Consumer price inflation, UK: October 2024

• The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to October 2024, up from 2.6% in September.
• On a monthly basis, CPIH rose by 0.6% in October 2024, up from 0.1% in October 2023.

• The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% in the 12 months to October 2024, up from 1.7% in September.

• On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.6% in October 2024, up from being little changed in October 2023.

• The largest upward contribution to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates came from housing and household services, mainly because of electricity and gas prices; the largest offsetting downward contribution came from recreation and culture.

• Core CPIH (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 4.1% in the 12 months to October 2024, up from 4.0% in September; the CPIH goods annual rate rose from negative 1.4% to negative 0.3%, while the CPIH services annual rate was unchanged at 5.6%.

• Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose by 3.3% in the 12 months to October 2024, up from 3.2% in September; the CPI goods annual rate rose from negative 1.4% to negative 0.3%, while the CPI services annual rate rose from 4.9% to 5.0%.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) rose by 3.2% in the 12 months to October 2024, up from 2.6% in September and from a recent peak of 9.6% in October 2022.

Our indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates included in our Consumer price inflation, historical estimates and recent trends article suggest that the October 2022 inflation rate was the highest in over 40 years (the CPIH accredited official statistic series begins in January 2006).

The monthly CPIH rate was 0.6% in October 2024, up from 0.1% in October 2023.

The owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH) component of CPIH rose by 7.4% in the 12 months to October 2024, up from 7.2% in the 12 months to September. This is the highest annual rate since February 1992 in the constructed historical series. OOH costs rose by 0.8% on the month, up from 0.7% in October 2023.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% in the 12 months to October 2024, up from 1.7% in September 2024, and well below its recent peak of 11.1% in October 2022. Our indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates suggest that the October 2022 peak was the highest rate in over 40 years (the CPI accredited official statistic series begins in January 1997).

The monthly CPI rate was 0.6% in October 2024, up from being little changed in October 2023.

The main drivers of the annual inflation rate for CPIH and CPI are the same where they are common to both measures. However, the OOH component accounts for approximately 16% of the CPIH and is the main driver for differences between the CPIH and CPI inflation rates. This makes CPIH our most comprehensive measure of inflation. We cover this in more detail in Section 4: Latest movements in CPIH inflation and provide a commentary on the CPI in Section 5: Latest movements in CPI inflation. We also cover both CPIH and CPI in Section 3: Notable movements in prices, though the figures reflect CPIH.

The rise in the annual Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) inflation rate in October 2024 reflected offsetting contributions from the different product groups. There were upward contributions from eight divisions, most notably housing and household services (including energy), offset by downward contributions from three divisions, particularly recreation and culture.

Housing and household services (including energy)

Monthly housing and household services prices rose by 1.3% in October 2024, having fallen by 0.3% last year. The annual rate rose to 5.5%, up from 3.8% in the year to September. The rise in the divisional annual rate is mainly because of electricity prices, with a sizeable contribution from gas too. This reflects the rise of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in October 2024, described on the Ofgem website. Ofgem estimate that for an average household paying by direct debit for dual fuel, this equates to £1,717, a rise of £149 on an annual bill.

Electricity prices rose by 7.7% in October 2024, having fallen by 7.5% between the same two months last year. Gas prices rose by 11.7% in October 2024, having fallen by 7.0% between the same two months last year.

Figure 2 shows rebased price indices for electricity and gas from March 2021 to October 2024. By the first quarter of 2023 (January to March), electricity prices had peaked and were just under twice as high as they were in March 2021. Gas prices also peaked in the first quarter of 2023 but were just under three times as high as they were in March 2021.

Both indices fell between March 2023 and September 2024 before rising in October. Gas and electricity prices now stand at 36% and 22% below their respective peaks. However, gas prices peaked at a higher level than electricity prices. Therefore, although gas prices have fallen at a faster rate than electricity prices, they're still more elevated compared with their March 2021 level (around 88% higher) than electricity prices (around 56% higher).

Transport

Overall prices in the transport division fell by 2.0% in the year to October 2024, compared with a fall of 2.4% in the year to September. On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.1% in October 2024 compared with a fall of 0.2% a year ago.

The rise in the annual rate was mainly the result of upward effects from second-hand cars and from air fares, but this was partly offset by lower prices for motor fuels.

Prices of second-hand cars rose by 0.2% in October 2024 compared with a fall of 3.0% a year ago. On an annual basis, prices fell by 3.2% in the year to October 2024, compared with a fall of 6.3% in the year to September 2024. The annual rate has been negative for 15 consecutive months.

Although monthly prices for airfares in October tend to fall, the monthly price in October 2024 rose by 6.3%. This was the highest rise in October since monthly price collection began in 2001 and was driven largely by increases in European air fares. In contrast, the fall of 5.4% in October 2023 was the lowest since October 2016. As a result, prices rose by 6.6% in the year to October 2024, compared with a fall of 5.0% in the year to September 2024.

For motor fuels, the average price of petrol fell by 2.8 pence per litre between September and October 2024 to stand at 134.0 pence per litre, down from 155.1 pence per litre in October 2023. Diesel prices fell by 2.7 pence per litre in October 2024 to stand at 139.1 pence per litre, down from 162.2 pence per litre in October 2023. These movements resulted in overall motor fuel prices falling by 13.7% in the year to October 2024, compared with a fall of 10.4% in the year to September.

Recreation and culture

Overall prices in the recreation and culture division rose by 3.1% in the year to October 2024, compared with a rise of 3.9% in the year to September. On a monthly basis, prices fell by 0.1% in October 2024 compared with a rise of 0.7% a year ago.

The categories that provided the largest downward contributions to the change in the 12-month rate between September and October 2024 were cultural services, data processing equipment and package holidays. These were partially offset by games, toys and hobbies.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 1.9% in the year to October, up from 1.8% to September 2024. The annual rate of 1.9% is down from a recent high of 19.2% in March 2023, the highest annual rate seen for over 45 years.

Prices for this division rose by 0.1% between September and October 2024, the same rate as a year ago. The annual rate of 1.9% in October 2024 compares with 10.1% in October 2023.  

Vegetables (including potatoes) was the only one of the 11 food and non-alcoholic beverage classes to provide an upward contribution to the change in the annual rate of inflation between September and October 2024. The upward contribution occurred because prices rose between September and October this year but fell between the same two months last year.

Seven classes were little changed, and there were downward contributions from the other three classes because prices fell between September and October this year but rose between the same two months last year. The downward contributions came from:

• fish 

• oils and fats 

• coffee, tea and cocoa

Further details on the items that provided notable upward and downward contributions to the change in the annual rate can be found in the detailed briefing note.

Figure 5 shows the annual inflation rates for the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) series for all goods and all services, together with CPIH excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPIH). The CPIH inflation rate is added for comparison.

The core CPIH annual inflation rate was 4.1% in October 2024, up from 4.0% in September and down from a recent high of 6.5% in May 2023. This was the highest rate since November 1991, when it was also 6.5% in our constructed historical series.

The CPIH all goods index fell by 0.3% in the 12 months to October 2024, compared with a fall of 1.4% in the 12 months to September. The largest upward contribution to the change in the annual rate came from energy, particularly electricity and gas.

The CPIH all services index rose by 5.6% in the 12 months to October 2024, the same rate as in September 2024. The largest upward contribution to the change in the annual rate came from travel and transport services, particularly passenger transport by air. However, this was offset by other recreational and personal services, particularly cultural services.

Figure 6 shows the contributions from the 12 divisions to the change in the annual CPIH inflation rate between September and October 2024. These sum to the change in the annual rate between the latest two months, that is, the rise from 2.6% to 3.2%.

The rise in the rate into October 2024 reflected upward contributions from eight divisions offset by downward contributions from three divisions. The largest upward contribution came from housing and household services (positive 0.51 percentage points), principally from electricity (positive 0.26 percentage points) and gas (positive 0.20 percentage points). The largest downward contribution came from recreation and culture (negative 0.09 percentage points).

Figure 7 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPIH inflation rate over the last two years. The contribution of each category to the annual rate depends on the price movement in that category as well as its weight, which is updated annually.

The largest upward contributions to the annual CPIH inflation rate in October 2024 came from the housing and household services, restaurants and hotels, and recreation and culture divisions. The contribution from the housing and household services division is the highest since September 2023 while the contribution from the recreation and culture division is the lowest since January 2022.

Figure 8 shows the contribution of owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax to the annual CPIH inflation rate in the context of wider housing-related costs. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) differs from the CPIH because it does not include these two components.

OOH’s contribution rose slightly from 1.16 to 1.19 percentage points between September and October 2024, which was the highest contribution since at least January 2006. Electricity, gas and other fuels rose from negative 0.70 to negative 0.23. The overall contribution from housing and household services rose from 1.12 to 1.63 percentage points.

While the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) is our lead and most comprehensive measure of consumer price inflation, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is based on a harmonised methodology developed by Eurostat and allows for international comparisons to be drawn. For more information on the use cases for our consumer price inflation statistics, please refer to our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households: December 2023 article.

CPI inflation for the UK against the European Union (EU) average and selected Group of Seven (G7) countries is shown in Figure 9. While the UK CPI is produced on a comparable basis with EU countries, the United States Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measure differs in some respects (see Footnote 1 of Figure 9). The UK's CPI inflation rate of 2.3% was above that of France (1.6%) but below that of Germany (2.4%) in the 12 months to October 2024.

Figure 10 shows the annual inflation rates for the CPI all goods and all services series, together with CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (often referred to as core CPI). The headline CPI inflation rate is added for comparison.

Core CPI rose by 3.3% in the year to October 2024, up from 3.2% in September and below its recent high of 7.1% in May 2023, which was the highest recorded since 7.2% in March 1992 in our constructed historical series. The CPI all goods index fell by 0.3% in the year to October 2024, compared with a fall of 1.4% in the year to September. The CPI all services index rose by 5.0% in the year to October 2024, up from 4.9% in September but down from 7.4% in July 2023, which was the joint highest rate (with May 2023) since March 1992.

As with the all-items annual inflation rates, the drivers of CPIH and CPI goods and services inflation are the same (with the exception of owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH) and Council Tax, which are excluded from CPI). The drivers are discussed in more detail in Section 4: Latest movements in CPIH inflation.

Figure 11 shows how each of the main groups of goods and services contributed to the change in the annual CPI inflation rate between September and October 2024.

The rise in the rate into October 2024 reflected upward contributions from eight divisions offset by downward contributions from three divisions. The largest upward contribution came from housing and household services (positive 0.59 percentage points), principally from electricity (positive 0.33 percentage points) and gas (positive 0.25 percentage points). The largest downward contribution came from recreation and culture (negative 0.11 percentage points).

Although the sizes of the contributions differ from CPIH, the main drivers to the change are the same where they are common to both measures.

Figure 12 shows the extent to which the distinct categories of goods and services have contributed to the overall annual CPI inflation rate over the last two years.

The CPIH includes extra housing components not included in the CPI. This can result in the largest contributions to the annual CPI and CPIH inflation rates coming from different divisions. In October 2024, the largest-contributing division to CPI was restaurants and hotels (0.61 percentage point contribution to the CPI rate) whereas the largest-contributing division to CPIH was housing and household services. Higher housing rent prices this year compared with a year ago resulted in a positive contribution to the rate of CPI from housing and household services but not to the same extent as in CPIH, where there were also upward contributions from OOH.

Annual inflation rate

The most common approach to measuring inflation is the 12-month or annual inflation rate, which compares prices for the latest month with the same month a year ago. In any given month, the annual rate is determined by the balance between upward and downward price movements of the range of goods and services included in the index.

Consumer price inflation

Consumer price inflation is the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall. It is estimated by using price indices. For an overview of the range of indices available and their uses, please see our Consumer price indices, a brief guide: 2017 and our Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households: December 2023 article.

CPIH

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) is the most comprehensive measure of inflation. It extends the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) to include a measure of the costs associated with owning, maintaining and living in one's own home, known as owner occupiers' housing costs (OOH), along with Council Tax. Both are significant expenses for many households and are not included in the CPI.

CPI

The CPI is a measure of consumer price inflation produced to international standards and is based on European regulations for the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. The CPI is the inflation measure used in the government's target for inflation.

The CPI is produced at the same level of detail as the CPIH in our accompanying dataset and accompanying data time series.

Owner occupiers' housing (OOH) costs

OOH costs are the costs of housing services associated with owning, maintaining and living in one's own home.

RPI

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) does not meet the required standard for designation as an accredited official statistic. In recognition that it continues to be widely used in contracts, we continue to publish the RPI, its subcomponents, and RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (RPIX). To view the all-items RPI, please see the data time series section of the inflation and price indices area of our website. The annual RPI inflation rate was 3.4% in October 2024.

The UK Statistics Authority (The Authority) and HM Treasury launched a consultation in 2020 on The Authority's proposal to address the shortcomings of the RPI. From 2030 (at the earliest), as outlined in The Authority's response to the consultation, the CPIH methods and data sources will be introduced into the RPI. Additionally, the supplementary and lower-level indices of the RPI will be discontinued.

Classification Of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP)

The Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP) is the classification that underpins some of the main statistics produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The classification has seen a significant update in recent years to reflect changes in household expenditure patterns since its inception in the late 1990s. The UK currently uses the version of COICOP introduced in 1999.

To ensure the implementation of the new classification is done in a comprehensive and robust manner and while taking into consideration other ONS priorities around the transformation of our main statistics, we will aim to introduce the new classification (COICOP18) as soon as possible, as part of our wider plans to implement the updated System of National Accounts (SNA25). This, however, is likely to be later than the date for implementation in some other countries. We will share our implementation plan in due course.

For further information please contact cpi@ons.gov.uk.

Passenger transport by air

While we already publish a monthly index for passenger transport by air, from 26 March 2025 we will now also publish annual price indices and weights split by domestic flights, European flights and long-haul flights.

Alternative data sources

We are undertaking a programme of transformation across our consumer price statistics, including identifying new sources, improving methods and developing systems. More information about the project and our ongoing transformation plans can be found in our Research and developments in the transformation of UK consumer price statistics article, released on 1 December 2023. This includes information on the transformation of consumer price statistics on second-hand cars and private rents, which we introduced with the February 2024 index, and our proposed approach to outlier detection in grocery scanner data.

As part of our plans, we updated our transformation overview on 6 August 2024, as well as publishing our updated development plan to outline the rationale for our priorities and their potential impact.

As usual, we welcome your feedback on our work by email to cpi@ons.gov.uk.

Weights for 2024 consumer price inflation statistics

In line with usual practice at the start of each year, the expenditure weights used in compiling the consumer price inflation statistics were updated in March 2024. For the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) and the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), they were calculated using national accounts household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE) data for 2022. This is in line with our standard methodology of using data lagged by two years.

It differs from the approach used over the last few years, when there were large changes seen in spending patterns because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Over these years, we adjusted the spending data so that the resulting weights were more reflective of the year immediately before use in consumer price inflation. More information on weights updating is available in our Consumer price inflation, updating weights articles.

The weights for the Retail Prices Index (RPI) were also updated for 2024 in line with the practice followed both before and during the pandemic period, with no additional adjustment to the spending data because of any coronavirus effects.

The weights used to produce the CPI and CPIH have historically been rounded to integers as parts per thousand of the all-items indices. From 2024, we are now using unrounded weights in compiling the indices. The RPI continues to be based on integer weights.

Households and the cost of living

To assist individuals in understanding how the rise in inflation affects their expenditure, we have produced a personal inflation calculator. The calculator allows users to enter the amount they spend across either a reduced or a wide range of categories, to produce an estimate of their personal inflation based on those spending patterns.

Our shopping prices comparison tool shows how the average prices of items have changed over time. As a result, the number of average price series in Table 55 in our Consumer price inflation dataset has been reduced to two, covering petrol and diesel, and Table 54 has been discontinued. The average price data originally presented in these tables are currently still available as time series on our website and can be found using the four-character identifiers in Table 55.

On 28 August 2024, we published our quarterly Household Costs Indices (HCIs) for UK household groups bulletin. The HCIs reflect how different types of households experience changing prices and differ from CPIH and CPI, which are based on recognised economic principles and which provide an aggregate measure of inflation for household spending in the UK.

The HCIs are official statistics in development and this release included new estimates for April to June 2024. It was not possible for this latest release to update the weights for 2024 in line with the standard methodology for consumer prices. This is because of delays in processing the underlying survey data and the need for further ongoing quality assurance. Instead, the most recent estimates have been compiled using the weights for February to December 2023. We aim to update the weights in the second quarter (April to June) of 2025.

Consumer price inflation historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988

On 18 May 2022, we published our Consumer price inflation, historical estimates, UK, 1950 to 1988 – methodology and Consumer price inflation, historical estimates and recent trends, UK: 1950 to 2022 article. These include new estimates of CPIH and improved estimates of CPI for the period 1950 to 1988. These estimates (published in response to user need for a longer series) are indicative and are for analytical purposes only. They are not intended for official use and do not constitute part of the accredited official statistic series.

Previously, in December 2018, we published our Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) historical series: 1988 to 2004 article. This series is also not an accredited official statistic, reflecting the historical uncertainty around the backcasts.

Methodology information

The consumer price indices are normally based on prices collected from outlets around the country, supplemented by information collected centrally over the internet and by phone. The figures in this publication use data collected on or around 15 October 2024.

Our Consumer price indices, a brief guide gives an overview of consumer price statistics, while our Consumer prices indices technical manual covers the concepts and methodologies underpinning the indices in more detail.

Our CPIH Compendium provides a comprehensive source of information on the CPIH, focusing on the approach to measuring owner occupiers' housing costs.

Our Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics: July 2018 update includes information on the users and uses of these statistics, and the characteristics of the different measures of inflation in relation to potential use.

Strengths and limitations

We illustrated our approach to Measuring changing prices and costs for consumers and households most recently in December 2023 using three "use cases", and described how they relate to the measures published and under development.

The three cases refer firstly to the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) as our lead measure of inflation based on economic principles. They also refer to the Household Costs Indices (HCIs) as a set of measures that reflect the change in costs and prices experienced by different households, and the Retail Prices Index (RPI) as a legacy measure that is required to meet existing user needs. Our Shortcomings of the RPI as a measure of inflation article describes the issues with the RPI.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in July 2017. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled "accredited official statistics".