UK House Price Index: October 2018

This is a high-level summary of the UK House Price Index (HPI). For full details, including commentary, historical data tables and analytical tools, please see the main publication of the House Price Index, published today (9:30am, 19 December 2018) by HM Land Registry on the GOV.UK website.

The Office for Statistics Regulation designated the UK House Price Index as a National Statistic on 18 September 2018. A letter from the Director General for Regulation details the actions that were taken to meet the requirements as set out in the UK HPI assessment report.

House price inflation is the rate at which the prices of residential properties purchased in the UK rise and fall. The UK House Price Index (HPI) is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, Office for National Statistics and Registers of Scotland.

The UK HPI, introduced in June 2016, includes all residential properties purchased for market value in the UK. However, as sales only appear in the UK HPI once the purchases have been registered, there can be a delay before transactions feed into the index. As such, caution is advised when interpreting price changes in the most recent periods as they can be revised. Further information is provided in our revision policy.

Average house prices in the UK increased by 2.7% in the year to October 2018, down from 3.0% in September 2018 (Figure 1). This is the lowest annual rate since July 2013 when it was 2.3%. Over the past two years, there has been a slowdown in UK house price growth, driven mainly by a slowdown in the south and east of England.

The lowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 1.7% over the year to October 2018, up from a fall of 1.8% in the year to September 2018.

The average UK house price was £231,000 in October 2018. This is £6,000 higher than in October 2017 (Figure 2). On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK fell by 0.2% between September 2018 and October 2018, compared with an increase of 0.1% in average prices during the same period a year earlier (September 2017 and October 2017). On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK increased by 0.2% between September 2018 and October 2018 (series available in data downloads).

House prices in England grew slower than other countries of the UK, increasing by 2.4% in the year to October 2018, down slightly from 2.6% in the year to September 2018, with the average price in England now £248,000. House prices in Wales increased by 3.8% over the last 12 months to reach £161,000. In Scotland, the average price increased by 4.4% over the year to stand at £152,000. The average house price in Northern Ireland currently stands at £135,000, an increase of 4.8% over the year to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2018 (Figure 3).

At an English regional level, the North West showed the highest annual growth, with prices increasing by 4.9% in the year to October 2018. This was followed by Yorkshire and The Humber (4.4%).

The English region with the slowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 1.7% over the year (Figure 4). London house prices have fallen over the year each month since July 2018.

While annual house price growth in London is slowing, it still remains the most expensive place to buy a house at an average of £474,000, followed by the South East and the East of England, at £327,000 and £295,000 respectively. The North East continues to have the lowest average price at £128,000 and is the only English region yet to surpass its pre-economic downturn peak (Figure 5).

Falling house prices in London are driven primarily by inner London, for which annual house price growth has been consistently negative since January 2018. In the year to October 2018, house prices in outer London fell by 0.2%, its first annual fall since September 2011. Both inner and outer London seem to follow similar trends in house price growth, with changes in outer London tending to appear slightly after those in inner London (Figure 6).

The Bank of England November inflation report highlights that the slowdown concentrated mainly in the London market since mid-2016 is probably due to the area being disproportionately affected by regulatory and tax changes, and also by lower net migration from the EU.

Further analysis of the London housing market can be found in the Office for National Statistics article Exploring recent trends in the London housing market.

Data at the local authority level and other breakdowns can be found in the main publication of the UK House Price Index published by HM Land Registry on GOV.UK.

Details of the methodology used to calculate the UK House Price Index (UK HPI) can be found on the guidance page of the main release published by HM Land Registry on GOV.UK.

The UK House Price Index (HPI) Quality and methodology Information report contains important information on:

• the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data

• uses and users of the data

• how the output was created

• the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data