The UK national balance sheet estimates: 2016

The total net worth of the UK was estimated at £8.8 trillion at the end of 2015. This was equivalent to an average of £135,000 per person or £327,000 per household.

Estimates of UK total net worth more than tripled between 1995 and 2015, an increase of £6.0 trillion. This was equivalent to an average increase of £87,000 per person.

Dwellings remained the most valuable non-financial asset in the UK at £5.5 trillion, accounting for 62% of the UK’s total net worth at the end of 2015. Dwellings increased in value by £355 billion (7%) between the end of 2014 and the end of 2015.

The households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector provided the largest increase in the total net worth of the UK in 2015. The net worth of this sector increased by £406 billion (4%) over the period 2014 to 2015.

This annual bulletin provides estimates of the market value of financial and non-financial assets in the UK for the period 1995 to 2015. The national balance sheet is a measure of the wealth, or total net worth, of the UK. It shows the estimated market value of financial assets, such as loans and non-financial assets, such as dwellings. Market value is an estimate of how much these assets would sell for, if sold on the market. The data are used to monitor economic performance, to inform monetary and fiscal policy decisions and for international comparisons.

In line with other national accounts outputs and tables, estimates for 1995 and 1996 have been derived and introduced into this dataset; this increases the length of available time series.

The estimates in this release cover the period 1995 to 2015. All data referred to in this bulletin are annual estimates at current prices and include changes in prices as well as in the volume of assets.

These estimates are consistent with the 2016 UK National Accounts (The Blue Book). The dataset for this bulletin is available in the accompanying spreadsheet as well as in section 11 of the Blue Book. The sections on quality and methodology and background notes provide information on coverage, quality and how to use the data.

The institutional sector and asset breakdown of non-financial corporations, into public non-financial corporations and private non-financial corporations is not available from the net capital stocks dataset. As a result, these data and the totals that are derived from these data are not shown in the tables accompanying this bulletin.

As part of the continuous improvement process, there are revisions to the estimates for the period 2004 to 2014; further details are available in the background notes section.

Estimates of UK total net worth more than tripled between 1995 and 2015, with an increase of £6.0 trillion. This was equivalent to an average increase of £87,000 per person, from an average of £49,000 per person in 1995 to £135,000 per person in 2015.

Figure 1 shows that since 1995, estimates of UK total net worth increased consistently until the economic downturn in 2008 and 2009. From 2010 onwards, they have increased in almost every year, with the exception of a small decrease in 2012.

At the end of 2015, the UK was valued at an estimated £8.8 trillion, an increase of 6% (£493 billion) compared with the end of 2014, which continued the long-term pattern.

The estimated value of non-financial assets increased by £441 billion (5%) between the end of 2014 and the end of 2015. The increase in the value of non-financial assets was largely due to dwellings which contributed to 62% of the UK total net worth at the end of 2015.

The UK’s estimated financial net worth at the end of 2015 was minus £269 billion. This increased by £52 billion (16%) between the end of 2014 and the end of 2015. The increase in the financial net worth was largely due to a reduction in loan liabilities in the financial corporations institutional sector.

Figure 2 shows how the estimated total net worth of the UK is distributed across the 4 institutional sectors. This shows that since 1995, households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) had a large positive net worth in comparison with the other sectors.

Households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH)

The households and NPISH sector had an estimated net worth of £10.2 trillion at the end of 2015, making it the institutional sector with the highest net worth. This was equivalent to an average of £378,000 per household in 2015 compared with £367,000 per household in 2014.

NPISH consists of organisations such as charities, social clubs, churches or religious societies and trade unions, which provide goods and services to households either free or at non-economically significant prices.

The most valuable assets in this sector were dwellings (£5.2 trillion at the end of 2015; 51% of this sector’s net worth), “insurance, pension and standardised guarantee schemes” (£3.7 trillion; 36%) and “currency and deposits” (£1.5 trillion; 14%).

The estimated net worth of households and NPISH increased by £406 billion (4%) between 2014 and 2015 and was the main reason for the increase in the total net worth of the UK, which increased by £493 billion over the same period.

Over the past year the value of households and NPISH dwellings has risen by 7%, a faster rate than the post-downturn average of 5%. Much of this increase can be attributed to rising house prices, with the price of the average UK home rising by 6% over the past year, despite a 1% fall in the sales volume. Even though there was a decrease in sale volumes in 2015, there was a 4% increase in the approvals for house purchases to individuals, as well as a 2% increase in the stock of lending secured on dwellings.

Non-financial corporations

The non-financial corporations sector had an estimated net worth of minus £931 billion at the end of 2015, an increase of £175 billion (16%) compared with 2014.

Non-financial corporations produce goods and services for final or intermediate consumption expenditure and include businesses such as retailers, manufacturers, utilities and construction companies, amongst others. The non-financial sector is broken down into 2 sub-sectors: public and private.

At the end of 2015, the most valuable asset of non-financial corporations was “other buildings and structures” at £1,013 billion (46% of this sector’s total non-financial assets), which increased by £43 billion (4%) compared with £971 billion at the end of 2014.

The increase in the net worth of this sector was partly due to increases of £83 billion in the net value of “insurance, pension and standardised guarantee schemes” and £41 billion in the net value of “currency and deposits”.

Financial corporations

The financial corporations sector had an estimated net worth of minus £47 billion at the end of 2015, a decrease of £102 billion compared with 2014. This was the largest annual decrease in net worth for financial corporations since 2012.

Financial corporations are institutional units whose principal activity is the production of financial services and, for example, include banks, building societies and insurance companies.

The financial net worth of financial corporations decreased by £95 billion to minus £194 billion in 2015 compared with minus £98 billion in 2014 and was the main contributing factor for the fall in the net worth of this sector.

This was a result of decreases in the net value of several financial assets and liabilities. The largest decreases were £142 billion in the net value of “equity and investment fund shares and units” and £121 billion in the net value of “insurance, pension and standardised guarantee schemes” compared with 2014.

In contrast there was also a relatively large increase of £312 billion in the net value of “loans”. This was mainly due to a decrease in the liability value of “loans” between the end of 2014 and the end of 2015.

General government

The general government sector recorded negative total net worth for a fifth consecutive year in 2015 (minus £396.8 billion), despite seeing an improvement on the year (from minus £410.7 billion in 2014).

Central government continues to be the driver of the government’s negative balance, however, its further decline in net worth in 2015 was more than offset by a rise in the net worth of local government.

General government includes government departments and agencies, local authorities, the armed forces and the police, amongst other public bodies. The general government sector is broken down into 2 sub-sectors: central and local.

General government’s estimated financial net worth decreased by £32 billion (2%) to minus £1.5 trillion at the end of 2015. The general government sector holds most of its liabilities in “debt securities”, which reflects the fact that government tends to raise liquidity through government bonds.

The most valuable non-financial asset of general government was “other buildings and structures” at £852 billion at the end of 2015; this accounted for 77% of this sector’s total non-financial assets.

Central government’s net worth is estimated to have declined in every year since the downturn in 2008 and 2009. Figure 3 shows that the estimated net worth of the central government sub-sector was minus £982 billion at the end of 2015. This was a decrease of 2% on the previous year and over 8 times less than its net worth in the pre-downturn period of 2007 (minus £119 billion).

Local government’s estimated net worth has increased gradually since 1995 with the exception of decreases in 2002 as well as in 2008 and 2009, during the economic downturn. At the end of 2015, the estimated net worth of the local government sub-sector was £586 billion; “other buildings and structures” accounted for over 80% of this sector’s net worth.

In this release, the focus is placed on the analysis of 6 types of assets.

Non-financial assets:

• dwellings
• other buildings and structures
• machinery, equipment and weapons systems

Financial assets and liabilities:

• equity and investment fund shares and units
• financial derivatives and employee stock options
• loans

Non-financial assets

Dwellings

Figure 4 shows that dwellings remained the most valuable non-financial asset in the UK at the end of 2015. They steadily increased in value between 1995 and 2015, except for a decrease in 2008. The value of dwellings was estimated at £5.5 trillion at the end of 2015, over 4 times their estimated value in 1995 (£1.2 trillion). The households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector accounts for 96% of this asset’s value. The increase in the value of dwellings was largely due to increases in house prices rather than a change in the volume of dwellings. Between the end of 1995 and the end of 2015, the simple average house price of all dwellings in the UK increased by 319%, in comparison with the value of dwellings on the national balance sheet which increased by 357%.

Other buildings and structures

The estimated value of “other buildings and structures” has increased each year since 1995 with the exception of 2008 and 2009. These assets have more than doubled in value since 1995, from £862 billion to £2,045 billion at the end of 2015. The value of these assets accounted for 23% of the UK’s total net worth at the end of 2015.

“Other buildings and structures” includes non-residential buildings such as warehouses, as well as other structures such as roads, railways, pipelines, bridges and sports stadiums.

Machinery, equipment and weapons systems

This asset group had an estimated net worth of £860 billion at the end of 2015, an increase of over 80% compared with the 1995 value of £471 billion. Although this asset group has increased in value, it has grown more slowly over the period 1995 to 2015 than the other groups of assets in Figure 4. The value of these assets accounted for 10% of the UK’s total net worth at the end of 2015.

This asset group includes “transport equipment”, “information and communication technology (ICT) equipment” and “other machinery, equipment and weapons systems”.

Financial assets and liabilities

Table 1 shows the value of financial assets and liabilities and the corresponding net value of each at the end of 2015.

Equity and investment fund shares and units

Equity and investment fund shares and units relate to the issuance and holdings of listed and unlisted shares, other UK equity and mutual funds units and shares. At the end of 2015, the estimated net worth of these assets was £115 billion, a decrease of over 50% compared with its value at the end of 2014, continuing the decreases in net worth since 2012. The decreases between 2012 and 2015 in the net worth of this asset are a result of changes in both the asset and liability values in the private non-financial corporations and financial corporations sectors.

Financial derivatives and employee stock options

A derivative is a contract between 2 parties whose value is derived from 1 or more underlying assets, commodities or currency. Derivatives are in general either used to hedge risks or to speculate on changes in prices. Activity in these types of financial products often increases at times of uncertainty with the financial markets.

The estimated net worth of “financial derivatives and employee stock options” was minus £11 billion at the end of 2015. While the net worth was comparatively small, the level of both assets and liabilities decreased by 25% (£1.5 trillion) between the end of 2014 and the end of 2015. Much of this decrease took place in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 due to a decrease in interest rate swaps.

Loans

The estimated net worth of “loans” increased by £240 billion (89%) to minus £29 billion at the end of 2015 compared with minus £269 billion at the end of 2014. This was the largest annual increase since 2007. This is a result of the largest annual decrease in the liability value for this asset over the period 1995 to 2015 in the financial corporations sector.

In this section, the net worth of the UK is compared with the net worth of the other G7 countries. Estimates for non-produced assets and inventories and hence net worth, were not available for all the countries shown. Figures 5 and 6 therefore show the produced fixed assets for these countries.

Figure 5 shows that all G7 countries returned to positive annual growth after the economic downturn of 2008 and 2009. At the end of 2014, the UK, Canada and the US were showing the strongest annual growth in produced fixed assets at 8.4%, 6.0% and 4.1% respectively. Italy is the only country with negative growth of 0.5% at the end of 2014.

In comparison with the other G7 countries (excluding Italy) over the period 1996 to 2014, the UK had the highest average growth rate of produced fixed assets at 6.2%. This compares with Japan which had the lowest average growth rate of the G7 countries (excluding Italy) at 0.9%. In 2008, the UK had the largest annual negative growth rate in the G7 over the period 1996 to 2014, mainly caused by a decrease in the estimated value of UK dwellings.

In Figures 6 and 7, the focus is placed on the analysis at the end of 2014 as data for all of the G7 countries are only available up to this period at the time of this publication.

Figure 6 shows the value of produced fixed assets of the G7 economies per person in pounds sterling at the end of 2014. The UK had the highest estimate per person, at £129,000 at the end of 2014 whilst Japan had the lowest, at £66,000 per person at the end of 2014.

A positive financial net worth means that the values of the financial assets outweigh the value of the liabilities. Figure 7 shows the financial net worth of the G7 economies at the end of 2014 converted to pounds sterling. Japan had the highest financial net worth within the G7 at £1.9 trillion, whilst the UK and Italy had the lowest financial net worth within the G7, both at minus £0.3 trillion, meaning that their total liabilities are greater than their total financial assets.

Short guide to the national balance sheet

The national balance sheet data presents the estimated market value of financial and non-financial assets, that is, what these assets would realise if sold at market value.

Non-financial assets include both produced and non-produced assets.

Produced non-financial assets include:

• dwellings
• other buildings and structures
• machinery and equipment
• weapons systems
• cultivated biological resources
• transport equipment
• intellectual property products, such as computer software and databases and research and development
• inventories

Non-produced non-financial assets include:

• natural resources
• contracts, leases and licences, such as cherished or personalised vehicle registration plates

Financial assets and liabilities include:

• means of payment, such as currency
• financial claims, such as loans
• economic assets, which are close to financial claims in nature, such as shares

The net worth estimates of the UK economy exclude “human capital”, that is, the value of knowledge, skills and know-how, and “environmental or natural capital”. Further information on human capital is available from our website.

Data sources

Data sources for the compilation of the national balance sheet include:

• administrative data from other government departments and agencies
• annual reports of public corporations and major businesses
• industry publications
• Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy report on local authority assets
• ONS’s National Balance Sheet survey

Where non-financial asset market valuations are not readily available, we use a proxy based on the UK net capital stocks data, modelled in the perpetual inventory method (PIM). You can find further information about the PIM in the quality and methodology section of the Capital stocks, consumption of fixed capital, 2016 statistical bulletin.

For central government, data are taken from returns made by government departments to HM Treasury.

The Non-financial balance sheet Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report contains important information on:

• the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data
• users and uses of the data
• how the output was created
• the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data

What quality assurance has taken place?

Quality assurance checks have included detailed analysis at all levels of the data, to guarantee integrity and consistency.

To summarise, the quality assurance process for the publication included:

• thorough dataset analysis, ensuring that the data are correct at the lowest level of detail
• publication analysis – detailed checking of all published tables for accuracy and to better tailor the material to serve the user
• economic analysis, to review what the data are showing at a macroeconomic level and to see how the proposed estimates compare with existing economic figures

Use of the data

The national balance sheet estimates are used in private and public sector institutions, the Statistical Office of the European Communities (Eurostat), Bank of England and Her Majesty’s Treasury. The data are used to monitor economic performance, inform monetary and fiscal policy decisions as well as for international comparisons.

Future work plan

There are a number of improvements planned for estimates of the national balance sheet. We have listed them in this section and included these improvements in our future development plan for non-financial assets and will keep you informed as this work progresses.

Introduction of the non-produced asset of land

In Blue Book 2017, we will introduce data for the non-produced, non-financial asset “land” into the national balance sheet. At present the value of land is included within the value of the produced assets of dwellings, other buildings and structures, and cultivated biological resources. Whilst there will be some change to total net worth, the main impact will be to move some of the UK’s net worth from produced non-financial assets to non-produced, non-financial assets. This change will provide you with more detail in the national balance sheet as well as meeting international requirements for data on “land”. We will provide further details of this change and its impact for Blue Book 2017.

Introducing the new UK House Price Index (HPI)

In June 2016, the UK House Price Index (HPI) replaced the previous house price indices separately published by the Land Registry and the Office for National Statistics. We plan to introduce the new index into calculations for Blue Book 2017. The average price in the new index is lower than the previous average price of the ONS index. It is therefore likely that this change will reduce the UK’s net worth. We will provide further details of this change and its impact for Blue Book 2017.

The production of estimates for general, central and local government using a new methodology

As a consequence of timetable constraints, we have has been unable to fully implement the new methodology to produce estimates using the PIM for the central and local government sub-sectors. As a result, the sector totals used in the previous publication in 2010 have been maintained and the estimates for 2010 onwards have been forecast for these sectors based on historic trends. A main input to the estimates of capital stocks and the consumption of fixed capital are gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) investment estimates which come from sample surveys and administrative sources. This means that any updates to GFCF for these sectors are not reflected in this release. All other sectors have been produced using the new methods. Due to other development priorities, it has not been possible to improve the methods for calculation of these sectors.

This only has an impact on the following assets which have net capital stock as their source: ICT equipment, other machinery, equipment and weapons systems, and intellectual property products.

Providing an asset breakdown for institutional sectors

It is not at present possible to provide an asset breakdown for non-financial corporations, into public non-financial corporations and private non-financial corporations due to the requirement for additional quality assurance of the asset breakdowns.

This only has an impact on the following assets which have net capital stock as their source: ICT equipment, other machinery, equipment and weapons systems, and intellectual property products.

Fully introducing new data for non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) and public non-financial corporations

NPISH data from the perpetual inventory model (PIM) were fixed at an early stage of the production process between 1997 and 2012 due to deliveries required to meet the Blue Book 2014 timetable. NPISH estimates have not been re-calculated by the PIM since this time, apart from the year 2013; they have been forecast since. Public non-financial corporations data from the PIM was fixed following the Blue Book 2014 publication and forecast since this time. Therefore these institutional sectors are inconsistent with outputs for other non-government sectors and updates to GFCF for these sectors are not reflected in this release.

This only has an impact on the following assets which have net capital stock as their source: ICT equipment, other machinery, equipment and weapons systems, and intellectual property products.

Comparability

The UK produces the national balance sheet to the international standards set out in the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010).

Both Eurostat and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) hold internationally comparable data for both financial and non-financial balance sheets. When comparing between countries, you should ensure that you are comparing figures in the same currency and that there are no definitional differences noted.

Some of the data on Eurostat and OECD websites for non-financial assets will differ from the data in this bulletin. This is because of the needs of different users for both consistency with previous publications and for international comparisons. The data within this bulletin are consistent with previous publications in using a range of data sources to estimate some non-financial assets. The data on the Eurostat and OECD websites use net capital stock data to estimate all of the produced non-financial assets except inventories. There are differences in data for the following assets: dwellings, buildings other than dwellings, other structures, transport equipment and cultivated biological resources.

The Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS) is a longitudinal household survey, which gathers information on, among other things, level of savings and debt, saving for retirement, how wealth is distributed among households and factors that affect financial planning. WAS produces estimates of the wealth of the household sector and of property wealth within this sector. The national balance sheet (NBS) produces estimates for the households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector which includes data on dwellings.

These estimates are different because:

• NBS shows data for the UK, whereas WAS only covers Great Britain
• WAS uses a sample survey of households, whereas NBS uses administrative data sources, for example, on house prices
• the estimate of property prices may be higher in the WAS as the price is based on the perception of the person answering the survey compared with actual selling prices which are used in the NBS estimates
• WAS includes overseas property and land owned by Great Britain residents, whereas NBS only covers dwellings and assets in the UK
• WAS includes the estimated value of the contents of houses, such as washing machines, computers, furnishings, whereas this is not included in NBS
• WAS estimates data for informal financial arrangements, such as loans between family members, which are not included in NBS

More information on the technical details of the Wealth and Assets Survey as well as the latest publication of Wealth in Great Britain is available on our website.

The International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) were introduced from 2005 onwards in the UK. IFRS is the legally required financial reporting framework for the consolidated accounts of EU-listed groups of companies. IFRS differs in some respects from the UK financial reporting standards (UK GAAP).

The impact on the national balance sheet is difficult to assess as the impact of the transition to IFRS varies by company. Our work provided little evidence that material differences would occur as a result of the transition. On this basis, the transition to IFRS should not prevent time series analysis of the national balance sheet dataset.