UK trade: July 2023

• The value of goods imports decreased by £0.2 billion (0.4%) in July 2023 with a fall in imports from the EU partially offset by a rise in imports from non-EU countries.
• The rise in imports from non-EU countries was mainly the result of increased fuel prices, particularly a slight rebound in gas prices after the large fall in June.
• The value of goods exports increased by £0.2 billion (0.8%) because of a rise in exports to the EU, while exports to non-EU countries fell in July 2023.
• The total trade in goods and services deficit widened by £1.2 billion to £18.8 billion in the three months to July 2023, because of a larger fall in exports than imports.
• The trade in goods deficit narrowed by £2.0 billion to £50.8 billion in the three months to July 2023, while the trade in services surplus narrowed by £3.2 billion to £32.0 billion.

EU imports and exports

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented a data collection change affecting data on goods exports from Great Britain to the EU in January 2021, and data on goods imports from the EU to Great Britain in January 2022. We have applied adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU for 2021 to reflect this data collection change, which brought imports and exports statistics onto a like-for-like basis in 2021.

The full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU contains a discontinuity from January 2021 resulting from the move from Intrastat to customs declarations, as detailed in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2021 EU imports estimates article. We are continuing to work with HMRC to consider possible options to account for this discontinuity.

Separately, Staged Customs Controls (SCC) have affected data on imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to Great Britain in the first six months of 2022.

Staged Customs Controls

In 2021, the use of SCC allowed customs declarations to be reported up to 175 days after the date of import for imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to Great Britain. The UK government introduced full customs controls in January 2022, while July 2022 marked the first full month of data where delayed customs declarations submitted under SCC could not be included. Temporary arrangements still apply for imports of goods from Ireland to Great Britain.

We published an Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: further update on Staged Customs Controls article on 3 July 2023. This article presents our latest analysis and findings in our ongoing investigation into the impact of SCC on UK trade statistics.

We will continue with our analysis in collaboration with colleagues at HMRC, and we plan to include a finalised adjustment in our upcoming GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2023 and Balance of payments, UK: April to June 2023 releases publishing on 29 September 2023. This will represent a downward adjustment to EU imports of trade in goods data for the period from January to June 2022.

Total imports of goods in "current prices", which are not adjusted for inflation (explained in Section 10: Glossary), decreased by £0.2 billion (0.4%) in July 2023. Imports from EU countries fell by £0.5 billion, while imports from non-EU countries rose by £0.3 billion (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Total exports of goods increased by £0.2 billion (0.8%) in July 2023, because of a £0.5 billion rise in exports to EU countries, while exports to non-EU countries fell by £0.2 billion. The monthly balance of trade in goods therefore narrowed by £0.5 billion in June to a deficit of £15.5 billion.

Imports from the EU were £6.8 billion higher than from non-EU countries in July 2023, while exports to the EU were £1.2 billion lower than exports to non-EU countries.

Figure 1: Imports from the EU continue to be greater than imports from non-EU countries in July 2023

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, current prices, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to July 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Download the data

.xlsx

After removing the effect of inflation by calculating "chained volume measures" (explained in Section 10: Glossary), total goods imports increased by £0.2 billion (0.4%) in July 2023 (Figure 2). This was because imports from non-EU countries rose by £0.4 billion (2.1%) while imports from EU countries fell by £0.2 billion (0.8%).

Total goods exports rose by £0.5 billion (2.1%) in July 2023, after the effect of inflation is removed. Exports to EU countries increased by £0.6 billion (4.4%) and exports to non-EU countries remained stable.

Figure 2: EU exports rose in July 2023 in both current prices and inflation-adjusted terms

Imports and exports of goods, excluding precious metals, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, EU and non-EU, January 2020 to July 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Download the data

.xlsx

Goods imports

Imports from the EU decreased by £0.5 billion (1.8%) in July 2023. This was because of a £0.5 billion fall in chemical imports (Figure 3), with lower imports of organic chemicals from Ireland. Imports of fuels and material manufactures also fell in July, each by £0.1 billion. These falls were partially offset by a £0.2 billion increase in imports of machinery and transport equipment.

Imports from non-EU countries increased by £0.3 billion (1.4%) in July 2023. Imports of fuels rose by £0.6 billion, the result of increased imports of crude oil and gas from Norway. This increase was partially offset by £0.2 billion falls in imports of both miscellaneous manufactures and material manufactures, driven by reduced imports of non-ferrous metals from South Africa and other manufactures from China.

Figure 3: There was a slight rebound in fuel imports from non-EU countries in July 2023, after a substantial fall in June

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, July 2021 to July 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Download the data

.xlsx

Volatile fuel prices have influenced trends in the value of fuel imports since autumn 2021. After a substantial fall in June, the total value of fuel imported from non-EU countries increased by £0.6 billion (18.8%) in July 2023. This was partially because of higher gas prices in July, as shown in our Trade in goods: fuels other than oil data time series (Figure 4). In inflation-adjusted terms, imports of fuels from non-EU countries rose by a lesser £0.4 billion (13.0%)

Goods exports

Exports to the EU increased by £0.5 billion in July 2023, with a £0.4 billion rise in exports of fuels and a £0.2 billion increase in exports of machinery and transport equipment, partially offset by a £0.1 billion decrease in miscellaneous manufactures (Figure 5). The rise in exports of fuels was because of increased exports of crude oil to the Netherlands and France and refined oil to Belgium. Increases in mechanical power generators and mechanical machinery to the Netherlands were the main contributors to the rise in exports of machinery and transport equipment.

Exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.2 billion (1.3%) in July 2023. This decrease was mainly because of falls of £0.5 billion in machinery and transport equipment exports, £0.2 billion in fuels exports and £0.1 billion in exports of material manufactures. This was partially offset by a £0.7 billion increase in exports of chemicals, the result of increased exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products to the United States.

The decrease in exports of machinery and transport equipment was the result of lower exports of aircraft to Qatar and mechanical machinery to Singapore, the United Arab Emirates and the United States. The fall in exports of fuels was because of reduced exports of crude oil to China and refined oil to the United States.

Figure 5: Exports of goods to non-EU countries fell in July 2023, resulting from a decrease in exports of machinery and transport equipment and fuels

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, July 2021 to July 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Download the data

.xlsx

Early estimates suggest imports increased by around £0.1 billion (0.3%) in value terms in July 2023, while exports remained stable (Figure 6). Although price rises have affected trade in services in recent months, in July 2023 there was little difference between trade in services trends in value and inflation-adjusted terms. Monthly figures for trade in services for July 2023 are estimated from Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2023 data, using additional data sources. For more information on how our trade in services statistics are compiled, see our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).

The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index for July reported a slowdown in growth in the service sector. They said that business activity fell for hotels and restaurants as well as in transportation and business services. However, computing, IT and financial services remained resilient.

Figure 6: Imports of services are estimated to have increased slightly in both value and inflation-adjusted terms in July 2023, while exports remained stable

Imports and exports of services, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to July 2023

Download the data

.xlsx

In value terms, trade in services is at higher levels than before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Imports of services have increased by £5.9 billion (32.9%) compared with February 2020, while exports of services have risen by £5.1 billion (17.5%). After the effect of inflation has been removed, imports of services are £1.1 billion (6.0%) above February 2020, but exports of services remain £0.8 billion (2.9%) lower than February 2020.

Total imports of goods decreased by £1.8 billion (1.2%) in the three months to July 2023, compared with the three months to April 2023 (Table 2). Goods imports from the EU rose over this period while imports from non-EU countries fell. Exports of goods increased by £0.2 billion (0.2%) in the three months to July 2023, with a fall in exports to the EU offset by a rise in exports to non-EU countries.

Imports of services increased by an estimated £0.2 billion (0.2%) in the three months to July 2023 compared with the three months to April 2023, while exports of services fell by £3.0 billion (2.9%).

The total goods and services trade balance, excluding precious metals, widened by £1.2 billion to a deficit of £18.8 billion in the three months to July 2023 (Figure 7). Imports fell by £1.6 billion over this period, whereas exports fell by £2.8 billion. When removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £4.6 billion to £16.6 billion.

The trade in goods deficit in value terms, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £2.0 billion to £50.8 billion in the three months to July 2023. The trade in services surplus narrowed by £3.2 billion to £32.0 billion.

Explore the 2022 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data break down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it (desktop only) or use the drop-down menu.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.

3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out in Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and do not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

Download the data

.xlsx

You can also explore the 2022 trade in goods data by commodity, such as car exports to the EU, and UK tea or coffee imports. Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or select the levels with your digit or cursor to explore the data.

Download the data

.xlsx

Download the data

.xlsx

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.
2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.
3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

In accordance with our National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data in this release have not been revised and only include new data for July 2023.

Chained volume measures (CVMs)

CVM estimates are a "real" measure in that they have had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (known as the base year, which is 2019 for trade).

Current price measures (CPs)

These estimates measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time.

Implied deflators (IDEFs)

An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium, and it forms part of the commodity group "unspecified goods". Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as "net exports".

A full Glossary of economic terms is available.

The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, supply chain disruption and global recession, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in recent years. The monthly analysis shows short-term trade movements, but it is important to note that monthly data can be erratic, and therefore movements should be treated with caution.

Data sources

Data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source for this release. HMRC data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. For further details, see our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles.

Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. For further details, see our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI). 

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services, historically making up around 8% of total imports. Following suspension of the survey in 2020, the survey has now largely resumed, with a very small number of ports yet to have resumed interviewing. We advise continued caution when using these data until the IPS is fully operational. For further details, see our UK Trade QMI.

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices and have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. For further information, see our National Accounts articles: A brief explanation of non-monetary gold in national accounts.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources, including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK trade figures are produced by looking at country of dispatch , which records imports as coming from the country dispatching the shipments. However, trade figures can also be produced by country of origin, as is used by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). Users should be aware of the different accounting methods used and the resulting differences across trade figures.

Monthly trade in services data are taken from quarterly trade in services data and split across the months within that quarter through estimation. In months where we have a full quarter's data, we revise previous estimates of monthly values within that quarter.

For more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics, see our UK Trade methodology.

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the Office for Statistics Regulation's (OSR) reassessment of UK trade. As part of our engagement with the OSR team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining National Statistics status. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments, and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical, and definitional differences. For more information, see HM Revenue and Customs' (HMRC's) UK trade asymmetries. For Office for National Statistics (ONS) analysis on trade in services asymmetries, see our Asymmetries in trade data articles.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).