Consumer price inflation, UK: May 2024

• The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 2.8% in the 12 months to May 2024, down from 3.0% in the 12 months to April.

• On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.4% in May 2024, compared with a rise of 0.6% in May 2023.

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.0% in the 12 months to May 2024, down from 2.3% in the 12 months to April.

• On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3% in May 2024, compared with a rise of 0.7% in May 2023.

• The largest downward contribution to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates came from food, with prices falling this year but rising a year ago; the largest upward contribution came from motor fuels, with prices rising slightly this year but falling a year ago.

• Core CPIH (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 4.2% in the 12 months to May 2024, down from 4.4% in April; the CPIH goods annual rate fell from negative 0.8% to negative 1.3%, while the CPIH services annual rate eased slightly from 6.0% to 5.9%.

• Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to May 2024, down from 3.9% in April; the CPI goods annual rate fell from negative 0.8% to negative 1.3%, while the CPI services annual rate eased from 5.9% to 5.7%.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 2.8% in the 12 months to May 2024, down from 3.0% in the 12 months to April, and down from a recent peak of 9.6% in October 2022.

Our Consumer price inflation, historical estimates and recent trends article suggests that the October 2022 inflation rate was the highest in over 40 years (the CPIH accredited official statistic series begins in January 2006). The annual rate in May 2024 was the lowest since July 2021, when it was 2.1%.

The monthly CPIH rate in May 2024 was 0.4%, compared with 0.6% a year earlier.

The owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) component of CPIH rose by 6.7% in the 12 months to May 2024, up from 6.6% in the 12 months to April. This is the highest annual rate since July 1992 in the constructed historical series. OOH costs rose by 0.6% on the month, compared with a 0.5% increase between April and May 2023.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.0% in the 12 months to May 2024, down from 2.3% in the 12 months to April, and well below its recent peak of 11.1% in October 2022. Our indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates suggest that the October 2022 peak was the highest rate in over 40 years (the CPI accredited official statistic series begins in January 1997). The annual rate in May 2024 was the lowest since July 2021, when it was also 2.0%. The rate was last lower in April 2021, when it was 1.5%.

The monthly CPI rate in May 2024 was 0.3%, compared with 0.7% a year earlier.

The main drivers of the annual inflation rate for CPIH and CPI are the same where they are common to both measures. However, the OOH component accounts for approximately 16% of the CPIH and is the main driver for differences between the CPIH and CPI inflation rates. This makes CPIH our most comprehensive measure of inflation. We cover this in more detail in Section 4: Latest movements in CPIH inflation and provide a commentary on the CPI in Section 5: Latest movements in CPI inflation. We also cover both CPIH and CPI in Section 3: Notable movements in prices, though the figures reflect CPIH.

The easing in the annual inflation rates in May 2024 reflected downward contributions from eight divisions, partially offset by upward contributions from two. The largest downward effects came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, recreation and culture, and furniture and household goods. Transport provided the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 1.7% in the year to May 2024, down from 2.9% in the year to April. The May figure is the lowest annual rate since October 2021. The rate has eased for the 14th consecutive month from a recent high of 19.2% in March 2023, the highest annual rate seen for over 45 years.

Prices fell by 0.3% between April and May 2024, compared with a monthly rise of 0.9% a year ago. Prices have been relatively high but stable since early summer 2023, compared with sharp rises over the previous 12 months. The annual rate of 1.7% in May 2024 compares with 18.4% in May 2023.

Annual rates eased in 9 of the 11 food and non-alcoholic beverages classes, the exceptions being oils and fats, and milk, cheese and eggs.

The main downward effects came from a combination of bread and cereals, vegetables, and sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery. In each case, prices fell between April and May this year, compared with a monthly rise a year ago. The resulting annual rates were the lowest since October 2021 for the first two categories and since June 2022 for sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery.

The more detailed products in these categories which contributed to easing rates included breakfast cereals, potato crisps and bars of chocolate.

Recreation and culture

Prices for recreational and cultural goods and services rose by 0.2% between April and May this year, compared with a larger monthly rise of 0.7% a year ago. The annual rate eased to 4.1% in the year to May 2024, down from 4.6% in the year to April. The annual rate in May was equalled in February 2023, and the rate was last lower in January 2022, when it was 2.9%.

The easing in the annual rate between April and May 2024 was the result of small downward effects from a variety of the more detailed classes. The largest came from pets and related products, package holidays, books, and cultural services. Prices of pets and related products, and books fell between April and May this year, compared with a monthly rise a year ago. Prices of package holidays and cultural services rose this year by less than a year ago.

Furniture and household goods

Prices of furniture and household goods overall rose by 0.2% between April and May 2024, compared with a larger monthly rise of 1.1% a year ago. On an annual basis, prices fell by 1.8% in the year to May, compared with a fall of 0.9% in the year to April. The annual rate in May 2024 was the lowest since December 2000.

The main contribution to the easing in the rate came from electrical appliances, where prices fell by 2.5% in the month to May 2024, compared with a monthly rise of 2.2% in May 2023. Prices of most products in this category fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward effects coming from vacuum cleaners, fridge freezers and washing machines.

Transport

Overall prices in the transport division rose by 0.3% in the year to May 2024, compared with a fall of 0.1% in the year to April. This is the first annual price rise since October 2023. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.7% this year, compared with 0.3% a year ago. The increase in the annual rate was the result of upward effects from motor fuels and, to a lesser extent, transport services, partially offset by lower second-hand car prices.

The average price of petrol rose by 0.7 pence per litre between April and May 2024 to stand at 148.8 pence per litre, up from 144.4 pence per litre in May 2023. Diesel prices fell by 0.8 pence per litre in May 2024 to stand at 156.3 pence per litre, up from 154.6 pence per litre in May 2023. These movements resulted in overall motor fuel prices rising by 2.3% in the year to May 2024, compared with a fall of 0.3% in the year to April.

The small upward effect from transport services resulted from prices rising by more in May 2024 than a year ago. There were small upward contributions from rail, air, and sea fares.

Second-hand car prices fell by 0.5% between April and May 2024, compared with a monthly rise of 0.9% a year ago. On an annual basis, prices fell by 11.2% in the year to May 2024, compared with a fall of 10.0% in the year to April. The annual rate has been negative for ten consecutive months and generally becoming more negative over that period.

Figure 5 shows the annual inflation rates for the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) series for all goods and all services, together with CPIH excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPIH). The CPIH inflation rate is added for comparison.

The core CPIH annual inflation rate was 4.2% in May 2024, which was the lowest rate since January 2022. It was down from 4.4% in April 2024 and from a recent high of 6.5% in May 2023, which was the highest rate since November 1991, when it was also 6.5% in our Constructed historical series.

The CPIH all goods index fell by 1.3% in the 12 months to May 2024, compared with a fall of 0.8% in the 12 months to April. This is the largest annual fall since August 2016. The downward effects came from non-energy industrial goods (particularly housing goods, clothing and footwear goods, and vehicles), and food, alcohol and tobacco. The only large, partially offsetting upward contribution was from energy, principally from motor fuels.

The CPIH all services index rose by 5.9% in the 12 months to May 2024, slightly down from 6.0% in April. The downward effect came from recreational and personal services (principally catering services, package holidays and cultural services), partially offset by housing services.

Figure 6 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to the change in the annual CPIH inflation rate between April and May 2024. To understand what has changed the inflation rate between these months, we can look at the differences between the contributions each of the 12 divisions made to the rate in April 2024 and the rate in May 2024. These differences sum to the change in the annual CPIH rate between the latest two months, that is, the easing from 3.0% to 2.8%.

The slowing in the rate into May 2024 reflected downward contributions from eight divisions, partially offset by upward contributions from two divisions. The largest downward contributions came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, recreation and culture, and furniture and household goods. The largest upward contribution was from transport.

Figure 7 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPIH inflation rate over the last two years. The contribution of each category to the annual rate depends on the price movement in that category as well as its weight, which is updated annually.

The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in May 2024 came from restaurants and hotels, and housing and household services. The contribution from restaurants and hotels eased slightly to 0.67 percentage points in May 2024, while the contribution from housing and household services rose slightly to 0.64 percentage points.

The only negative contribution to the annual CPIH inflation rate came from furniture and household goods.

The contribution from food and non-alcoholic beverages eased for the 14th consecutive month, from a recent high of 1.76 percentage points in March 2023 to 0.17 percentage points in May 2024. This was the smallest contribution from this division since October 2021.

Figure 8 shows the contribution of owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax to the annual CPIH inflation rate in the context of wider housing-related costs. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) differs from the CPIH because it does not include these two components.

OOH’s contribution rose from 1.04 to 1.06 percentage points between April and May 2024, and is the main driver behind the increased contribution from housing and household services overall.

While the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) is our lead and most comprehensive measure of consumer price inflation, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is based on a harmonised methodology developed by Eurostat and allows for international comparisons to be drawn. For more information on the use cases for our consumer price inflation statistics, please refer to our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households: December 2023 article.

Figure 9 shows CPI inflation for the UK against the EU and selected Group of Seven (G7) countries. While the UK CPI is produced on a comparable basis with EU countries, the US Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measure differs in some respects (see Footnote 1 of Figure 9). The UK’s CPI inflation rate was below France (2.6%), Germany (2.8%) and the EU average (2.7%), and equal to the US (2.0%) in the 12 months to May 2024.

Figure 10 shows the annual inflation rates for the CPI all goods and all services series, together with CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPI). The headline CPI inflation rate is added for comparison.

Core CPI rose by 3.5% in the year to May 2024, down from 3.9% in the year to April 2024 and below its recent high of 7.1% in May 2023, which was the highest recorded since 7.2% in March 1992 in our Constructed historical series. The CPI all goods index fell by 1.3% in the year to May 2024, compared with a fall of 0.8% in the year to April. This is the largest annual fall since August 2016. The CPI all services index rose by 5.7% in the year to May 2024, slightly down from 5.9% in the year to April 2024 and down from 7.4% in July 2023, which was the joint highest rate (with May 2023) since March 1992.

As with the all-items annual inflation rates, the drivers of CPIH and CPI goods and services inflation are the same (with the exception of owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax, which are excluded from CPI). The drivers are discussed in more detail in Section 4: Latest movements in CPIH inflation.

Figure 11 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to the change in the annual CPI inflation rate between April and May 2024.

The easing in the rate into May 2024 was driven by downward contributions from eight divisions, partially offset by upward contributions from two divisions. The largest downward contributions came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, recreation and culture, and furniture and household goods. The largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution came from transport.

Although the sizes of the contributions differ from CPIH, the main drivers to the change are the same where they are common to both measures.

Figure 12 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPI inflation rate over the last two years.

The CPIH includes extra housing components not included in the CPI. This can result in the largest contributions to the annual CPI and CPIH inflation rates coming from different divisions. In May 2024, the largest-contributing division was the same, namely restaurants and hotels (0.81 percentage point contribution to the CPI rate) but housing and household services made a large negative contribution to CPI compared with a large positive contribution to CPIH. Falling gas and electricity prices resulted in the negative contribution to CPI, but in CPIH, these were more than offset by upward contributions from OOH and Council Tax.

Annual inflation rate

The most common approach to measuring inflation is the 12-month or annual inflation rate, which compares prices for the latest month with the same month a year ago. In any given month, the annual rate is determined by the balance between upward and downward price movements of the range of goods and services included in the index.

Consumer price inflation

Consumer price inflation is the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall. It is estimated by using price indices. For an overview of the range of indices available and their uses, please see our Consumer price indices, a brief guide: 2017 and our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households: December 2023 article.

Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)

The CPIH is the most comprehensive measure of inflation. It extends the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) to include a measure of the costs associated with owning, maintaining and living in one’s own home, known as owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH), along with Council Tax. Both are significant expenses for many households and are not included in the CPI.

Consumer Prices Index

The CPI is a measure of consumer price inflation produced to international standards and is based on European regulations for the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. The CPI is the inflation measure used in the government’s target for inflation.

The CPI is produced at the same level of detail as the CPIH in our accompanying dataset and accompanying data time series.

Retail Prices Index (RPI)

The RPI does not meet the required standard for designation as an accredited official statistic. In recognition that it continues to be widely used in contracts, we continue to publish the RPI, its subcomponents, and RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX). To view the all-items RPI, please see the data time series section of the inflation and price indices area of our website. The annual RPI inflation rate was 3.0% in May 2024.

The UK Statistics Authority (The Authority) and HM Treasury launched a consultation in 2020 on The Authority’s proposal to address the shortcomings of the RPI. From 2030 (at the earliest), as outlined in The Authority’s response to the consultation, the CPIH methods and data sources will be introduced into the RPI. Additionally, the supplementary and lower-level indices of the RPI will be discontinued.

Alternative data sources

We are undertaking a programme of transformation across our consumer price statistics, including identifying new sources, improving methods, and developing systems. More information about the project and our ongoing transformation plans can be found in our updated Research and developments in the transformation of UK consumer price statistics article, released on 1 December 2023. The latest release includes information on the transformation of consumer price statistics on second-hand cars and private rents, which we introduced with the February 2024 index, and our proposed approach to outlier detection in grocery scanner data.

As usual, we welcome your feedback on our work by email to cpi@ons.gov.uk.

Weights for 2024 consumer price inflation statistics

In line with usual practice at the start of each year, the expenditure weights used in compiling the consumer price inflation statistics were updated. For the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) and the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), they were calculated using national accounts household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE) data for 2022. This is in line with our standard methodology of using data lagged by two years.

It differs from the approach used over the last few years, when there were large changes seen in spending patterns because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Over these years, we adjusted the spending data so that the resulting weights were more reflective of the year immediately before use in consumer price inflation. More information on weights updating is available in our Consumer price inflation, updating weights articles.

The weights for the Retail Prices Index (RPI) were also updated for 2024 in line with the practice followed both before and during the pandemic period, with no additional adjustment to the spending data because of any coronavirus effects.

The weights used to produce the CPI and CPIH have historically been rounded to integers as parts per thousand of the all items indices. From 2024, we are now using unrounded weights in compiling the indices. The RPI continues to be based on integer weights.

Households and the cost of living

To assist individuals in understanding how the rise in inflation affects their expenditure, we have produced a personal inflation calculator. The calculator allows users to enter the amount they spend across either a reduced or a wide range of categories, to produce an estimate of their personal inflation based on those spending patterns.

Our shopping prices comparison tool shows how the average prices of items have changed over time. As a result, the number of average price series in Table 55 in our Consumer price inflation dataset has been reduced to two, covering petrol and diesel, and Table 54 has been discontinued. The average price data originally presented in these tables are currently still available as time series on our website and can be found using the four-character identifiers in Table 55.

On 30 May 2024, we published our quarterly Household Costs Indices (HCIs) for UK household groups bulletin. The HCIs reflect how different types of households experience changing prices and differ from CPIH and CPI, which are based on recognised economic principles and which provide an aggregate measure of inflation for household spending in the UK.

The HCIs are official statistics in development and this release included new estimates for January to March 2024. It was not possible for this latest release to update the weights in January and February 2024 in line with the standard methodology for consumer prices. This is because of delays in processing the underlying survey data and the need for further ongoing quality assurance. Instead, the most recent estimates have been compiled using the weights for February to December 2023. We expect the underlying survey data to be available in time for our next publication on 28 August 2024; therefore, we will revise at this point to incorporate updated weights back to January 2024.

Consumer price inflation historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988

On 18 May 2022, we published our Consumer price inflation, historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988 – methodology and Consumer price inflation, historical estimates and recent trends, UK: 1950 to 2022 article. These include new estimates of CPIH and improved estimates of CPI for the period 1950 to 1988. These estimates (published in response to user need for a longer series) are indicative and are for analytical purposes only. They are not intended for official use and do not constitute part of the accredited official statistic series.

Previously, in December 2018, we published our Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) historical series: 1988 to 2004 article. This series is also not an accredited official statistic, reflecting the historical uncertainty around the backcasts.

Pre-release access

The Bank of England was given exceptional pre-release access to an estimate of consumer price inflation data at 8:30am on Monday 17 June 2024 so that the data were available for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held on that day. The letters requesting and agreeing to pre-release are available in the Exchange of letters between the Bank of England and the Office for National Statistics for exceptional pre-release access to the Consumer Prices Index and Labour Market Statistics.

The members and officials of the MPC receiving pre-release access 46.5 hours before publication are:

• the governor
• three deputy governors
• the chief economist
• four external MPC members
• the governor’s economic assistant
• the governor’s private secretary
• the personal assistant (PA) to deputy governor monetary policy
• the PA to the chief economist
• an economic advisor
• the director of monetary analysis
• the head of MPC secretariat
• the deputy head of MPC secretariat
• two MPC secretariats
• monetary policy report (MPR) editor
• the executive director of the communications division
• the head of stakeholder and media engagement
• an HM Treasury representative
• an MPC co-ordinator (this is only applicable while meetings are held in hybrid format)

Methodology information

The consumer price indices are normally based on prices collected from outlets around the country, supplemented by information collected centrally over the internet and by phone. The figures in this publication use data collected on or around 14 May 2024.

Our Consumer price indices, a brief guide gives an overview of consumer price statistics, while our Consumer prices indices technical manual covers the concepts and methodologies underpinning the indices in more detail.

Our CPIH Compendium provides a comprehensive source of information on the CPIH, focusing on the approach to measuring owner occupiers’ housing costs.

Our Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics: July 2018 update includes information on the users and uses of these statistics, and the characteristics of the different measures of inflation in relation to potential use.

We illustrated our approach to Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households most recently in December 2023 using three “use cases”, and described how they relate to the measures published and under development.

The three cases refer firstly to the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) as our lead measure of inflation based on economic principles. They also refer to the Household Costs Indices (HCIs) as a set of measures that reflect the change in costs and prices experienced by different households, and the Retail Prices Index (RPI) as a legacy measure that is required to meet existing user needs. Our Shortcomings of the RPI as a measure of inflation article describes the issues with the RPI.