both government and household consumption. The GDP implied deflator grew by 4.8%, compared with the same quarter a year ago (Figure 2).

The three approaches to measuring GDP

Real annual GDP in 2024 is now estimated to have increased by 1.1%, revised up from the first estimate increase of 0.9%. This follows an unrevised increase of 0.4% in 2023.

While the three approaches to measuring GDP are closely aligned (Figure 3), there can still be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the 2023 and 2024 production cycle. This is until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework. For those periods that have not yet been fully balanced in the SUTs framework, the annual growth reflects an average of the estimates of the three approaches. This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is discussed in Section 12: Data sources and quality.

Output is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, unrevised from the first estimate.

The services sector increased by 0.1% in the latest quarter. Construction output also grew, by 0.3%, while production fell by 0.4%. Revised estimates show that 13 out of 20 of the subsectors grew across Quarter 4 2024, revised up from 11 in the first estimate.

Services

Services output increased by 0.1% in the latest quarter, revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.2%. Services output is estimated to have increased by 1.9%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Non-consumer-facing services (business-facing services) increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 2024 (revised down from 0.2% growth), while consumer-facing services showed no growth (revised down from 0.1% growth). The services sector increased by 1.5% across 2024, with non-consumer-facing services increasing by 1.9% and consumer-facing services declining by 0.3%.

Figure 4 shows that 7 out of 14 services subsectors contributed positively to growth in Quarter 4 2024. The largest positive contributor to growth was human health and social work activities, which increased by 0.7%. For more information, see the subsection on Consumption of government goods and services in Section 4: Expenditure.

The second largest positive contribution to growth was from professional, scientific and technical activities, which increased by 0.7%. Within this subsector, seven out of eight of the industries contributed positively to growth.

The largest negative contributor to growth in Quarter 4 2024 was administration and support service activities, which fell by 1.2%. This was largely driven by a 5.5% fall in employment activities.

There have been some small revisions to services across 2023 and 2024. These changes reflect:

• new VAT turnover data for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024
• late and updated Monthly Business Survey returns
• a review of seasonal adjustment models
• other updated source data

Production

The production sector is estimated to have fallen for the third consecutive quarter, with a 0.4% decline in Quarter 4 2024, revised up from a first estimate fall of 0.8%. Production output is estimated to have fallen by 1.1%, compared with the same quarter a year ago, and fell by 1.2% for 2024 as a whole.

The fall in production in Quarter 4 2024 was largely driven by a 0.6% decline in manufacturing and a 2.3% decline in mining and quarrying. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply increased by 0.8%. Water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities increased by 1.5%.

Manufacturing output fell by 0.6% in Quarter 4 2024 (previously a 0.7% fall), and there was no growth across 2024 as a whole (revised up from a 0.7% fall). Figure 5 shows that there have been falls in 7 out of 13 of the subsectors in the latest quarter. The largest negative contributions were from the manufacture of basic metals and metal products, which fell by 2.9%, and the manufacture of transport equipment, which fell by 2.0%.

The manufacture of basic metals and metal products fall in Quarter 4 2024 was driven by the manufacture of basic iron and steel, which fell by 26.4%, after also falling in the two previous quarters. This is supported by International Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB) which reported the “the UK Steel industry experienced a significant decline in production in 2024”.

The manufacture of transport has fallen for three consecutive quarters, mainly because of a decline in the manufacture of motor vehicles and motorcycles. Anecdotal evidence from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) showed a fall in vehicle production, as described in their news update on UK manufacturing.

There have been some small revisions to production in 2023, while Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) and Quarter 4 2024 both see upward revisions of 0.4 percentage points.

These changes reflect:

• new VAT turnover data for Quarter 3 2024
• late and updated Monthly Business Survey returns, most notably in the manufacture of basic pharmaceuticals products and pharmaceutical preparations industry
• a review of seasonal adjustment models
• other updated source data, most notably in the manufacture of basic iron and steel industry

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have grown by 0.3% in Quarter 4 2024 (previously a 0.5% increase), following a 0.4% increase in the previous quarter. The level of construction output was 0.9% higher in Quarter 4 2024 compared with the same quarter a year ago, and increased by 0.5% in 2024 (revised up from 0.4%).

New work increased by 1.0% in Quarter 4 2024 (revised down from 1.2% growth) and repair and maintenance fell by 0.6% (revised down from 0.4% fall). The largest contributor to the increase within new work came from private new housing, which grew by 1.5% (up from 1.3%). The largest negative contributor in repair and maintenance came from private housing repair and maintenance, which fell by 2.9% (revised down from 2.5%).

The revision to construction growth across 2023 and 2024 are because of a combination of updated survey returns and revisions to VAT data.

Looking at the expenditure approach to measuring gross domestic product (GDP), there were falls in net trade and gross fixed capital formation in the latest quarter. These falls were offset by a large increase in gross capital formation: other, specifically change in inventories and valuables (Figure 6).

Figure 6 shows the previous and latest contributions to expenditure growth in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024. However, there have been revisions across 2023 and 2024. Most notably, this release includes the full suite of corrected trade in goods and services data, which is further discussed in the net trade part of this section.

Household consumption

There was an increase of 0.1% in real household expenditure in Quarter 4 2024, revised up from the first estimate of no growth. Within household consumption, increases in restaurants and hotels, and housing, were partially offset by declines in food and drink, and education. Household consumption is estimated to have increased by 0.6% across 2024.

Net tourism contributed positively to growth in household consumption in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade, so there is no impact on the GDP aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts articles: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption showed no growth in the latest quarter.

Revisions to household consumption across 2023 and 2024 are mainly a result of updated data and applied balancing adjustments.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% in Quarter 4 2024, and is 2.6% higher, compared with the same quarter a year ago. The increase in government consumption in the latest quarter mainly reflects increased expenditure on public administration and defence, and higher activity in health.

There are revisions to general government volume output estimates for health consumption from Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 onwards. While these partly reflect source data revisions, the largest impact comes from implementing our latest healthcare benchmark for the financial year ending 2023. This benchmarks our timely quarterly series against a more comprehensive annual dataset.

The latest benchmark is a more granular and complete assessment of healthcare activities across the whole UK, including activities outside the quarterly measure. The effects of this have been implemented in data from Quarter 1 2023 onwards, with the impacts on quarters in 2022 to be implemented in the next Blue Book, published alongside the Quarterly National Accounts in September 2025. This is the first data point in the annual series that follows the extensive changes made to healthcare to respond to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. As a result, based on analysis of revisions between the annual series and the sum of the corresponding quarters, we have reevaluated the quarterly path from Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2023 onwards. This is to improve the expected alignment to the next annual benchmark.

Gross capital formation

Within gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in the latest quarter, revised up from a 0.9% fall in the first estimate. The decline in the latest quarter was mainly driven by a 19.4% fall in transport. However, this follows strong growth of 14.2% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024.

Within GFCF, business investment is estimated to have fallen by 1.9% in Quarter 4 2024, revised up from the first estimate fall of 3.2%. Business investment increased by 2.0% across 2024, compared with 2023. Revisions in GFCF and business investment partly reflect revised survey data, updates to our seasonal adjustment model, and applied balancing adjustments.

Excluding the alignment and balancing adjustments, revised estimates show that real inventories increased by £5.2 billion in Quarter 4 2024 (Table 2). This was driven by higher stocks in retail and manufacturing.

Net trade

The UK’s trade deficit for goods and services was 1.7% of nominal GDP in Quarter 4 2024. However, this includes non-monetary gold and other precious metals, which is an erratic series. It can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance. Excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, the trade deficit was 1.4% of nominal GDP in Quarter 4 2024, unrevised from the first estimate (Figure 7).

As previously announced this release includes the full suite of corrected trade in goods and services data. These updates include:

• HMRC data feed: during the ONS’s routine quality assurance, an error was identified in the data that HMRC delivered to the ONS relating to imports of goods from January 2023 to December 2024
• Trade in services processing error: during further quality assurance, an error was identified in the international trade in services results processing system, which affected estimates of services imports and exports from 2023 onwards
• Some updates to source data, including the benchmarking of the 2024 annual trade in services estimates and rebasing
• Review of previously applied balancing adjustments

As a result of these updates, there has been a downward revision to the total trade balance. This widens the deficit by approximately £7.7 billion in current price terms and £5.4 billion in volume terms for 2023, and £4.3 billion in current price terms and £7.2 billion in volume terms for 2024. However, these changes have not driven any of the revisions to headline GDP because there have been offsetting upward revisions to other components of GDP, for example in government consumption.

More detail is available in our UK trade: January 2025 release published 28 March 2025.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an unrevised 1.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, and is up 5.2% in 2024. Growth in nominal GDP was mainly driven by increases in compensation of employees (Figure 8).

Compensation of employees

Compensation of employees increased by 2.6% in the latest quarter, revised up from the first estimate increase of 2.2%. This was driven by an increase of 2.5% in wages and salaries, and a 3.2% increase in employers’ social contributions. The rise in wages and salaries reflects increases in both private sector and public sector. Public sector wages saw increases because of backdated pay settlements in both the education and health sectors.

Compensation of employees grew by 6.2% across 2024. Wages and salaries increased by 5.8% and employers’ social contributions increased by 7.9%.

Early estimates of private sector wages and salaries are based on estimates of the number of employees in the economy from our Labour Force Survey (LFS) and average earnings from our average weekly earnings statistics. However, there is some additional uncertainty around the employees estimates used to derive our figures of wages and salaries because of low response rates in the LFS. We have therefore used additional information from our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information UK to help improve the accuracy of the income measure of GDP.

Revisions in compensation of employees mainly reflect the removal of previous balancing adjustments and some updates to source data particularly in the latest quarter.

Other income

Other income increased by 1.7% in the latest quarter. This was driven by growth in mixed income, from self-employment and rental income, and other gross operating surplus, from households.

Taxes less subsidies

Taxes less subsidies are estimated to have fallen by 1.4% in Quarter 4 2024. There was a 1.4% fall in taxes (mainly Value Added Tax) which offset a 2.0% fall in subsidies, which contribute positively to GDP. Revisions are mainly because of updated Value Added Tax data.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations excluding the alignment adjustment fell by 0.5% in Quarter 4 2024 (Table 3). This is mainly because of a decline in private non-financial and financial corporations.

There is uncertainty around estimates of non-financial corporations within GOS of corporations. This is because we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

We produce estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production, which reflects a country’s living standards. It captures the volume of goods and services available to the average person. Further information on this is available in our Trends in UK real GDP per head: 2022 to 2024 article.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024 (Figure 9), unrevised from the first estimate. This is up 0.5%, compared with the same quarter a year ago. Our revised estimate shows that there was no growth in real GDP per head in 2024.

We also estimate RHDI per head, dividing RHDI by the total UK population. RHDI per head has increased by 1.7% in Quarter 4 2024, up from 0.6% in the previous quarter (Figure 10). The components of this measure are further broken down in section 7 of this bulletin (Quarterly Sector Accounts).

The population estimates 2023 and 2024 are line with our National population projections: 2022-based bulletin, published on 28 January 2025, and uses migration statistics from our Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2024 bulletin.

The revisions to the financial account, non-financial account and balance sheet are mainly from incorporating revised FDI data. This is of improved quality, following a temporary pause to full processing affecting the rest of the world and PNFC sectors. Further details are in Balance of payments, UK: October to December 2024, Section 12: Data sources and quality.

Real households' disposable income per head (seasonally adjusted)

Real households' disposable income (RHDI) increased by 1.9% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, up from 0.8% growth in the previous quarter. Within RHDI, nominal gross disposable income saw growth at 2.7%, up from 1.3% growth in the previous quarter. The increase is mainly because of a rise of £7.2 billion in wages and salaries (predominantly from the private sector), and a rise in social benefits, other than social transfers in kind, of £3.8 billion. This was partially offset by a rise in taxes on income of £1.8 billion. The implied deflator rose by 0.7%, and the population growth rose by 0.2%, both therefore reducing RHDI per head.

Household saving ratio 

The household saving ratio is estimated to have grown to 12.0% in the latest quarter, up from 10.3% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2024. During Quarter 4 2024, non-pension saving contributed 7.3 percentage points to the saving ratio, with pension saving contributing 4.7 percentage points. In the previous quarter, non-pension saving contributed 5.8 percentage points and pension saving contributed 4.5 percentage points to the saving ratio. Excluding the period affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the household saving ratio stood at its highest point since Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2010. Moreover, non-pension savings contribution to the saving ratio is at its highest level on record, outside of the period affected by the coronavirus pandemic.

The same drivers that affected the gross disposable income affect the saving ratio but are partially offset by a rise in final consumption expenditure of £3.8 billion. There were moderate increases across restaurants and cafes, and miscellaneous goods and services, partially offset by transport.

Non-financial account net lending and borrowing (seasonally adjusted)

In the non-financial accounts, non-financial corporations, general government, and non-profit institutions serving households were net borrowers. Financial corporations, households and the rest of the world were net lenders in the latest quarter.

The UK’s borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased to 3.1% in Quarter 4 2024. This is compared with 1.9% of GDP in Quarter 3 2024.

Non-financial corporations net borrowing increased to 1.8% of GDP in the latest quarter, from 0.7% of GDP in Quarter 3 2024. Within non-financial corporations, private non-financial corporations increased their net borrowing to £14.0 billion in Quarter 4 2024, from net borrowing of £5.1 billion in the previous quarter. This increase was driven by a fall in net property income of £7.4 billion.

Financial corporations decreased their net lending position to 0.8% of GDP in Quarter 4 2024, from 1.3% of GDP in Quarter 3 2024. This was driven by a decrease in net capital transfers, and an increase in acquisitions less disposals of valuables, and was partially offset by an increase in net property income.

General government increased net borrowing to 6.1% of GDP in Quarter 4 2024 from 5.6% of GDP in Quarter 3 2024. Within general government, central government increased net borrowing to £43.1 billion following £39.0 billion in the previous quarter. This increase was driven by a combination of expenditure in Health and Education in the form of wage increases, and a continued increase in Defence spending.

Households increased their net lending position to 4.5% of GDP, up from 3.5% of GDP in Quarter 3 2024. The level of net lending is now the highest it’s ever been outside of the period affected by the coronavirus. The drivers for this position are the same as those identified in the household saving ratio.

Financial account net lending and borrowing (not seasonally adjusted)

In the financial accounts, non-financial corporations, general government and non-profit institutions serving households were net borrowers in Quarter 4 2024. Financial corporations, households, and the rest of the world were net lenders in the same quarter.

The UK’s net borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP is estimated to have decreased to 1.5% in Quarter 4 2024, compared with 4.8% of GDP in Quarter 3 2024.

Non-financial corporations have seen a decrease in net borrowing as a percentage of GDP to 0.6% in the latest quarter, down from 0.7% in Quarter 3 2024. Within this sector, private non-financial corporations (PNFCs) decreased their net borrowing to £4.2 billion in Quarter 4 2024 from £4.8 billion in the previous quarter. This was driven by a rise in net debt securities of £12.5 billion and a rise in net loans of £8.5 billion, partially offset by a fall in net other income of £18.1 billion.

Financial corporations are lending at 0.9% of GDP in the latest quarter. Their financial account saw a rise in net currency and deposits of £211.8 billion, partially offset by falls in net loans of £72.3 billion, net equity and investment funds of £70.6 billion, and net debt securities of £68.5 billion.

General government increased their net borrowing as a percentage of GDP to an estimated 7.3% in the latest quarter from 6.1% in Quarter 3 2024. This was driven by falls in net debt securities of £16.1 billion, net loans of £6.1 billion and net currency and deposits of £5.1 billion. This was partially offset by a rise in net other accounts of £16.5 billion.

Households increased their net lending as a percentage of GDP in the latest quarter at an estimated 5.6% from 1.7% in Quarter 3 2024. This was driven by a rise in net currency and deposits of £17.7 billion, a rise in net loans of £6.3 billion and a rise in net other accounts of £3.0 billion.

The dataset is open to revision back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2023 as part of this bulletin, in line with our National Accounts Revisions Policy.

Figure 1 shows the revised estimates of average real gross domestic product (GDP), compared with the first estimate. Table 4 shows quarter-on-quarter growth at different publication vintages for real GDP. Annex tables AE to AG in our GDP data tables show the revisions to the main components of GDP and revision triangles for GDP and components are available.

Early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative), as described in our Why GDP figures are revised article. For more information, please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2024 article.

The three approaches to measuring GDP

There is different data content and quality of the three approaches: the output approach, the expenditure approach and the income approach. This dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. There are more data available on output in the UK in the short term than in the other two approaches. To get the best estimate of GDP (gross domestic product), our published figure, estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 3 showed that the three approaches to measuring GDP are closely aligned. However, there can still be uncertainty at the component level at this stage in the production cycle for 2023 and 2024 until these data have been confronted through the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework. This uncertainty may be for various reasons and is further discussed in this section.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (the value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services). This is outlined in our Blue Book 2024: advanced aggregate estimates release. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added. We assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2022, holds constant into 2023 onwards. More information on this is provided in Section 11: Data sources and quality of our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2024 bulletin.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas, such as the Living Costs and Food Survey, which is one of many data sources that inform our estimates of household consumption. We therefore rely on additional indicators, such as our Monthly Business Survey, to quality adjust some of our estimates in the short term.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses. These data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates, as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information (QMI). There is currently more uncertainty around the compensation of employees figures in this release because of lower response rates in our Labour Force Survey (LFS), as described in our LFS: planned improvements and its reintroduction methodology. We have used additional information from our Earnings and employment Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: January 2025 bulletin to help inform the estimates.

Reaching the GDP balance

Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of the three approaches. The GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences, in both levels and growths terms, between our quarterly bulletins (average GDP) and our GDP monthly estimate bulletins (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables, which enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use is in our Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP report.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP data tables, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed, as explained in our Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP article. Our standard practice is to prefer that the alignment adjustment be out of tolerance rather than over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter where the constraints are larger, where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, we apply balancing adjustments to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in each quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. The balancing adjustments applied in this estimate are shown in Table 7. The resulting series should be considered accordingly.

Net trade

Since the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020, the arrangements for how the UK trades with the EU changed. HMRC implemented some data collection changes following Brexit, which affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. We have made adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU in 2021 and 2022 to account for these changes. However, a structural break remains in the full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU from January 2021.

We advise caution when interpreting and drawing conclusions from these statistics. More detail is in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: summary of adjustments and the structural break from 2021 article.

Pausing of Producer Prices publications

As announced on 21 March 2025, during work to improve the systems used to create the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Services Producer Price Indices (SPPI), our quality assurance identified a problem with the chain-linking methods used to calculate the PPI and SPPI indices.

As these detailed price data are used within our GDP calculations, this may lead to impacts on the level of some industries, with revisions to estimates for services, production and construction particularly likely in 2022 and 2023. At an aggregate level for GDP, these revisions should be offsetting to an extent, while taken alongside regular data deliveries. Early indications suggest that there will not be a notable change in the recent economic trends seen in these data, but we will update users once more information becomes available. We do not plan any changes to the publication timetable for monthly, quarterly or annual GDP.

We will provide further information on the likely impacts as soon as is practicable.

Strengths and limitations

The UK national accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring GDP can be found in our Guide to the UK National Accounts. More quality and methodology information is available in our GDP QMI.

Seasonal adjustment

The headline estimates of quarterly GDP are seasonally adjusted. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing the variations associated with the time of year, or the arrangement of the calendar, from a data time series.

GDP estimates, as for many data time series, are difficult to analyse using raw data because seasonal effects dominate short-term movements. Identifying and removing the seasonal component leaves the trend and irregular components.

The ONS uses the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS approach to seasonal adjustment. Seasonal adjustment parameters are monitored closely and regularly reviewed.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series. These include:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high
• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy
• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise because of “errors” in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical “error”.

Many different approaches can be used to summarise revisions. The section on Accuracy and reliability in our GDP QMI analyses the mean average revision and the mean absolute revision for GDP estimates over data publication iterations.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled “accredited official statistics”.