UK trade: September 2023

• The value of goods imports decreased by £2.9 billion (6.2%) in September 2023, with falls in imports from both EU and non-EU countries.

• The fall in imports was mainly the result of lower imports of machinery and transport equipment from the EU and reduced fuel imports from non-EU countries.

• The value of goods exports decreased by £0.9 billion (2.9%) because of falls in exports to both EU and non-EU countries.

• The total trade in goods and services deficit narrowed by £7.1 billion to £6.0 billion in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023, the result of a substantial fall in imports; the total trade deficit has declined steadily since Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022 when it stood at £26.9 billion.

• The trade in goods deficit narrowed by £7.0 billion to £44.2 billion in Quarter 3 2023, while the trade in services surplus widened by £0.1 billion to £38.3 billion.

EU imports and exports

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented a data collection change affecting data on goods exports from Great Britain to the EU in January 2021, and data on goods imports from the EU to Great Britain in January 2022. We have applied adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU for 2021 to reflect this data collection change, which brought imports and exports statistics onto a like-for-like basis in 2021.

Separately, Staged Customs Controls affected data on imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to Great Britain in the first six months of 2022.

Staged Customs Controls

In 2021, the use of Staged Customs Controls (SCC) allowed customs declarations to be reported up to 175 days after the date of import for imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to Great Britain. The UK government introduced full customs controls in January 2022, while July 2022 marked the first full month of data where delayed customs declarations submitted under SCC could not be included. Temporary arrangements still apply for imports of goods from Ireland to Great Britain.

The use of SCC in the first six months of 2022 led to some double counting in UK trade statistics. To account for this, we applied a downward adjustment to our estimates of goods imports from the EU for the period January to June 2022, as summarised in our article, Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2022 EU imports estimates.

Imports from and exports to the EU pre-2021

The full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU contains a discontinuity from January 2021 resulting from the move from Intrastat to customs declarations, as detailed in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2021 EU imports estimates article. We are exploring available data sources to assess whether it is possible to make similar adjustments for the period prior to 2021.

Total imports of goods in “current prices”, which are not adjusted for inflation (explained in Section 10: Glossary), decreased by £2.9 billion (6.2%) in September 2023. Imports from non-EU countries fell by £1.5 billion, while imports from the EU fell by £1.4 billion (Table 1 and Figure 1).

Total exports of goods decreased by £0.9 billion (2.9%) in September 2023, because of a £0.5 billion fall in exports to the EU and a £0.4 billion fall to non-EU countries. The monthly trade in goods balance narrowed by £2.0 billion in September to a deficit of £14.0 billion.

Imports from the EU were £5.6 billion higher than from non-EU countries in September 2023, while exports to the EU were £0.1 billion greater than exports to non-EU countries.

Figure 1: Imports fell substantially in September 2023, with exports falling by a lesser amount

EU and non-EU goods imports and exports, excluding precious metals, current prices, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to September 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

After removing the effect of inflation by calculating “chained volume measures” (explained in Section 10: Glossary), total goods imports decreased by £2.3 billion (5.7%) in September 2023 (Figure 2). This was because imports from the EU fell by £0.9 billion (4.2%) and imports from non-EU countries fell by £1.3 billion (7.7%).

Total goods exports fell by £0.6 billion (2.1%) in September 2023, after the effect of inflation is removed. Exports to the EU decreased by £0.4 billion (3.4%) and exports to non-EU countries fell by £0.1 billion (0.9%).

Figure 2: Imports fell substantially in September 2023 in both value and inflation-adjusted terms

Imports and exports of goods, excluding precious metals, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, EU and non-EU, January 2020 to September 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Goods imports

Imports from the EU decreased by £1.4 billion (5.3%) in September 2023. This was mainly because of a £0.9 billion fall in imports of machinery and transport equipment (Figure 3), while imports of chemicals and miscellaneous manufactures both fell by £0.2 billion.

The fall in imports of machinery and transport equipment is linked to subdued imports of cars. The semiconductor shortage that has affected global production is mostly over for the auto industry, according to S&P Global Mobility. However, while the semiconductor supply remains constrained, availability is more predictable, allowing car manufacturers to adapt their production schedules. This has resulted in imports of cars being spread throughout 2023, rather than showing their usual trade patterns.

Imports from non-EU countries decreased by £1.5 billion (7.4%) in September 2023 because of a £0.8 billion fall in fuel imports, resulting from lower imports of gas and crude oil from Norway. Additionally, imports of machinery and transport equipment, and miscellaneous manufactures fell by £0.3 billion and £0.2 billion, respectively.

Figure 3: Imports of goods from non-EU countries fell in September 2023, with a decrease in fuel imports

EU and non-EU goods imports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, September 2021 to September 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Volatile fuel prices have influenced trends in the value of fuel imports since autumn 2021. The total value of fuel imported from non-EU countries decreased by £0.8 billion (18.0%) in September 2023 (Figure 4). In inflation-adjusted terms, imports of fuels from non-EU countries decreased by £0.7 billion (20.1%).

Goods exports

Exports to the EU fell by £0.5 billion (3.1%) in September 2023, because of a £0.5 billion decrease in exports of fuels (Figure 5), mainly reduced exports of crude oil to Germany, Denmark and Poland.

Exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.4 billion (2.7%) in September 2023, resulting from a £0.4 billion fall in chemical exports. This was because of lower exports of medicinal and pharmaceutical products to the United States.

Figure 5: Exports of goods to the EU fell in September 2023, resulting from a decrease in exports of fuels and machinery and transport equipment

EU and non-EU goods exports by commodity, current prices, seasonally adjusted, September 2021 to September 2023

Notes:

1. HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) data collection changes following EU exit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

This release includes data for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023 for the first time, which are used to estimate monthly trade values for July, August and September, replacing our previous estimates for those months. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for more detail on how our trade in services statistics are compiled.

Early estimates suggest imports of services decreased by £0.1 billion (0.2%) in value terms in September 2023, while exports decreased by £0.2 billion (0.4%) (Figure 6). Adjusting for inflation, imports of services remained stable in September while exports of services fell by £0.1 billion.

The S&P Global's Purchasing Managers' Index for September reported a decrease in both output and new business inflows for the UK service sector. Financial services, consumer facing services and business services continued to fall from their strong levels seen earlier in the year, with only the tech and IT sectors seeing a notable increase in output and demand.

Figure 6: Exports of services are estimated to have decreased in both value and inflation-adjusted terms in September 2023

Imports and exports of services, current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, January 2020 to September 2023

In value terms, trade in services is at a higher level than before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Imports of services have increased by £7.9 billion (42.5%) compared with February 2020, while exports of services have risen by £9.8 billion (33.5%). After the effect of inflation has been removed, imports of services are £3.8 billion (20.4%) above February 2020, and exports of services are £3.2 billion (11.1%) above February 2020.

Total imports of goods decreased by £9.0 billion (6.1%) in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023, compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2023 (Table 2). Goods imports from both the EU and non-EU countries fell during this period. Exports of goods decreased by £1.9 billion (2.0%) in Quarter 3 2023, with a fall in exports to non-EU countries being slightly offset by a rise in exports to EU countries.

Imports of services increased by an estimated £2.0 billion (2.6%) in Quarter 3 2023 compared with Quarter 2 2023, while exports of services rose by £2.1 billion (1.8%).

Imports of goods from the EU decreased by £3.3 billion (4.0%) in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023 compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2023, as imports of machinery and transport equipment fell by £1.4 billion, imports of chemicals fell by £1.2 billion, and imports of material manufactures fell by £0.5 billion (Figure 7).

The fall in imports of machinery and transport equipment was led by lower imports of cars from Germany and aircraft from France. The fall in chemical imports was because of lower imports of organic chemicals from Ireland, and medicinal and pharmaceutical products from the Netherlands and France.

Imports from non-EU countries decreased by £5.7 billion (8.6%) in Quarter 3 2023, driven by a £2.1 billion fall in imports of machinery and transport equipment, resulting from reduced imports of aircraft from the United States and cars from China. Fuel imports fell by £1.8 billion, mainly from reduced imports of gas and crude oil from the United States. Imports of miscellaneous manufactures and material manufactures also both fell by £0.7 billion in Quarter 3.

Exports to the EU fell by £0.1 billion (0.3%) in Quarter 3 2023, as a £0.8 billion rise in machinery and transport equipment exports was mostly offset by £0.1 billion decreases across several commodities.

Exports to non-EU countries fell by £2.1 billion (4.2%) in Quarter 3 2023, driven by a £1.4 billion decrease in exports of machinery and transport equipment, and a £0.6 billion fall in exports of miscellaneous manufactures. A fall in car exports to the United States and mechanical machinery to the United Arab Emirates contributed to the decrease in exports of machinery and transport equipment.

Figure 7: Imports of fuels and machinery and transport equipment from non-EU countries decreased substantially in Quarter 3 2023

Changes in imports and exports by goods commodity group, excluding unspecified goods, current prices, seasonally adjusted, Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023 compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2023

Imports of services increased by £2.0 billion (2.6%) in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023 compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June). A £0.7 billion rise in imports of intellectual property services and a £0.5 billion rise in other business services were partially offset by a £0.6 billion decrease in imports of travel services (Figure 8).

Exports of services increased by £2.1 billion (1.8%) in Quarter 3 2023, primarily because of a £1.9 billion rise in exports of other business services.

The total goods and services trade balance, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £7.1 billion to a deficit of £6.0 billion in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2023 (Figure 9). Imports fell by £7.0 billion over this period, whereas exports rose by £0.2 billion. When removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £3.9 billion to £9.4 billion.

The trade in goods deficit in value terms, excluding precious metals, narrowed by £7.0 billion to £44.2 billion in Quarter 3 2023. The trade in services surplus widened by £0.1 billion to £38.3 billion.

Explore the 2022 trade in goods data using our interactive tools. Our data break down UK trade in goods with 234 countries by 125 commodities.

Use our map to get a better understanding of what goods the UK traded with a country. Select a country by hovering over it (desktop only) or use the drop-down menu.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are official statistics and no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, through the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.

3. This interactive map denotes country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out in Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and do not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

You can also explore the 2022 trade in goods data by commodity, such as car exports to the EU, and UK tea or coffee imports.

Select a commodity from the drop-down menu or select the levels with your digit or cursor to explore the data.

Notes:

1. For more information about our methods and how we compile these statistics, see our Trade in goods, country-by-commodity experimental data: 2011 to 2016 article. Users should note that the data published alongside this release are no longer experimental.

2. These data are our best estimate of these bilateral UK trade flows. Users should note that alternative estimates are available, in some cases, via the statistical agencies for bilateral countries or through central databases, such as UN Comtrade.

3. These interactive charts denote country boundaries in accordance with statistical classifications set out within Appendix 4 of the Balance of Payments (BoP) Vademecum (PDF, 2.9MB) and does not represent the UK policy on disputed territories.

In accordance with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, the data in this release have been revised from July 2023 to August 2023 for both goods and services.

Chained volume measures (CVMs)

CVM estimates are a “real” measure in that they have had the effect of inflation removed to measure the change in volume between consecutive periods, fixing the prices of goods and services in one period (known as the base year, which is 2019 for trade).

Current price measures (CPs)

These estimates measure the actual price paid for goods or services and are not adjusted for inflation. Unless otherwise stated, all current price data are provided in £ million and are seasonally adjusted.

Inflation

Inflation is the change in the average price level of goods and services over a period of time.

Implied deflators (IDEFs)

An IDEF shows the implied change in average prices for the respective components of the trade balance, for example, the IDEF for imports will show the average price movement for imports.

Precious metals and non-monetary gold

Precious metals include precious metals, silver, platinum and palladium, and it forms part of the commodity group “unspecified goods”. Non-monetary gold comprises the majority of this group and is the technical term for gold bullion not owned by central banks.

Trade balance

The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports or exports minus imports. When the value of exports is greater than the value of imports, the trade balance is in surplus. When the value of imports is greater than the value of exports, the trade balance is in deficit. The balance is sometimes referred to as “net exports”.

A full Glossary of economic terms is available.

The UK leaving the EU and the subsequent transition period, along with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, supply chain disruption and global recession, have caused higher levels of volatility in trade statistics in recent years. The monthly analysis shows short-term trade movements, but it is important to note that monthly data can be erratic, and therefore movements should be treated with caution.

Data sources

Data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) make up over 90% of trade in goods value and are the main source for this release. HMRC data collection changes following Brexit have affected statistics on UK trade in goods with the EU. Our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics articles provide more detail.

Data from the quarterly International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey make up over 50% of trade in services data. View our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) for more detail.

Data from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are the main source for travel services, historically making up around 8% of total imports. Following suspension of the survey in 2020, the survey has now largely resumed, with a very small number of ports yet to have resumed interviewing. We advise continued caution when using these data until the IPS is fully operational. View our UK Trade QMI for more detail.

Unless otherwise specified, data within this bulletin are in current prices and have not been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. In line with international standards, our headline trade statistics contain the UK's exports and imports of non-monetary gold. View our National Accounts article: A brief explanation of non-monetary gold in national accounts for more information.

Method

Trade is measured through both exports and imports of goods and services. Data are supplied by over 30 sources, including several administrative sources, with HMRC being the largest for trade in goods.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) UK trade figures are produced on a country of dispatch basis, which records imports as coming from the country dispatching the shipments. However, trade figures can also be produced on a country of origin basis, as is used by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). Users should be aware of the different accounting methods used and the resulting differences across trade figures.

Monthly trade in services data are taken from quarterly trade in services data and split across the months within that quarter through estimation. In months where we have a full quarter's data, we revise previous estimates of monthly values within that quarter.

View more detailed information about the methods used to produce UK trade statistics in our UK Trade methodology.

National Statistics designation status

The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK trade (PDF, 72.9KB) on 14 November 2014. We have now responded to all of the specific requirements of the Office for Statistics Regulation's (OSR) reassessment of UK trade. As part of our engagement with the OSR team, we are sharing our continuous improvement and development plans to support UK trade statistics regaining National Statistics status. We welcome feedback on our new trade statistics, developments, and future plans by email to trade@ons.gov.uk.

Trade asymmetries

Asymmetries can be caused by a range of conceptual and measurement variations between the estimation practices of different countries. Statistical agencies are likely to have different source data, estimation methods, and methodological, geographical, and definitional differences. More information on UK trade asymmetries is published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Analysis on trade in services asymmetries is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in our Asymmetries in trade data articles.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our UK Trade Quality and Methodology Information (QMI).