Overseas travel and tourism: Jan 2017

• Overseas residents made 2.9 million visits to the UK in January 2017; this is an increase of 11% when compared with January 2016.

• UK residents made 4.6 million visits abroad in January 2017; this has increased by 9% when compared with January 2016.

• Overseas residents spent £1.5 billion on their visits to the UK in January 2017; this is an increase of 15% when compared with January 2016.

• UK residents spent £2.6 billion on their visits abroad in January 2017, a 5% increase when compared with January 2016.

• In the 3 months to January 2017, overseas residents made 22% more visits to the UK for holidays than the same period a year ago.

• In the 3 months to January 2017, UK residents made 8% more holiday visits abroad than the same period a year ago.

Estimates contained in this bulletin are produced from responses provided by international passengers arriving in and departing from the UK, sampled on our International Passenger Survey (IPS).

Responses to the survey are scaled up to represent all passengers using information on total international passenger traffic for the reporting period.

Estimates are based on interviews conducted when passengers end their visit. Any visits commencing in the reported month but not completed until later are not included in estimates for the reported month.

The reported spend for visits include any spending associated (excluding fares) with the visit, which may occur before, during or after the trip.

Parts of the bulletin refer to countries visited abroad. It should be noted that if a UK resident visited more than 1 country on a trip abroad, the country recorded as visited in this publication is the country that was visited for the longest period.

Estimates are subject to sampling error, and confidence intervals are provided to help you interpret the estimates (see background note: Accuracy of IPS estimates). Further guidance is available about the quality of overseas travel and tourism estimates.

Overseas travel and tourism monthly estimates are revised during the processing of the quarterly dataset and again during the processing of the annual dataset. This bulletin contains provisional overseas travel and tourism estimates to and from the UK for January 2017. Revised, final estimates for 2015 were published in Travel trends 2015 on 20 May 2016.

UK residents consistently make more visits and spend more money abroad than foreign residents when travelling to the UK. The numbers of visits and the amounts spent vary through the year, with more in the summer. This is the case both for UK residents and overseas residents. However, UK residents show a much sharper peak in both visits and spend during the month of August which is traditionally the only complete month of the UK school summer holidays.

The figures used in the commentary below are sourced from the following monthly overseas travel and tourism reference tables:

• Table 1 – Overseas residents' visits to the UK by month.

• Table 2 – Purpose of overseas residents' visits to the UK by month.

• Table 5 – Earnings in the UK and expenditure abroad by month.

The number of visits to the UK by overseas residents in January 2017 was 2.9 million, an increase of 11% when compared with January 2016. Overseas residents spent £1.5 billion in the UK in January 2017, an increase of 15% when compared with January 2016.

During the period November 2016 to January 2017 the number of visits to the UK increased by 13% from 7.8 million to 8.8 million compared with the corresponding period a year earlier. Visits by residents of all areas of the world increased, with the smallest increase from Other Countries (countries other than Europe and North Americas), 9%, and the largest increase from North America, 19%. Holiday visits for this period rose by 22% largely driven by the increase in holiday visits during November 2016 when compared with November 2015.

For the period November 2016 to January 2017 spend in the UK by overseas residents increased 8% on the previous year to £5 billion.

The figures used in the commentary below are sourced from the following monthly overseas travel and tourism reference tables:

• Table 3 – UK residents’ visits abroad by month.

• Table 4 – Purpose of UK residents' visits abroad by month.

• Table 5 – Earnings in the UK and expenditure abroad by month.

The estimated number of visits abroad by UK residents in January 2017 was 4.6 million, an increase of 9% when compared with January 2016. UK residents spent £2.6 billion during these visits in January 2017, an increase of 5% when compared with January 2016.

In contrast to the trends observed for other areas of the world, there was a 17% decrease in visits to North America in January 2017 compared with January 2016.

During the period November 2016 to January 2017, UK residents’ visits abroad rose by 7% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier and they spent 11% more. Split by area of visit the largest increase was visits to Other EU countries (countries which joined the EU after January 2004) which rose 17%. When looking at reason for visit, business visits fell by 3% from the same period in the previous year but all other reasons for visit increased. The largest increase, 25%, was for miscellaneous visits, although the numbers were relatively small. This was largely driven by a greater number of people travelling abroad to watch sport during December 2016.

Travel trends: the latest publication (Travel trends 2015) was published on 20 May 2016, the next publication (Travel trends 2016) will be published in May 2017 – this provides final overseas travel and tourism estimates and more detailed analysis of visits and spending, including analysis by demographics, towns visited in the UK and countries visited by residents of different parts of the UK

Travelpac is a dataset that allows you to conduct your own analyses of quarterly and annual data on main variables – the datasets are provided in SPSS and Excel

Overseas travel and tourism quarterly: the latest publication (for Quarter 3 July to September 2016) was published on 19 January 2017 – this provides more detailed analysis of visits and spending, isolating aspects such as countries of visit, mode of travel used, nationality of visitors and regions of the UK visited; Quarter 4 (October to December 2016) figures will be found in Travel trends 2016

Overseas travel and tourism monthly: the latest publication (December 2016) was published on 17 February 2017 – this provides provisional results of visits to the UK by overseas residents, visits abroad by UK residents and spending by travellers, using provisional passenger traffic data.

Country definitions

In order to harmonise the International Passenger Survey (IPS) country definitions with other government departments some country groupings have been changed for 2017. These mainly effect the definition of European areas.

Before 2017, definition of the EU included the small countries of Monaco, San Merino, Andorra and the Vatican City. These are not members of the EU but do have an agreement with the countries they are contained within which are full members of the EU. These countries will now be defined as ‘Europe’.

From January 2017 countries that have historically been part of Europe for the IPS publication such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been moved to “Other Countries”. This is in line with the National Statistics Country Classifications (NSCC).

Graphs

From January 2017 seasonally adjusted graphs will be replaced with non-seasonally adjusted graphs to show the seasonal fluctuations in the data.

The International Passenger Survey Quality and Methodology Information document contains important information on:

• the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data

• uses and users of the data

• how the output was created

• the quality of the output including the accuracy of the data

The International Passenger Survey Methodological Information outlines definitions and sample methodology.

Accuracy of IPS estimates

Figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in light of (a) more accurate data on passenger figures becoming available at the end of each quarter and (b) additional passenger data obtained at the end of each year.

International Passenger Survey (IPS) monthly estimates are revised in line with the IPS revisions policy. The revisions policy is available in the IPS quality and methodology report, to assist you in the understanding of the cycle and frequency of data revisions. You are strongly advised to read this policy before using this data for research or policy-related purposes.

Planned revisions usually arise from either the receipt of revised passenger traffic data. Unplanned revisions are made to correct errors to existing data, identified later in the quarterly and annual processing cycle. Those of significant magnitude will be highlighted and explained.

Revisions to published monthly IPS estimates can be expected at the following times in the normal overseas travel and tourism publication schedule:

• monthly estimates for the current reference year will usually be revised and statistically benchmarked across the quarter, following the publication of the quarterly estimates which that month falls within

• monthly and quarterly estimates for the current reference year will be revised in the survey year’s annual data release (Travel trends)

• monthly estimates for the full calendar year will be statistically benchmarked as part of the annual data processing and the monthly estimates for the year will then be replaced in the monthly release, with the benchmarked estimate following publication of the annual report (Travel trends)

All other revisions will be regarded as unplanned and will be dealt with by non-standard releases. All revisions will be released in compliance with the same principles as other new information. Please refer to our guide to statistical revisions.

Seasonally adjusted figures are presented for the main figures in the publication. This aids interpretation by identifying seasonal patterns and calendar effects and removing them from the unadjusted data. The resulting figures give a more accurate indication of underlying movements in the series.

The estimates produced from the IPS are subject to sampling errors that occur because not every traveller to and from the UK is interviewed on the survey. Sampling errors are determined both by the sample design and by the sample size: generally speaking, the larger the sample supporting a particular estimate, the proportionately lower its sampling error. The survey sample size is approximately 20,000 per month. However, as the intensity of the sampling varies at each port, figures of a similar magnitude will not necessarily have the same percentage sampling error.

Accuracy of the estimates is expressed in terms of confidence intervals. The confidence interval is a range within which the true value of a proportion lies with known probability. For example, the 95% confidence interval represents the range into which there are 19 chances out of 20 that the true figure would fall had all passengers been sampled. This is obtained as plus or minus 1.96 the standard error.

Confidence intervals for quarterly and annual estimates are provided in our relevant overseas travel and tourism publications.

One indication of the reliability of the main indicators in this release can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. Table 4 records the size and pattern of revisions to the quarterly IPS data that have occurred over the last 5 years to the following main seasonally adjusted estimates:

• the number of visits by overseas residents to the UK (GMAT)

• the number of visits abroad by UK residents (GMAX)

• earnings made from overseas residents in the UK (GMAZ)

• expenditure abroad by UK residents (GMBB)

Note that estimates are subject to revision between the monthly statistical bulletin and the quarterly publication, and again when Travel trends is published. Revisions result from more accurate passenger figures being made available. More information about the IPS revisions policy is available in the Quality and Methodology Information report. The most up-to-date and accurate estimates for all published months can be found in the latest edition of the Overseas travel and tourism monthly statistical bulletin.

Note that, although data by the International Passenger Survey (IPS) feed into the calculation of migration statistics, the overseas travel and tourism publications do not provide any information relating to international migration.

Other analyses

For general questions about the IPS and requests for user-requested data analysis (a service governed by our Income and charging policy), please get in touch using the contact details accompanying this release.

Telephone: +44 (0)1633 455678

Email: socialsurveys@ons.gov.uk