UK House Price Index: October 2019

• UK average house prices increased by 0.7% over the year to October 2019 to £233,000; this is the lowest growth since September 2012.

• Average house prices increased over the year in England, to £249,000 (0.5%); in Wales, to £166,000 (3.3%); in Scotland, to £154,000 (1.4%); and in Northern Ireland, to £140,000 (4.0%).

• The annual increase in England was driven by Yorkshire and The Humber (3.2%).

• The lowest annual growth rate was in London (negative 1.6%), followed by the North East (negative 1.1%).

UK annual house price growth rate has fallen

The latest house price data published on GOV.UK by HM Land Registry for October 2019 show that average house prices in the UK increased by 0.7% in the year to October 2019, down from 1.3% in the year to September 2019 (Figure 1). Over the past three years, there has been a general slowdown in UK house price growth, driven mainly by a slowdown in the south and east of England.

The lowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 1.6% over the year to October 2019. This was followed by the North East, where prices fell by 1.1% over the year.

The average UK house price was £233,000 in October 2019; this is £2,000 higher than in October 2018 (Figure 2). On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK decreased by 0.7% between September 2019 and October 2019, 0.6 percentage points lower than the same period a year ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK fell by 0.4% between September 2019 and October 2019.

House price growth in Wales increased by 3.3% in the year to October 2019, up from 3.1% in September 2019, with the average house price in Wales now at £166,000.

House prices in Scotland increased by 1.4% in the year to October 2019, down from 2.4% in the year to September 2019, with the average house price in Scotland now at £154,000.

The average house price in England increased by 0.5% over the year to October 2019, down from 1.0% in the year to September 2019, with the average house price in England now at £249,000.

The average house price in Northern Ireland increased by 4.0% over the year to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019. Northern Ireland remains the cheapest UK country in which to purchase a property, with the average house price at £140,000 (Figure 3).

At a regional level, Yorkshire and the Humber was the English region with the highest annual house price growth, with prices increasing by 3.2% in the year to October 2019 (Figure 4). This was followed by the North West, increasing by 1.4%.

London experiences the lowest annual growth rate

The lowest annual growth was in London, where prices fell by 1.6% over the year to October 2019, down from 0.8% in September 2019. This was followed by the North East, where prices fell by 1.1% over the year.

While house prices in London continued to fall over the year, the area remains the most expensive place to purchase a property, at an average of £472,000. The North East continued to have the lowest average house price at £129,000 and is the only English region yet to surpass its peak before the economic downturn (Figure 5).

Data at the local authority level and other breakdowns can be found in the full House Price Index (HPI) release, available to download from HM Land Registry at GOV.UK.

House Price Index (HPI)

The House Price Index (HPI) measures the price changes of residential housing as a percentage change from a specific time period (12 months prior or a base period, where HPI = 100).

House price inflation

House price inflation in the UK is the rate at which the prices of residential properties purchased in the UK rise and fall.

Non-seasonally adjusted

A non-seasonally adjusted series is one that includes seasonal or calendar effects.

Seasonally adjusted

A seasonally adjusted series is one that has been subject to a widely used technique for removing seasonal or calendar effects from time series data.

The UK House Price Index (UK HPI) is a joint production by HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, and the Office for National Statistics. HM Land Registry publishes the main publication of the UK HPI on GOV.UK today (9:30am, 13 November 2019). It includes full details, including commentary, historical data tables and analytical tools.

Data sources

The main sources of data used in the UK are HM Land Registry for England and Wales, Registers of Scotland, and HM Revenue and Customs’ (HMRC’s) Stamp Duty Land Tax data for the Northern Ireland House Price Index (HPI).

Methods

The standard average house price is calculated by taking the geometric mean price in January 2015 and then recalculating it in accordance with the index change back in time and forward to the present day.

The UK HPI applies a hedonic regression model that uses the various sources of data on property price and attributes to produce up-to-date estimates of the change in house prices in each period.

Quality

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the guidance page of the main release published by HM Land Registry on GOV.UK.

Extent of data coverage

The UK House Price Index (UK HPI) can provide a wide coverage of both cash and mortgage transactions and a large data source. Data are available at a local authority level as well as by property type, buyer status, funding statistics and property status.

Time lags

As sales only appear in the UK HPI once the purchases have been registered (based on completed sales rather than advertised or approved prices), there can be a delay before transactions feed into the index. Estimates for the most recent months are provisional and likely to be updated as more data are incorporated into the index. While changes to estimates are small at the headline level, these can be larger changes at lower geographies owing to fewer transactions being used. Caution is therefore advised when interpreting price changes in the most recent periods. Further information is provided in our revisions policy.