Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 12 March 2021

• The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 12 March 2021 (Week 10) was 10,987; this was 605 fewer deaths than the previous week (Week 9).
• In Week 10, the number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 4.4% below the five-year average (511 fewer deaths); this is the first time that deaths have fallen below the five-year average since the week ending 4 September 2020.
• Of the deaths registered in Week 10 in England and Wales, 1,501 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, a decrease of 604 deaths compared with Week 9.
• In Week 10, deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for 13.7% of all deaths in England and Wales, compared with 18.2% in Week 9.
• Of the 1,501 deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 10 in England and Wales, 1,197 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (79.7%).
• Of the 1,957 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 299 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (15.3%).
• In England, the total number of registered deaths decreased from 10,882 (Week 9) to 10,277 (Week 10), which was the first time deaths have fallen below the five-year average (4.4% below) since the week ending 4 September 2020; total deaths have decreased in all English regions except the North East.
• In Week 10, the number of deaths registered involving COVID-19 decreased in all English regions compared with Week 9, with the East of England recording the largest decrease of 95 deaths.
• In Wales, the total number of deaths registered decreased from 689 (Week 9) to 685 (Week 10); this was lower than the five-year average for the second consecutive week (720 deaths).
• In Wales, the number of deaths registered involving COVID-19 decreased from 103 (Week 9) to 68 (Week 10).
• We estimate that the number of deaths actually occurring (rather than registered) in Week 10 in England and Wales was between 9,625 and 11,911.
• The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 12 March 2021 was 12,465, which was 605 fewer than the five-year average; of deaths registered in the UK in Week 10, 1,637 deaths involved COVID-19, that is, 643 lower than in Week 9.

Figure 1: The number of deaths registered was below the five-year average for Week 10 in both England and Wales

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 12 March 2021

Notes:

1. Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.
2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
4. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 was affected by the early May, late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.
5. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.
6. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales decreased from 11,592 in Week 9 (week ending 5 March 2021) to 10,987 in Week 10 (week ending 12 March 2021). The number of deaths was 4.4% below the five-year average (511 deaths fewer).

In England, the number of deaths decreased from 10,882 in Week 9 to 10,277 in Week 10, which was 468 deaths (4.4%) fewer than the Week 10 five-year average (Figure 1). This is the first time that deaths have been lower than the five-year average in England since the week ending 4 September 2020 (Week 36).

In Wales, the number of deaths decreased from 689 in Week 9 to 685 in Week 10, which was 35 deaths (4.9%) fewer than the Week 10 five-year average (Figure 1). This is the second consecutive week deaths have been lower than the five-year average in Wales.

Figure 2: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased in Week 10

Deaths involving and due to COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia, England and Wales, deaths registered in 2020 and 2021

Notes:

1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1, U07.2, U09.9 and U10.9) and Influenza and Pneumonia (J09 to J18).
5. A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Deaths where both were mentioned have been counted in both categories.
6. We use the term "due to COVID-19" or "due to Influenza and Pneumonia" when referring only to deaths where that illness was recorded as the underlying cause of death. We use the term "involving COVID-19" or "involving Influenza and Pneumonia" when referring to deaths that had that illness mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not.
7. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 was affected by the early May, late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.
8. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.
9. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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The number of death registrations in England and Wales involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) decreased from 2,105 in Week 9 to 1,501 in Week 10 – a 28.7% decrease. Of all deaths registered in Week 10, 13.7% mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate.

In England, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 10 was 1,428, accounting for 13.9% of all deaths compared with 18.3% in Week 9.

In Wales, there were 68 deaths involving COVID-19, accounting for 9.9% of all deaths compared with 14.9% in Week 9.

Of the 1,501 deaths in England and Wales that involved COVID-19, 1,197 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (79.7%, Figure 2). Of the 1,957 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 299 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (15.3%).

Deaths that involved both COVID-19, and Influenza and Pneumonia have been included in both categories for consistency when comparing with the underlying cause of death. Influenza and Pneumonia has been included for comparison, as a well-understood cause of death involving respiratory infection that is likely to have somewhat similar risk factors to COVID-19. More detailed analysis is available in our Deaths due to coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia release.

We have developed an experimental statistical model to estimate the number of deaths that actually occurred in a given week, rather than the number registered. For Week 10, we estimate that 10,657 deaths occurred in England and Wales, with a 95% confidence interval of 9,625 to 11,911. This is 547 fewer deaths than the mean for the period 2015 to 2019 in Week 10, and an increase of 219 from the Week 9 2021 estimate of 10,438 (10,142 to 10,803).

These are provisional estimates that assume the pattern of occurrences can be predicted based on experience in previous years. The estimate for the most recent week always has a wider margin of error than for earlier weeks, so it should be treated with caution.

Figure 3: Deaths from all causes were below the five-year average in Week 10

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 12 March 2021

Notes:

1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are as available in the measuring the data section.
5. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 was affected by the Early May, Late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the Early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.
6. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.
7. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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Analysis in this section includes deaths from Week 11 of 2020 (week ending 13 March 2020, the week of the first registration of a death involving COVID-19) through to Week 10 of 2021 (week ending 12 March 2021), to ensure full coverage of the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths from the week ending 13 March 2020 up to 12 March 2021 was 651,310 in England and Wales. Of the deaths registered by 12 March 2021, 135,808 (20.9%) mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. During this period, the number of excess deaths above the five-year average was 120,181 deaths.

In England, the number of deaths between the week ending 13 March 2020 and 12 March 2021 was 611,043 and of these, 127,911 deaths (20.9%) mentioned COVID-19. This was 114,734 deaths above the five-year average.

In Wales, the number of deaths was 39,454 and of these, 7,717 deaths (19.6%) mentioned COVID-19. This was 6,123 deaths above the five-year average.

In Week 10 (week ending 12 March 2021), the number of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in England and Wales decreased in most age groups compared with Week 9. The biggest decrease was seen in those aged 90 years and over (145 fewer deaths). The majority (63.3%) of deaths involving COVID-19 were in people aged 75 years and over, however the proportion has been decreasing.

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic (up to week ending 12 March 2021), 54.3% of all deaths involving COVID-19 have been in males (Figure 4). There have been more deaths in females aged 85 years and over (30,962) than males aged 85 years and over (25,820). However, these numbers do not account for the population structure where there are more women aged 85 years and over than men.

Figure 4: The majority of deaths involving COVID-19 have been in people aged 75 years and over

Number of deaths involving COVID-19 by sex and age group, England and Wales, registered between 28 December 2019 and 12 March 2021

Notes:

1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the measuring the data section.
5. Individual weeks may not sum to the year-to-date analysis as previous weeks have been recalculated to have the most up-to-date figures.
6. Does not include deaths where age is either missing or not yet fully coded.

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Figure 5: The number of deaths in Week 10 was lower than the five-year average in Wales and in the majority of the English regions

Number of deaths in Wales and regions in England, registered between 28 December 2019 and 12 March 2021

Notes:

1. Based on area of usual residence. Geographical boundaries are based on the most up-to-date information available at the time of publication.
2. Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.
3. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
4. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
5. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the measuring the data section.
6. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 was affected by the Early May, Late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the Early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.
7. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.
8. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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In Week 10 (week ending 12 March 2021), the total number of deaths registered was lower than the five-year average in every English region apart from the East Midlands (Figure 5). The largest decrease on the five-year average was in the South West (8.4% lower).

Across the English regions, the South East had the largest number of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), with 235 deaths. The English regions with the highest proportions of deaths involving COVID-19 were London (17.1%) and the East Midlands (16.2%).

Deaths involving COVID-19 decreased in all regions, with the East of England reporting the largest decrease (95 fewer deaths). This is the sixth consecutive week in which all English regions recorded a decrease. More detailed geographic analysis can be found in our Monthly mortality analysis release.

In Week 10, there were 68 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in Wales – a 34.0% decrease compared with Week 9 (103 deaths).

Of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in 2020 and up to Week 10 (week ending 12 March 2021), 69.1% (93,834 deaths) occurred in hospitals, with the remainder occurring in care homes (31,533 deaths), private homes (7,473), hospices (1,998), other communal establishments (491) and elsewhere (479).

Between Weeks 9 and 10, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased in hospitals (391 fewer), care homes (134 fewer), private homes (62 fewer), hospices (17 fewer) and other communal establishments (1 fewer).

Deaths involving COVID-19 in hospitals as a proportion of all deaths in hospitals fell to 22.5% in Week 10 (28.2% in Week 9). Deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes accounted for 12.5% of deaths, a decrease from Week 9 (17.4%).

Detailed analysis on deaths of care home residents is available in Deaths involving COVID-19 in the care sector, England and Wales: deaths occurring up to 12 June 2020 and registered up to 20 June 2020.

From Week 1 2021 (week ending 8 January 2021) onwards, we have published a dataset of weekly deaths of care home residents. The term “care home resident” used in this dataset refers to all deaths where either the death occurred in a care home, or the death occurred elsewhere but the place of residence of the deceased was recorded as a care home. The figures should not be confused with “deaths in care homes” as reported within this bulletin, which refers only to the first category.

As well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, the Care Quality Commission (CQC) provides numbers of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes in England that are based on the date the death was notified to the CQC. From 10 April 2020 (the first day when data were collected using the CQC's new method of identifying deaths involving COVID-19) to 19 March 2021, there were 28,810 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19. Of these deaths, 97 were notified in the week up to 19 March 2021. More information on the data provided by the CQC can be found in our joint transparency statement.

In Wales, the Welsh Government publishes the number of deaths of care home residents involving COVID-19 notified to the Care Inspectorate Wales (CIW). Between 1 March 2020 and 12 March 2021, there were 1,911 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19.

More information on how these numbers have compared throughout the pandemic can be found in our previous Comparison of weekly death occurrences in England and Wales release.

Figure 6: Deaths in Week 10 were above the five-year average in private homes, but below the five-year average in hospitals, care homes and other settings

Number of excess deaths by place of occurrence, England and Wales, registered between 7 March 2020 and 12 March 2021

Notes:

1. Based on area of usual residence. Geographical boundaries and communal establishments are based on the most up-to-date information available.
2. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
3. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
4. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
5. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the measuring the data section.
6. "Other" includes deaths in communal establishments other than hospitals and care homes, in hospices, and that occurred "elsewhere". More information on the place of death definitions used is available in the accompanying dataset.
7. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.
8. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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In Week 10, the number of deaths in private homes was 30.0% above the five-year average (792 excess deaths). Deaths in care homes, hospitals and other settings were below the five-year average. Deaths within care homes were 23.3% below the five-year average (608 deaths fewer), deaths in hospital were 11.7% below the five-year average (635 deaths fewer) and deaths in other settings were 7.5% below the five-year average (63 deaths fewer).

Looking in more detail at deaths in private homes in Week 10, females accounted for 383 excess deaths compared with 409 for males. Overall, 69.8% of the excess deaths in private homes were of those aged 70 years and over (553 excess deaths); this proportion has decreased from 72.3% (675 excess deaths) in Week 9.

The Deaths in private homes release provides analysis for deaths registered from 28 December 2019 to 11 September 2020. In addition, more detailed analysis of excess deaths in England is produced by Public Health England (PHE) on a weekly basis.

Figure 7 is based on date of death for deaths registered up to 20 March 2021, rather than date of registration. As more deaths are registered, deaths per day are likely to increase, especially for later dates. Looking at the number of deaths that occurred in Week 10, 76.9% of deaths occurred in hospitals, and care homes accounted for 16.0% of all deaths involving COVID-19; this may change as more deaths are registered.

The earliest known death involving COVID-19 occurred in the week ending 31 January 2020 (Week 5).

Across the UK, there were 12,465 deaths (all causes) registered in Week 10 (week ending 12 March 2021), which was 605 deaths fewer than the UK five-year average, and 649 fewer deaths than in Week 9 (week ending 5 March 2021).

Deaths in all four countries of the UK were below the five-year average in Week 10.

Of these deaths, 1,637 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19), 643 fewer deaths than in Week 9 (28.2% decrease) (Figure 8).

In Week 10, England had the highest number of deaths involving COVID-19 with 1,428 deaths, followed by Scotland with 104 deaths, Wales with 68 deaths and Northern Ireland with 32 deaths.

We previously published this section as a separate article, which provided a more thorough description of the differences between different data sources. This section will look at the number of deaths by date of death produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) compared with death notifications reported on the GOV.UK dashboard. For Wales, we can also compare the data by date of death released by Public Health Wales (PHW).

On 12 August 2020, Public Health England (PHE) revised their data series to include two measures: deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. More information on these changes can be found in their technical summary.

In England, including deaths that occurred up to 12 March 2021 but were registered up to 20 March 2021, of those we have processed so far, the number involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) was 128,507.

The comparative number reported on GOV.UK (based on data from PHE) where the deaths occurred within 28 days of testing was 110,416 for deaths based on date of notification, and the number of deaths by date of death showed 110,591.

In Wales, including deaths that occurred up to 12 March 2021 but were registered up to 20 March 2021, of those we have processed so far, the number involving COVID-19 was 7,731.

The comparative number of deaths reported on GOV.UK (based on data from PHW) where the death occurred within 28 days of testing was 5,442 for deaths based on date of notification, and the number of deaths by date of death was 5,460.

Try the new way to filter and download these data:

• Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales by age and sex: COVID-19
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• Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death
• Death registrations and occurrences by health board and place of death

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths are those deaths registered in England and Wales in the stated week where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required. Definitions of COVID-19 for deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland are similar to England and Wales.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Mortality statistics in England and Wales QMI.

To meet user needs, we publish very timely but provisional counts of death registrations in England and Wales in our Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset. These are presented by sex, age group and regions (within England) as well as for Wales as a whole. To allow time for registration and processing, these figures are published 11 days after the week ends. Because of the rapidly changing situation, in this bulletin we have also given provisional updated totals for death occurrences based on the latest available death registrations, up to 20 March 2021.

Because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, our regular weekly deaths release now provides a separate breakdown of the number of deaths involving COVID-19: that is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions. If a death certificate mentions COVID-19, it will not always be the main cause of death but may be a contributory factor. This bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic.

The data for 2020 are based on a 53-week year. Because the number of days in a week is seven, when there are 52 weeks, we only cover 364 days of the 365 days in the year, which results in one remaining day each calendar year not included in the 52 weeks. With the occurrence of leap years, it is sometimes necessary to add a 53rd week to the end of the calendar, which was the case in 2020. This happens every five years, with the last time there was a Week 53 being in 2015. Given the low frequency of Week 53, it is more appropriate to compare the 2020 figures with the average for Week 52, than to compare it with a single year from five years previous. Therefore, the five-year average used in this bulletin for 2020 is the same as the five-year average used for Week 52.

From the bulletin dated 3 November 2020, we have added two additional analyses.

Previously, we gave a breakdown of deaths involving COVID-19 into those where COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death (“due to COVID-19”) and those where it was a contributory factor (“involving COVID-19”) in the monthly mortality analysis; because of high public interest, this distinction is now shown in Figure 2 of the weekly bulletin.

This bulletin is based mainly on the date deaths are registered, not the date of death, because of the time taken for a death to be registered. Deaths in England and Wales are normally registered within five days, but there can be a considerably longer delay in some circumstances, particularly when the death is referred to a coroner.

We have developed a statistical model to estimate the number of deaths likely to have occurred in each week, based on previous experience of the pattern of registration delays, including the effects of bank holidays. The method is described in the article Predicting total weekly death occurrences in England and Wales: methodology and the results are shown in the tab, “Estimated total deaths 2020”, of the accompanying dataset.

These figures are different from the daily surveillance figures on COVID-19 deaths published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on the GOV.UK website, for the UK as a whole and its constituent countries. Figures in this report are derived from the formal process of death registration and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of COVID-19, for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms but no test for the virus was conducted.

From 29 April 2020, the DHSC started to publish as their daily announced figures on deaths from COVID-19 for the UK a new series that uses improved data for England produced by Public Health England (PHE). These figures provide a count of all deaths where a positive test for COVID-19 has been confirmed, wherever that death has taken place – a change from previously reporting only confirmed COVID-19 deaths in hospitals.

Figures for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had already begun to include deaths outside hospitals, so this change ensured that the UK-wide series had a shared and common definitional coverage. A statement was published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which provides more detail of the changes.

On 12 August 2020, the PHE data series was revised to include two measures: deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. More information on these changes can be found in their technical summary (PDF, 854KB).

In contrast to the GOV.UK figures, we include only deaths registered in England and Wales, which is the legal remit of the ONS. Tables 2 and 3 provide an overview of the differences in definitions between sources.

From the week ending 26 February 2021 (Week 8), new International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes for COVID-19 issued by the World Health Organization (WHO) have been implemented for deaths involving COVID-19. The new codes are U09.9 (Post-COVID condition, where the acute COVID had ended before the condition immediately causing death occurred) and U10.9 (Multisystem inflammatory syndrome associated with COVID-19 (also called Kawasaki-like syndrome), a specific, uncommon effect of COVID-19 in children). These are in addition to the existing codes of U07.1 (COVID-19, virus identified) and U07.2 (COVID-19, virus not identified, that is, COVID-19 stated to be unconfirmed or suspected).

We will publish accompanying articles periodically, giving enhanced information such as age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for recent time periods and breakdowns of deaths involving COVID-19 by associated pre-existing health conditions.

There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.

Our User guide to mortality statistics provides further information on data quality, legislation and procedures relating to mortality and includes a glossary of terms.

Figures are based on the date the death was registered, not when it occurred. There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.