Producer price inflation, UK: September 2019

• The headline rate of output inflation for goods leaving the factory gate was 1.2% on the year to September 2019, down from 1.7% in August 2019.

• The growth rate of prices for materials and fuels used in the manufacturing process was negative 2.8% on the year to September 2019, down from negative 0.9% in August 2019.

• Clothing, textiles and leather products provided the largest upward contribution to the annual rate of output inflation.

• Crude oil provided the largest downward contribution to the annual rate of input inflation.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published its response to the public consultation to collect users’ views on possible changes to the level of detail published in the Producer Price Indices (PPI).

We remind users of the planned changes to our PPI headline figure from net to gross in line with international best practice. In order to support users with the transition to the new headline definition, Section 6 includes a comparison between the existing measures of output and input PPI on a net and on a gross basis.

The factory gate price (output price) is the amount received by UK producers for the goods that they sell to the domestic market. It includes the margin that businesses make on goods, in addition to costs such as labour, raw materials and energy, as well as interest on loans, site or building maintenance, or rent.

The input price measures the price of materials and fuels bought by UK manufacturers for processing. It includes materials and fuels that are both imported or sourced within the domestic market. It is not limited to materials used in the final product, but includes what is required by businesses in their normal day-to-day running, such as fuels.

The use of core input inflation removes the more volatile indices of food, tobacco, beverages and petrol from our statistics.

Index numbers shown in the main text of this bulletin are on a net sector basis. The index for any industry relates only to transactions between that industry and other industries; sales and purchases within industries are excluded.

Indices relate to average prices for a month. The full effect of a price change occurring part way through any month will only be reflected in the following month’s index.

All index numbers exclude Value Added Tax (VAT). The Soft Drinks Industry Levy, introduced in April 2018, is also excluded. Excise Duty (on cigarettes, manufactured tobacco, alcoholic liquor and petroleum products) is included, except where labelled otherwise.

Each Producer Price Index (PPI) has two unique identifiers: a 10-digit index number, which relates to the Standard Industrial Classification 2007: SIC 2007 code appropriate to the index, and a four-character alpha-numeric code (series ID), which can be used to find series when using the time series dataset for PPI.

Figures for the latest two months are provisional, and the latest five months are subject to revisions taking account of late and revised respondent data. Revisions to seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated every month for the seasonally adjusted series. A routine seasonal adjustment review is normally conducted in the autumn each year.

Figure 1 shows input and output Producer Price Indices (PPI) over the past 15 years. Input PPI is driven mostly by commodity prices, which tend to be more volatile over time, compared with prices for finished goods (output PPI). Input PPI is also sensitive to exchange rate movements as roughly two-thirds of inputs into the UK manufacturing sector are imported.

The annual rate of inflation for goods leaving the factory gate (output prices) slowed from 1.7% in August 2019 to 1.2% in September 2019 (Table 1). The annual rate has remained positive since July 2016, but is the lowest the rate has been since September 2016.

The monthly rate fell to a negative 0.1% in September 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from a flat zero per cent in August 2019.

Figure 2 shows contributions by product group to the monthly and annual rate of output inflation and Table 2 shows monthly and annual growth rates by product group.

Eight of the ten product groups provided positive contributions to the output annual rate.

Clothing, textiles and leather products provided the largest upward contribution of 0.28 percentage points to the annual rate (Figure 2), with price growth of 2.6% on the year to September 2019 (Table 2). This is the highest the annual rate has been within this industry since November 2014 and the main contributor is wearing apparel.

Other manufactured products displayed a similar upward contribution of 0.27 percentage points to the annual rate, with annual growth of 1.8% in September 2019.

Petroleum products, and chemicals and pharmaceuticals were the only product groups to provide negative contributions to the annual rate for the third consecutive month, at 0.28 and 0.08 percentage points respectively.

Transport equipment and petroleum both provided the largest downward contributions to the monthly rate of output inflation, each at 0.05 percentage points. The monthly rate for transport equipment fell to its lowest point since March 2015 at negative 0.4% in September 2019 while petroleum has displayed two consecutive periods of negative growth for the first time since December 2018.

Figure 3 shows contributions to the change in the annual rate for factory gate prices (output prices).

The annual rate of output inflation slowed for the second consecutive month, with 7 of the 10 product groups displaying downward contributions to the change in the rate in September 2019. Petroleum products and food products both provided the largest downward contributions to the change in the rate, each at 0.16 percentage points (Figure 3).

The three industries that provided small upward contributions were: metal, machinery and equipment, clothing, textiles and leather products, and paper and printing media.

The annual rate of inflation for materials and fuels purchased by manufacturers (input prices) descended further into negative growth, falling 1.9 percentage points from a negative 0.9% to a negative 2.8% in September 2019, and the lowest this index has been since May 2016. This fall is driven largely by crude oil at negative 14.6% on the year, continuing five consecutive months of negative annual growth for this product group.

The one-month rate for materials and fuels purchased fell from negative 0.3% in August 2019 to negative 0.8% in September 2019 (Table 3).

The annual rate of inflation for imported materials and fuels was a negative 0.9% in September 2019 (Table 4), which is down 0.9 percentage points from August 2019. The monthly rate also slowed from 0.4% in August 2019 to a negative 0.7% in September 2019. Imported materials and fuels represent roughly two-thirds of overall materials and fuels (input prices) in terms of index weight.

The sterling effective exchange rate index (ERI) grew by 2.4% on the month to 76.6 in September 2019. This is the first positive growth in the monthly rate since March 2019 and the highest since November 2016.

On the year, the ERI displayed a negative 2.0% in September 2019 but is up from the two-year low of negative 3.4% seen in August 2019 (source: Bank of England).

All else equal, a stronger sterling effective exchange rate will lead to less expensive inputs of imported materials and fuels.

Figure 4 shows contributions by product group to the monthly and annual rate of input inflation and Table 5 shows monthly and annual growth rates by product group.

Four of the nine product groups provided negative contributions to the input annual rate.

The largest downward contribution to the annual rate in September 2019 came from crude oil, which contributed 2.79 percentage points (Figure 4) and had negative annual price growth of 14.6% (Table 5). The average price for crude oil at US $60 per barrel in September 2019 is 4.1% higher than last month but 20.3% lower than a year ago (World Bank). The base year effect of high annual inflation and a higher price this time last year has contributed to crude oil being at its lowest annual rate since May 2016.

Home food materials provided the second-largest downward contribution to the annual rate, at 1.06 percentage points with negative price growth of 7.7%. This was driven by domestic products used in the crop and animal production; hunting and related service activities, which fell to a negative 8.1% on the year and continues three months of negative growth.

The other downward contributions came from imported chemicals and fuel, at 0.23 and 0.12 percentage points respectively.

The largest upward contribution to the annual rate came from imported metals at 0.78 percentage points. Imported metal prices are up 9.9% on this time last year and the highest they have been since July 2018.

On the month, imported parts and equipment provided the largest negative contribution of 0.29 percentage points, with negative monthly growth of 1.6%.

Figure 5 shows contributions to the change in the annual rate of inflation for fuels and materials purchased by manufacturers (input prices).

There was a 1.9 percentage point decrease in the annual rate for input prices between August 2019 and September 2019, with eight out of the nine product groups displaying downward contributions to the change in the rate. Crude oil provided the largest downward contribution of 0.60 percentage points, with fuel making the second-largest negative contribution of 0.48 percentage points.

Imported metals made the only upward contribution to the change in the rate, at 0.11 percentage points.

Producer price indices (PPIs) are measured on two different bases, gross and net of inter-sector sales. Gross sector PPIs include products sold by one business to another business classified to the same industry sector. Net sector PPIs exclude (net out) products sold by a business to another business classified to the same industry sector. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) currently headlines with net sector PPIs, which include duty. We will move our headline to a gross sector basis excluding duty early in 2020, in line with international best practice.

Figure 6 shows net and gross output producer price indices (PPI) over the past 10 years. In September 2019, the net output PPI was 116.1 while the gross output excluding duty PPI was 117.2.

As shown in Figure 7, gross and net sector output indices display similar trends over time, although the gross indices show higher volatility, particularly at times of high inflation, either positive or negative. For net output PPI, the annual growth was 1.2% in September 2019, compared with 1.7% in August. For gross output excluding duty PPI, the annual growth in September 2019 was 0.7%, while in August it was 1.4%.

Figure 8 shows net and gross input PPI over the past 10 years. Likewise, the trends of the indices are similar, although the net input PPI appears more volatile than the gross input PPI. In September 2019, the net input PPI was 116.7 while the gross input PPI was 116.2.

Figure 9 also shows that the net input PPI series is more volatile than gross input PPI. For net input PPI, the annual growth was negative 2.8% in September 2019, compared to negative 0.9% in August; for gross input PPI, the annual growth in September 2019 was negative 0.8%, while in August it was 0.3%.

In addition to the data included within this statistical bulletin, the following detailed datasets are available:

• Aerospace and electronic cost indices time series
• Producer Price Index time series

Higher, lower and equal movements for each Producer Price Index are shown in the Producer price inflation records: monthly figures.

A summary of the revisions to PPI data are available in the PPI revision triangles:

• Producer price inflation revision triangle: total output 12-months (JVZ7)
• Producer price inflation revision triangle: total output 1-month (JVZ7)
• Producer price inflation revision triangle: total input 12-months (K646)
• Producer price inflation revision triangle: total input 1-month (K646)

Other important measures of inflation and prices include the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and the Services Producer Price Index (SPPI).

The Producer Price Index (PPI) Quality and Methodology Information report contains important information on:

• the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data

• uses and users of the data

• how the output was created

• the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data

If you would like more information about the reliability of the data, a PPI standard errors article was published on 18 May 2018. The tables present the calculated standard errors of the PPI during the period January 2017 to December 2017, for both month-on-month and 12-month growth.

Guidance on using indices in indexation clauses (PDF, 197KB) covers producer prices, services producer prices and consumer prices.

An up-to-date manual for the PPI, including the import and export index, is now available. PPI methods and guidance (PDF, 1.18MB) provides an outline of the methods used to produce the PPI as well as information about recent PPI developments.

Gross sector basis figures, which include intra-industry sales and purchases, are shown in PPI dataset Tables 4 and 6.

The detailed input indices of prices of materials and fuels purchased by industry (PPI dataset Table 6) do not include the Climate Change Levy (CCL). This is because each industry can, in practice, pay its own rate for the various forms of energy, depending on the various negotiated discounts and exemptions that apply.