Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 2 October 2020

• The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 2 October 2020 (Week 40) was 9,945; this was 311 more deaths than in Week 39.

• In Week 40, the number of deaths registered was 4.1% above the five-year average (390 deaths higher).

• Of the deaths registered in Week 40, 321 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 3.2% of all deaths in England and Wales; this is an increase compared with Week 39 (when there were 215 deaths involving COVID-19, accounting for 2.2% of all deaths).

• The numbers of deaths in hospitals and care homes remained below the five-year average in Week 40 (233 and 81 fewer deaths respectively), while the number of deaths in private homes remained above the five-year average (725 more deaths).

• The number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in seven of the nine English regions; the South West was the only English region to have lower overall deaths than the five-year average.

• In Wales, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased from 12 deaths (Week 39) to 25 deaths (Week 40), while the total number of deaths in Week 40 was 84 deaths higher than the five-year average.

• The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 2 October 2020 (Week 40) was 11,444, which was 591 deaths higher than the five-year average and 583 deaths higher than Week 39; of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 40, 343 deaths involved COVID-19, 109 deaths higher than Week 39.

Figure 1: Deaths in England and Wales involving COVID-19 increased for the fourth consecutive week

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 2 October 2020

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales increased from 9,634 in Week 39 (week ending 25 September 2020) to 9,945 in Week 40 (week ending 2 October 2020) (Figure 1). The number of deaths was 4.1% above the five-year average (390 deaths higher).

The number of death registrations in England and Wales involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) increased from 215 in Week 39 to 321 in Week 40 (a 49.3% increase). Of all deaths registered in Week 40, 3.2% mentioned COVID-19 (compared with 2.2% in Week 39).

In England, the number of deaths increased from 9,005 in Week 39 to 9,257 in Week 40, which was 315 deaths above the Week 40 five-year average. Of the Week 40 deaths, 3.2% (296 deaths) involved COVID-19 in England.

In Wales, the number of deaths increased from 617 in Week 39 to 671 in Week 40, which was 84 deaths higher than the five-year average. Of these, 3.7% (25 deaths) involved COVID-19.

In Week 40, in England and Wales, 14.8% of all deaths mentioned “Influenza and Pneumonia”, COVID-19 or both, compared with 14.4% in Week 39. “Influenza and Pneumonia” has been included for comparison, as a well-understood cause of death involving respiratory infection that is likely to have somewhat similar risk factors to COVID-19. More detailed analysis is available in our deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with deaths from influenza and pneumonia release.

Figure 2: Deaths not involving COVID-19 remained above the five-year average

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 2 October 2020

Between Weeks 1 and 12, 138,916 deaths were registered, which was 4,822 fewer than the five-year average for these weeks. However, between Weeks 13 and 40, 324,832 deaths were registered, which was 59,132 more than the five-year average.

Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 2 October 2020 was 463,720, which is 54,282 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 2 October, 53,187 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate, 11.5% of all deaths in England and Wales.

Looking at the year-to-date for England and Wales separately, the number of deaths for England was 435,257, which is 52,665 (13.8%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 50,501 (11.6%) mentioned COVID-19. In Wales, the number of deaths up to 2 October 2020 was 27,785, which is 2,133 (8.3%) more than the five-year average; of these, 2,612 deaths (9.4%) mentioned COVID-19.

In Week 40, the number of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in England and Wales stayed the same or increased across all age groups compared with Week 39 (except in ages 50 to 54 years, which decreased by five deaths). The biggest increase was seen in those 80 to 84 years (22 more deaths). The number of deaths involving COVID-19 remained higher in the older age groups, with those aged 80 years and over accounting for the highest number of deaths involving COVID-19 (56.7%).

Looking at the year-to-date, for most age groups there have been more deaths involving COVID-19 in males than in females (Figure 3). Across Weeks 1 to 40 of 2020, 55.1% of all deaths involving COVID-19 were in males. However, there were more deaths in females aged 85 years and over (12,120) than males aged 85 years and over (10,304). This could be because the over-85-years female population (939,000) is larger than the over-85-years male population (564,000) in England and Wales.

Figure 4: The number of deaths in Week 40 increased in Wales and most of the English regions

Number of deaths in Wales and regions in England, registered between 28 December 2019 and 2 October 2020

In Week 40 (week ending 2 October 2020), there were 25 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) registered in Wales (compared with 12 deaths in Week 39). Out of the English regions, the North West had the largest number of deaths involving COVID-19 (106 deaths) and the highest proportion of deaths involving COVID-19 (8.1%). Deaths involving COVID-19 increased in Week 40 (compared with Week 39) across seven of the nine English regions, with the largest increase seen in the North West (46 more deaths). The West Midlands and the South West were the only regions to have fewer deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 40 than in Week 39 (two and five deaths fewer, respectively). More detailed geographic analysis between 1 March and 31 July 2020 can be found in our Deaths involving COVID-19 by local area and socioeconomic deprivation release.

The number of deaths registered in Week 40 was higher than the five-year average in all English regions except for the South West, which was below the five-year average (4.5% lower), and the North West, which was the same as the five-year average. In Wales, the number of deaths registered in Week 40 was 14.3% (84 deaths) above the five-year average (Table 1).

The year-to-date analysis shows that, of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) up to Week 40 (week ending 2 October 2020), 63.5% (33,819 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in care homes (15,646 deaths), private homes (2,533 deaths), hospices (758 deaths), other communal establishments (228 deaths) and elsewhere (203 deaths).

Between Weeks 39 and 40, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 increased in hospitals (90 deaths higher), care homes (8 deaths higher), private homes (9 deaths higher) and other communal establishments (1 death higher), while deaths in hospices decreased (2 fewer deaths). Deaths involving COVID-19 in hospitals as a proportion of all deaths in hospitals increased from 4.1% in Week 39 to 6.1% in Week 40. Deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes as a proportion of all deaths in care homes increased from 2.0% in Week 39 to 2.3% in Week 40. Detailed analysis on deaths of care home residents is available in Deaths involving COVID-19 in the care sector, England and Wales: deaths occurring up to 12 June 2020 and registered up to 20 June 2020.

As well as Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, the Care Quality Commission (CQC) provides numbers of deaths involving COVID-19 in care homes in England that are based on the date the death was notified to the CQC. From 10 April (the first day when data were collected using the CQC’s new method of identifying deaths involving COVID-19) to 2 October 2020, there were 14,355 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19. Of these deaths, 61 were notified in the week up to 2 October. More information on the data provided by the CQC can be found in our joint transparency statement.

In Wales, the Welsh Government publishes the number of deaths of care home residents involving COVID-19 notified to the Care Inspectorate Wales (CIW). Between 1 March and 25 September 2020, there were 745 deaths of residents in care homes involving COVID-19.

More information on how these numbers have compared throughout the pandemic can be found in our previous Comparison of weekly death occurrences in England and Wales release.

Figure 5: Deaths in private homes remained above the five-year average in Week 40

Number of excess deaths by place of occurrence, England and Wales, registered between 7 March and 2 October 2020

In Week 40, deaths in hospitals, care home and other locations were below the five-year average (233, 81 and 22 fewer deaths respectively), while the number of deaths in private homes was 725 deaths above the five-year average (Figure 5).

Looking in more detail at deaths in private homes in Week 40, males and females accounted for similar numbers of excess deaths (367 and 357 deaths respectively). Overall, 80.2% of the excess deaths in private homes were those aged 70 years and over (581 excess deaths). More detailed analysis of excess deaths in England is produced by Public Health England (PHE) on a weekly basis.

Figure 6 is based on date of death for deaths registered up to 10 October 2020, rather than date of registration. This means as more deaths are registered, deaths per day are likely to increase, especially for later dates. Looking at the number of deaths involving COVID-19 that occurred in Week 40, 82.0% of deaths occurred in hospitals, and care homes accounted for 12.9% of all deaths involving COVID-19; this may change as more deaths are registered.

A death of a man aged 80 to 84 years was registered in the week ending 4 September 2020 (Week 36) that occurred in the week ending 31 January 2020 (Week 5). This is the earliest known death involving COVID-19 in the UK. There was also a death of a man aged 55 to 59 years registered in the week ending 21 August 2020 (Week 34) that occurred in the week ending 7 February (Week 6).

Across the UK, there were 11,444 deaths (all causes) registered in Week 40 (week ending 2 October 2020), which was 591 deaths higher than the UK five-year average and 583 deaths higher than Week 39. Of these deaths, 343 involved the coronavirus (COVID-19), 109 deaths higher than in Week 39 (a 46.6% increase).

In Week 40, England had the highest number of deaths involving COVID-19 with 296 deaths, followed by Wales with 25 deaths, Scotland with 20 deaths and Northern Ireland with 2 deaths.

We previously published this section as a separate article on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website, which provided a more thorough description of the differences between different data sources. This section will look at the number of deaths by date of death produced by the ONS compared with death notifications reported by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC). For Wales, we can also compare the reconciled DHSC data by date of death released by Public Health Wales (PHW).

On 12 August 2020, Public Health England (PHE) revised their data series to include two measures: deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. More information on these changes can be found in their technical summary.

In England, including deaths that occurred up to 2 October 2020 but were registered up to 10 October 2020, of those we have processed so far, the number involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) was 50,642. The comparative number of death notifications reported by the DHSC on GOV.UK where the deaths occurred within 28 days of testing was 37,574 and the number of deaths by date of death showed 37,652; the comparative number of death notifications where the deaths occurred within 60 days of testing was 41,650 and the number of deaths by date of death showed 41,732.

In Wales, including deaths that occurred up to 2 October 2020 but were registered up to 10 October 2020, of those we have processed so far, the number involving COVID-19 was 2,619; the comparative number of death notifications reported by the DHSC on GOV.UK where the death occurred within 28 days of testing was 1,630 and PHW numbers, which come from the same source as the DHSC figures but are continuously updated, showed 1,634 deaths.  

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Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths are those deaths registered in England and Wales in the stated week where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required. Definitions of COVID-19 for deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland are similar to England and Wales.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Mortality statistics in England and Wales QMI.

To meet user needs, we publish very timely but provisional counts of death registrations in England and Wales in our Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset. These are presented by sex, age group and regions (within England) as well as for Wales as a whole. To allow time for registration and processing, these figures are published 11 days after the week ends. Because of the rapidly changing situation, in this bulletin we have also given provisional updated totals based on the latest available death registrations, up to 10 October 2020.

Because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, our regular weekly deaths release now provides a separate breakdown of the number of deaths involving COVID-19: that is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions. If a death certificate mentions COVID-19, it will not always be the main cause of death but may be a contributory factor. This bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic.

These figures are different from the daily surveillance figures on COVID-19 deaths published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on the GOV.UK website, for the UK as a whole and its constituent countries. Figures in this report are derived from the formal process of death registration and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of COVID-19, for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms but no test for the virus was conducted.

From 29 April 2020, the DHSC started to publish as their daily announced figures on deaths from COVID-19 for the UK a new series that uses improved data for England produced by Public Health England (PHE). These figures provide a count of all deaths where a positive test for COVID-19 has been confirmed, wherever that death has taken place, a change from previously reporting only confirmed COVID-19 deaths in hospitals. Figures for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland had already begun to include deaths outside hospitals, so this change ensured that the UK-wide series had a shared and common definitional coverage. A statement was published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which provides more detail of the changes.

On 12 August 2020, the PHE data series was revised to include two measures: deaths of positively tested individuals where the death occurred within 28 days and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. More information on these changes can be found in their technical summary (PDF, 854KB).

In contrast to the GOV.UK figures, we include only deaths registered in England and Wales, which is the legal remit of the ONS. Tables 2 and 3 provide an overview of the differences in definitions between sources.

We will publish accompanying articles periodically, giving enhanced information such as age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for recent time periods and breakdowns of deaths involving COVID-19 by associated pre-existing health conditions.

There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.

Our User guide to mortality statistics provides further information on data quality, legislation and procedures relating to mortality and includes a glossary of terms.

Figures are based on the date the death was registered, not when it occurred. There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our impact of registration delays release.