Our official estimates have not changed and these are the ones we advise to be used, see Table 2a in the dataset accompanying our bulletin.
The table of daily incidence estimates are generated from using a modelled approach, which means they are subject to change as we state in our published bulletins; we therefore recommend using these to understand the trend, not for individual point in time estimation.
The modelled estimates published in October were supported by another ONS source and in particular the growth in the positivity rate during September and October.
All our evidence, including positivity rates, which are still over 0.9%, show the pandemic was at a peak at the time of the Prime Minister's announcement on 31 October 2020 on restrictions.
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