UK House Price Index: October 2023

• Average UK house prices decreased by 1.2% in the 12 months to October 2023 (provisional estimate), down from a decrease of 0.6% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to September 2023.

• The average UK house price was £288,000 in October 2023, which was £3,000 lower than 12 months ago.

• Average house prices over the 12 months to October 2023 decreased in England to £306,000 (negative 1.4%), decreased in Wales to £214,000 (negative 3.0%), but increased in Scotland to £191,000 (0.2%).

• Average house prices increased by 2.1% to £180,000 in the year to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023 in Northern Ireland.

• The North East was the only English region which saw an increase in average house prices in the 12 months to October 2023 (0.2%), while London saw the largest fall (negative 3.6%).

These estimates are provisional and are subject to revision. All statistics are non-seasonally adjusted estimates, unless explicitly stated otherwise.

The latest UK House Price Index (HPI) data published on GOV.UK by HM Land Registry (HMLR) for October 2023 show that average UK house price annual inflation was negative 1.2% (provisional estimate) in the 12 months to October 2023. This was down from the revised estimate of negative 0.6% in the 12 months to September 2023.

UK house price annual inflation has been generally slowing since July 2022, when annual inflation was 13.8%. The provisional estimate for the average UK house price was £288,000 in October 2023, which is £3,000 lower than 12 months ago.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic affected the supply of housing transactions for a period of time. The processing of new build properties has been particularly affected. To address this, in 2020 we introduced pooling for new build transactions for certain months in England and Wales, and in December 2023 we implemented a methodology improvement to the Great Britain model, which increased UK coherence and improved UK HPI statistics quality.

While transaction volumes remain affected, revisions may be larger than usual and users are advised to note the significantly greater uncertainty around new build prices. More information is available in Section 7: Measuring the data and the UK HPI Quality and Methodology Information.

The provisional seasonally adjusted estimate for UK residential transactions in October 2023 was 82,910, reported in HM Revenue and Customs’ (HMRC’s) Monthly property transactions statistics. This provisional volume estimate for October 2023 is 21% lower than the revised estimate for October 2022 and 3% lower than the provisional estimate for September 2023.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average UK house price decreased by 0.3% in October 2023, following a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% in September 2023.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the average UK house price decreased by 0.7% in October 2023, following a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% in September 2023.

The average house price in England decreased by 1.4% over the 12 months to October 2023 (provisional estimate). This is down from a decrease of 0.8% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to September 2023. The average house price in England was £306,000 in October 2023, which was £4,000 lower than 12 months ago.

The average house price in Scotland increased by 0.2% (provisional estimate) over the 12 months to October 2023, down from an increase of 0.8% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to September 2023. The average house price in Scotland was £191,000 in October 2023, which was little changed from 12 months ago.

The average house price in Wales decreased by 3.0% (provisional estimate) over the 12 months to October 2023, down from a decrease of 2.6% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to September 2023. The average house price in Wales was £214,000 in October 2023, which was £7,000 lower than 12 months ago.

The average house price in Northern Ireland increased by 2.1% (provisional estimate) over the year to Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023. Northern Ireland remains the cheapest country in the UK in which to purchase a property, with the average house price at £180,000.

London’s average house prices remain the most expensive of any region in the UK, with an average price of £516,000 in October 2023.

London is also the region with the lowest annual house price inflation, with average prices decreasing by 3.6% in the 12 months to October 2023. This is down from an annual inflation rate of negative 2.2% in the 12 months to September 2023 and is the lowest annual inflation rate since the 12 months to August 2009, when annual inflation was negative 7.0%. London’s annual inflation slowed in October 2023 because London prices fell more steeply between September and October 2023 than between the same months last year.

The North East continued to have the lowest average house price of all English regions, at £161,000 in October 2023.

The North East is also the region with the highest annual house price inflation and the only region where average house prices increased in the 12 months to October 2023. Average house prices in the North East increased by 0.2% in the 12 months to October 2023, although this was still down from an annual inflation rate of 0.3% in the 12 months to September 2023.

House Price Index (HPI)

The House Price Index (HPI) measures the price changes of residential housing as a percentage change from a specific time period (12 months before, or a base period where the HPI in 2015 equals 100).

House price inflation

House price inflation in the UK is the rate at which the prices of residential properties purchased in the UK rise and fall.

Non-seasonally adjusted

A non-seasonally adjusted series is one that includes seasonal or calendar effects.

Seasonally adjusted

A seasonally adjusted series is one that has been subject to a widely used technique for removing seasonal or calendar effects from time series data.

The UK House Price Index (HPI) is a joint production by HM Land Registry (HMLR), Registers of Scotland, Land and Property Services Northern Ireland, and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). HMLR publishes the UK House Price Index reports on GOV.UK (at 9:30am, 20 December 2023). The reports contain full details, including commentary, historical data tables and analytical tools.

Revision policy

It takes time for property transactions to be processed following purchase completion, so transaction volumes available for use in the UK HPI build over time. Each month, as more transactions are processed and more data become available for a given month, UK HPI estimates are revised.

Therefore, caution is advised when interpreting price changes in the most recent periods, since UK HPI estimates are provisional for the most recent months and are revised for 12 months (until the 13th estimate, which is final), in line with the UK HPI revision policy.

HM Land Registry (HMLR) transactions

In recent periods, the total transaction volumes available to calculate UK HPI estimates for the latest months have been lower than historically (see UK HPI Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) Section 2.2: Accuracy). This has arisen from a combination of total transaction volumes in England and Wales falling over the past year (HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) has reported an 18% fall in the 12 months to October 2023) and a reduction in the proportion of transactions processed by HMLR for the first estimate. The sample for the latest estimate is about half of usual volumes. We and HMLR are working together to resolve this, including seeking a greater balance between processing recently received applications and those that are older to help preserve the quality of UK HPI statistics. In the meantime, users should be aware that revisions may be larger than usual in coming months.

HMLR has increased the use of automation in application processing. This means that initial transaction numbers may be lower than pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic volumes; however, in the medium to long term, this will lead to higher volumes being processed.

We have temporarily changed the date we receive the transaction data from HMLR. As a result, we receive more transactions than those immediately seen in the published HMLR’s Price Paid Data datasets.

The processing of new build properties has been more affected than the processing of “old build” properties. To address this, we have pooled new build transactions for certain months in England and Wales since 2020. Usually, new build volumes have been pooled for six months, but we have extended the pooling period because of low new build volumes to pool for nine months. This means that:

• January 2023 includes new build transactions from December 2022 and January 2023

• February 2023 includes new build transactions from January and February 2023

• March 2023 includes new build transactions from February and March 2023

• April 2023 includes new build transactions from March and April 2023

• May 2023 includes new build transactions from April and May 2023

• June 2023 includes new build transactions from May and June 2023

• July 2023 includes new build transactions from June and July 2023

• August 2023 includes new build transactions from July and August 2023

• September 2023 includes new build transactions from August and September 2023

October 2023 has not been affected because the model for the first estimate does not use the new build indicator to predict property price because of the nature of their processing.

These changes might lead to larger revisions to published estimates than usual. Further information on how we usually process the new build properties can be found in HMLR’s Quality and methodology guidance.

Sales volumes

Sales are only available for inclusion in the UK HPI after property purchases have been registered (or submitted for registration in Scotland), so is based on completed sales rather than advertised or approved prices. Registration takes time, so there can be a delay before transactions feed into UK HPI estimates. Estimates for the most recent months are provisional and likely to be revised as more data become available and are incorporated.

The provisional UK HPI estimates for October 2023 are based on approximately 14,000 records for England, which represents roughly 19% of the provisional property transactions estimate, published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). UK HPI provisional estimates for October 2023 also include approximately 7,000 records for Scotland (83% of transactions) and approximately 1,000 records for Wales (22% of transactions). This represents the number of records that are available at the time of calculating the UK HPI and not the number of transactions that have taken place. As time progresses, more records will become available for October 2023 and will be used to revise the UK HPI in line with our published revision policy.

However, it should be noted that there are some coverage differences between the sales volumes used in the UK HPI dataset and the monthly property transactions statistics data. One reason for this difference is likely from misclassification between residential and non-residential transactions in HMRC data, as stated in their quality report, though HMRC take steps to reduce this measurement error. Another reason could be that residential property transactions where the buyer or seller is a corporate body, company or business are excluded from the HMLR data in the UK HPI, but included in HMRC property transaction statistics. Because of these coverage differences, the UK HPI and HMRC property transactions volumes are not directly comparable, and sales volumes in the UK HPI are likely to be lower than transaction volume estimates published by HMRC.

Data sources

The main sources of data used in the UK are HMLR for England and Wales, Registers of Scotland, and HMRC's Stamp Duty Land Tax data for the Northern Ireland HPI.

Quality and methodology

From 20 December 2023’s publication, a change was made to how property transactions for Great Britain with a missing Acorn classification are used in the regression model. This methodology improvement increases UK coherence and improves the quality of UK HPI statistics. More information is available in the UK HPI Quality and Methodology Information and in the Acorn quality assurance information.

More information on quality and methodology, strengths and limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in HMLR’s UK House Price Index guidance on GOV.UK.

Further information on strengths and limitations of the data can be found in Section 1.4 of HM Land Registry’s (HMLR’s) Quality and methodology guidance.