Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 19 March 2021

• The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 19 March 2021 (Week 11) was 10,311; this was 676 fewer deaths than the previous week (Week 10).
• In Week 11, the number of deaths registered in England and Wales was 8.0% below the five-year average (894 fewer deaths); this is the second consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average.
• Of the deaths registered in Week 11 in England and Wales, 963 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, a decrease of 538 deaths compared with Week 10.
• In Week 11, deaths involving COVID-19 accounted for 9.3% of all deaths in England and Wales, compared with 13.7% in Week 10.
• Of the 963 deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 11 in England and Wales, 740 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (76.8%).
• Of the 1,617 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 293 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (18.1%).
• In England, the total number of registered deaths decreased from 10,277 (Week 10) to 9,673 (Week 11), which was the second consecutive week that deaths in England were below the five-year average (7.4% below); deaths in Wales and all English regions were below the five-year average.
• In Week 11, the number of deaths registered involving COVID-19 decreased in all English regions compared with Week 10, with the South East recording the largest decrease of 96 deaths.
• In Wales, the total number of deaths registered decreased from 685 (Week 10) to 621 (Week 11); this was the third consecutive week that deaths were below the five-year average (14.6% below).
• In Wales, the number of deaths registered involving COVID-19 decreased from 68 (Week 10) to 49 (Week 11).
• We estimate that the number of deaths actually occurring (rather than registered) in Week 11 in England and Wales was between 8,805 and 10,835.
• The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 19 March 2021 was 11,666, which was 1,005 fewer than the five-year average; of deaths registered in the UK in Week 11, 1,043 deaths involved COVID-19, 594 lower than in Week 10.

Figure 1: The number of deaths registered was below the five-year average for Week 11 in both England and Wales

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 19 March 2021

Notes:

1. Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.
2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
4. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 was affected by the early May, late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.
5. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.
6. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales decreased from 10,987 in Week 10 (week ending 12 March 2021) to 10,311 in Week 11 (week ending 19 March 2021). The number of deaths was 8.0% below the five-year average (894 deaths fewer).

In England, the number of deaths decreased from 10,277 in Week 10 to 9,673 in Week 11, which was 774 deaths (7.4%) fewer than the Week 11 five-year average (Figure 1). This is the second consecutive week that deaths have been lower than the five-year average in England.

In Wales, the number of deaths decreased from 685 in Week 10 to 621 in Week 11, which was 106 deaths (14.6%) fewer than the Week 11 five-year average (Figure 1). This is the third consecutive week that deaths have been lower than the five-year average in Wales.

Figure 2: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased in Week 11

Deaths involving and due to COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia, England and Wales, deaths registered in 2020 and 2021

Notes:

1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1, U07.2, U09.9 and U10.9) and Influenza and Pneumonia (J09 to J18).
5. A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Deaths where both were mentioned have been counted in both categories.
6. We use the term "due to COVID-19" or "due to Influenza and Pneumonia" when referring only to deaths where that illness was recorded as the underlying cause of death. We use the term "involving COVID-19" or "involving Influenza and Pneumonia" when referring to deaths that had that illness mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not.
7. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 was affected by the early May, late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.
8. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.
9. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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The number of death registrations in England and Wales involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) decreased from 1,501 in Week 10 to 963 in Week 11 – a 35.8% decrease. Of all deaths registered in Week 11, 9.3% mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate.

In England, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 11 was 912, accounting for 9.4% of all deaths compared with 13.9% in Week 10.

In Wales, there were 49 deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 11, accounting for 7.9% of all deaths compared with 9.9% in Week 10.

Of the 963 deaths in England and Wales that involved COVID-19, 740 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (76.8%, Figure 2). Of the 1,617 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 293 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (18.1%).

Deaths that involved both COVID-19, and Influenza and Pneumonia have been included in both categories for consistency when comparing with the underlying cause of death. Influenza and Pneumonia has been included for comparison, as a well-understood cause of death involving respiratory infection that is likely to have somewhat similar risk factors to COVID-19. More detailed analysis is available in our Deaths due to coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia release.

We have developed an experimental statistical model to estimate the number of deaths that actually occurred in a given week, rather than the number registered. For Week 11, we estimate that 9,721 deaths occurred in England and Wales, with a 95% confidence interval of 8,805 to 10,835. This is 1,150 fewer deaths than the mean for the period 2015 to 2019 in Week 11, and a decrease of 587 from the Week 10 2021 estimate of 10,308 (10,022 to 10,661).

These are provisional estimates that assume the pattern of occurrences can be predicted based on experience in previous years. The estimate for the most recent week always has a wider margin of error than for earlier weeks, so it should be treated with caution.

Figure 3: Deaths from all causes were below the five-year average in Week 11

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 19 March 2021

Notes:

1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are as available in the measuring the data section.
5. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 was affected by the Early May, Late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the Early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.
6. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.
7. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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Analysis in this section includes deaths from Week 11 of 2020 (week ending 13 March 2020, the week of the first registration of a death involving COVID-19) through to Week 11 of 2021 (week ending 19 March 2021), to ensure full coverage of the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Using the most up-to-date data we have available, the number of deaths from the week ending 13 March 2020 up to 19 March 2021 was 661,608 in England and Wales. Of the deaths registered by 19 March 2021, 136,830 (20.7%) mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate. During this period, the number of excess deaths above the five-year average was 119,274 deaths.

In England, the number of deaths between the week ending 13 March 2020 and 19 March 2021 was 620,728 and of these, 128,886 deaths (20.8%) mentioned COVID-19. This was 113,972 deaths above the five-year average.

In Wales during the same period, the number of deaths was 40,075 and of these, 7,764 deaths (19.4%) mentioned COVID-19. This was 6,017 deaths above the five-year average.

In Week 11 (week ending 19 March 2021), the number of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in England and Wales decreased in most age groups compared with Week 10. The biggest decrease was seen in those aged 85 to 89 years (107 fewer deaths). The majority (61.8%) of deaths involving COVID-19 were in people aged 75 years and over, however, the proportion has been decreasing.

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic (up to week ending 19 March 2021), 54.3% of all deaths involving COVID-19 have been in males (Figure 4). There have been more deaths in females aged 85 years and over (31,165) than males aged 85 years and over (25,972). However, these numbers do not account for the population structure where there are more women aged 85 years and over than men.

Figure 4: The majority of deaths involving COVID-19 have been in people aged 75 years and over

Number of deaths involving COVID-19 by sex and age group, England and Wales, registered between 28 December 2019 and 19 March 2021

Notes:

1. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
2. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
3. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
4. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the measuring the data section.
5. Individual weeks may not sum to the year-to-date analysis as previous weeks have been recalculated to have the most up-to-date figures.
6. Does not include deaths where age is either missing or not yet fully coded.

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Figure 5: The number of deaths in Week 11 was lower than the five-year average in Wales and all of the English regions

Number of deaths in Wales and regions in England, registered between 28 December 2019 and 19 March 2021

Notes:

1. Based on area of usual residence. Geographical boundaries are based on the most up-to-date information available at the time of publication.
2. Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.
3. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
4. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
5. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the measuring the data section.
6. The number of deaths registered in 2020 Weeks 19, 20, 22, 23, 36, 37, 52 and 53 and in Week 1 2021 was affected by the Early May, Late May, August, Christmas and New Year Bank Holidays (Friday 8 May 2020, Monday 25 May 2020, Monday 31 August 2020, Friday 25 December 2020, Monday 28 December 2020, Friday 1 January 2021); the impact of the Early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin.
7. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.
8. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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In Week 11 (week ending 19 March 2021), the total number of deaths registered was lower than the five-year average in every English region and in Wales (Figure 5). The largest decreases on the five-year average were in Wales (14.6% lower) and the East of England (14.5% lower).

Across the English regions, both the South East and North West had the largest numbers of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), with 139 deaths each. The English region with the highest proportion of deaths involving COVID-19 was London, where 12.6% of deaths from all causes involved COVID-19.

Deaths involving COVID-19 decreased in all regions, with the South East reporting the largest decrease (96 fewer deaths). This is the seventh consecutive week in which all English regions recorded a decrease. More detailed geographic analysis can be found in our Monthly mortality analysis release.

In Week 11, there were 49 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in Wales – a 27.9% decrease compared with Week 10 (68 deaths).

Of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in 2020 and up to Week 11 (week ending 19 March 2021), 69.1% (94,570 deaths) occurred in hospitals, with the remainder occurring in care homes (31,685 deaths), private homes (7,575), hospices (2,018), other communal establishments (495) and elsewhere (487).

Between Weeks 10 and 11, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased in hospitals (390 fewer), care homes (98 fewer), private homes (39 fewer), hospices (11 fewer) and other communal establishments (1 fewer).

Deaths involving COVID-19 in hospitals as a proportion of all deaths in hospitals fell to 15.6% in Week 11 (22.5% in Week 10). Deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes accounted for 8.2% of deaths, a decrease from Week 10 (12.5%).

Detailed analysis on deaths of care home residents is available in Deaths involving COVID-19 in the care sector, England and Wales: deaths occurring up to 12 June 2020 and registered up to 20 June 2020.

From Week 1 2021 (week ending 8 January 2021) onwards, we have published a dataset of weekly deaths of care home residents. The term “care home resident” used in this dataset refers to all deaths where either the death occurred in a care home, or the death occurred elsewhere but the place of residence of the deceased was recorded as a care home. The figures should not be confused with “deaths in care homes” as reported within this bulletin, which refers only to the first category.

As well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, the Care Quality Commission (CQC) provides numbers of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes in England that are based on the date the death was notified to the CQC. From 10 April 2020 (the first day when data were collected using the CQC's new method of identifying deaths involving COVID-19) to 19 March 2021, there were 28,904 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19. Of these deaths, 92 were notified in the week up to 26 March 2021. More information on the data provided by the CQC can be found in our joint transparency statement.

In Wales, the Welsh Government publishes the number of deaths of care home residents involving COVID-19 notified to the Care Inspectorate Wales (CIW). Between 1 March 2020 and 12 March 2021, there were 1,911 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19.

More information on how these numbers have compared throughout the pandemic can be found in our previous Comparison of weekly death occurrences in England and Wales release.

Figure 6: Deaths in Week 11 were above the five-year average in private homes, but below the five-year average in hospitals, care homes and other settings

Number of excess deaths by place of occurrence, England and Wales, registered between 7 March 2020 and 19 March 2021

Notes:

1. Based on area of usual residence. Geographical boundaries and communal establishments are based on the most up-to-date information available.
2. Figures include deaths of non-residents.
3. Based on date a death was registered rather than occurred.
4. All figures for 2020 and 2021 are provisional.
5. The International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition (ICD-10) definitions are available in the measuring the data section.
6. "Other" includes deaths in communal establishments other than hospitals and care homes, in hospices, and that occurred "elsewhere". More information on the place of death definitions used is available in the accompanying dataset.
7. The Week 52 five-year average is used to compare against Week 53 deaths.
8. The five-year average has been provided for 2015 to 2019 (rather than 2016 to 2020) because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on deaths registered in 2020. The average for 2015 to 2019 provides a comparison of the number of deaths expected per week in a usual (non-pandemic) year.

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In Week 11, the number of deaths in private homes was 27.7% above the five-year average (715 excess deaths). Deaths in care homes, hospitals and other settings were below the five-year average. Deaths within care homes were 27.3% below the five-year average (692 deaths fewer), deaths in hospitals were 16.6% below the five-year average (877 deaths fewer) and deaths in other settings were 4.9% below the five-year average (40 deaths fewer).

Looking in more detail at deaths in private homes in Week 11, females accounted for 299 excess deaths compared with 416 for males. Overall, 76.3% of the excess deaths in private homes were of those aged 70 years and over (545 excess deaths); this proportion has increased from 69.8% (553 excess deaths) in Week 10.

The Deaths in private homes release provides analysis for deaths registered from 28 December 2019 to 12 September 2020. In addition, more detailed analysis of excess deaths in England is produced by Public Health England (PHE) on a weekly basis.

Figure 7 is based on date of death for deaths registered up to 27 March 2021, rather than date of registration. As more deaths are registered, deaths per day are likely to increase, especially for later dates. Looking at the number of deaths that occurred in Week 11, 74.1% of deaths occurred in hospitals, and care homes accounted for 16.4% of all deaths involving COVID-19; this may change as more deaths are registered.

The earliest known death involving COVID-19 occurred in the week ending 31 January 2020 (Week 5).

Across the UK, there were 11,666 deaths (all causes) registered in Week 11 (week ending 19 March 2021), which was 1,005 deaths fewer than the UK five-year average, and 805 fewer deaths than in Week 10 (week ending 12 March 2021).

Deaths in all four countries of the UK were below the five-year average in Week 11 for the second consecutive week.

Of these deaths, 1,043 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19), 594 fewer deaths than in Week 10 (36.3% decrease) (Figure 8).

In Week 11, England had the highest number of deaths involving COVID-19 with 912 deaths, followed by Scotland with 65 deaths, Wales with 49 deaths and Northern Ireland with 15 deaths.

We previously published this section as a separate article, which provided a more thorough description of the differences between different data sources. This section will look at the number of deaths by date of death produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) compared with death notifications reported on the GOV.UK dashboard. For Wales, we can also compare the data by date of death released by Public Health Wales (PHW).

On 12 August 2020, Public Health England (PHE) revised their data series to include two measures: deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. More information on these changes can be found in their technical summary.

In England, including deaths that occurred up to 19 March 2021 but were registered up to 27 March 2021, of those we have processed so far, the number involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) was 129,377.

The comparative number reported on GOV.UK (based on data from PHE) where the deaths occurred within 28 days of testing was 110,985 for deaths based on date of notification, and the number of deaths by date of death showed 111,109.

In Wales, including deaths that occurred up to 19 March 2021 but were registered up to 27 March 2021, of those we have processed so far, the number involving COVID-19 was 7,779.

The comparative number of deaths reported on GOV.UK (based on data from PHW) where the death occurred within 28 days of testing was 5,482 for deaths based on date of notification, and the number of deaths by date of death was 5,495.

Try the new way to filter and download these data:

• Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales by age and sex: COVID-19
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• Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and place of death
• Death registrations and occurrences by health board and place of death

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths are those deaths registered in England and Wales in the stated week where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required. Definitions of COVID-19 for deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland are similar to England and Wales.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Mortality statistics in England and Wales QMI.

To meet user needs, we publish very timely but provisional counts of death registrations in England and Wales in our Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset. These are presented by sex, age group and regions (within England) as well as for Wales as a whole. To allow time for registration and processing, these figures are published 11 days after the week ends. Because of the rapidly changing situation, in this bulletin we have also given provisional updated totals for death occurrences based on the latest available death registrations, up to 27 March 2021.

Because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, our regular weekly deaths release now provides a separate breakdown of the number of deaths involving COVID-19: that is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions. If a death certificate mentions COVID-19, it will not always be the main cause of death but may be a contributory factor. This bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic.

The data for 2020 are based on a 53-week year. Because the number of days in a week is seven, when there are 52 weeks, we only cover 364 days of the 365 days in the year, which results in one remaining day each calendar year not included in the 52 weeks. With the occurrence of leap years, it is sometimes necessary to add a 53rd week to the end of the calendar, which was the case in 2020. This happens every five years, with the last time there was a Week 53 being in 2015. Given the low frequency of Week 53, it is more appropriate to compare the 2020 figures with the average for Week 52, than to compare it with a single year from five years previous. Therefore, the five-year average used in this bulletin for 2020 is the same as the five-year average used for Week 52.

From the bulletin dated 3 November 2020, we have added two additional analyses.

Previously, we gave a breakdown of deaths involving COVID-19 into those where COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death (“due to COVID-19”) and those where it was a contributory factor (“involving COVID-19”) in the monthly mortality analysis; because of high public interest, this distinction is now shown in Figure 2 of the weekly bulletin.

This bulletin is based mainly on the date deaths are registered, not the date of death, because of the time taken for a death to be registered. Deaths in England and Wales are normally registered within five days, but there can be a considerably longer delay in some circumstances, particularly when the death is referred to a coroner.

We have developed a statistical model to estimate the number of deaths likely to have occurred in each week, based on previous experience of the pattern of registration delays, including the effects of bank holidays. The method is described in the article Predicting total weekly death occurrences in England and Wales: methodology and the results are shown in the tab, “Estimated total deaths 2020”, of the accompanying dataset.

These figures are different from the daily surveillance figures on COVID-19 deaths published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on the GOV.UK website, for the UK as a whole and its constituent countries. Figures in this report are derived from the formal process of death registration and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of COVID-19, for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms but no test for the virus was conducted.

From 29 April 2020, the DHSC started to publish as their daily announced figures on deaths from COVID-19 for the UK a new series that uses improved data for England produced by Public Health England (PHE). These figures provide a count of all deaths where a positive test for COVID-19 has been confirmed, wherever that death has taken place – a change from previously reporting only confirmed COVID-19 deaths in hospitals.

Figures for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had already begun to include deaths outside hospitals, so this change ensured that the UK-wide series had a shared and common definitional coverage. A statement was published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which provides more detail of the changes.

On 12 August 2020, the PHE data series was revised to include two measures: deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. More information on these changes can be found in their technical summary (PDF, 854KB).

In contrast to the GOV.UK figures, we include only deaths registered in England and Wales, which is the legal remit of the ONS. Tables 2 and 3 provide an overview of the differences in definitions between sources.

From the week ending 26 February 2021 (Week 8), new International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes for COVID-19 issued by the World Health Organization (WHO) have been implemented for deaths involving COVID-19. The new codes are U09.9 (Post-COVID condition, where the acute COVID had ended before the condition immediately causing death occurred) and U10.9 (Multisystem inflammatory syndrome associated with COVID-19 (also called Kawasaki-like syndrome), a specific, uncommon effect of COVID-19 in children). These are in addition to the existing codes of U07.1 (COVID-19, virus identified) and U07.2 (COVID-19, virus not identified, that is, COVID-19 stated to be unconfirmed or suspected).

We will publish accompanying articles periodically, giving enhanced information such as age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for recent time periods and breakdowns of deaths involving COVID-19 by associated pre-existing health conditions.

There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.

Our User guide to mortality statistics provides further information on data quality, legislation and procedures relating to mortality and includes a glossary of terms.

Figures are based on the date the death was registered, not when it occurred. There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.