Summary of request
For ONS to publish vintages of HMRC Value Added Tax (VAT) data to support the analysis of the Economic Centre of Excellence (ESCOE) research project. This project aims to enhance the accuracy of the early estimate of the GDP by using VAT returns turnover figures for smaller firms in calculating GDP. There was also a requirement for the Monthly Business Survey at size-band level for the research.
More on this project https://www.escoe.ac.uk/projects/producing-industrial-output-and-earnings-data-with-vat-returns-and-paye-data/
Important for use of this data:
Analysis of VAT turnover data across industries for inclusion in the UK GDP showed the current price level to be different from both the Monthly Business Survey and Annual Business Survey (ABS) datasets. Some conceptual differences exist in the measurement of turnover from the monthly business surveys and the HMRC VAT returns, which may explain some of the discrepancy. As a result, the use of this overall VAT turnover-derived level of turnover to inform output levels in the UK economy is not feasible and VAT turnover is currently used as an index of growth for each of the industries and the relevant employment strata.
More information here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/methodologies/vatturnoverdatainnationalaccountsbackgroundandmethodology
Contact
For further information on this request please email regionalgdp@ons.gov.uk.