1. Main points
Overseas residents made 3.9 million visits to the UK in August 2017; this has increased by 5% when compared with August 2016.
UK residents made 8.9 million visits abroad in August 2017; this has decreased by 3% when compared with August 2016.
Overseas residents spent £2.8 billion on their visits to the UK in August 2017; this is an increase of 3% when compared with August 2016.
UK residents spent £6.2 billion on their visits abroad in August 2017, a 1% increase when compared with August 2016.
2. Things you need to know about this release
Estimates contained in this bulletin are produced from responses provided by international passengers arriving in and departing from the UK, sampled on our International Passenger Survey (IPS).
Responses to the survey are scaled up to represent all passengers using information on total international passenger traffic for the reporting period.
Estimates are based on interviews conducted when passengers end their visit. Any visits commencing in the reported month but not completed until later are not included in estimates for the reported month.
The reported spend for visits includes any spending associated (excluding fares) with the visit, which occur before, during or after the trip.
Parts of the bulletin refer to countries visited abroad. It should be noted that if a UK resident visited more than one country on a trip abroad, the country recorded as visited in this publication is the country that was visited for the longest period.
Estimates are subject to sampling error, and confidence intervals are provided to help you interpret the estimates (“Accuracy of IPS estimates” in the Quality and methodology section). Further guidance is available about the quality of overseas travel and tourism estimates.
Overseas travel and tourism monthly estimates are revised during the processing of the quarterly dataset and again during the processing of the annual dataset. This bulletin contains provisional overseas travel and tourism estimates to and from the UK for August 2017. Revised, final estimates for 2016 were published in Travel trends 2016 on 18 May 2017.
Back to table of contents3. What are the main trends in visits and spending?
UK residents consistently make more visits abroad than foreign residents make to the UK. The total amount spent by UK residents during visits abroad is also higher than the total spent by foreign residents visiting the UK. The numbers of visits and the amounts spent vary through the year, with more in the summer. This is the case both for UK residents and overseas residents. However, UK residents show a much sharper peak both in visits and spend during the month of August, which is traditionally the only complete month of the UK school summer holidays.
Figure 1: Overseas residents' visits to the UK and UK residents' visits abroad by month
August 2014 to August 2017
Source: International Passenger Survey – Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 1: Overseas residents' visits to the UK and UK residents' visits abroad by month
Image .csv .xls
Figure 2: Spending by overseas residents in the UK and spending by UK residents overseas by month
August 2014 to August 2017
Source: International Passenger Survey – Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 2: Spending by overseas residents in the UK and spending by UK residents overseas by month
Image .csv .xls4. Trends in visits to the UK by overseas residents
The figures used in the commentary in this section are sourced from the following monthly overseas travel and tourism datasets:
Table 1 – Overseas residents' visits to the UK by month
Table 2 – Purpose of overseas residents' visits to the UK by month
Table 5 – Earnings in the UK and expenditure abroad by month
The estimated number of visits to the UK by overseas residents in August 2017 was 3.9 million, which is an increase of 5% compared with August 2016. Overseas residents spent £2.8 billion in the UK in August 2017, an increase of 3% when compared with August 2016.
During the period June to August 2017 there were 11.5 million visits to the UK, which was 6% more than the corresponding period a year earlier. Holiday visits rose by 13% to 5.2 million for this period.
For the period June to August 2017, spending in the UK by overseas residents increased 4% on the previous year to £7.8 billion.
Table 1: Main visit and spending estimates for overseas residents' visits to the UK in 2017
Overseas residents' visits to UK | ||||||
Visits (thousands) | Percentage change from year earlier | Earnings (£ million) | Percentage change from year earlier | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non seasonally adjusted | ||||||
August 2017 | 3,930 | +5 | 2,800 | +3 | ||
June to August 2017 | 11,510 | +6 | 7,800 | +4 | ||
Year to date 2017 | 27,110 | +8 | 16,380 | +10 | ||
Latest 12 months | 39,650 | +8 | 24,010 | +7 | ||
Seasonally adjusted | ||||||
March | 3,500 | +14 | 2,100 | +19 | ||
April | 3,650 | +23 | 2,300 | +23 | ||
May | 3,100 | -2 | 2,050 | +10 | ||
June | 3,300 | +7 | 1,990 | +6 | ||
July | 3,290 | +6 | 1,990 | +4 | ||
August | 3,270 | +7 | 2,030 | +3 | ||
Source: International Passenger Survey - Office for National Statistics |
Download this table Table 1: Main visit and spending estimates for overseas residents' visits to the UK in 2017
.xls (28.2 kB)
Figure 3: Overseas residents' visits to the UK by month
August 2014 to August 2017
Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) – Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 3: Overseas residents' visits to the UK by month
Image .csv .xls5. Trends in overseas visits by UK residents (non-seasonally adjusted)
The figures used in the commentary in this section are sourced from the following monthly overseas travel and tourism datasets:
Table 3 – UK residents’ visits abroad by month
Table 4 – Purpose of UK residents' visits abroad by month
Table 5 – Earnings in the UK and expenditure abroad by month
The estimated number of visits abroad by UK residents in August 2017 was 8.9 million, a decrease of 3% when compared with August 2016. UK residents spent £6.2 billion during these visits, an increase of 1% when compared with August 2016.
During the period June to August 2017, there were 1% more visits abroad by UK residents compared with the corresponding period a year earlier, and they spent 5% more on these visits. Split by area of visit, the largest increase was visits to “Other EU” (countries that joined the European Union from 1 January 2004 onwards), which rose 12%. When looking at reason for visit, business visits increased by 4%, holiday visits grew by 1% and visits to friends and relatives increased by 3% from the same period the previous year.
Table 2: Main visit and spending estimates for UK residents' visits abroad in 2017
UK residents' visits abroad | ||||||
Visits (thousands) | Percentage change from year earlier | Expenditure (£ million) | Percentage change from year earlier | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non seasonally adjusted | ||||||
August 2017 | 8,910 | -3 | 6,150 | +1 | ||
June to August 2017 | 23,310 | +1 | 15,310 | +5 | ||
Year to date 2017 | 49,780 | +3 | 30,760 | +5 | ||
Latest 12 months | 72,400 | +5 | 45,180 | +9 | ||
Seasonally adjusted | ||||||
March | 6,080 | +7 | 3,880 | +15 | ||
April | 6,060 | +4 | 3,720 | -0 | ||
May | 5,810 | -1 | 3,370 | -3 | ||
June | 6,390 | +12 | 4,090 | +18 | ||
July | 5,810 | -2 | 3,610 | -2 | ||
August | 5,970 | -4 | 3,730 | +1 | ||
Source: International Passenger Survey - Office for National Statistics |
Download this table Table 2: Main visit and spending estimates for UK residents' visits abroad in 2017
.xls (28.2 kB)
Figure 4: UK residents' visits abroad by month
August 2014 to August 2017
Source: International Passenger Survey (IPS) – Office for National Statistics
Download this chart Figure 4: UK residents' visits abroad by month
Image .csv .xls7. Quality and methodology
The International Passenger Survey Quality and Methodology Information report contains important information on:
the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data
uses and users of the data
how the output was created
the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data
The International Passenger Survey Methodological Information outlines definitions and sample methodology.
Accuracy of IPS estimates
Figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in light of more accurate data on passenger figures becoming available at the end of each quarter, and additional passenger data obtained at the end of each year.
International Passenger Survey (IPS) monthly estimates are revised in line with the IPS revisions policy. The revisions policy is available in the IPS Quality and Methodology Information report, to assist you in the understanding of the cycle and frequency of data revisions. You are strongly advised to read this policy before using these data for research or policy-related purposes.
Planned revisions usually arise from the receipt of revised passenger traffic data. Unplanned revisions are made to correct errors to existing data, identified later in the quarterly and annual processing cycle. Those of significant magnitude will be highlighted and explained.
Revisions to published monthly IPS estimates can be expected at the following times in the normal overseas travel and tourism publication schedule:
monthly estimates for the current reference year will usually be revised and statistically benchmarked across the quarter, following the publication of the quarterly estimates which that month falls within
monthly and quarterly estimates for the current reference year will be revised in the survey year’s annual data release (Travel trends)
monthly estimates for the full calendar year will be statistically benchmarked as part of the annual data processing and the monthly estimates for the year will then be replaced in the monthly release, with the benchmarked estimate following publication of the annual report (Travel trends)
All other revisions will be regarded as unplanned and will be dealt with by non-standard releases. All revisions will be released in compliance with the same principles as other new information. Please refer to our guide to statistical revisions.
Seasonally adjusted figures are no longer shown in the main figures in the publication, but continue to be presented in the tables.
The estimates produced from the IPS are subject to sampling errors that occur because not every traveller to and from the UK is interviewed on the survey. Sampling errors are determined both by the sample design and by the sample size: generally speaking, the larger the sample supporting a particular estimate, the proportionately lower its sampling error. The survey sample size is approximately 20,000 per month. However, as the intensity of the sampling varies at each port, figures of a similar magnitude will not necessarily have the same percentage sampling error.
Accuracy of the estimates is expressed in terms of confidence intervals. The confidence interval is a range within which the true value of a proportion lies with known probability. For example, the 95% confidence interval represents the range into which there are 19 chances out of 20 that the true figure would fall had all passengers been sampled. This is obtained as plus or minus 1.96 multiplied by the standard error.
Table 3: Confidence intervals relating to overseas travel and tourism estimates in August 2017
August 2017 monthly estimates | Estimate | Relative 95% Confidence Interval (+/- % of the estimate) | |
---|---|---|---|
Visits to UK by overseas residents (thousands) | 3,930 | 6.6% | |
Earnings from visits to UK (£ million) | 2,800 | 9.1% | |
Visits abroad by UK residents (thousands) | 8,910 | 5.7% | |
Expenditure on visits abroad (£ million) | 6,150 | 10.2% | |
Source: International Passenger Survey - Office for National Statistics |
Download this table Table 3: Confidence intervals relating to overseas travel and tourism estimates in August 2017
.xls (26.6 kB)Confidence intervals for quarterly and annual estimates are provided in our relevant overseas travel and tourism publications.
One indication of the reliability of the main indicators in this release can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. Table 4 records the size and pattern of revisions to the quarterly IPS data that have occurred over the last five years to the following main seasonally adjusted estimates:
the number of visits by overseas residents to the UK (GMAT)
the number of visits abroad by UK residents (GMAX)
earnings made from overseas residents in the UK (GMAZ)
expenditure abroad by UK residents (GMBB)
Table 4: Revisions over the last five years to the International Passenger Survey data
Revisions between first publications and estimates three years later | |||
Value in the latest period (2017 quarter 1, January to March 2017) | Averages over the last five years (bias) | Average over the last five years without regard to sign (average absolute revision) | |
---|---|---|---|
GMAT | 10,050 | 24.50 | 101.50 |
GMAX | 18,270 | 195.00 | 266.00 |
GMAZ | 6,340 | *76.5 | *114.50 |
GMBB | 11,190 | *168.5 | *195.5 |
Source: International Passenger Survey - Office for National Statistics | |||
Notes: | |||
1. Units: GMAT and GMAX in thousands. | |||
2. A statistical test has been applied to find out if the revision to each key indicator is statistically different from zero. An asterisk (*) indicates where the mean revision has been significantly different from zero. |
Download this table Table 4: Revisions over the last five years to the International Passenger Survey data
.xls (25.6 kB)Note that estimates are subject to revision between the monthly statistical bulletin and the quarterly publication, and again when Travel trends is published. Revisions result from more accurate passenger figures being made available. More information about the IPS revisions policy is available in the Quality and Methodology Information report. The most up-to-date and accurate estimates for all published months can be found in the latest edition of the Overseas travel and tourism monthly statistical bulletin.
Note that, although data from the IPS feed into the calculation of migration statistics, the overseas travel and tourism publications do not provide any information relating to international migration.
Other analyses
For general questions about the IPS and requests for user-requested data analysis (a service governed by our income and charging policy), please get in touch using the contact details accompanying this release.
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