UK trade: July 2019

• The total UK trade deficit (goods and services) narrowed £14.9 billion to £2.9 billion in the three months to July 2019; this was largely caused by a narrowing of the trade in goods deficit by £14.9 billion to £29.3 billion, predominantly from falling imports.

• Imports of goods fell £14.1 billion to £119.5 billion in the three months to July 2019, as imports of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), chemicals, and machinery and transport equipment fell.

• Excluding unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) the total trade deficit narrowed by £3.7 billion to £4.7 billion, exports fell £2.5 billion to £159.0 billion and imports fell £6.2 billion to £163.8 billion in the three months to July 2019.

• Removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit narrowed £18.2 billion to £1.4 billion in the three months to July 2019.

• The total trade deficit (goods and services) widened £19.8 billion to £43.2 billion in the 12 months to July 2019, driven mainly by a widening of the goods deficit of £15.2 billion to £149.8 billion.

Data revision policy

In accordance with National Accounts Revisions Policy, trade in goods data in this release have been revised back to April 2019 when compared with our previous trade bulletin from 9 August 2019

Trade in services data within this release have not been revised compared with our previous release on 9 August 2019. Services data are processed as part of Quarterly National Accounts, which for this month’s release will include changes as a result of the Blue Book 2019. Services revisions that would have been expected to be taken on at this point will be included in the annual update of the UK National Accounts on 30 September 2019. Services data within this release therefore have a lower data content for Quarter 2 2019 than expected.

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF 72.8KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the reassessment of UK trade and are in the final stages of providing evidence to the Authority.

We are undertaking a programme of improvements to UK trade statistics in line with the UK trade development plan, including more detail and improvements now published to address anticipated future demands. On 24 October 2018, we published an article outlining our achievements so far and forward look with regards to the transformation of our trade statistics.

We continue to work with the Office for Statistics Regulation team to regain National Statistics status for UK trade statistics. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments and future plans. If you have any comments, please send them by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

UK trade data

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices, in other words, they have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.

UK trade data within our monthly trade bulletin are published at around a six-week lag because of the timeliness of source data. For example, the January 2020 publication will include data up to the end of November 2019.

Erratic commodities

Trade statistics for any one month can be erratic. For that reason, we recommend comparing the latest three months against the preceding three months, and the same three months of the previous year.

Oil and other “erratic” commodities can make a large contribution to trade in goods, but often mask the underlying trend in the export or import values due to their volatility. The “erratics” series includes ships, aircraft, precious stones, silver and non-monetary gold. Non-monetary gold can have a particularly large impact because of the large volumes of gold traded on the London markets. Therefore, we also publish data exclusive of these commodities, which may provide a better guide to the emerging trade picture.

Non-monetary gold

In line with international standards, the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS’s) headline trade statistics contain the UK’s exports and imports of non-monetary gold. Non-monetary gold is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Because a significant amount of the world’s trade in non-monetary gold takes place on the London markets, this trade can have a large impact on the size of and change in the UK’s headline trade figures.

Non-monetary gold is one subcomponent of the commodity group “unspecified goods”.

More information about the ONS’s recording of non-monetary gold is available.

Trade asymmetries

These data are our best estimates of bilateral UK trade flows, compiled following internationally agreed standards and using a wide range of robust data sources. However, in some cases alternative estimates of bilateral trade flows are available from the statistical agencies for those countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade. Differences between estimates are known as trade asymmetries and are a known aspect of international trade statistics, affecting bilateral estimates across the globe, not just the UK.

We are heavily engaged in analysis of these asymmetries, developing strong bilateral relationships with other countries to understand, explain and potentially reduce them. We have published a series of analyses showing comparisons and the relative strengths of different estimates, which users may wish to reference to help them better understand the quality of our bilateral trade estimates.

Blue Book 2019

Each year we produce an annual update to the UK National Accounts in the Blue Book and Pink Book and the associated releases. As already announced, the Blue Book and Pink Book 2019 consistent datasets will be published on 30 September 2019.

Details have already been provided on the scope in the article Latest developments and changes to be implemented in Blue Book and Pink Book 2019. Indicative impacts on headline gross domestic product (GDP) components for the years 1997 to 2016 were published on 27 June 2019 in the article Blue Book 2019 indicative impacts on GDP current price and chained volume measure estimates: 1997 to 2016. Indicative impacts on the balance of payments for the years 1997 to 2016 were published on 30 August 2019 in the article National Accounts articles: Detailed assessment of changes being introduced to balance of payments annual estimates, 1997 to 2016.

This year, due to the very demanding set of changes being put through in the annual update, we are not going to fully reconcile 2017 annual data, instead producing an indicative balance to allow further time for final quality assurance of the data. Consequently, the reference year and last base year for all chained volume measure (CVM) series will remain as 2016.

The total trade deficit (goods and services) narrowed £14.9 billion to £2.9 billion in the three months to July 2019, largely because of falls in goods imports. The trade in goods deficit narrowed £14.9 billion to £29.3 billion, as goods imports fell £14.1 billion to £119.5 billion and exports increased £0.8 billion to £90.2 billion.

The trade in services surplus narrowed slightly to £26.4 billion in the three months to July 2019. Services imports fell £1.1 billion, which was offset by exports in the three months to July 2019.

Figure 1 and Table 1 show the change to goods, services and total trade balances, along with exports and imports, in the three months to July 2019 compared with the three months to April 2019.

Figure 1: The trade deficit narrowed in the three months to July 2019, due largely to falling goods imports

Changes in the UK trade balances, exports and imports, three months to July 2019 compared with three months to April 2019

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. The arrow direction indicates whether a component has increased or decreased, while the colour denotes the impact the direction of a movement has on the trade balance.
2. For example, an increase in imports is denoted by an upward red (dark) arrow, as a rise in imports has a negative impact on the trade balance. An increase in the trade in goods deficit will be indicated by an upward red (dark) arrow as this would have a negative impact on the balance.

Download this image Figure 1: The trade deficit narrowed in the three months to July 2019, due largely to falling goods imports

.PNG (49.6 kB) .pptx (59.6 kB)

Falling imports of goods in the three months to July 2019 were largely because of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), chemicals, and machinery and transport equipment. Imports of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) fell £9.0 billion. Excluding unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) the trade deficit narrowed £3.7 billion to £4.7 billion (Figure 2).

Chemicals imports fell £2.1 billion in the three months to July 2019, driven mainly by medicinal and pharmaceutical products, which fell £1.4 billion. Imports of machinery and transport fell £1.7 billion, as imports of road vehicles fell £1.6 billion.

Falling imports in the three months to July 2019, following the increases in the three months to April 2019, are consistent with activity being brought forward ahead of the UK’s originally intended departure date from the European Union, but we are unable to quantify the effect of this.

Exports of goods increased £0.8 billion to £90.2 billion in the three months to July 2019. Exports of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) increased £2.2 billion, however, this was offset by a £1.2 billion fall in exports of chemicals.

The trade in goods deficit narrowed £10.8 billion to £8.2 billion with non-EU countries and narrowed £4.1 billion to £21.1 billion with EU countries in the three months to July 2019.

Imports from non-EU countries fell by £8.2 billion to £56.3 billion in the three months to July 2019, largely because of a fall in unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) of £8.9 billion. The fall was offset partially by a rise in imports of fuels, and machinery and transport equipment of £0.6 billion and £0.5 billion respectively.

Exports to non-EU countries increased £2.6 billion to £48.1 billion in the three months to July 2019, largely because of increases in unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) and miscellaneous manufactures of £2.2 billion and £0.8 billion respectively.

Imports from EU countries fell £5.9 billion to £63.2 billion in the three months to July 2019. Imports of machinery and transport equipment from EU countries fell £2.2 billion, driven mainly by a £1.5 billion fall of road vehicles. Chemical imports from EU countries fell £1.7 billion, driven largely by a £1.2 billion fall of medicinal and pharmaceutical products.

Exports to EU countries fell £1.8 billion to £42.1 billion in the three months to July 2019, this was largely because of a £0.8 billion fall in machinery and transport equipment, due to falling imports of other transport equipment. Figure 3 shows the changes in trade in goods exports, imports and balances with EU and non-EU countries between the three months to April 2019 and the three months to July 2019.

This section presents volume and price estimates of UK trade exports, imports and balances, using chained volume measures (CVMs) and implied deflators (IDEFs). A CVM is a “real” measure in that it has had the effect of inflation removed. An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Figure 4 shows the UK trade balances on a CVM basis, three-month on three-month from July 2017 to July 2019.

In volume terms, the total trade deficit (goods and services) narrowed £18.2 billion to £1.4 billion in the three months to July 2019. The trade in goods deficit narrowed £17.9 billion to £27.1 billion and the trade in services surplus widened £0.3 billion to £25.7 billion.

Goods imports fell £18.2 billion to £107.2 billion and goods exports fell by a lesser £0.3 billion to £80.1 billion in the three months to July 2019.

Services exports fell £0.8 billion to £67.3 billion while services imports fell £1.1 billion to £41.5 billion.

Falling goods imports were largely because of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), chemicals, and machinery and transport equipment, which fell £10.5 billion, £2.7 billion and £2.3 billion respectively.

The trade deficit narrowed more in volume terms than in current prices in the three months to July 2019. Import prices grew 3.4% on average in the three months to July 2019, compared with a 0.5% increase in average export prices. Import prices were driven by increasing average prices of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), fuels and chemicals, which rose 19.3%, 8.0% and 4.4% respectively.

Explore the 2018 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data breaks down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a particular country. Select a country by hovering over it or using the drop-down menu.

Notes:

For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.

These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.

Interactive maps denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB).

What about trade in a particular commodity in 2018? What percentage of UK car exports went to the EU? Where did UK imports of tea and coffee come from last year?

Use our interactive tools to understand UK trade of a particular commodity in 2018.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or click through the levels to explore the data.

Notes:

For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, please see Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.

These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases such as UN Comtrade.

Interactive maps denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 1.1MB).

The total trade deficit (goods and services) widened £19.8 billion to £43.2 billion in the 12 months to July 2019, mainly because of a widening of the trade in goods deficit (Figure 5).

The trade in goods deficit widened £15.2 billion to £149.8 billion in the 12 months to July 2019. Imports of goods increased £27.5 billion to £507.7 billion, while exports increased by a lesser £12.3 billion to £357.9 billion.

Rising imports of goods in the 12 months to July 2019 were largely because of unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), machinery and transport equipment, material manufactures and miscellaneous manufacturing, which increased £10.0 billion, £5.2 billion, £3.3 billion and £3.2 billion respectively.

The trade in services surplus narrowed £4.6 billion to £106.6 billion in the 12 months to July 2019, as imports increased £12.2 billion to £182.1 billion while exports increased £7.6 billion to £288.8 billion.

Figure 5: The trade deficit widened in the 12 months to July 2019, due largely to a widening of the trade in goods deficit

Change to UK trade balances, exports and imports, 12 months to July 2019 compared with 12 months to July 2018

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. The arrow direction indicates whether a component has increased or decreased, while the colour denotes the impact the direction of a movement has on the trade balance.
2. For example, an increase in imports is denoted by an upward red (dark) arrow, as a rise in imports has a negative impact on the trade balance. An increase in the trade in goods deficit will be indicated by an upward red (dark) arrow as this would have a negative impact on the balance.

Download this image Figure 5: The trade deficit widened in the 12 months to July 2019, due largely to a widening of the trade in goods deficit

.PNG (49.9 kB) .pptx (59.8 kB)

The £15.2 billion widening of the trade in goods deficit to £149.8 billion in the 12 months to July 2019 was mainly because of trade with non-EU countries (Figure 6). The trade in goods deficit with non-EU countries widened £15.3 billion to £56.2 billion, while the trade in goods deficit with EU countries narrowed £0.1 billion to £93.6 billion in the 12 months to July 2019.

The widening of the trade in goods deficit with non-EU countries in the 12 months to July 2019 was mainly because of imports, which increased £24.0 billion to £240.6 billion, while exports increased by a lesser £8.7 billion to £184.4 billion.

The largest contributors to the increase in imports from non-EU countries were unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold), machinery and transport equipment, and fuels, which increased £10.3 billion, £4.7 billion and £3.8 billion respectively. Increased exports to non-EU countries were largely in miscellaneous manufacturing and fuels, which increased £2.9 billion and £2.4 billion respectively.

Imports from EU countries increased £3.5 billion to £267.1 billion, while exports increased £3.6 billion to £173.5 billion.

On 31 July 2019, we published Modes of supply, UK experimental estimates: 2018. This release contains the first exploratory estimates of UK trade in services broken down by mode of supply, showing how services trade is conducted, in addition to what is traded and with whom. The UK is one of the first countries to have developed such estimates.

On 24 July 2019, we published UK trade in services by partner country: January to March 2019. Alongside this release we published a dataset containing UK total trade, goods and services by partner country up to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2019, providing a geographical breakdown of the most recent and consistent UK trade estimates.

On 15 May 2019, we published UK trade in services by industry, country and service type, presenting a new experimental dataset for trade in services by industry, country and service type on a balance of payments basis.

On 24 April 2019, we published UK trade in goods by industry, country and commodity: 2008 to 2017, presenting an updated experimental dataset for UK trade in goods by industry, country and commodity on a balance of payments basis.

On 29 January 2019, we published New frontiers in trade analysis, which summarises recent developments in UK goods and services statistics and examines, using our more granular trade in goods data, recent trends in UK trade of road vehicles.

On 24 October 2018, we published UK trade statistics transformation: achievements and forward look, which summarises our transformation of UK trade statistics, highlighting the delivery of new detail and analysis and the focus of ongoing developments.

On 24 October 2018, we published Estimating the value of service exports abroad from different parts of the UK: 2011 to 2016, which provides a breakdown of services exports by functional category from the nine English regions, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

On 24 September 2018, we published Why has the UK trade in goods deficit widened in real terms?. The article uses our new country by commodity data to look at the UK trade in goods deficit over the past 20 years and highlights which countries and commodities have been behind the growth of the deficit.

On 6 July 2018, we published UK trade in goods and productivity: new findings. This article describes a new dataset we have developed, which includes information from both the Annual Business Survey and HM Revenue and Customs’ trade in goods administrative data. It shows a strong association between trader status and productivity, highlighting the prevalence of trading behaviour across different types of business.

Supplementary quarterly data analysed by product according to the UK trade in goods by classification of product by activity (CPA 2008) are also available.

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources including several administrative sources, HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) being the largest for trade in goods.

This monthly release contains tables showing the total value of trade in goods together with chained volume measures (CVMs) and implied deflators (IDEFs). Figures are analysed by broad commodity group (CP, CVMs and IDEFs) and according to geographical area (CP only). In addition, the UK trade statistical bulletin also includes early monthly estimates of the value of trade in services.

Further qualitative data and information can be found in the attached datasets. This includes data on:

• response rates

• revision triangles

Detailed methodological notes are published in the UK Balance of Payments, The Pink Book 2018.

The UK trade methodology web pages have been developed to provide detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics.

The UK trade Quality and Methodology Information report contains important information on:

• the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data

• uses and users of the data

• how the output was created

• the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data