Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, UK: January 2022

• Private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK rose by 2.0% in the 12 months to January 2022, up from 1.8% in the 12 months to December 2021.

• Private rental prices grew by 2.0% in England, 1.4% in Wales and 2.6% in Scotland in the 12 months to January 2022.

• The East Midlands saw the highest annual growth in private rental prices (3.6%), while London saw the lowest (0.1%).

Private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK increased by 2.0% in the 12 months to January 2022, representing the largest annual growth rate since February 2017.

Growth in private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK remained broadly flat between November 2019 and the end of 2020. The beginning of 2021 saw a slowdown in rental price growth, which was driven by prices in London.

In the 12 months to January 2022, rental prices for the UK excluding London increased by 3.0%, up from an increase of 2.7% in December 2021. London private rental prices increased by 0.1% in the 12 months to January 2022, up from a decrease of 0.1% in December 2021.

London's rental price growth in January 2022 (0.1%) remains the lowest of any of the English regions. This reflects a decrease in demand as remote working has shifted housing preferences because workers no longer need to be close to offices. It also reflects an increase in supply, such as an excess supply of rental properties as short-term lets change to long-term lets. Further commentary on these movements can be found in Section 4 of our Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, UK: March 2021 bulletin.

The Association of Residential Letting Agents (ARLA) reported in their Private Rented Sector Report, December 2021 that the availability of rental stock in London has fallen by 71% in 12 months. The average number of new prospective tenants registered per member branch was 67, the highest on record for the month of December 2021.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (RICS') December 2021 Residential Market Survey reported that with a strong growth in tenant demand in December 2021, and a further decline in the number of new listings, over half of respondents to the survey anticipate further rent increases in the coming three months.

These supply and demand pressures can take time to feed through to the Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP), which reflects price changes for all private rental properties rather than only newly advertised rental properties.

In England, private rental prices grew by 2.0% in the 12 months to January 2022, representing the highest 12-month growth rate since April 2017. When London is excluded from England, private rental prices increased by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2022, up from an increase of 2.8% in December 2021.

Private rental prices in Wales grew by 1.4% in the 12 months to January 2022, down from an increase of 1.5% in December 2021.

Private rental prices in Scotland grew by 2.6% in the 12 months to January 2022, up from an increase of 2.3% in December 2021, and the highest annual growth rate since records began in 2012.

The annual rate of change for Northern Ireland in January 2022 (5.0%) was higher than the other countries of the UK. Northern Ireland data have been copied forward since September 2021; the next update to Northern Ireland data will be in the release published on 23 March 2022.

Focusing on the English regions, the largest annual rental price increase in the 12 months to January 2022 was in the East Midlands at 3.6%.

The lowest annual rental price growth was in London, where rental prices increased by 0.1% in the 12 months to January 2022.

Figure 6: London rental prices experienced larger peaks and troughs than other regions

Index of Private Housing Rental Prices percentage change over 12 months by English region, January 2007 to January 2022

Notes:

1. The light blue line shows England’s 12-month average private rental price growth.

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Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP)

IPHRP measures the change in the price tenants face when renting residential property from private landlords.

Administrative data

Administrative data are data that people have already provided to the government through day-to-day activities, for example, health records, social security payments or educational attainment information.

Coronavirus

We are working to ensure that the UK has the vital information needed to respond to the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on our economy and society. This includes how we measure the Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP). The price collection for this publication has not been affected.

Economic statistics governance after EU exit

Following the UK's exit from the EU, new governance arrangements are being put in place that will support the adoption and implementation of high-quality standards for UK economic statistics. These governance arrangements will promote international comparability and add to the credibility and independence of the UK's statistical system.

At the centre of this new governance framework will be the new National Statistician's Committee for Advice on Standards for Economic Statistics (NSCASE)*.* NSCASE will support the UK by ensuring its processes for influencing and adopting international statistical standards are world leading. The advice NSCASE provides to the National Statistician will span the full range of domains in economic statistics, including the National Accounts, fiscal statistics, prices, trade and the balance of payments and labour market statistics.

Upcoming Changes

In next month’s release (to be published on 23 March 2022) we will be updating the underlying index weights used in the IPHRP production process to aggregate the index. This is a standard annual update, methodology information can be found in the Index of Private Housing Rental Prices QMI.

Future developments

Following the Digital Economy Act 2017, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) gained access to Valuation Office Agency (VOA) private rental microdata. We aim to redevelop the IPHRP and private rental market summary statistics (PRMS) to produce mix-adjusted average rental prices that are comparable over time. We also aim to refine geography to lower geographic levels, to better meet user needs.

While we have been working hard to finalise the methodology, we will now need to spend more time ensuring the production system is developed on a strategic platform and is sustainable. This has resulted in our initial timetable being out of date. More information and an updated timetable for these developments is available in the Private rental prices development plan: February 2022. If you have any queries or feedback on these developments, please email hpi@ons.gov.uk.

Sources

The IPHRP is constructed using administrative data. This means that the index makes use of data that are already collected for other purposes to estimate rental prices. The sources of private rental prices are the VOA, Scottish Government, Welsh Government and Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE). Data for Northern Ireland also include data provided by Propertynews.com. Estimates are based on a known sample rather than a census.

The sources of the annually updated Index of Private Housing Rental Prices, UK: annual weights analysis dataset are the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG), Scottish Government, Welsh Government, NIHE and VOA.

The IPHRP's indices are updated on a monthly basis with the new monthly estimate. Data are indexed with January 2015 as a base year. Data for England are provided from January 2005, data for Wales from January 2009 and data for Scotland from January 2011. UK data are from January 2015.

Quality

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Index of Private Housing Rental Prices QMI.

Strengths

The Index of Private Housing Rental Prices (IPHRP) is constructed using large administrative sources, specified in Section 7: Measuring the data. Annually, over 450,000 private rental prices are collected in England, 30,000 in Wales, 25,000 in Scotland and 15,000 in Northern Ireland.

The index not only measures the change in newly advertised rental prices but reflects price changes for all private rental properties.

Limitations

The IPHRP is published as price indices, rather than average prices. It is also only published down to a country and regional level. While actual rental prices cannot currently be published in the IPHRP because of data access constraints, we are actively working to acquire the necessary data.

The IPHRP is released as an Experimental Statistic, and is subject to revisions if improvements in the methodology are identified. Results should be interpreted with this in mind.